HomeMy WebLinkAboutCAO-17-004 - Corporate Climate Action Plan - Phase 1
REPORT TO: Planning & Strategic Initiatives Committee
DATE OF MEETING: February 13, 2017
SUBMITTED BY: Laurie Majcher, Manager of Strategy & Business Planning,
519-741-2200 ext. 7817
PREPARED BY: Laurie Majcher, Manager of Strategy & Business Planning,
519-741-2200 ext. 7817
WARD (S) INVOLVED: All
DATE OF REPORT: January 31, 2017
REPORT NO.: CAO-17-004
SUBJECT:City of Kitchener Corporate Climate Action Plan – Phase 1
__________________________________________________________________________________________
RECOMMENDATION:
WHEREAS, scientific consensus has developed that carbon dioxide (CO) and other
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greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere have a profound effect on the Earth’s
climate; and
WHEREAS, the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) indicate that municipalities
directly and indirectly affect 44 per cent of Canada’s total greenhouse gas emissions
and therefore have an important role to play in mitigating this impact on the climate;
and
WHEREAS, local government actions taken to prepare for climate change impacts
provide multiple local benefits by building a more resilient economy, and by helping to
reduce the physical impacts and costs to people, property and resources associated
with a changing climate.
THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener adopt an 8 per cent corporate
GHG reduction target from 2016 emissions levels by the end of 2026, and staff be
directed to submit it for consideration to the Federation of Canadian Municipalities as
fulfillment of corporate milestone #2 of the Partners for Climate Protection Program;
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener make a commitment to climate
change adaptation planning through the five-milestone framework presented in ICLEI’s
Changing Climate, Changing Communities methodology; and
BE IT FINALLY RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener establishes the Corporate Climate
Action Plan Steering Committee, as set out in Appendix B of CAO report CAO-17-004, to
act as an advisory body to the Corporate Leadership Team and Council recommending
both mitigation and adaptation measures for the corporation that are practical,
affordable and appropriate.
*** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. ***
Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance.
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BACKGROUND:
On April 23, 2014, Council directed staff to prepare terms of reference for an integrated climate
action plan for the City of Kitchener that would address both corporate mitigation and
adaptation strategies, and report back to Council.
On November 16, 2015, Council approved the terms of reference for the Corporate Climate
Action Plan to be included on the 2016-2019 business plan, including the following principles:
continue to use the PCP framework to plan and manage the City’s progress on GHG
reductions; adopt the ICLEI climate change adaptation methodology to plan and manage the
City’s progress on climate change adaptation strategies exploring actions that meet both
mitigation and adaptation objectives; and explore opportunities to work collaboratively with the
Region of Waterloo, the City of Waterloo, the City of Cambridge and other community
stakeholders on the BARC program using the ICLEI BARC Program.
The approved terms of reference for the City of Kitchener corporate climate action plan
identifies the following key components that will be included for Council approval in 2018:
1. A vision for the City of Kitchener’s corporate climate action plan;
2. Mitigation and adaptation goals for the next 10 years, including a corporate greenhouse
gas reduction target for the City of Kitchener;
3. A list of priority mitigation and adaptation actions that will contribute to the City’s climate
action goals, including existing and new measures to be implemented;
4. A detailed implementation plan that includes: estimated costs, funding sources,
responsibilities, and timelines; and
5. A plan for monitoring the implementation status of mitigation and adaptation actions and
progress towards the corporate emissions reduction target.
This is the first of a series of three reports that will be presented to Council for approval leading
up to the presentation of a comprehensive Corporate Climate Action Plan for the City of
Kitchener in the spring of 2018.Each report represents the completion of one or more major
milestones in the planning process and will be submitted to the Federation of Canadian
Municipalities for recognition under the Partners for Climate Protection Program.
Although this project is specific to the city’s corporate operations, Kitchener is proud to be a
part of the ClimateActionWR collaboration that has championed the development of Waterloo
Region's first-ever community action plan on climate change. The City of Kitchener endorsed
the plan in 2013 and made a commitment to achieve a community greenhouse gas reduction
target of 6 per cent below 2010 levels by 2020.
The City of Kitchener is also participating in the development of a community climate
adaptation plan being led by the Region of Waterloo, collaborating with multiple stakeholders
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from across the Region to develop a comprehensive plan that addresses impacts from a
community perspective.
A diagram is included in Appendix A showing the interconnections between this plan and the
other initiatives that the City of Kitchener is actively engaged with related to climate change.
REPORT:
At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-
ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. The agreement sets out a global action plan
to put the world on track to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to less
CC
than 2° above pre-industrial levels and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°. The agreement
recognises the importance of averting, minimising and addressing loss and damage
associated with the adverse effects of climate change and it acknowledges the need to
cooperate and enhance the understanding, action and support in different areas such as early
warning systems, emergency preparedness and risk insurance.
Canada is among the 195 signatories to the international climate agreement, making a
commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 30 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. The Ontario
Climate Change Action Plan and cap and trade program form the backbone of the provincial
strategy to cut GHG emissions by 37 per cent from 1990 levels by 2030. The agreement
recognizes the role of cities in addressing climate change and invites them to scale up their
efforts and support actions to reduce emissions; build resilience and decrease vulnerability to
the adverse effects of climate change; and uphold and promote regional and international
cooperation.
Citizens have consistently told us that protecting the environment should be one of the top
three priorities for the City. The Environics survey results for 2013 indicates that 89 per cent of
citizens want the City to focus on reducing the environmental impact of City operations as a
high priority for this term of Council.
The City of Kitchener joined the Partners for Climate Protection program 20 years ago,
participating in a network of more than 280 local governments that are committed to acting on
climate change. Since that time, the City has implemented a number of important initiatives to
manage energy and reduce GHG emissions, including: construction of new LEED buildings;
solar roof at the Kitchener Operations Facility; LED lighting retrofits; building control systems;
upgrades to air conditioning and dehumidifiers; new insulation and waste heat recovery
systems; ISO 14001 certification for the fleet; electric golf carts; electric motorcycles for By-law
Enforcement; driver training and low carbon fuels for the fleet; and waste diversion programs in
City facilities.
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The City’s plan to continue to reduce corporate GHG emissions will only be achieved through
energy and waste management initiatives that are practical, affordable, and reasonable within
our organizational context. Every city has unique circumstances that create opportunities and
constraints on what can be achieved within a 10 year period related to: the age and condition
of City assets; the demand for new facilities and services; available resources and budget; and
the level of change readiness within the organization.
In 2015, the City of Kitchener buildings and operations produced 13,027 tonnes of carbon
dioxide equivalent (COe). Corporate GHG emissions are expected to increase as much as
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15% over the next 10 years to respond to growth pressures, with an annual GHG emissions of
15,000 tCOe by the end of 2026 based on a business as usual scenario.
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At this stage in the planning process it is clear that opportunities exist to reduce energy
consumption and GHG emissions over the next 10 years. A cursory evaluation of the potential
for GHG reductions in the City’s buildings, fleet, public lighting, pumping stations and waste
from operations suggests that an 8 per cent reduction in GHG emissions from 2016 levels
within 10 years is an achievable but ambitious target. A great deal of uncertainty remains
around specific strategies that could be implemented, the investment that would be required
and the potential results that can be achieved (Appendix B).
The proposed 8 per cent GHG emissions reduction target from 2016 levels by the end of 2026
needs to be viewed as a goalpost for the organization to motivate progress. The following
principles will be used to guide the development of the action plan to ensure that
recommendations for action are practical, affordable and reasonable for the City of Kitchener
over the next 10 years:
1. New investments in capital projects to reduce corporate GHG emissions will need to
achieve a payback period of 10 years or less;
2. Actions will be targeted at fully leveraging all available funding programs and incentives
from other orders of government provided there is alignment with our objectives and the
benefits exceed the cost of participation; and
3. Decisions to fund both capital and operating investments to achieve GHG reductions
will be made through the regular budget cycle and within the context of all other
competing priorities and the City’s financial policies.
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ALIGNMENT WITH CITY OF KITCHENER STRATEGIC PLAN:
Strategic Priority: Sustainable Environment and Infrastructure
Strategy: #4.3 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions and energy
consumption in all areas of city operations.
Strategic Action: SE4 Corporate Climate Action Plan
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS:
Available budget is the single largest factor determining how much corporate emissions can be
reduced. Implementing a corporate plan will involve new capital costs and, depending on its
ambition, potential additional staff resources. Without properly resourcing to the level of the
reduction target, action will be delayed or not implemented and the City will miss its targets.
The proposed Corporate Climate Action Plan that will be presented to Council in the spring of
2018 will include cost estimates and funding sources. Decisions to fund proposed operating
and/or capital investments to achieve GHG reductions will be made through the regular budget
cycle and within the context of all other competing priorities and the city’s financial policies.
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT:
INFORM – This report has been posted to the City’s website with the agenda in advance of the
council / committee meeting.
CONSULT – members of the Environmental Committee have been consulted on the
recommendation of this report on January 19, 2017. Following questions and answers, the
Environmental Committee endorsed the recommended 8 per cent corporate GHG emissions
reduction target for the next 10 years and they encourage the City of Kitchener to aspire to do
more than that in the long-term. The environmental committee will be kept informed of the
progress of this project and additional opportunities to engage the Environmental Committee
throughout the process will be explored as the project moves forward.
ACKNOWLEDGED BY: Jeff Willmer, CAO
Attachments:
Appendix A – City of Kitchener’s Role in Climate Change within the Region of Waterloo
Appendix B – Corporate Climate Action Plan – Phase 1
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CORPORATE CLIMATE
ACTION PLAN
EMISSIONS TARGETS AND
Phase 1
ADAPTATION COMMITMENT
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The City of Kitchener recognizes climate the completion of Milestone #1 of the ICLEI
change as a global issue that can be Adaptation Methodology with the initiation
addressed in part at the local level. The of the adaptation planning process.
City continues it leadership role in
The second report on the Corporate Climate
environmental sustainability practices
Action Plan, expected to be presented to
through the development of a Corporate
Council in September 2017, will include the
Climate Action Plan that integrates both
high level strategies for the proposed
mitigation and adaptation strategies into
Corporate Energy Management Plan and the
day-to-day operations.
results of the corporate climate change
While reducing the release of greenhouse vulnerability and risk assessments. This
gases remains our first priority, it is report, when approved by Council, will
apparent that some degree of climate provide clear direction on priorities to be
change has already begun. In developing included in the Corporate Climate Action
adaptation strategies, the City of Kitchener Plan and will result in the completion of
is taking steps to reduce negative impacts Milestone #2 of the ICLEI Adaptation
associated with the realities of a changing Methodology.
climate while proceeding with actions
The final report to Council, expected to be
designed to combat further change.
completed by March 2018, will include the
This is the first of a series of three reports proposed Corporate Climate Action Plan.
that will be presented to Council for The proposed plan will include: a list of
approval leading up to the presentation of a priority mitigation and adaptation actions; a
comprehensive Corporate Climate Action detailed implementation plan; and, a
Plan for the City of Kitchener early next process for monitoring and reporting on the
year. Each report represents the implementation status of the Action Plan,
completion of one or more major milestones and updating the plan regularly.
in the planning process and will be
Although this project is specific to the C
submitted to the Federation of Canadian
corporate operations, Kitchener is proud to
Municipalities for recognition under the
be a part of the ClimateActionWR
Partners for Climate Protection Program.
collaboration that has championed the
Over 280 local governments across Canada development of Waterloo Region's first-ever
have committed to achieving the five community action plan on climate change.
milestones for Partners for Climate The City of Kitchener endorsed the plan in
Protection (PCP) and more than 1,100 2013 and made a commitment to a
communities around the world have community greenhouse gas reduction target
international network of 6 per cent below 2010 levels by 2020.
of Cities for Climate Protection.
The City of Kitchener is also participating in
In 2013, the City of Kitchener was the development of a community climate
recognized by the Federation of Canadian adaptation plan for the Region of Waterloo,
Municipalities for completing Milestone #1 collaborating with multiple stakeholders to
of the PCP Program with the submission of develop a comprehensive plan that
the corporate GHG Inventory for 2010. addresses impacts across all sectors.
Once submitted, this report will result in the
- Setting
an emissions reduction target, as well as
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#®³¤³²
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change 1
1.2 The Paris Climate Accord and the Role of Cities 2
1.3 Partners for Climate Protection 2
1.4 Changing Climate Changing Communities 3
2 Corporate Greenhouse Gas Inventory 5
2.1 Background 5
2.2 Inventory Summary 6
2.3 Buildings 7
2.4 Vehicle Fleet 8
2.5 Outdoor Lighting 8
2.6 Wastewater Pumping Stations 9
2.7 Corporate Waste 9
2.8 GHG Emissions by Source 9
3 GHG Emissions Reduction Target 10
3.1 Background 10
3.2 Federal and Provincial GHG Emissions Reduction Targets 10
3.3 Methodology for Setting a GHG Emissions Reduction Target 11
3.4 Setting a Practical, Affordable and Reasonable Target 11
3.5 Recommended GHG Emissions Reduction Target 16
4 Planning to Adapt to Climate Change 18
4.1 Introduction 18
4.2 Corporate Adaptation Planning Scope of Work 19
4.3 Preliminary Climate Change Impacts 19
4.4 Assessing Adaptive Capacity and Identifying Risks 21
5 Commitment to Move Forward 22
5.1 Corporate Climate Action Plan Steering Committee 22
5.2 Proposed Council Resolution 23
APPENDIX Climate Change Issue Briefs 24
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1 Introduction
1.1 Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change
Much like the glass of a greenhouse, gases in our atmosphere sustain life on Earth by trapping
the sun's heat. These gases allow the sun's rays to pass through and warm the earth, but
prevent this warmth from escaping our atmosphere into space. Without naturally-occurring,
heat-trapping gases - mainly water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane - Earth would be too
cold to sustain life as we know it.
