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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCAO-17-004 - Corporate Climate Action Plan - Phase 1 REPORT TO: Planning & Strategic Initiatives Committee DATE OF MEETING: February 13, 2017 SUBMITTED BY: Laurie Majcher, Manager of Strategy & Business Planning, 519-741-2200 ext. 7817 PREPARED BY: Laurie Majcher, Manager of Strategy & Business Planning, 519-741-2200 ext. 7817 WARD (S) INVOLVED: All DATE OF REPORT: January 31, 2017 REPORT NO.: CAO-17-004 SUBJECT:City of Kitchener Corporate Climate Action Plan – Phase 1 __________________________________________________________________________________________ RECOMMENDATION: WHEREAS, scientific consensus has developed that carbon dioxide (CO) and other 2 greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere have a profound effect on the Earth’s climate; and WHEREAS, the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) indicate that municipalities directly and indirectly affect 44 per cent of Canada’s total greenhouse gas emissions and therefore have an important role to play in mitigating this impact on the climate; and WHEREAS, local government actions taken to prepare for climate change impacts provide multiple local benefits by building a more resilient economy, and by helping to reduce the physical impacts and costs to people, property and resources associated with a changing climate. THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener adopt an 8 per cent corporate GHG reduction target from 2016 emissions levels by the end of 2026, and staff be directed to submit it for consideration to the Federation of Canadian Municipalities as fulfillment of corporate milestone #2 of the Partners for Climate Protection Program; BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener make a commitment to climate change adaptation planning through the five-milestone framework presented in ICLEI’s Changing Climate, Changing Communities methodology; and BE IT FINALLY RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener establishes the Corporate Climate Action Plan Steering Committee, as set out in Appendix B of CAO report CAO-17-004, to act as an advisory body to the Corporate Leadership Team and Council recommending both mitigation and adaptation measures for the corporation that are practical, affordable and appropriate. *** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. *** Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance. 2 - 1 BACKGROUND: On April 23, 2014, Council directed staff to prepare terms of reference for an integrated climate action plan for the City of Kitchener that would address both corporate mitigation and adaptation strategies, and report back to Council. On November 16, 2015, Council approved the terms of reference for the Corporate Climate Action Plan to be included on the 2016-2019 business plan, including the following principles: continue to use the PCP framework to plan and manage the City’s progress on GHG reductions; adopt the ICLEI climate change adaptation methodology to plan and manage the City’s progress on climate change adaptation strategies exploring actions that meet both mitigation and adaptation objectives; and explore opportunities to work collaboratively with the Region of Waterloo, the City of Waterloo, the City of Cambridge and other community stakeholders on the BARC program using the ICLEI BARC Program. The approved terms of reference for the City of Kitchener corporate climate action plan identifies the following key components that will be included for Council approval in 2018: 1. A vision for the City of Kitchener’s corporate climate action plan; 2. Mitigation and adaptation goals for the next 10 years, including a corporate greenhouse gas reduction target for the City of Kitchener; 3. A list of priority mitigation and adaptation actions that will contribute to the City’s climate action goals, including existing and new measures to be implemented; 4. A detailed implementation plan that includes: estimated costs, funding sources, responsibilities, and timelines; and 5. A plan for monitoring the implementation status of mitigation and adaptation actions and progress towards the corporate emissions reduction target. This is the first of a series of three reports that will be presented to Council for approval leading up to the presentation of a comprehensive Corporate Climate Action Plan for the City of Kitchener in the spring of 2018.Each report represents the completion of one or more major milestones in the planning process and will be submitted to the Federation of Canadian Municipalities for recognition under the Partners for Climate Protection Program. Although this project is specific to the city’s corporate operations, Kitchener is proud to be a part of the ClimateActionWR collaboration that has championed the development of Waterloo Region's first-ever community action plan on climate change. The City of Kitchener endorsed the plan in 2013 and made a commitment to achieve a community greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 2010 levels by 2020. The City of Kitchener is also participating in the development of a community climate adaptation plan being led by the Region of Waterloo, collaborating with multiple stakeholders 2 - 2 from across the Region to develop a comprehensive plan that addresses impacts from a community perspective. A diagram is included in Appendix A showing the interconnections between this plan and the other initiatives that the City of Kitchener is actively engaged with related to climate change. REPORT: At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first- ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. The agreement sets out a global action plan to put the world on track to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to less CC than 2° above pre-industrial levels and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°. The agreement recognises the importance of averting, minimising and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change