The danger lies in the rapid increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that
intensify this natural greenhouse effect. For thousands of years, the global carbon supply was
essentially stable as natural processes removed as much carbon as they released. Modern
human activity - burning fossil fuels, deforestation, intensive agriculture - has added huge
quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is
the main contributor to climate change, especially through the burning of fossil fuels. Today's
atmosphere contains 42 per cent more carbon dioxide than it did at the start of the industrial
era. Levels of methane and carbon dioxide are the highest they have been in nearly half a
million years.
Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glaciers have
shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and
trees are flowering sooner. Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result from
global climate change are now occurring: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer,
more intense heat waves. Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century
and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily
on the amount of heat-s climate is
to those emissions.
Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index
This graph illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
temperatures. The 10 warmest years in the
134-year record all have occurred since
2000, with the exception of 1998. The year
2016 ranks as the warmest on record.
(Source: NASA/GISS).
Localized climate projections for Waterloo
Region, prepared by the Interdisciplinary
Centre on Climate Change (IC3) and the
University of Waterloo, indicate that we can expect 40 per cent more freezing rain events by
2050; rainfall intensities are projected to increase with large-magnitude rainfall events expected
to occur more frequently, and more wind gust events are expected as both large-scale frontal
storms and local convective windstorms (i.e., damaging downdrafts) are projected to occur
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more frequently. The number of days with extreme heat is projected to more than triple to
1.2 The Paris Climate Accord and the Role of Cities
The Paris climate summit, known as COP 21, took place in November-December 2015. The
temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius. Canada is among the 191 signatories to the
international climate agreement, making a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by
30 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. The agreement took effect on November 4, 2016.
Cities were a significant actor in this process and now are positioned to play a key role in the
implementation of the Paris outcome. Over 400 mayors were present to call for a more direct
involvement in the negotiations, noting that any agreement resulting from COP21 would need
to be implemented at the local level, as well as to stress that cities can play a central and
fundamental role in defining and implementing innovative solutions to reduce the causes and
the effects of climate change both locally and globally.
on, consume two-
energy, and produce 70 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. And this trend will only
continue: by 2050, 66 per cent of the 10 billion people living on earth will be urban dwellers.
While rapid urbanization brings tremendous opportunities for growth and prosperity, it has also
posed unprecedented challenges to our citiesand the people who live in them. The Global
Commission on the Economy and Climate unequivocally showed that moving on to a low-carbon
climate-resilient pathway will deliver faster rises in living standards and more sustainable long-
term economic growth than the high-carbon alternative.
Cities can be instrumental in working with their citizens to build a shared vision for their
community that supports the agenda necessary to meet the targets in the Paris agreement,
building a shared understanding that local climate action increases the health, wellbeing and
more green
space, bike lanes and pedestrian zones; greater resilience to withstand extreme weather
events; and energy efficiencies that bring cost savings that can be channeled to meet other
societal needs. At the corporate level, cities have the opportunity to lead by example with
policies and practices that support the sustainability and resiliency of their operations.
1.3 Partners for Climate Protection
Launched in 1994, the Partners for Climate Protection (PCP) program is now a network of more
than 280 local governments that are committed to acting on climate change. The PCP program
is a partnership between the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) and ICLEI Local
Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI)ities for
Climate Protection (CCP) network, which involves more than 1,000 communities worldwide.
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The PCP program empowers municipalities to integrate climate change issues into their
decisions and to identify strategic opportunities to reduce emissions, improve quality of life and
grow local economies. PCP makes use of a framework consisting of 5 performance-focused
milestones to help members create GHG inventories, set realistic and achievable reduction
targets, develop and deliver local action plans, and measure their progress.
In 1997, the City of Kitchener became a member of the PCP Program. Kitchener has
implemented many initiatives since that time - both large and small to achieve reductions in
the production of greenhouse gases (GHG). Examples include: construction of new LEED
buildings; solar roof at the Kitchener Operations Facility; LED lighting retrofits; building control
systems; upgrades to air conditioning and dehumidifiers; new insulation and waste heat
recovery systems; ISO 14001 certification for the fleet; electric golf carts; electric motorcycles
for By-law Enforcement; driver training and low carbon fuels for the fleet; and waste diversion
programs in City facilities.
In 2013, the City of Kitchener was recognized by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities for
completing Milestone #1 of the PCP Program with the submission of the corporate GHG
Inventory for 2010. The next milestone for the City of Kitchener is to set a 10 year Corporate
GHG emissions reduction target.
Milestone #5
Milestone #1 Milestone #2 Milestone #3 Milestone #4
GHG Set GHG Develop Implement
Measure &
Emissions Reduction Climate Action Climate Action
Monitor
Inventory Target Plan Plan
setting a strategic direction and providing a starting point from which to track progress. In
many cases, municipalities will set multiple targets with increasing ambition over time. In 1989,
Toronto became the first municipality in the world to set a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction
population, have reached Milestone 2 of the Partners for Climate Protection (PCP) program by
adopting a GHG reduction target. Many others have set targets outside of the PCP program.
The PCP program reports annually on best practices with leading-edge examples of climate
change action planning development and implementation in municipalities of all sizes and
regions, including options and sources of innovative funding structures. PCP tools and
resources support municipalities throughout the process.
1.4 Changing Climate Changing Communities
Some additional degree of climate change is unavoidable and will have significant economic,
social and environmental impacts on Canadian communities, even after introducing significant
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measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To reduce the negative impacts of this
change and to take advantage of new opportunities presented, we will need to adapt.
Investments in community infrastructure, emergency planning and resource management
(urban forests, source water) are all based on expected variations in weather conditions, in
response to climate data collected over time. A changing climate means that expected patterns
of variability in the weather-temperature, precipitation, extreme storms and other events-no
longer apply. Under such conditions, infrastructure fails to performs as it should; new forest
pests can migrate and decimate local urban forests; frequent heat waves put vulnerable
populations at risk-and the list goes on. Local governments are left to deal with the social,
environmental and economic consequences of these changes to their communities, often at
high cost.
Timely adaptation can improve community resilience and reduce the severity of these effects
over time. As local governments are responsible for key service areas that will be a affected by
climate change: infrastructure, parks and recreation, health, and transportation, they are on the
front lines of preparing for climate change impacts and have a responsibility to respond through
strategic adaptation planning. Climate change may affect a broad range of municipal assets
and government services, operations and policy areas, and preparing for climate change is a
matter of risk management and good governance. Municipal governments may assist with the
safety, health and welfare of their communities both now and in the future.
Climate change awareness is strengthening the discussion into the prospects of what
municipalities may do to assist in reducing the possibilities of liability. It is important for
municipalities to review all possible aspects within their control to eliminate or reduce the
adverse effects of climate change which may affects those in the community. This can be
accomplished by reviewing their infrastructure against the adaptation plans to design for the
future while reviewing their current system.
Adaptation is the principal way to deal with the impacts of a changing climate. It involves taking
practical actions to manage risks from climate impacts, protect communities and strengthen the
resilience of the economy.
methodology changing climate, changing communities - provides a straightforward approach
to adaptation planning using a five-milestone framework similar to the PCP program. Each
milestone represents a fundamental step in the adaptation planning process, starting with the
initiation of adaptation efforts and culminating with a monitoring and review process that
analyzes the successes and reviews the challenges of the adaptation plan and its
implementation.
The City of Kitchener Climate Action Plan will integrate the ICLEI adaptation methodology with
the PCP framework to develop an action plan that includes both strategies to reduce the carbon
footprint of city operations and address the risks associated with the impacts of climate change.
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2 Corporate Greenhouse Gas Inventory
2.1 Background
The purpose of the corporate GHG inventory is to establish a baseline that can be used to set a
future GHG emissions reduction target, establish a data collection protocol to be used for
annual corporate GHG inventories going forward, and provide guidance for the development of
a corporate sustainability plan.
In 2013, the City of Kitchener developed a corporate GHG inventory for 2010 as part of its
ongoing commitment to provide leadership and sustainable municipal services for its community
and citizens. The inventory was submitted to FCM to meet the requirements of milestone #1
under the PCP program and set a baseline for setting a target for the future. Using the
information and tools that were available at the time, it was estimated that the corporate
emissions for the City of Kitchener in 2010 was 13,058 tonnes COe.
2
This 2015 Corporate GHG inventory was completed to gauge how the
and GHG emissions have changed in the past five years as context for setting a realistic and
achievable target. A number of changes were made to the model that was used to quantify the
energy consumption data has improved since 2010.
These are improvements that will carry forward in annual updates to the GHG inventory so that
change can be monitored more regularly. Additional improvements will need to be made to
GHG
inventory framework is similar but not directly comparable to the 2010 inventory, the city will
use 2016 data for establishing a baseline for corporate GHG emissions reductions.
The data for the 2015 corporate GHG inventory was obtained from monthly invoices for
electricity and natural gas, and comprehensive fuel consumption records for the corporate fleet
and golf courses. Business travel or personal vehicle usage on city business has not been
included in this inventory, but may be considered as part of the 2016 inventory update. All
records have been reviewed and verified for accuracy. Due to significant changes in the model
used to estimate COe from waste, 2015 waste generated from city operations was estimated at
2
the same level as reported for 2010 for the purposes of this inventory. A more comprehensive
review of data will be required next year and a more accurate estimate will be reported in the
2016 corporate GHG inventory.
Fuel consumption data was converted to energy (gigajoules) consumption and GHG emissions
(COe) using the conversion factors provided by the PCP online inventory tool. Greenhouse gas
2
(GHG) accounting quantifies carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions which are all
recognized as key contributors to climate change. GHG emissions measured in terms of
equivalent tonnes of CO are one of the most highly accepted and widely used environmental
2
impact measurements.
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Energy generated from the solar roof on the Kitchener Operations Facility, and any additional
solar arrays that the city may install, are important contributions to the provincial GHG
reduction targets by introducing renewable energy into the grid. THE PCP program does not
recognize the generation of renewable energy as an offset to corporate emissions in our GHG
Inventory if the energy is not directly used by city operations. However, the City should
continue to take advantage of opportunities to generate renewable energy as part of our
commitment to our community and provincial targets.
2.2 Inventory Summary
In 2015, the City of Kitchener spent approximately $7,860,000 on electricity, natural gas,
propane, gasoline and diesel/biodiesel for the operation of city facilities and the delivery of
services to the community. City of Kitchener buildings and operations consumed 300,666 GJ of
energy, and produced 13,027 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (COe) in 2015.
2
accounting for 64.9 per cent of total corporate energy consumption in 2015 and more than half
of all GHG emissions. While fleet energy consumption represents 18.9 per cent of total energy
consumption it accounts for more than 30 per cent of the total corporate GHG emissions
because COe emissions from the burning of gasoline and diesel fuel is approximately 4x higher
2
than for electricity.
The solid waste sector is the only sector in the inventory in which emissions are not calculated
based on burning fuel directly or indirectly in the generation of electricity. The Corporate Waste
sector only includes emissions associated with the decomposition of solid waste.
Table 2.1 Energy Consumption & GHG Emissions by Sector for 2015
Total Total
Energy Emissions
Sector % Total % Total
(GJ) Energy (t COe) Emissions
2
Buildings 195,248 64.9% 7,110 54.6%
Fleet 56,807 18.9% 4013 30.8%
Outdoor Lighting 42,202 14.1% 938 7.2%
Pumping Stations 6,409 2.1% 142 1.1%
*Waste --- --- 824 6.3%
TOTAL 300,666 100% 13,027 100%
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2.3 Buildings
City buildings account for more than half of all corporate GHG emissions. Buildings included in
the GHG Inventory include all City owned and operated buildings where the City has a
reasonable level of control or influence over the energy consumption in the building. The
inventory includes more than 50 City facilities, including: administrative offices, community
centres, parking garages, swimming pools, arenas, fire halls, golf courses, cemeteries, the
Kitchener Market and Kiwanis Park, as well as a variety of other small park buildings and
storage sheds.
Table 2.2 Top 15 City Buildings for GHG Emissions
Energy Emissions Carbon % Total
Intensity Buildings
Building (GJ) (t COe)
2
2
Emissions
(COe/m)
2
31,236 1,210 0.041 17.0%
1)Kitchener Operations Facility
33,420 1161 0.038 16.3%
2)The Auditorium
27,257 912 0.024 12.8%
3)City Hall Complex
12,250 419 0.066 5.9%
4)Sportsworld Arena
8,877 385 0.165 5.4%
5)Forest Heights Pool & Library
12,476 381 0.038 5.4%
6)Activa Sportsplex
8,743 371 0.091 5.2%
7)Breithaupt Pool & CC
8,344 302 0.021 4.3%
8)The Kitchener Market
6,919 294 0.129 4.1%
9)Lyll Hallman Pool
4,025 151 0.038 2.1%
10)Fire Headquarters
4,254 134 0.045 1.9%
11)Lions Arena
3,240 112 0.042 1.6%
12)Grand River Arena
2,605 100 0.030 1.4%
13)Rockway Golf Course & Club
House
2,690 86 0.033 1.2%
14)Don McLaren Arena
2,176 86 0.033 1.2%
15)Fire Hall #5 & Forest Heights
CC
TOTAL 168,512 6,104 n/a 85.8%
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The four City buildings with the highest GHG emissions - the Kitchener Operation Facility, the
Kitchener Memorial Auditorium Complex, City Hall Complex and Sportsworld Arena - account
for more than 50 per cent of all GHG emissions from City buildings. The top 15 City buildings
(listed above) account for more than 85 per cent of all emissions from City buildings and almost
half of the total corporate GHG emissions. Efforts to improve building energy efficiency would
have the greatest potential for reductions in these City facilities.
2.4 Vehicle Fleet
The fleet sector includes direct emissions from vehicles used by employees of the municipality
in the exercise of their duties. This includes fire trucks, golf course mowers, snowplows,
maintenance vehicles, and heavy equipment used for operations. In total 597 vehicles were
included in the inventory. More than half of the GHG emissions from fleet come from the C
173 heavy duty vehicles, plow trucks and fire truck. Approximately 30 per cent of the energy
used by the fleet comes from biodiesel, which produces 7.5 per cent less carbon emissions than
regular diesel.
Table 2.3 GHG Emissions from the Corporate Fleet
Total Energy Emissions Carbon % Fleet
Intensity Emissions
Vehicle Type (GJ) (t COe)
2
12,846 862 18.0 21.5%
Heavy Duty Plows
12,985 843 8.4 21.0%
Heavy Duty Vehicles
10,927 685 4.4 17.1%
Light Duty Vehicles
6,498 641 8.9 16.0%
Off Road Vehicles
5,809 411 9.9 10.2%
Fire Trucks
3,913 307 10.2 7.7%
Sweepers & Sidewalk
Vehicles
1,782 126 2.1 3.1%
Mower Equipment
2,046 138 4.6 3.4%
Other
TOTAL 56,807 4,013 n/a 100%
2.5 Outdoor Lighting
The lighting sector includes outdoor lighting sources such as overhead streetlights and traffic
signals on or along City roads, lighting in municipal surface parking lots, walkway lighting and
lighting in parks and for winter rinks. It should be noted that the City of Kitchener pays for 14
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traffic signals but has no control over the design or operation of them. Overall, outdoor lighting
consumed 42,202 GJ of energy in 2015 and generated 938 tonnes COe.
2
2.6 Wastewater Pumping Stations
Wastewater pumping stations include all sewage pumping stations that are managed and/or
operated by the City. Emissions calculated are primarily associated with stationary fuel pumps
and lift stations used to dispose of sewage from the community. Emissions related to
wastewater may be highly variable in local government operations inventories as they may be
influenced by the local topography, which may require the use of pump stations. Overall,
wastewater consumed 6,409 GJ of energy and produced 142 tonnes of COe in 2015.
2
2.7 Corporate Waste
Even though the City does not own or operate a solid waste disposal facility, it must still
account for the solid waste generated as a result of local government operations. In this case,
the Corporate Waste sector must include all employee-generated solid waste, as well as waste
generated at public facilities, such as community centers, parks or recreation buildings. Facilities
that have waste pick-up at the curb have not been included within this inventory as those
emissions would be included within the Community GHG Inventory.
It is estimated that corporate waste generated by the City in 2015 is responsible for 827 tonnes
of COe based on the 2010 waste inventory estimates. This number will be updated when a
2
comprehensive inventory of corporate waste is completed in 2017.
2.8 GHG Emissions by Source
The most significant source of the City in
City buildings and facilities, generating 39 per cent of total emissions at 5,080 COe tonnes.
2
Electricity was the biggest source of corporate GHG emissions in 2010 and has dropped from 36
per cent to 24 per cent in 2015. This is primarily due to changes in the composition of electric
generation in the province, and the elimination of the use of coal to generate electricity, not a
reduction in electricity use by the corporation.
Chart 2.1 GHG Emissions by Source for 2015
6%
Electricity
25%
19%
Natural Gas
Gasoline
11%
Diesel/Biodiesel
39%
Propane
Waste
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3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Target
3.1 Background
The 2015 population for the City of Kitchener was estimated at 239,900, and is forecast to grow
by 19 per cent within the next 10 years, representing 46,235 new residents. Growth will
require the City to build new facilities in developing areas, increase the size of the corporate
fleet and expand operations to maintain existing services levels for all citizens. Based on the
current carbon footprint of the organization and a business as usual scenario, the City could
expect corporate energy consumption and GHG emissions to increase as much as 15 per cent or
more over the next 10 years, with an estimated annual GHG emissions of 15,000 tonnes COe
2
by the end of 2026.
Growth pressures create difficult challenges when trying to achieve an absolute reduction in
GHG emissions. An absolute 8 per cent reduction from 2016 levels can require an overall 20
per cent reduction in energy intensity across the corporation as the operation expands.
Nevertheless, growth can also provide significant opportunities for positive change.
As new investments are made in the community they can be designed to take advantage of
best practices in energy efficiency and sustainable design. All new buildings will be significantly
more energy efficient than older buildings due to changes in the building code and the
implementation of LEED design features. Fleet vehicles will become more fuel efficient and
fuels will become cleaner over time.
The City of Kitchener has already made a commitment to the conversion of streetlights to LED
technology, which is expected to reduce GHG emissions by approximately 500 tonnes COe
2
when fully implemented. All of these changes, and many more that are expected to be realized
over the next ten years, will help to move the City
GHG emissions in the future.
3.2 Federal and Provincial GHG Emissions Reduction Targets
In 2013, Canada's GHG emissions were 3.1 per cent lower than 2005 levels while the economy
grew by 12.9 per cent over the same time period. Canada's per capita GHG emissions have
fallen to their lowest levels since tracking began while the economy has continued to grow.
Canada is among the 191 signatories to the international climate agreement, making a
commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. The
agreement came into force on November 4, 2016. The national plan to achieve GHG emissions
targets is currently being developed.
trade program form the backbone of the
provincial strategy to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 15 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020,
37 per cent by 2030 and 80 per cent by 2050. The government will report on the plan's
implementation annually and renew the plan every five years.
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3.3 Methodology for Setting a GHG Emissions Reduction Target
For PCP recognition of Milestone 2, there are three formal requirements:
1.The target must clearly state whether it is for community or corporate emissions
2.The target must be an overall GHG reduction target in the form - per cent reduction
from base year by target year
3.The target must be adopted by council resolution.
A top-down aspirational target for the corporation gives staff time to mobilize for action while
the plan is being developed. It
commitment to climate change and provides direction for staff in the decisions that they make
every day. It is not expected to be a prediction of what will happen, but a goal for what the
City is committed to making happen. It is meant to challenge the organization to look beyond
the obvious and explore innovative solutions that could deliver breakthrough results.
There is a great deal of uncertainty about the future that can make it difficult to set a target.
Technology continues to improve and innovations are constantly being released in renewable
energy generation and low carbon fuels, energy efficient building and vehicles, and carbon
capture from exhaust. It is expected, but not yet known, how much funding from federal and
provincial climate change programs will be available to cities to take advantage of emission
reduction opportunities when the cost may be prohibitive due to municipal budget constraints.
3.4 Setting a Practical, Affordable and Reasonable Target
The greenhouse gas reduction target forms the basis of a municipality's program objectives and
provides a starting point from which to track progress.
reduce GHG emissions will only be achieved through energy management initiatives that are
practical, affordable, and reasonable within our organizational context. Every city has unique
circumstances that create constraints on how much can be achieved within a ten-year period.
Before a target is developed, it is important to assess the current situation, which will affect the
and the state of municipal assets is one of the most important things to understand when
setting corporate targets. In most cases existing assets will produce the bulk of emissions for
many years to come. Consideration must be given to the following factors in setting a target:
1)The Age and Condition of City Assets
It may be possible to dramatically reduce energy consumption when older buildings and
vehicles are replaced with new ones. However the age and condition of assets determine
when they are replaced, and therefore how quickly efficiency can be improved. It may be
financially feasible to retrofit older buildings that are not ready to be replaced to increase
efficiency, but a strong business case is required that demonstrates a reasonable pay-back
period on the up-front capital improvements to justify making the necessary changes.
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2)Demand for new facilities and the expansion of City services
Expectations for service expansion, increases in service levels for existing services and the
introduction of new services over the next ten years will drive increases in corporate energy
consumption to meet the needs of a growing community. New facilities will increase emissions
unless an existing facility is being closed. To achieve an absolute reduction in emissions from
current levels will require the City to implement actions that more than off-set the impact of
growth related emissions.
3)Budget and resources
Available budget is the single largest factor determining how much corporate emissions can be
reduced. Implementing a corporate plan will involve new capital costs and, depending on its
ambition, potential additional staff resources. Without properly resourcing to the level of the
reduction target, action will be delayed or not implemented and the City will miss its targets.
From a lifecycle perspective, the savings from carbon and energy management can be very
cost-effective in some cases. However, a City that is reluctant to spend money on its assets is
unlikely to achieve an aggressive corporate reduction target. The Citypast practice of
attempting to maintain property tax rate increases at or below the rate of inflation will be a
considerable constraint on the potential for capital improvements and operating investments
that reduce corporate GHG emissions. In other words, it is unreasonable to expect that a
same time deliver a substantial new program. This is why, in other jurisdictions such as at the
Provincial level, entire new revenue streams such as carbon taxes, have been introduced to
fund climate change mitigation programs. While this is not an option for Kitchener, it
underscores the need to moderate program expectations if they are to be delivered within the
current financial framework.
4)Organizational Change Readiness
Cities that have been successful in making progress on aggressive targets have made energy
conservation a priority for Council and senior management decision making, and the
responsibility of every employee. Energy conservation and sustainability practices need to be
embedded in the culture of the organization to support behaviours that will drive results.
Leadership will be required to encourage the adoption of alternative work procedures and the
establishment of new corporate policies and practices that provide direction for day-to-day
decision making. A comprehensive change management program may be needed to build
awareness and commitment to making the required changes to the way works gets done
throughout the organization.
The following scenarios were considered in the process of selecting of an appropriate corporate
GHG emissions reduction target for the City of Kitchener:
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Table 3.2 GHG Emission Reduction Scenarios
GHG
Examples of
Estimated Financial
Reduction
Impacts
Potential Actions
Target
Energy audits
New capital investments which
HVAC equipment upgrades or retrofits
can be funded with
Routine equipment maintenance
short/medium term payback
Lighting retrofits for all Cityfacilities
Moderate
periodthrough reduced
New LEED buildings
(4-8%)
operating expenditures
LED streetlight conversion
Incremental increases in
2
Electric cars in fleet whencost effective
3000 tCOe
expenditures on low carbon
Anti-idling enforcement
annually
options for fleet and waste
Fleet route optimization
by 2026
diversion processes over time
Right-sizing vehicles
with no payback.
Driver training and accountability
Actively leverage infrastructure
Green procurement policy
grants and other funding
Recycling programs for all Cityfacilities
programs to finance efficiency
Employee suggestions and problem
upgrades.
solving
Moderate pressure on the tax
rate to fund new costs.
In addition to all of the above:
Building envelope upgrades/retrofitsNewcapital investments with
long term payback period
Challenging
Aggressive HVAC retrofits
(9-15%)
Premium paid for low-carbon
rating
optionswith no pay-back
2
4000 tCOe
Increased operating costs for
facilities
annually
new staff resources to initiate
Establish an Energy Information System
by 2026
and manage new programs
Departmental Energy Management
Seek out/advocate for new
Teams
funding options/revenue streams
for low carboninitiatives
New solar and wind energy projects
Deferral of growth-related
Corporatechange management
projects in the DC Reserve
program
due to higher costs to
Convert tolow carbon fuel for fleet
construct new facilities
(biodiesel, propane, natural gas)
Pressure to issue debt to fund
Recyclingfor all public spaces & events
capital
Curb travel on Citybusiness
Increased pressure onthe tax
Invest in tree planting/carbon capture
rateto fund increasingcosts
technologies
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GHG
Examples of
Estimated Financial
Reduction
Impacts
Potential Actions
Target
In addition to all of the above:
New geothermal and heat recovery Significant new capital
technologyinvestments in high risk
Aggressive
investments with no
(16% - 30%)
payback period
2
Aggressive solar and wind power
6000 tCOe
Significant new investments
installations to serve Cityoperations
in staff positions to seek out
annually
and evaluate innovative
by 2026
Experiment with new low emissions
technology
technology before proven
Increased debtoutside of
Premature replacement of vehicles/
the existing debt
facilities/equipment to achieve energy
philosophy
efficiency
Increased property taxes
Invest in heavy duty electric vehicles (if
Increased user fees
available)
The financial impacts of
Reduce the number of Cityfacilities and
this scenario are
buildingsthat support Cityoperations
expected to be
Reduce energy demand by cutting
unsustainable for the
service to the public during peak load
organization
times
Replace HVAC systems to switch from
natural gas heating to electricity
Cutnon-legislated mobile services to
the public
Buildings
There is potential to reduce GHG emissions from City buildings through improved energy
management practices, lighting retrofits, upgrades to more energy efficient heating and air
conditioning systems, upgrading windows and insulation in City buildings, district energy
systems, introducing green procurement practices for electronics like computers and copiers,
and implementing design features to take advantage of passive solar heating and lighting in
new buildings. The goal to reduce fuel consumption in buildings must take into account the
impact on the functionality of our facilities, the services provided by them, and the expectations
of City staff and the public in moving forward.
Population growth and demand for new City facilities will be a significant challenge for the City
of Kitchener to achieve an absolute reduction in GHG emissions in the next 10 years.
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Reductions will only be achieved with the leadership of Council, full commitment and
cooperation of all City staff and an investment in capital improvements that take advantage of
energy savings and carbon reduction technologies. A portion of energy savings from efficiency
improvements could potentially be reinvested into new capital improvements to generate an
ongoing stream of efficiency projects for the future. Reductions in buildings emissions beyond
2
500 tCOe , or 7 per cent below 2016 emissions by the end of 2026, would most likely require
a significant investment in capital improvements and operating expenses with little to no
potential for payback within in the next 10 years, and potential service reductions to the public.
Vehicle Fleet
It is expected that more fuel efficient options and exhaust filtering systems will be available for
the fleet within the next decade that the City can take advantage of when there is asset
turnover. It is unlikely that electric vehicles will be a viable option for anything but a minimal
portion of the Ce of the
direct control of the City and may result in a net increase in costs for the City to implement.
Increasing the concentration and use of biodiesel has the potential to reduce GHG emissions in
the future, but the premium for biodiesel will require increased expenditures on fuel.
Improvements can be made in the way we use our fleet to reduce fuel consumption, including:
curbing growth, right-sizing vehicles, route optimization and changes in employee driving
behavior, creating both cost savings as well as emissions reductions. This is not to suggest
that the corporate Fleet division and operating areas are not engaged in these improvements
already. Rather, these changes will have to be championed by all City employees that use the
corporate fleet across the organization to have a significant impact on the City
goal to reduce fuel consumption will need to be balanced with the potential impact on staff
productivity and the C
2
the public in a growing community. Reductions in fleet emissions beyond 200 tCOe, or 5 per
cent below 2016 emissions by the end of 2026 would require service level reductions and a
significant investment in capital improvements and/or operating expenses with little to no
potential for payback within in the next 10 years.