and it acknowledges the need to cooperate and enhance the understanding, action and support in different areas such as early warning systems, emergency preparedness and risk insurance. Canada is among the 195 signatories to the international climate agreement, making a commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 30 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. The Ontario Climate Change Action Plan and cap and trade program form the backbone of the provincial strategy to cut GHG emissions by 37 per cent from 1990 levels by 2030. The agreement recognizes the role of cities in addressing climate change and invites them to scale up their efforts and support actions to reduce emissions; build resilience and decrease vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change; and uphold and promote regional and international cooperation. Citizens have consistently told us that protecting the environment should be one of the top three priorities for the City. The Environics survey results for 2013 indicates that 89 per cent of citizens want the City to focus on reducing the environmental impact of City operations as a high priority for this term of Council. The City of Kitchener joined the Partners for Climate Protection program 20 years ago, participating in a network of more than 280 local governments that are committed to acting on climate change. Since that time, the City has implemented a number of important initiatives to manage energy and reduce GHG emissions, including: construction of new LEED buildings; solar roof at the Kitchener Operations Facility; LED lighting retrofits; building control systems; upgrades to air conditioning and dehumidifiers; new insulation and waste heat recovery systems; ISO 14001 certification for the fleet; electric golf carts; electric motorcycles for By-law Enforcement; driver training and low carbon fuels for the fleet; and waste diversion programs in City facilities. 2 - 3 The City’s plan to continue to reduce corporate GHG emissions will only be achieved through energy and waste management initiatives that are practical, affordable, and reasonable within our organizational context. Every city has unique circumstances that create opportunities and constraints on what can be achieved within a 10 year period related to: the age and condition of City assets; the demand for new facilities and services; available resources and budget; and the level of change readiness within the organization. In 2015, the City of Kitchener buildings and operations produced 13,027 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (COe). Corporate GHG emissions are expected to increase as much as 2 15% over the next 10 years to respond to growth pressures, with an annual GHG emissions of 15,000 tCOe by the end of 2026 based on a business as usual scenario. 2 At this stage in the planning process it is clear that opportunities exist to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions over the next 10 years. A cursory evaluation of the potential for GHG reductions in the City’s buildings, fleet, public lighting, pumping stations and waste from operations suggests that an 8 per cent reduction in GHG emissions from 2016 levels within 10 years is an achievable but ambitious target. A great deal of uncertainty remains around specific strategies that could be implemented, the investment that would be required and the potential results that can be achieved (Appendix B). The proposed 8 per cent GHG emissions reduction target from 2016 levels by the end of 2026 needs to be viewed as a goalpost for the organization to motivate progress. The following principles will be used to guide the development of the action plan to ensure that recommendations for action are practical, affordable and reasonable for the City of Kitchener over the next 10 years: 1. New investments in capital projects to reduce corporate GHG emissions will need to achieve a payback period of 10 years or less; 2. Actions will be targeted at fully leveraging all available funding programs and incentives from other orders of government provided there is alignment with our objectives and the benefits exceed the cost of participation; and 3. Decisions to fund both capital and operating investments to achieve GHG reductions will be made through the regular budget cycle and within the context of all other competing priorities and the City’s financial policies. 2 - 4 ALIGNMENT WITH CITY OF KITCHENER STRATEGIC PLAN: Strategic Priority: Sustainable Environment and Infrastructure Strategy: #4.3 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption in all areas of city operations. Strategic Action: SE4 Corporate Climate Action Plan FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: Available budget is the single largest factor determining how much corporate emissions can be reduced. Implementing a corporate plan will involve new capital costs and, depending on its ambition, potential additional staff resources. Without properly resourcing to the level of the reduction target, action will be delayed or not implemented and the City will miss its targets. The proposed Corporate Climate Action Plan that will be presented to Council in the spring of 2018 will include cost estimates and funding sources. Decisions to fund proposed operating and/or capital investments to achieve GHG reductions will be made through the regular budget cycle and within the context of all other competing priorities and the city’s financial policies. COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT: INFORM – This report has been posted to the City’s website with the agenda in advance of the council / committee meeting. CONSULT – members of the Environmental Committee have been consulted on the recommendation of this report on January 19, 2017. Following questions and answers, the Environmental Committee endorsed the recommended 8 per cent corporate GHG emissions reduction target for the next 10 years and they encourage the City of Kitchener to aspire to