Outdoor Lighting
The City of Kitchener has already made a commitment to LED conversion for street lighting,
which is expected to make the biggest single contribution to overall corporate emissions
reductions in the short-term. Further marginal reductions in energy consumption for outdoor
lighting may be possible over the next ten years to offset increases due to expected growth, but
will be a minimal contribution to a more aggressive reduction target. Reductions in emissions
2
from outdoor lighting beyond 600 tCOe , or 60 per cent below 2016 emissions by the end of
2026, is highly unlikely within in the next 10 years.
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Pumping Stations
It is expected that there may be some potential to improve the efficiency of pumping stations
over the next 10 years with improved maintenance and regular equipment tune-ups. Significant
capital investments with little to no payback may be required to introduce more aggressive
reductions in energy consumption for the City. Reductions in emissions from pumping stations
2
beyond 5 tCOe , or 3 per cent below 2016 emissions by the end of 2026, is unlikely within in
the next 10 years without significant new capital investments with little to no payback.
Corporate Waste
The City of Kitchener currently has waste diversion programs for 38 per cent of our building
space. Improvements in waste reduction may have the potential to save money, but additional
investments in waste diversion and the cost of implementing/reinforcing behavioural changes to
2
facilities and outdoor spaces. Reductions in emissions from corporate waste beyond 120 tCOe,
or 15 per cent below 2016 emissions by the end of 2026, is unlikely within in the next 10 years.
Table 3.3 GHG emissions reduction target by sector
2015 2015 2026 10 yr
Emissions Target
Sector % Total % GHG
(t COe) Emissions (t COe) reduction
22
Buildings 7,110 54.6% 6,760 5%
Fleet 4,013 30.8% 3,900 3%
Outdoor Lighting 938 7.2% 420 55%
Pumping Stations 142 1.1% 140 2%
*Waste 824 6.3% 760 8%
TOTAL 13,027 100% 11,980 8%
3.5 Recommended GHG Emissions Reduction Target
Staff are recommending that the City of Kitchener adopt an 8 per cent corporate GHG emissions
reduction target from 2016 levels by the end of 2026.
At this stage in the planning process, it is clear that opportunities exist to reduce energy
consumption and GHG emissions from City operations over the next ten years. Although, a
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great deal of uncertainty remains around specific strategies and actions the City should adopt to
take advantage of those opportunities in the most cost effective way, and what results we can
actually achieve. While an 8 per cent GHG emissions reduction target may appear to be
feasible for the City of Kitchener at this time, it needs to be viewed as a goalpost that gives the
organization something to aim for over the next ten years. When compared with the business
as usual scenario of a 15 per cent increase in carbon emissions over the next ten years, an
absolute reduction of 8 per cent from 2016 levels represents an overall reduction of 20 per
cent, which is a substantial ten-year goal.
The following principles will be used to guide the development of an action plan:
1.New investments in capital projects to achieve GHG emissions will need to achieve a
payback period of 10 years or less;
2.Actions will be targeted at fully leveraging all available funding programs and incentives
from other orders of government as appropriate; and
3.Decisions to fund both operating and capital investments will be done through the
regular budget cycle and within the context of all other competing priorities and the
C
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4 Planning to Adapt to Climate Change
4.1 Introduction
Today, the effects of climate change are being felt in communities across the country. These
effects are set to become so pervasive that all levels of government and all sections of society
will have a responsibility to become informed and to take appropriate action within their
mandates to prepare for and adapt to them.
ICLEI Canada has developed a milestone based framework to assist local governments in the
creation of adaptation plans to address the relevant climate change impacts associated with
their communities. Each milestone represents a fundamental step in the adaptation planning
process, starting with the initiation of adaptation efforts (by building an adaptation team and
identifying local stakeholders) and culminating with a monitoring and review process that
analyzes the successes and reviews the challenges of the adaptation plan and its
implementation.
The City of Kitchener will be using the ICLEI methodology to guide the development and
implementation of the adaptation components of the Corporate Climate Action Plan. To satisfy
the requirements of Milestone #1 of the framework, the City will: identify a preliminary list of
climate change impacts and existing adaptation actions, identify a champion and build a climate
change adaptation team that includes key stakeholders, and pass a Council resolution
demonstrating a political commitment to adaptation planning.
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4.2 Corporate Adaptation Planning Scope of Work
The scope of the Corporate Climate Action Plan includes assets, infrastructure, programs,
operations and services that are the direct responsibility of the City of Kitchener, and limited to
those actions that fall within the C
climate change impacts that will impact the local community that fall outside the scope of this
project, such as but not limited to: the health of individuals and particularly vulnerable
populations, the reliability of electric power distribution during and after major storm events,
and employment income from local agriculture.
The City of Kitchener is participating in the development of a Community Adaptation Plan that is
being coordinated by the Region of Waterloo. The community plan will look at a broad
spectrum of community impacts and will engage a variety of key stakeholders from within the
community to discuss impacts, risks and priorities for action. The City of Kitchener Corporate
Climate Action Plan will be developed in sync with the region-wide community plan so that
interdependencies and opportunities for integrated solutions can be explored together.
4.3 Preliminary Climate Change Impacts
Localized climate projections for Waterloo Region, prepared by the Interdisciplinary Centre on
Climate Change (IC3) and the University of Waterloo, indicate that we can expect hotter, wetter
and more extreme weather in the years to come. The most significant changes include:
40 per cent more freezing rain events by 2050
rainfall intensities are projected to increase
large-magnitude rainfall events expected to occur more frequently
more wind gust events are expected
the number of days with extreme heat is projected to more than triple to 32days per
and nearly double again by 2080
The following table provides a summary of the possible impacts of these changes, based on a
preliminary assessment of the data. While the City already has a number of programs in place
to manage these impacts, a thorough assessment is required to determine the potential risks
due to expected increases in frequency, duration and severity of these changes.
Table 4.1 Preliminary Impact Assessment
Impact Statement City Services Involved
Emergency Preparedness, Rescue and
1.Severe flooding creating a state of emergency due to
Recovery
extreme precipitation events - causing significant
damage to public infrastructure and private
Stormwater Management
property, forcing residents to evacuate their homes
Environmental Services
and businesses to shut down.
Roads & Traffic
Business Continuity
Corporate Risk and Insurance
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Impact Statement City Services Involved
2.Increased surface water flooding from ponding of
Stormwater Management
rainfall in low lying areas or heavy rainfall
Environmental Services
overcoming the capacity of the drainage system.
Roads & Traffic
3.Extensive tree damage, power outages, property
Emergency Management
damage and disruption to transportation networks
Environmental Services
due to more frequent extreme wind storms and
Roads & Traffic
more freezing rain events.
Corporate Risk and Insurance
Fire Department
4.Threats of forest fires and grass fires may increase
Emergency Management
with longer, drier and hotter heat waves.
Environmental Services
5.Increased tree mortality rates and change in the
Asset Management
urban forest composition due to increase in hot
Corporate Risk & Insurance
weather and decreased summer precipitation.
Facilities Management
6.Increased demand on cooling systems in City
Asset Management
buildings which may be used as a refuge by citizens
Community Programs & Services
due to more extreme heat events resulting in higher
energy use, increased costs and potential energy
brown-outs in peak demand periods.
Facilities Management
7.Physical damage to City buildings and facilities as
Asset Management
they become increasingly unsuited to the changing
Corporate Risk & Insurance
climate and more frequent climate hazards, resulting
Business Continuity
in costly repairs, loss of functionality and reduced
lifecycle.
Engineering
8. Physical damage to the City
Roads & Traffic
main breaks, degradation of road surfaces, as it
Asset Management
becomes increasingly unsuited to the changing climate
and more frequent hazards, resulting in costly repairs,
Risk & Insurance
loss of functionality and reduced lifecycle
Planning and Building
9.Development patterns not well adapted to future
climate within their lifespans (e.g. excess heat gain
and lack of cooling in buildings, buildings built below
adequate flood construction levels)
Community Programs & Services
10.Health and safety risks to City staff that work
Human Resources
outdoors and participants in outdoor City programs
All services with outside workers
and services due to extreme heat and disease vectors
Environmental Services
11.Damage to parks, trails, and natural areas due to
Asset Management
longer, drier and hotter heat waves and severe
flooding.
Planning
12. Damage to the ecology of the City
Environmental Services
system due to increased water temperatures, increased
evaporation, more extreme heat waves, and flooding.
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4.4 Assessing Adaptive Capacity and Identifying Risks
Having taken a first look at climatic changes and the potential impacts in milestone #1 (see
Appendix), it will be important to confirm that the most important impacts have been identified.
Next, the team will carry out research to determine the City
its capacity to adapt to the climate change impacts. A thorough vulnerability assessment will be
completed for each service area.
Using the results of the vulnerability assessment, along with research on projected climatic
changes, the consequence and likelihood of specific impacts will be estimated. The likelihood
assessment, together with the consequence evaluation, will constitute the risk score for each
impact. The final step in Milestone #2 is to organize the impacts according to the risk score
from extreme to low so that a prioritized list of impacts can be used to identify actions to be
included in the Corporate Climate Action Plan.
The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment will be shared with Council for input before
the action plan is developed.
How sensitive is the system to changes in climate given existing stresses?
To what extent is the system able to accommodate changes in climate with
1
minimal disruption and cost?
How susceptible is the system to harm from climate change impacts?
What are the known/estimated consequences of climate change impacts?
How likely is it that the projected impact would occur?
2
What is the perception and tolerance for risk related to climate change
impacts?
Identify Priority Areas
What are the high risk consequences for highly vulnerable systems?
3
What existing corporate priorities need to be considered?
What are the funding opportunities that may influence corporate priorities?
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5 Commitment to Move Forward
5.1 Corporate Climate Change Action Plan Steering Committee
The City of Kitchener has created team of stakeholders and subject matter experts from across
the organization to provide input, guidance, approval and direction on the Corporate Climate
Action Plan as it is developed over the next 12-15 months. The Corporate Leadership Team will
act as the project champion for the project, and Justin Readman, Executive Director
Infrastructure Services will be the project Sponsor. The individuals that have been chosen for
this team are in a position to provide insights into the appropriateness and feasibility of
potential actions to reduce GHG emissions and address the risks from climate change.
Committee Members
Manager, Strategy & Business Planning Project Lead (Chair)
Senior Sustainability Planner
Risk & Claims Analyst
Manager, Stormwater Utility
Manager, Projects & Energy Management
Manager, Emergency Management & Business Continuity
Director, Fleet
Director, Asset Management
Director of Operations Roads & Traffic
Director of Operations -Environmental Services
Responsibilities of the Steering Committee
The primary function of the Corporate Climate Action Steering Committee is to and guide
decision making on project deliverables throughout the planning process to ensure alignment
with existing programs and confirm that new commitments can be supported within the
capacity and capability of the organization. To achieve this objective, the Steering Committee
will:
Share information, and provide direction on the current and planned future actions the
City of Kitchener has already made a commitment to that will reduce corporate GHG
emissions and address the potential risks associated with climate change;
Identify opportunities to take a collaborative approach to corporate climate action
across divisions and departments;
Provide direction and feedback at key project milestones;
Provide direction for consultation with the Community Emergency Program Committee,
Corporate Energy Management Team, Corporate Asset Management Team, Fleet Users
Group, specific directors or managers, staff and other stakeholders as needed;
Make the decision to accept, revise, or reject project deliverables; and
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Communicate the status and progress of the project to other City staff and/or teams
that may be impacted, gathering and communicating feedback to the Project Lead.
As the project lead, the Manager of Strategy & Business Planning is responsible for successfully
completing the project on time within budget and securing acceptance and approval of
deliverables from the Project Sponsor, Environmental Committee, Corporate Leadership Team
and Council. When the Corporate Climate Action Plan is complete the Corporate Climate
Action Plan Steering Committee will be dissolved. The plan will identify who will take
responsibility for the implementation of the action plan and the ongoing monitoring and
management process.
5.2 Proposed Council Resolution
The final requirement for the City of Kitchener
methodology and Milestone #2 of the PCP program is to pass a resolution of Council to
establish the GHG emissions reduction target, establish the Corporate Climate Action Planning
adaption planning. The following Council resolution is recommended:
WHEREAS, scientific consensus has developed that carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse
gases released into the atmosphere have a profound effect on the
WHEREAS, the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) indicate that municipalities directly
and indirectly affect 44 per cent
an important role to play in mitigating this impact on the climate; and
WHEREAS, local government actions taken to prepare for climate change impacts provide
multiple local benefits by building a more resilient economy, and by helping to reduce the
physical impacts and costs to people, property and resources associated with a changing
climate.
THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener adopt an 8 per cent corporate GHG
reduction target from 2016 emissions levels by the end of 2026, and staff be directed to submit
it for consideration to the Federation of Canadian Municipalities as fulfillment of corporate
milestone #2 of the Partners for Climate Protection Program; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener make a commitment to climate change
adaptation planning through the five-milestone framework presented
Climate, Changing Communities methodology; and
BE IT FINALLY RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener establish the Corporate Climate Action Plan
Steering Committee to act as an advisory body to the Corporate Leadership Team and Council
recommending both mitigation and adaptation measures for the corporation that are practical,
affordable and appropriate.
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APPENDIX: Climate Change Issue Briefs
Issue Brief #1: Severe flooding
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ {ĻǝĻƩĻ ŅƌƚƚķźƓŭ ĭƩĻğƷźƓŭ ğ ƭƷğƷĻ ƚŅ ĻƒĻƩŭĻƓĭǤ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ ĻǣƷƩĻƒĻ ƦƩĻĭźƦźƷğƷźƚƓ ĻǝĻƓƷƭ
ĭğǒƭźƓŭ ƭźŭƓźŅźĭğƓƷ ķğƒğŭĻ Ʒƚ ƦǒĬƌźĭ źƓŅƩğƭƷƩǒĭƷǒƩĻ ğƓķ ƦƩźǝğƷĻ ƦƩƚƦĻƩƷǤͲ ŅƚƩĭźƓŭ ƩĻƭźķĻƓƷƭ Ʒƚ ĻǝğĭǒğƷĻ
ƷŷĻźƩ ŷƚƒĻƭ ğƓķ ĬǒƭźƓĻƭƭĻƭ Ʒƚ ƭŷǒƷ ķƚǞƓ͵
Studies projecting changes in
been consistent that an
increase in precipitation from
recent baseline periods can be
expected. Annual rainfall in the
Waterloo Region is projected to
increase by 3.8-6.2% compared
to the 1980-2010 baseline of
918.5mm by the 2020s,
dependent on global emissions
trends, and by 8.5-11.7% by the
2050s. Annual rainfall, however,
Credit: CTV News Kitchener
provides little contextual detail of use in managing regional hydrology.
Waterloo Region currently experiences an average of 165 days per year with precipitation (>0.1mm).
This is projected to decrease by 2-5 days per year, providing an early indication that the projected
increase in total rainfall will occur in more intense events. Days with heavy precipitation events
(>10mm) are projected to increase by 2-3 days from the current 30 days per year by the 2050s, while
very heavy precipitation days (>25mm) will increase by 1.5-2 days from the current 5 days per year. This
finding is consistent in the broader regional context, with studies produced for the Toronto, York and
Durham regions projecting comparable increases in the number of heavy precipitation days. The
greatest increases in seasonal precipitation are expected in spring and winter, respectively, while the
greatest monthly increase in precipitation can be expected in July, which is already the Waterloo
Return periods, a measure of how frequently a storm of a given magnitude can be expected to occur,
are useful tools for conveying information on rainfall intensity. The City of Kitchener uses a governing
standard that storm sewer drainage systems should be designed to accommodate a one-in-five year
storm event, unless otherwise specified in a Subwatershed Plan. In other words, the system is built to
accommodate storms with a 20% chance of occurring in any given year, currently based on the available
rainfall data for the period 1971-2007 (older installations are built to standards with prior baselines).
The projected intensification of precipitation events can be expressed as changes to observed return
periods. The following table reorients rainfall projections into high and low degrees of change.
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Baseline
2020s 2050s 2080s
1980-2010
Return
mm/day Low High Low High Low High
Interval
2-yr 50 17.00% 19.20% 3.20% 26.20% 3.80% 23.80%
5-yr 66.5 17.29% 21.17% 0.45% 25.53% 1.20% 25.23%
10-yr 78.5 17.83% 25.22% -0.51% 25.35% 2.29% 26.62%
25-yr 94.8 18.78% 31.75% -1.48% 25.21% 6.01% 28.48%
50-yr 107.8 19.85% 56.54% 11.50% 42.30% 25.42% 47.89%
100-yr 121.6 20.89% 43.91% -2.96% 25.00% 15.63% 31.58%
(Note: This table conveys changes irrespective of emissions scenarios in order to clearly show the expected ranges.
Scenario-specific warming Table 3.3 of \[ƚĭğƌźǩĻķ /ƌźƒğƷĻ tƩƚƆĻĭƷźƚƓƭ ŅƚƩ ğƷĻƩƌƚƚ wĻŭźƚƓͲ from which this data
was sourced conveys a sounder picture of how storm intensification is likely to evolve, dependent on global
emissions trends).
As can be seen, an intensification of storms of all return periods by at least 17-20% can be expected
through the 2020s, irrespective of emissions trends. While not identical to the 5-year storm standard
used for storm sewer system development, this is sufficient for comparison. A 20% intensification of a 5-
year storm may be sufficient to re-characterize it as a 3-year or 4-year storm compared to the current
baseline. Consequentially, a 5-year flood under a 2010-2040 baseline can be expected to exceed the
designed capacity standard based on a 1971-2007 standard, warranting express corporate intervention
to deter the possibility of low-magnitude, high-frequency events becoming habitually more damaging.
The more significant problem pertains to extreme events, 25-year or higher return period storms.
Projections indicate that Waterloo Region will experience both more extreme events, and that these
events will intensify from the current baseline to greater degrees than can be expected for shorter
return period storms, particularly in the near-term. 50-year storms, for instance, can be expected to
intensify by between 20-57% by the 2020s depending on global emissions trends. To put this risk into
perspective, Kitchener (measured at Waterloo International Airport) saw severe storms produce
localized flooding on August 25, 2016 (31.9mm), May 31, 2015 (35.6mm) and June 28, 2013 (37.8mm).
Assuming a rainfall duration of one hour (insufficient data readily available for more refined analysis),
which is more consistent with flash flooding events than sustained daily rains totaling these volumes,
that would place these rainfall events within approximately the 4-year to 7-year return period intervals,
or between a 14-25% chance of occurring in any given year (Figure 3 of
ƦķğƷĻ ƚŅ LƓƷĻƓƭźƷǤΏ5ǒƩğƷźƚƓΏ
CƩĻƨǒĻƓĭǤ ΛL5CΜ /ǒƩǝĻƭ ŅƚƩ ƷŷĻ /źƷǤ ƚŅ ğƷĻƩƌƚƚ ğƓķ ƷŷĻ /źƷǤ ƚŅ YźƷĭŷĻƓĻƩ). While damage from these
flooding events was limited and services resumed in a timely fashion, the presence of this flooding
reveals the vulnerability to more severe events.
According to Kitchener-updated IDF curve (1971-2007 baseline), a 25-year storm event
would see approximately the volume of water from the May 31 or June 28 events fall each hour for two
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hours, while a 100-year storm would see approximately double this rainfall volume fall per hour for a 2-
hour duration, under present circumstances. In this context, an intensification of 25-year or 50-year
storms by 19-32% and 20-57%, respectively, can be understood to be beyond what the drainage system
is capable of quickly diverting in a controlled fashion, leading to flooding. Significant intensification of
100-year storms is also projected, but as the baseline data for such extreme events is sparse, these
projections are less robust.
The consequences of significant urban flooding can be extensive, including:
Loss of Life: While uncommon, urban flash flooding can result in loss of life. Four cases of
drowning have been confirmed as a result of the 2013 Calgary flood, for instance, and one case
of downing in a submerged vehicle occurred in the 1987 Montreal flood.
Damage to Public and Private Property: Floodwater intrusion and sewer backups are the
leading cause of insurable damage in Canada. Intense rains on July 8, 2013 induced more than
$850 million in property damage in Toronto. The average cost for restoring flooded basements
following the Toronto and Calgary floods was $40,000.
Forced Relocation: Substantial flooding damage may force home and business owners to
temporarily or permanently leave their premises.
Loss of Livelihood: The loss of electricity, modes of communication, internet access, roads and
other services can lead to a significant curtailing of economic activity during and following
disaster events. The cessation of business operations, even among those spared physical
damage, can place hardship on private sector, often with adverse spillover effects. Data
collected in the United States suggests that almost 40% of small business do not reopen their
doors following a flooding disaster.
Decreased Land Values: Susceptibility to floods may decrease property values and increase the
cost of availability private flood insurance in the emerging market.
Hindered Economic Development: The high cost of relief and recovery may adversely impact
investment in infrastructure and other development activities in the area. Recurrent flooding in
a region may discourage long-term investments by the government and private sector alike.
Psychological Effects:
disruption to business and social affairs can cause stress among impacted urban residents.
Academic literate has found that strength of psychological effects has been positively correlated
with the magnitude of a disaster event, compounding the risk for vulnerable populations.
Flooding can occur quickly, and smaller streams are not always monitored by flood forecasting units.
Typically, the more advanced or immediate notice the public and responders have regarding the
presence of flooding, the more quickly impacts can be accommodated (e.g. avoiding flooded roads
during a daily commute), prepared for (e.g. ensure sump pump is working correctly) or managed (e.g.
have emergency response personnel at the ready). The advent of social media allows for the collection
and dissemination of real-time updates on floodwater status, allowing for a steady stream of contact
with citizens and the media, and providing indicators to municipal and regional authorities towards the
possible enactment of contingency plans pertinent to evacuations, opening of shelters, food
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distribution, etc. Informed by flood forecasts or reports of flooding, measures should be in place that an
emergency response centre be quickly established to coordinate activities.
Municipalities should have an emergency plan for dealing with a flood. Flood risk maps can be
invaluable for the planners, by identifying built-up areas, roadways, bridges, and essential services, such
as water treatment plants, that might be flooded. Each emergency plan should identify routes to
circumvent flooded areas and should explain how to protect drinking water supplies and sewers. Plans
must also set out instructions for evacuating residents, establishing reception centres and cleaning up.
Acknowledging that climate change will alter historical experiences with floods is important when
revising emergency plans.
Following the receding of floodwaters, recovery efforts must be managed by the municipality.
Transportation routes must be re-opened, electric power restored, and sewer and water lines put back
into operation. Property must be checked for hazards, debris removed, and homes decontaminated.
While home decontamination will be the responsibility of homeowners, municipal officials have an
opportunity to provide advice on the proper clean-up and decontamination methods. A pre-emptive
guide to flood risk alleviation may be prepared for homeowners. After the clean-up is complete, officials
should evaluate the event and, if necessary, revise the emergency plan in order to be better prepared
the next time.
The
robust intervention by municipal stakeholders. The high degree of change scenarios which may be
expected in the middle and late periods of this century are comparable to the intensification projected
for the 2020s for low return period storms events, while low degree of change scenarios are comparable
with baseline figures. Perhaps counter-intuitively, the scenario which most frequently produces the least
amount of precipitation change towards the middle and end of the century comes from the business-as-
usual, high global emissions trend scenario. While high return period storm events can be expected to
show a more sustained intensification throughout the century, the regional projections suggest a slight
tempering following the 2020s, indicating that robust measures to prepare the City of Kitchener for
these events made today are unlikely to be made inadequate in the future.
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Issue Brief #2: Increased surface water flooding from pooling
LƒƦğĭƷ ƭƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ LƓĭƩĻğƭĻķ ƭǒƩŅğĭĻ ǞğƷĻƩ ŅƌƚƚķźƓŭ ŅƩƚƒ ƦƚƓķźƓŭ ƚŅ ƩğźƓŅğƌƌ źƓ ƌƚǞ ƌǤźƓŭ ğƩĻğƭ ƚƩ ŷĻğǝǤ
ƩğźƓŅğƌƌ ƚǝĻƩĭƚƒźƓŭ ƷŷĻ ĭğƦğĭźƷǤ ƚŅ ƷŷĻ ķƩğźƓğŭĻ ƭǤƭƷĻƒ.
Urban flooding has become one of the most
substantial threats to property and health safety
in many Canadian municipalities, and recent
examples of severe flooding in Ontario
municipalities like Toronto and Windsor
demonstrate the scale of damage caused by
high-return period rain events. Flooding can
happen at any time of the year, but factors like
the ground still being frozen, rainfall exacerbated
by snowmelt, baked soil and leaf litter blocking
storm sewer grates can exacerbate the risk.
More intense storms increase the likelihood of
the surface water pooling, overwhelming either
for permeable surfaces to absorb water. Water is
likely to collect in low-lying areas and
Credit: CTV News Kitchener
depressions, as well as areas which experience
drainage bottlenecks. Pooling can result in localized flooding which may result in property damage
including basement flooding and vehicles being partially submerged, impeding transportation networks,
and the inability to use natural areas for recreation.
Pooling in a municipal environment is typically the result of the impermeable features which define
urban development roads, parking lots, roofs and other surfaces which prevent the water from being
absorbed into the underlying soil. Water naturally flows to lower elevations, and the abundance of
impermeable surfaces can result in significant volumes of water collecting in low-lying areas, causing
flooding. To cope with this, cities install drainage systems comprised of major and minor systems. The
major system, which is responsible for diverting the significant majority of stormwater during high-
magnitude, low-frequency storm events, consists of the streets, swales and open channels. Conversely,
the minor system consists of a network of subsurface pipes (storm sewers) intended to quickly divert
stormwater from low-magnitude, high frequency storm events away from the built environment in a
controlled manner, reducing the risk of damage to the built environment.
Issues of pooling exist when the quantity of rainfall exceeds the capacity of the drainage system to
divert it from the built environment. When this occurs, water travels downs roads and other paths of
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least resistance to low-lying areas, where it may inundate roads, lawns, parking lots, parks and
subterranean levels of buildings or other infrastructure. Pooling water is typically a recurring and costly
threat in urban environments, as demonstrated by the localized flooding which has occurred in
Kitchener in recent years.
As cities develop to accommodate growing populations, the scale of issues regarding impermeable
surfaces increases, exacerbating existing drainage capacity insufficiencies. This is further compounded
by the projected intensification of future storm events. Waterloo Region can expect an intensification of
storm events of all return periods of at least 17% by the 2020s compared to baseline records,
irrespective of global emissions trends. High return period storms are projected to intensify to more
severe degrees under high degree of change scenarios, with the volume of rainfall in 25, 50 and 100-
year storms projected to increase by at least 25% throughout the century, and by as much as 57% during
the 2020s for a 50-year storm.
In order to accommodate these projected rainfall intensifications and prevent exacerbated flooding
where possible, drainage systems must be improved. The Stormwater Master Plan identifies areas for
improvement in the storm sewer network; however, such improvements come at significant cost. Storm
sewer networks could be upgraded to accommodate higher-magnitude, lower-frequency events, but the
necessarily immense diameter of the pipes result in this action being extremely expensive. Incremental
upgrades to the minor drainage system coupled with systematic expansions of the major drainage
system predicated on holistic land use management offers the most cost-effective means of expanding
the drainage capacity of an urban area to address storm events of varying frequency and magnitude.
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Issue Brief #3: Freezing Rain and Wind Damage
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ 9ǣƷĻƓƭźǝĻ ƷƩĻĻ ķğƒğŭĻͲ ƦƚǞĻƩ ƚǒƷğŭĻƭͲ ƦƩƚƦĻƩƷǤ ķğƒğŭĻ ğƓķ ķźƭƩǒƦƷźƚƓ Ʒƚ
ƷƩğƓƭƦƚƩƷğƷźƚƓ ƓĻƷǞƚƩƉƭ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ ƒƚƩĻ ŅƩĻƨǒĻƓƷ ĻǣƷƩĻƒĻ ǞźƓķ ƭƷƚƩƒƭ ğƓķ ƒƚƩĻ ŅƩĻĻǩźƓŭ ƩğźƓ ĻǝĻƓƷƭ.
Climatic projections for
Waterloo Region suggest the
characteristics of weather
events we experience are very
likely to change. Some of
these changes are expected to
cause stress, interruptions or
damage across the city. For
instance, the projected
increases in the number of
freezing rain events by 40% by
the 2050s and strength of
Credit: The Weather Network
wind gusts will impact both natural and human systems.
Freezing rain-induced ice accumulation on trees can cause extensive damage. Depending on tree
characteristics, ice accumulation can increase the weight of branches by factors of 10-100. This places
significant stress on weak points such as branch junctures, dead branches, unbalanced crowns and
shallow root systems. In the most susceptible category are trees such as silver maples, eastern
cottonwoods, black oaks, black cherries and willows. Trees of average susceptibility include eastern
white pine, red maple, sugar maple and tamaracks. Particularly when exacerbated by strong winds, ice
accumulation can result in widespread downed branches or trees, which then may have compounding
results of property damage, interruption of traffic systems, disruption to recreation spaces and
damaging electricity transmission infrastructure. Falling branches is cited as one of the most common
causes of power outages in Ontario. Healthy trees with strong branching patterns, flexible lateral
branches and conical shapes tend to be the least susceptible to freezing rain. While most trees can
recover on their own from ice cover damage, actions like corrective pruning and bracing young trees can
increase tree resilience. A significant ice storm in December 2013 caused extensive tree damage within
Waterloo Region, and more broadly resulted in more than one million people losing power, primarily in
Ontario.
Severe weather has become the number one cause of power outages in North America, and the costs to
the economy via repair costs for damaged equipment such as transmission and distribution systems and
societal costs of work interruptions, lost productivity, and loss of consumables has steadily risen over
the past three decades. Ice accumulation in excess of 1.25cm creates condition with a high probability of
causing power blackouts. In addition to the threat of downed tree branches, 1.25cm of ice can add 500
pounds of additional weight per segment of power line. This can cause breaks in the lines, and if the
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problem is widespread, may take a utility days to fully restore the network. The Weather Network refers
as it is likely to result in significant instances of tree and
power line damage, as well as abysmal road conditions for all kinds of traffic.
Freezing rain can result in some of the worst slippery road traffic accidents outbreaks, with road
conditions often visually indistinguishable from wet pavement. While improvements in vehicle safety
mechanisms like traction control, antilock brakes, stability control and tire grip partially mitigate the
personal dangers of freezing rain, the sustained trend of spikes in accident numbers following ice
accumulation demonstrates the need for planned response. An increase of 40% in the number of
freezing events may stress municipal capacity to promptly respond and mitigate the threat to motorists.
Heeding the risks dangerous road conditions freezing rain presents may also result in unintended
business impacts; refraining from commuting to work or businesses may induce business losses that
must be absorbed by the company. In addition, ice accumulation on sidewalks and pedestrian spaces on
municipal property can create slippery conditions, presenting a risk of physical harm to the public.
In exceptional circumstances, freezing rain can result in enormous costs and damages. For instance, the
1998 Ontario/Quebec ice storm caused approximately $1.8 billion in direct infrastructure damage, tree
damage and lost business opportunity.
An intensification of wind gusts may similarly
cause damage and interruption to the
aforementioned systems. For instance, a powerful
thunderstorm which saw winds in excess of
100km/h hit Kitchener on July 27, 2013. The storm
caused extensive tree and branch downing
throughout the city, damaging homes, fences,
sheds and municipal parks. Winds partially ripped
the roofs off homes and apartment buildings, and
blew fixtures off retail buildings. Power outages
were reported impact around 6,800 customers,
which in some cases lasted up to two days.
Waterloo region is projected to experience an
increase in the frequency of wind gusts in excess
of 40km/hour by 10-20%, and gusts in excess of
70km/hour by 20-40% compared to the 1994-
2007 average by late this century.
Credit: Linda Givetash, Waterloo Record
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Issue Brief #4: Forest and Grass Fires
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ ŷƩĻğƷƭ ƚŅ ŅƚƩĻƭƷ ŅźƩĻƭ
ğƓķ ŭƩğƭƭ ŅźƩĻƭ ƒğǤ źƓĭƩĻğƭĻ ǞźƷŷ ƌƚƓŭĻƩͲ
ķƩźĻƩ ğƓķ ŷƚƷƷĻƩ ŷĻğƷ ǞğǝĻƭ.
Projected changes in temperature and
precipitation norms within Waterloo Region
are likely to increase the risk of forest and
grass fires. By the 2050s, mean summer
temperatures are projected to increase by
1.3-3.1°C compared to observed 1990s
temperatures and by 1.5-5.3°C by the 2080s,
depending on global greenhouse gas
emissions trends. In addition, the number of
days with temperatures in excess of 30°C is
projected to increase by 5-15 days by the
2050s, compared to the observed 1990s
mean of 10 days per year, and by 4.5-49 by
the 2080s, depending on emissions trends.
Credit: CTV News Kitchener
This is a significant change from regional
temperature norms, and will place considerable stress on ecological systems adapted to local climate
conditions. To put this scale of change into perspective, US-based Climate Central has projected that,
under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, by 2080-2100 summer temperatures in Toronto will be
comparable to curr
urban heat island effect complicates direct comparability with Waterloo Region, a change of comparable
magnitude is reasonable to expect under this warming scenario.
Exacerbating rising temperatures, which increase rates of evapotranspiration, are projected changes to
precipitation patterns. A slight projected decrease in the number of days experiencing rain, as well as an
intensification of rain events, which tends to increase runoff and decrease soil absorption, will result in
decreased moisture availability for regional flora. While no major study of climate projections in
Southern Ontario projects a significant trend towards drought conditions, drier summer growing
seasons are expected to become more common.
Resulting dry conditions increase the risk of regional forest and grass fires. Overall forested area burned
in Ontario is projected to increase by 50-300% by 2080 (with the most severe increases occurring in the
northwestern portions of the province), a result of more frequent fires in a longer burning season. Fires
present a risk to human health and safety, property, natural areas, agriculture and waterways. An
increase in fire activity may stress Fire and Emergency Mana
manage tree mortality in order to reduce available fuel for burning.
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Forest and grass fires present a risk to the security of electricity systems. Flames can directly damage
transmission poles and other electricity infrastructure; however, the greatest risk comes from smoke
and particulate matter, which can ionize the air, creating an electrical pathway away from transmission
lines, tripping utility breakers and shutting down the lines.
Summer 2016 may provide insight into the conditions which could become more common in the future.
Hot, dry conditions resulted in plant stress and high forest fire risk throughout Southern Ontario,
inducing fire bans by the Grand River Conservation Authority and Ontario Parks.
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Issue Brief #5: Summer Tree Mortality and Migration
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ LƓĭƩĻğƭĻķ ƷƩĻĻ ƒƚƩƷğƌźƷǤ ƩğƷĻƭ ğƓķ ĭŷğƓŭĻƭ źƓ ƷŷĻ ǒƩĬğƓ ŅƚƩĻƭƷ ĭƚƒƦƚƭźƷźƚƓ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ
źƓĭƩĻğƭĻ źƓ ŷƚƷ ǞĻğƷŷĻƩ ğƓķ ķĻĭƩĻğƭĻ źƓ ƭǒƒƒĻƩ ƦƩĻĭźƦźƷğƷźƚƓ.
Summers in Waterloo Region are projected
to become warmer and drier, particularly
under scenarios of high global greenhouse
gas emissions trends. If the world proceeds
with aggressive climate change mitigation
actions, mean summer temperatures are
likely to rise by 1.3°C by the 2050s and
1.5°C by the 2080s compared to observed
1990s temperatures, coupled with an
increase in the number of days exceeding
30°C by about 5 days during both
timespans. Conversely, under a business-
as-usual emissions scenario, mean summer
temperatures may increase by 3.1°C and
5.3°C by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively,
while days with temperatures reaching
Credit: CBC Kitchener-Waterloo
over 30°C may increase by factors of 2.5 by
mid-century and 6 by end of century. According to US-based Climate Central, the business-as-usual
scenario will result in Waterloo Region experiencing end-of-century summer norms typical of Southern
Florida today.
Projected regional summer drying resulting from temperature-induced increases in evapotranspiration
and soil baking, increased runoff during extreme events and a reduction in the number of rainy days, in
addition to expected increases in the number and intensity of extreme weather events, compounds the
issue of increasing temperatures with regards to ecological systems. Together, these impacts will place
significant stress on trees and other flora adapted to regional climatic norms. Extended hot, dry
conditions are likely to result in increased instances of tree mortality in the interim, beginning with more
sensitive tree species, and may induce significant ecological changes on longer timescales.
As annual temperatures rise, a northward progression of ecozones/ecoregions can be expected. Species
native to Southwestern Ontario will be progressively replaced with species characteristic of more
southerly latitudes, particularly in the case of high global emissions trends scenarios. With insight from
regional projections, end-of-century annual average climatic conditions might be expected to more
closely compare to current norms in Charlotte, North Carolina under a business-as-usual scenario,
inducing a gradual species transition towards flora native to the Atlantic mid-latitudes of the United
States. That said, natural tree migration is a very slow process, averaging only a few hundred meters per
year. Rapid changes in climatic norms threatens to exceed the habitable range for some native species
faster than more well-adapt species can replace them, risking the health of regional forests.
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The forthcoming species migration can be partially managed by Environmental Services staff, preserving
resiliency to
emerging climate conditions, rather than traditional planning standards. Species that have high
fecundity, long distance pollen flow, and short generation times are likely to be more successful in
adapting to a changing climate.
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Issue Brief #6: Electrical Systems
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ LƓĭƩĻğƭĻķ ķĻƒğƓķ ƚƓ ĭƚƚƌźƓŭ ƭǤƭƷĻƒƭ źƓ ĭźƷǤ ĬǒźƌķźƓŭƭ Ǟŷźĭŷ ƒğǤ ĬĻ ǒƭĻķ ğƭ ğ
ƩĻŅǒŭĻ ĬǤ ĭźƷźǩĻƓƭ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ ƒƚƩĻ ĻǣƷƩĻƒĻ ŷĻğƷ ĻǝĻƓƷƭ ƩĻƭǒƌƷźƓŭ źƓ ŷźŭŷĻƩ ĻƓĻƩŭǤ ǒƭĻͲ źƓĭƩĻğƭĻķ ĭƚƭƷƭ ğƓķ
ƦƚƷĻƓƷźğƌ ĻƓĻƩŭǤ ĬƩƚǞƓΏƚǒƷƭ źƓ ƦĻğƉ ķĻƒğƓķ ƷźƒĻƭ͵
Climate change
presents multi-faceted
risks to electricity
systems pertaining to
quality and security of
supply. Estimates from
the United States
suggest that modest
warming of about 1°C
Credit: Kitchener Wilmot Hydro
is likely to result in a
corresponding increase in energy demand for cooling by 5-20%. Increases in power demand are most
likely to occur in the summer. Locally, Waterloo Region is projected to experience mean summer
temperatures increasing by 1.3-3.1°C by the 2050s compared to observed 1990s temperatures and by
1.5-5.3°C by the 2080s, depending on global greenhouse gas emissions trends. In addition, the number
of days with temperatures in excess of 30°C is projected to increase by 5-15 days by the 2050s,
compared to the observed 1990s mean of 10 days per year, and by 4.5-49 by the 2080s, depending on
emissions trends. According to US estimates of comparable degrees of warming, this may increase
expenditure on energy for total space heating and cooling by approximately 10-20%, assuming constant
energy rates.
rates in the future. Maintaining the grid to provide very high peak demand, which is typically only
reached on very hot summer afternoons, requires significant investment in transmission and generating
capacity, all the while annual electrical demand has been steadily dropping in Ontario, reducing
revenue. To cover the necessary costs, rates much successively be raised. Consequentially, heat waves
of more severe magnitudes than currently experienced may result in higher summer electrical demand
for cooling in an environment of higher electrical rates.
The City of Kitchener offers City Hall, community centres, splash pads, libraries and arenas as cooling
centres during the summer months; air conditioned spaces where residents can escape the heat.
ncreases in the number of very hot days may
may emerge as the city continues to develop, warranting additional centres.
A warmer climate may reduce the efficiency of power production for many existing thermal power
plants because these plants use water for cooling. The colder the
water is, the more efficient the generation of electricity. Thus, higher air and water temperatures could
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reduce the efficiency with which these plants convert fuel into electricity. Anomalously warm
temperatures in the Great Lakes have become increasingly common in recent years, a trend that the
University of Wisconsin-Policy expected to become exacerbated as a
result of increasing air temperatures and decreasing winter lake ice. The Centre reports that In July
2006, the Cook Nuclear Plant in Michigan was shut down for 5 days due to high temperature intake
waters caused by an intense heat wave, and that both adversely high water intake temperatures and
noncompliance with water discharge rules are likely to become more common. As nuclear provides the
-day shutdowns of one of the provi
threaten a stable grid, particularly during heat waves more intense than we are currently accustomed
to. Likewise, very high electrical use can strain the capacity of the grid; if demand exceeds grid supply
intentional brownouts may be induced to preserve the integrity of the grid at large. Electrical outages
can be extremely costly to businesses operating within the City of Kitchener, and Ontario more broadly,
and future investment may be hindered if the security of electrical supply cannot be guaranteed.
Particularly during heat waves, when the grid is near transmission capacity, risks of interruptions from
trees can be exacerbated absent diligent maintenance of the local canopy. The weight of voltage in high-
density lines which supply the local grid can sag, and if there are trees underneath that might be
reached as a result of this sagging, an electrical conduit may form, shorting the lines. As a result, more
frequent, intense heatwaves may require modifications to tree maintenance policies.
The most effective means to mitigate these risks is to increase the electrical efficiency of operations.
Increasing efficiency will reduce the cost burden associated with increased cooling demand, which will
occur primarily during peak hours. Likewise, while corporate operations represent only a small portion
of community electrical demand, any measures which reduce cumulative demand work to preserve the
integrity of grid supply.
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Issue Brief #7: Physical Damage to City Buildings and Facilities
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ tŷǤƭźĭğƌ ķğƒğŭĻ Ʒƚ ĭźƷǤ
ĬǒźƌķźƓŭƭ ğƓķ ŅğĭźƌźƷźĻƭ ğƭ ƷŷĻǤ ĬĻĭƚƒĻ
źƓĭƩĻğƭźƓŭƌǤ ǒƓƭǒźƷĻķ Ʒƚ ƷŷĻ ĭŷğƓŭźƓŭ ĭƌźƒğƷĻ
ğƓķ ƒƚƩĻ ŅƩĻƨǒĻƓƷ ĭƌźƒğƷĻ ŷğǩğƩķƭͲ ƩĻƭǒƌƷźƓŭ źƓ
ĭƚƭƷƌǤ ƩĻƦğźƩƭͲ ƌƚƭƭ ƚŅ ŅǒƓĭƷźƚƓğƌźƷǤ ğƓķ ƩĻķǒĭĻ
ƌźŅĻĭǤĭƌĻ͵
Projected changes in the climate of Waterloo
Region are very likely to have adverse impacts on
municipal facilities and buildings in the short and
long terms. The intensification of extreme
precipitation events, realization of warmer and
drier summers, increases in freezing rain
occurrences, strengthening of damaging winds, and increased accumulation of snow are all factors
which can damage building, induce loss of functionality and accelerate natural decline of condition.
Climate hazards can have wide-ranging consequences for exterior and interior surfaces of public and
private buildings, and shifting norms have already been tied to adverse impacts in Ontario. Increased
snowfall has led to numerous incidences of the structural collapse of public and private building
structures. Increased precipitation has reduced the structural integrity of many buildings, accelerated
the deterioration of building facades, caused premature weathering of input material, increased surface
leaching and, in some instances, decreased the integrity of engineered berms as a result of slope
instability. Greater incidences of flooding have led to extensive commercial and property damage and
basement flooding, which have reduced the functionality and service life of building foundations. The
taken to decrease the likelihood of occurrence.
The Winnipeg-based International Institute for Sustainable Development produced a literature review
assessing the potential climate change impacts on Canadian infrastructure, noting the following Ontario-
pertinent concerns for the building sector:
Climate Impact Building Consequence
Increased precipitation Reduced structural integrity of building components through
mechanical, chemical and biological degradation
Accelerated deterioration of building facades
Premature weathering of input materials
Increased fractures and spalling in building foundations
Decreased durability of materials
Increased efflorescence and surface leaching concerns
Increased corrosion
Increased mold growth
Damaged or flooded structures
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Slope stability and integrity of engineered berms are also vulnerable
to extreme precipitation.
Increased risk of basement and localized flooding
Increased corrosion in metals or deterioration in concrete
Structural damage from increased snow weight
Hotter, drier summers Building damage has sometimes been observed when clay soils dry
and heat waves out.
Forest fires can damage entire homes and businesses.
Premature weathering
Increased indoor air temperature and reliance on cooling systems
Hail, windstorms and ice Property destruction
storms Damage building infrastructure
Reduction of design safety margins
Reduced service life and functionality of components and systems
Increased risk for catastrophic failure
Increased repair, maintenance, reserve fund contingencies and
energy costs
Three primary determinants which will influence the sensitivity of building infrastructure to climate
change impacts are the age, composition and design of the facilities. Old and overextended
infrastructure is likely to be more susceptible to the negative impacts of climate change. Older
infrastructure is most vulnerable in general; all other factors remaining constant, a new building will be
less affected by climate hazards than an older building that has aged and deteriorated over time.
The materials used in the construction and maintenance of various types of infrastructure also play a
key role in influencing the sensitivity of said infrastructure to climate hazards. The extent to which
materials are susceptible to natural breakdown and weathering over time can be compounded in the
context of climate variability and change. For example, wood and other flammable materials are
obviously much more susceptible to damage from wildfires in drier conditions. Similarly, the exposure of
infrastructure to more incremental climatic changes is also affected by the types of material used in
their construction. For instance, the ability of structures to provide passive cooling in increasing average
temperatures varies from one conventional building material to the next.
Most infrastructure continues to be designed on the basis of historical climate data and assumptions,
generally meaning they do not account for an expected increase in frequency and intensity of climate
hazards or new climate hazards. For example, expansive roof complexes may be inadequately designed
for the increased drainage and load bearing needs that the intensifications of rainfall, snowfall and
freezing rain may require. Climate considerations in design are important not only to improving
resilience to climate hazards and incremental climate change, but can also positively contribute to
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. For example, green roofs can contribute to the passive cooling of
buildings and more effective rainwater management while simultaneously reducing energy usage and
costs. Though often representing higher upfront costs, investments in more resilient design can help
avoid larger future costs (in terms of maintenance, repair and replacement).
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Issue Brief #8: Physical Damage to City Infrastructure
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ tŷǤƭźĭğƌ ķğƒğŭĻ
ƒğźƓ ĬƩĻğƉƭͲ ķĻŭƩğķğƷźƚƓ ƚŅ Ʃƚğķ
ƭǒƩŅğĭĻƭͲ ğƭ źƷ ĬĻĭƚƒĻ źƓĭƩĻğƭźƓŭƌǤ
ǒƓƭǒźƷĻķ Ʒƚ ƷŷĻ ĭŷğƓŭźƓŭ ĭƌźƒğƷĻ ğƓķ
ƒƚƩĻ ŅƩĻƨǒĻƓƷ ĭƌźƒğƷĻ ŷğǩğƩķƭͲ
ƩĻƭǒƌƷźƓŭ źƓ ĭƚƭƷƌǤ ƩĻƦğźƩƭͲ ƌƚƭƭ ƚŅ
ŅǒƓĭƷźƚƓğƌźƷǤ ğƓķ ƩĻķǒĭĻ ƌźŅĻĭǤĭƌĻ͵
Rainfall events of all assessed
magnitudes are likely to intensify by
at least 17-20% by the 2020s,
compared to the 1990s, with the
greatest risk of intensification being
Credit: CTV News Kitchener
among high-magnitude events. Total
winter snowfall is likely to increase in the coming decades before declining as winters warm, only to be
replaced by significant increases in freezing rain events. Seasonal mean winter temperatures will
approach the freezing mark while summer temperatures soar, including a potential six-fold increase in
the number of days above 30°C by the end of this century. Strong wind gusts are projected to
strengthen and summers are expected to dry.
Each of these changes in climatic norms is likely to have impacts on municipal infrastructure; indeed,
extreme events which have occurred in Ontario and Quebec showcase the impacts which could
conceivably occur in Kitchener. During the August 2005 flood in Toronto, two high-pressure gas mains
were damaged, along with a portable water main. Finch Ave, an arterial street, collapsed, disrupting
traffic patterns and utility service lines were interrupted. The 2004 Peterborough flood resulted in the
disconnection of approximately 1000 home gas lins, as well as the inundation of sewer systems and
roads. The 1996 Saguenay flood forced the complete restoration of roads, bridges and sewer networks.
Collectively, substantial economic costs have already been attributed to the impact of climate hazards
on municipal infrastructure, and these costs are only expected to increase in the future.
Potential climate impacts on road transportation networks highlight the diversity of consequences that
must be considered in order to adequately prepare these systems. Nation-wide, public funding is most
heavily invested in highways and roads, and 18.5% of the 2017 Capital Budget will be allocated to road
maintenance and winter controls.
The Winnipeg-based International Institute for Sustainable Development produced a literature review
assessing the potential climate change impacts on Canadian infrastructure, noting the following Ontario-
pertinent concerns for the land transportation sector:
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Climate Impact Building Consequence
Greater frequency of Triggered instability of embankments and pavement structures
freeze-thaw cycles in (ditches, culverts, drains, street hardware, bridges, tunnels)
winter months
Increased frequency, duration and severity of: thermal cracking,
rutting, frost heave and thaw weakening
Hotter, drier summers Pavement softening
Reduction in the maximum loads that can be safely transported
Asphalt-covered surfaces are more susceptible to damage during
heat waves
Increase in flushing or bleeding of older pavement
Change in the timing and duration of seasonal load restrictions and
winter weight premiums
Increased challenges in pavement construction process
Shortened life expectancy of highways, roads and rail
Drier conditions affecting the life cycle of bridges and culverts
Increased flow of streams and rivers, which increases need to
replace ice bridges
Augmentation of Urban Heat Island Effect
Flooding Capacity of culverts and storm sewer systems are more frequently
exceeded; road damage, bridge washouts, underpass and basement
flooding, increased repair bills and insurance costs
Bridges and low-lying roads have a high risk of being inundated or
damaged.
Waterway-adjacent roads may be required to be moved or be rebuilt
at higher elevation to avoid or reduce flooding.
Milder winters (mostly Longer construction season, fewer pothole repairs
late century) Less frost damage for southern roads
Decreased damage from fewer freeze-thaw cycles
Changes to maintenance schedules
Reduced snowfall lowering plowing expenditure
As can be seen, milder winters offer opportunities for decreased cold-related maintenance, particularly
later in the century. More months of the year with average temperatures above the freezing mark will
reduce freeze-thaw cycles, while less snowfall will reduce the costs of clearing city roads.
Similar to municipal buildings, the age, composition and design of city infrastructure will be primary
determinants on the sensitivity to projected changes. Older water mains, for instance, are less able to
accommodate pavement movements during extreme heat events and are more likely to crack.
Pavement selection is based on a specific regional temperature regime; the increase of extreme heat
events in Waterloo Region could lead to current pavement grade selections being ill-equipped to
accommodate emerging norms. Existing roads may become more susceptible to the aforementioned
impacts of hot summers, while a newly selected pavement grade may be more expensive. Storm sewers
and drainage infrastructure designs will need to be improved to accommodate increased water flow
resulting from the intensification of precipitation events.
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An effective strategy to managing climate risk typically involves a combination of responses focusing on
technical aspects (e.g., modifying the design of infrastructures to make them more resistant to the
increased intensity of floods), policy and legal aspects (e.g., new stormwater drainage standards),
financial aspects (e.g., specific funds allocated to support the maintenance of infrastructure),
socioeconomic aspects (e.g., change in habits and behavioral patterns associated with the use of
infrastructures, relocation or abandonment of infrastructures) and institutional aspects (e.g., awareness
raising and capacity building of the infrastructure sector on climate adaptation). Adaptation is a
dynamic, context-specific and often long-term process that requires sustained efforts from a variety of
actors. Nation-wide,
are opportunities for investments to be rethought and life-cycle costs to be taken into greater
consideration. If targeted effectively, new infrastructure investments can significantly improve the long-
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Issue Brief #9: Development Patterns
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ 5ĻǝĻƌƚƦƒĻƓƷ ƦğƷƷĻƩƓƭ ƓƚƷ ǞĻƌƌ ğķğƦƷĻķ Ʒƚ ŅǒƷǒƩĻ ĭƌźƒğƷĻ ǞźƷŷźƓ ƷŷĻźƩ ƌźŅĻƭƦğƓƭ ΛĻ͵ŭ͵
ĻǣĭĻƭƭ ŷĻğƷ ŭğźƓ ğƓķ ƌğĭƉ ƚŅ ĭƚƚƌźƓŭ źƓ ĬǒźƌķźƓŭƭͲ ĬǒźƌķźƓŭƭ ĬǒźƌƷ ĬĻƌƚǞ ğķĻƨǒğƷĻ Ņƌƚƚķ ĭƚƓƭƷƩǒĭƷźƚƓ
ƌĻǝĻƌƭΜ͵
As the projected changes in
the climate of Waterloo
Region become realized,
modifications in the
development standards and
patterns utilized by the City of
Kitchener may be necessary.
Section 6 of the Kitchener
Official Plan emphasizes the
mmitment to
reducing the risk to citizens
posed by natural and human-
made hazards with the stated
objectives to:
prevent injury or the
loss of life and
Credit: Grand River Conservation Authority
minimize property
damage and social disruption through the restriction of land use activities on lands susceptible
to flooding or erosion; and
provide for limited and controlled development on natural hazardous lands where it is
determined that such development is appropriate and safe.
The changing hydrology of Waterloo Region may induce progressive changes to the scale of floodplain
designation within the boundaries of the City of Kitchener. Floodplain boundaries are mapped by the
dumped 285mm of rain over Southern Ontario within a 48-hour period and caused significant flooding
across the province. This volume of water is considerably larger than what can be expected during a
100-year flood event, a longstanding precautionary approach that enhances the resiliency of flood
management in Ontario. That said, changes in landscape through urbanization, more sophisticated flood
models and the projected intensification of severe storm events 50-year storms are expected to
intensify by 20-57% by the 2020s compared to the observed 1971-2007 baseline, while 100-year storms
are likely to intensify by 21-44%, depending on the global greenhouse gas emissions scenario may
result in new floodplain designations.
Where new floodplains or flood fringes are established, emergency services, health services, schools, or
uses likely to contaminated waterways are prohibited, no new developments or redevelopments will be
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permitted in high-risk Zone One areas, and in flood fringe Zone Two areas, development or site
alteration will be subject to appropriate floodproofing standards to the flooding hazard elevation where
permitted.
This approach is outlined in the Official Plan, which also includes the policy to consider the potential
impacts of climate change that may increase the risk associated with natural hazards when evaluating
development applications and infrastructure projects.
The design of urban spaces and application of tools available to municipal planners have a considerable
capacity to guide adaptive and resilient development. The Government of Canada has highlighted
floodplain informed zoning policies like those employed in the City of Kitchener as one of the most
effective means to mitigate urban flood risk. Other highlighted options include ensuring that the built
environment can withstand a range of environmental stress, helping to preserve natural environments
that protect communities against hazards (for example, urban forestry to alleviate the urban heat island
effect), and educating stakeholders and decision makers about risks and opportunities.
Subdivision controls, site plan controls and other project-based, discretionary development controls can
be very useful for adapting to climate change at the neighbourhood scale. A municipality may require
that appropriate adaptation measures be taken by the developer; for instance, the lots in a proposed
subdivision may be clustered in the least hazardous part of the property. In other cases, a site plan
control ordinance may be used to require that green design features that address the impacts of climate
change be incorporated (for instance, providing shade and rooftop gardens to decrease the public
health risk from urban heat islands).
The embedding of climate change considerations in design guidelines of development projects
(including buildings, public areas, infrastructure, mechanical systems and landscaping) is another means
to enhance resiliency. Examples include guidelines for the design of parking lots, streetscapes, building
facades, storm water ponds, heritage dis
components such as parking lots, parks and roadways, drainage ditches or a neighbourhood as a
whole can reduce or magnify the impacts of climate change at the local scale. Good design can
contribute to building resilience to climate change at the local level. For example, selecting appropriate
building materials and landscaping can enhance passive cooling in buildings, reducing cooling demand.
Although many municipalities have developed design guidelines without climate change in mind, their
use can improve resilience to the impacts of climate change. Conversely, design guidelines may
recommend or impose development standards that may inadvertently decrease resilience to climate
change. For example, a municipality may prescribe building wide roads to accommodate emergency
vehicles; however, those wide roads may also increase storm water volumes and magnify the urban
heat island effect.
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Issue Brief #10: Health and Safety Risks
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ IĻğƌƷŷ ğƓķ ƭğŅĻƷǤ ƩźƭƉƭ Ʒƚ ĭźƷǤ ƭƷğŅŅ ƷŷğƷ ǞƚƩƉ ƚǒƷķƚƚƩƭ ğƓķ ƦğƩƷźĭźƦğƓƷƭ źƓ ƚǒƷķƚƚƩ
ĭźƷǤ ƦƩƚŭƩğƒƭ ƭĻƩǝźĭĻƭ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ ĻǣƷƩĻƒĻ ŷĻğƷ ğƓķ ĭŷğƓŭźƓŭ ķźƭĻğƭĻ ǝĻĭƷƚƩƭ͵
Summers in Waterloo Region can be expected to
warm significantly, particularly under a business-as-
usual global emissions scenario. Mean summer
temperatures may rise by 3.1°C by the 2050s and
5.3°C by the 2080s, compared to the 1990s
observed summer mean temperature of 18.8°C.
More dangerous for workers, however, is the
projected increase in the number of very warm
days, defined as maximum daily temperatures in
Credit: CBC News
excess of 30°C (not including humidex or the urban
heat island effect) from the observed 1990s average of 10.1 per year. On the current trajectory, this
number is likely to increase to 25 per year by the 2050s and 59 by the 2080s. Under these
circumstances, summer conditions in Waterloo Region can be expected to more closely mirror those
currently experienced in Southern Florida.
Increases in summer temperatures present several occupational health and safety threats for outdoor
the consequences of heat stress. High temperatures, high humidity, lack of shade and minimal air
movement both indoors and outdoors health at risk, causing heat-related
illnesses. These illnesses range from minor heat rashes and muscle cramps, to hot weather emergencies
like heat exhaustion and heat stroke. When there is high relative air humidity, sweat evaporation and,
consequently, may also be compromised, causing body temperature
to rise more quickly. Carrying out prolonged physical activity in a hot, humid environment increases the
risks of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
In absence of immediate medical attention, heat stroke could be fatal. Heat stroke fatalities do occur
every summer in Canada. A study released by Toronto Public Health and Environment Canada predicts
heat-related mortalities within the city of Toronto are likely to double by 2050 and triple by 2080 as a
result of global warming. While a direct comparison to Waterloo Region cannot be drawn, this
projection does highlight potential risks.
Heat can also aggravate pre-existing conditions by placing stress on already strained body systems,
particularly for people who have chronic cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. In addition, high
temperature conditions can expose workers to an increased risk of bodily harm and injury, caused by
fatigue and reduced vigilance. Work performed at a high ambient temperature can change worker skills
and capacities when physical tasks are involved; this in turn can have consequences on work capacity,
productivity, and safety. The physical discomfort associated with an increase in body temperature can
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procedures and reducing vigilance during the performance of dangerous tasks. Heat-induced
dehydration has also been linked to cognitive performance, visual motor capacities, and vigilance.
On the individual level, heat tolerance levels seem to diminish in people over 45 years of age because
physical activity is more demanding on their bodies. In addition, workers with health problems (such as
heart disease, hypertension, or blood circulation problems), workers who are overweight, pregnant, on
sodium-restricted diets or who take certain medications are more likely to have problems following
excessive heat exposure.
Climate change may result in deteriorating air quality within Waterloo Region. Increasing temperatures
and stagnant air masses may foster the increase of airborne concentrations of pollutants such as
ground-level ozone, which would likely increase incidences and exacerbate the symptoms of respiratory
and cardiovascular diseases. A 2008 report by the Ontario Medical Association suggests that air
pollution was a contributing factor in the deaths of 348 citizens of Waterloo Region the preceding year.
While this number is likely lower today -out and increased emissions
standards for vehicles increasing ozone concentrations may reverse that trend, particularly among at-
risk populations and those chronically exposed.
Climate change is already being partially attributed as a cause for changing disease vectors in Canada.
Between 2009 and 2015, the reported cases of Lyme Disease in Canada rose from 140 to more than 700,
figures which healthcare officials suggest are likely under-reported. Federal health agencies suggest that
raising global temperatures are at least partly to blame for the northward spread of blacklegged (deer)
tick populations, the disease vector for Lyme. Southern Ontario is currently the most at-risk region in
Canada, and as the climate continues to warm the reproductive value of ticks in the area is likely to
increase, causing population growth and increasing the risk of contracting tick-spread diseases like
Lyme. Dr. Gregory Taylor, Canada's chief public health officer, indicted in 2006 that model projections
suggest that numbers of reported Lyme cases could increase to 10,000-20,000 per year nationally.
Blacklegged ticks are most active during the summer, and live in woodlands, tall grasses and bushes,
thriving in wet environments. The Province of Ontario suggests that if you live, work in or frequent
wooded areas, you should:
Wear light-coloured clothing so ticks can be easily
spotted
Wear long sleeves and long pants, and tuck pants
into socks
Use bug repellent containing DEET
Have someone inspect for any attached ticks
Keep grass mowed short
Trim bushes and tree branches to let in sunlight
(ticks avoid hot, dry locations)
Credit: CBC News
Create a border of gravel or woodchips one meter or
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Issue Brief #11: Damage to Parks, Trails and Natural Areas
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ 5ğƒğŭĻ ƚ ƦğƩƉƭͲ ƷƩğźƌƭͲ ğƓķ ƓğƷǒƩğƌ ğƩĻğƭ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ ƌƚƓŭĻƩͲ ķƩźĻƩ ğƓķ ŷƚƷƷĻƩ ŷĻğƷ ǞğǝĻƭ
ğƓķ ƭĻǝĻƩĻ ŅƌƚƚķźƓŭ͵
The changing nature of
extreme events in Waterloo
Region is likely to stress and
damage municipal parks,
trails and natural areas. By
the 2050s, Waterloo Region
is projected to experience
1.5-2 more days of extreme
rainfall events measured
as over 25mm/day
compared to the observed
1971- 2007 average of 5. In
addition, extreme rainfall
Credit: CTV News Kitchener
events of all measured return
periods between 2-year and 100-year are projected to intensify by at least 17-20% by the 2020s
compared to the aforementioned baseline. The most severe risk for intensification is projected to occur
during high return period rainfall events, which are already the most hazardous to human and natural
systems. 50 and 100-year storms could intensify by as much as 57% and 44%, respectively, by the 2020s.
Recent storm events of lesser magnitude have already been found to exceed localized drainage capacity,
inducing road, parking lot and building flooding, suggesting that the realization intensified high-
magnitude, low-frequency events will significantly exacerbate flood risk.
Flooding can have adverse impacts in natural areas. Prolonged inundation or saturation can result in
root systems being unable to capture adequate oxygen to sustain the plant, particularly among less
tolerant species, resulting in death and decay of large portions of a tree's root system. During flooding,
some species can maintain normal roots in an active or dormant condition; others rely upon new
secondary and adventitious roots that may form from the root collar or on the trunk near the water
surface. Species unable to either maintain normal roots or grow new ones can quickly die. That said,
natural areas are an incredibly useful means by which to offset urban flood risk, regardless of possible
interruptions to citizen use. Natural systems tend to be much more resilient to flood impacts than built
environments, and the diversion of runoff beyond storm sewer capacity to parkland, potentially
inducing intentional flooding, can be used to minimize cumulative damages to the municipal
environment.
Flooding may also wash out natural trails, leading to impassibility and costly repairs. For instance, heavy
November rains in the area of Sydney, Nova Scotia caused approximately $86,000 worth of damage to
two popular hiking trains in 2016, including downed trees, eroded paths and the unmooring of bridges
and boardwalks.
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Floodwaters drained into waterways may result in significant bank erosion. High height and velocity
flows increases water friction along stream banks, resulting in the bank itself eroding and being carried
downstream. Erosion can also by accelerated by the inundation of banks followed by rapid drops in flow
after flooding. Erosion, particularly as a result of repeated flooding, can cause significant changes in
bank characteristics, threatening near-stream developments. Measures which can increase bank
resiliency include reductions in the percentage of impervious surfaces along banks, the use of more
porous materials such as gravel and grasses to form banks, and stream bank stabilization practices such
as not mowing to the edge of the river bank and planting deep rooted plants and grasses.
Waterloo Region may expect up to 40% more freezing rain by the 2050s, which places significant weight
stress on trees. Repeat exposure to significant weight loads is likely to stress weak branch junctures and
develop vulnerable damaged points, causing limbs to fall. Trees with shallow or restricted root
structures are also at risk of toppling. The frequency of wind gusts in excess of 70km/hour is projected
to increase by 20-40% by the end of this century, similarly risking tree damage. These impacts are likely
to reduce the usability of parks, trails and natural areas in the immediate aftermath, and increase
maintenance needs by Environmental Services.
Projected increases in summer temperatures and the number of days in excess of 30°C will induce
increases in evapotranspiration, drying out soil. Without adequate moisture, significant plant stress may
occur, inducing mortalities of vulnerable species. In addition, the top layers of dry soil under hot, sunny
events and exacerbating flood risk, as well as leading to the compaction of soils where walked upon,
inhibiting future plant growth.
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Issue Brief #12: Ecological Damage to Natural Heritage Systems
LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ ĻğƭĻķ ǞğƷĻƩ
ƷĻƒƦĻƩğƷǒƩĻƭͲ źƓĭƩĻğƭĻķ ĻǝğƦƚƩğƷźƚƓͲ ƒƚƩĻ ĻǣƷƩĻƒĻ ŷĻğƷ ǞğǝĻƭͲ ğƓķ ŅƌƚƚķźƓŭ͵
The projected changes in the characteristics of
both climatic norms and extremes threaten the
ecological aspects of regional natural heritage
systems, defined by the province as s
made up of natural heritage features and areas,
and linkages intended to provide connectivity
(at the regional or site level) and support
natural processes which are necessary to
maintain biological and geological diversity,
natural functions, viable populations of
indigenous species and ecosystems.Climate
change is likely to produce increased
frequency, duration, and intensity of
disturbances (such as floods or grass fires), and
greater extremes in climate and weather events (e.g., intense precipitation, dry conditions, windstorms,
ice storms, and lightning), all of which may result in ecological impacts.
Water availability to forest plants varies with precipitation, evaporative demand and the capacity of the
soil to store water, each of which may be impacted by climate change. The soil water balance of
forested sites is important because water availability strongly affects forest productivity. A rough
approximation can be made that in Southern Ontario, 50% of rainfall will be absorbed by the soil, and
approximately 50% will be lost to runoff and evaporation, depending on saturation level, the type of soil
and whether it has been baked under dry conditions. However, even after heavy rains, water is usually
only easily available for trees for a few days. Extended hot, dry conditions are likely to result in increased
instances of tree mortality in the interim, beginning with more sensitive tree species, and may induce
significant ecological changes on longer timescales among species poorly adapted to changing
conditions. Water-stressed vegetation is also more susceptible to fire. These impacts can be mitigated
by aggressive tree breeding to increase resistance to insect pests or to speed adaptation to the
emerging climate; controlling competing vegetation (e.g., via thinning, weed control) to reduce stress to
regenerating trees and help produce desired species composition in the future forest; and maintenance
cutting to encourage healthy stands.
Decreasing water levels and increasing water temperatures may have significant impacts on regional
aquatic ecology, the result of higher sustained temperatures and very hot days, and the corresponding
increase in evapotranspiration. Nesting sites for waterfowl will become more accessible to predators
and fish and amphibian species will be threatened as a result of surface water temperature increases.
Slow-moving, high temperature waterways, particularly those in agricultural regions, are more likely to
become eutrophicated, decreasing available dissolved oxygen for aquatic species. These impacts may
result in adverse consequences for regional aquatic biodiversity.
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More significant rainfall events may threaten ecological integrity in a few ways. In addition to physical
damage caused by inundation or fast-moving waters, waters diverted via storm sewers may result in
pollution loading in waterways. Storm sewers drain untreated urban runoff into draining waterways,
primarily the Grand River. While travelling over impermeable urban surfaces, runoff picks up
contaminants like gasoline; motor oil; construction sediments; heavy metals such as nickel, copper, zinc,
cadmium, and lead; trash and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from roadways and parking lots,
as well as fertilizers and pesticides from lawns. In agricultural areas, heavy rains are likely to cause
runoff of fertilizers, pesticides other mineral-rich products. The infusion and depositing of these
contaminants in waterways may result in adverse impacts to aquatic species.
Climate change may also exacerbate the risk of harmful insects and diseases. Persistent summer dry
conditions, for instance, led to extensive damage of hickory forests in Southern Ontario by the hickory
bark beetle between 2001 and 2005. While a return to more normal conditions has allowed a successive
recovery, such impacts could occur again. Likewise, while higher annual temperatures may increase the
growing season for trees, they may also induce a longer breeding season for insects which might
become pests if factors which keep their populations in check do not keep pace. Many of the most
stressed host before infection or disease expression occurs. For instance, sustained dry roots may result
in root decay fungus in shallow roots. Species ill-adapt to changing climate conditions may face more
rapid declines because of increased susceptibility to pests and/or diseases.
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