do more than that in the long-term. The environmental committee will be kept informed of the progress of this project and additional opportunities to engage the Environmental Committee throughout the process will be explored as the project moves forward. ACKNOWLEDGED BY: Jeff Willmer, CAO Attachments: Appendix A – City of Kitchener’s Role in Climate Change within the Region of Waterloo Appendix B – Corporate Climate Action Plan – Phase 1 2 - 5 2 - 6 CORPORATE CLIMATE ACTION PLAN EMISSIONS TARGETS AND Phase 1 ADAPTATION COMMITMENT 2 - 7 2 - 8 0±¤¥ ¢¤ The City of Kitchener recognizes climate the completion of Milestone #1 of the ICLEI change as a global issue that can be Adaptation Methodology with the initiation addressed in part at the local level. The of the adaptation planning process. City continues it leadership role in The second report on the Corporate Climate environmental sustainability practices Action Plan, expected to be presented to through the development of a Corporate Council in September 2017, will include the Climate Action Plan that integrates both high level strategies for the proposed mitigation and adaptation strategies into Corporate Energy Management Plan and the day-to-day operations. results of the corporate climate change While reducing the release of greenhouse vulnerability and risk assessments. This gases remains our first priority, it is report, when approved by Council, will apparent that some degree of climate provide clear direction on priorities to be change has already begun. In developing included in the Corporate Climate Action adaptation strategies, the City of Kitchener Plan and will result in the completion of is taking steps to reduce negative impacts Milestone #2 of the ICLEI Adaptation associated with the realities of a changing Methodology. climate while proceeding with actions The final report to Council, expected to be designed to combat further change. completed by March 2018, will include the This is the first of a series of three reports proposed Corporate Climate Action Plan. that will be presented to Council for The proposed plan will include: a list of approval leading up to the presentation of a priority mitigation and adaptation actions; a comprehensive Corporate Climate Action detailed implementation plan; and, a Plan for the City of Kitchener early next process for monitoring and reporting on the year. Each report represents the implementation status of the Action Plan, completion of one or more major milestones and updating the plan regularly. in the planning process and will be Although this project is specific to the C submitted to the Federation of Canadian corporate operations, Kitchener is proud to Municipalities for recognition under the be a part of the ClimateActionWR Partners for Climate Protection Program. collaboration that has championed the Over 280 local governments across Canada development of Waterloo Region's first-ever have committed to achieving the five community action plan on climate change. milestones for Partners for Climate The City of Kitchener endorsed the plan in Protection (PCP) and more than 1,100 2013 and made a commitment to a communities around the world have community greenhouse gas reduction target international network of 6 per cent below 2010 levels by 2020. of Cities for Climate Protection. The City of Kitchener is also participating in In 2013, the City of Kitchener was the development of a community climate recognized by the Federation of Canadian adaptation plan for the Region of Waterloo, Municipalities for completing Milestone #1 collaborating with multiple stakeholders to of the PCP Program with the submission of develop a comprehensive plan that the corporate GHG Inventory for 2010. addresses impacts across all sectors. Once submitted, this report will result in the - Setting an emissions reduction target, as well as 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener ii 2 - 9 #®­³¤­³² 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change 1 1.2 The Paris Climate Accord and the Role of Cities 2 1.3 Partners for Climate Protection 2 1.4 Changing Climate Changing Communities 3 2 Corporate Greenhouse Gas Inventory 5 2.1 Background 5 2.2 Inventory Summary 6 2.3 Buildings 7 2.4 Vehicle Fleet 8 2.5 Outdoor Lighting 8 2.6 Wastewater Pumping Stations 9 2.7 Corporate Waste 9 2.8 GHG Emissions by Source 9 3 GHG Emissions Reduction Target 10 3.1 Background 10 3.2 Federal and Provincial GHG Emissions Reduction Targets 10 3.3 Methodology for Setting a GHG Emissions Reduction Target 11 3.4 Setting a Practical, Affordable and Reasonable Target 11 3.5 Recommended GHG Emissions Reduction Target 16 4 Planning to Adapt to Climate Change 18 4.1 Introduction 18 4.2 Corporate Adaptation Planning Scope of Work 19 4.3 Preliminary Climate Change Impacts 19 4.4 Assessing Adaptive Capacity and Identifying Risks 21 5 Commitment to Move Forward 22 5.1 Corporate Climate Action Plan Steering Committee 22 5.2 Proposed Council Resolution 23 APPENDIX Climate Change Issue Briefs 24 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener iii 2 - 10 1 Introduction 1.1 Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Much like the glass of a greenhouse, gases in our atmosphere sustain life on Earth by trapping the sun's heat. These gases allow the sun's rays to pass through and warm the earth, but prevent this warmth from escaping our atmosphere into space. Without naturally-occurring, heat-trapping gases - mainly water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane - Earth would be too cold to sustain life as we know it. The danger lies in the rapid increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that intensify this natural greenhouse effect. For thousands of years, the global carbon supply was essentially stable as natural processes removed as much carbon as they released. Modern human activity - burning fossil fuels, deforestation, intensive agriculture - has added huge quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is the main contributor to climate change, especially through the burning of fossil fuels. Today's atmosphere contains 42 per cent more carbon dioxide than it did at the start of the industrial era. Levels of methane and carbon dioxide are the highest they have been in nearly half a million years. Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering sooner. Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result from global climate change are now occurring: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves. Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat-s climate is to those emissions. Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index This graph illustrates the change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average Goddard Institute for Space Studies temperatures. The 10 warmest years in the 134-year record all have occurred since 2000, with the exception of 1998. The year 2016 ranks as the warmest on record. (Source: NASA/GISS). Localized climate projections for Waterloo Region, prepared by the Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change (IC3) and the University of Waterloo, indicate that we can expect 40 per cent more freezing rain events by 2050; rainfall intensities are projected to increase with large-magnitude rainfall events expected to occur more frequently, and more wind gust events are expected as both large-scale frontal storms and local convective windstorms (i.e., damaging downdrafts) are projected to occur 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 1 - 2 - 11 more frequently. The number of days with extreme heat is projected to more than triple to 1.2 The Paris Climate Accord and the Role of Cities The Paris climate summit, known as COP 21, took place in November-December 2015. The temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius. Canada is among the 191 signatories to the international climate agreement, making a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. The agreement took effect on November 4, 2016. Cities were a significant actor in this process and now are positioned to play a key role in the implementation of the Paris outcome. Over 400 mayors were present to call for a more direct involvement in the negotiations, noting that any agreement resulting from COP21 would need to be implemented at the local level, as well as to stress that cities can play a central and fundamental role in defining and implementing innovative solutions to reduce the causes and the effects of climate change both locally and globally. on, consume two- energy, and produce 70 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. And this trend will only continue: by 2050, 66 per cent of the 10 billion people living on earth will be urban dwellers. While rapid urbanization brings tremendous opportunities for growth and prosperity, it has also posed unprecedented challenges to our citiesand the people who live in them. The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate unequivocally showed that moving on to a low-carbon climate-resilient pathway will deliver faster rises in living standards and more sustainable long- term economic growth than the high-carbon alternative. Cities can be instrumental in working with their citizens to build a shared vision for their community that supports the agenda necessary to meet the targets in the Paris agreement, building a shared understanding that local climate action increases the health, wellbeing and more green space, bike lanes and pedestrian zones; greater resilience to withstand extreme weather events; and energy efficiencies that bring cost savings that can be channeled to meet other societal needs. At the corporate level, cities have the opportunity to lead by example with policies and practices that support the sustainability and resiliency of their operations. 1.3 Partners for Climate Protection Launched in 1994, the Partners for Climate Protection (PCP) program is now a network of more than 280 local governments that are committed to acting on climate change. The PCP program is a partnership between the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) and ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI)ities for Climate Protection (CCP) network, which involves more than 1,000 communities worldwide. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 2 - 2 - 12 The PCP program empowers municipalities to integrate climate change issues into their decisions and to identify strategic opportunities to reduce emissions, improve quality of life and grow local economies. PCP makes use of a framework consisting of 5 performance-focused milestones to help members create GHG inventories, set realistic and achievable reduction targets, develop and deliver local action plans, and measure their progress. In 1997, the City of Kitchener became a member of the PCP Program. Kitchener has implemented many initiatives since that time - both large and small to achieve reductions in the production of greenhouse gases (GHG). Examples include: construction of new LEED buildings; solar roof at the Kitchener Operations Facility; LED lighting retrofits; building control systems; upgrades to air conditioning and dehumidifiers; new insulation and waste heat recovery systems; ISO 14001 certification for the fleet; electric golf carts; electric motorcycles for By-law Enforcement; driver training and low carbon fuels for the fleet; and waste diversion programs in City facilities. In 2013, the City of Kitchener was recognized by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities for completing Milestone #1 of the PCP Program with the submission of the corporate GHG Inventory for 2010. The next milestone for the City of Kitchener is to set a 10 year Corporate GHG emissions reduction target. Milestone #5 Milestone #1 Milestone #2 Milestone #3 Milestone #4 GHG Set GHG Develop Implement Measure & Emissions Reduction Climate Action Climate Action Monitor Inventory Target Plan Plan setting a strategic direction and providing a starting point from which to track progress. In many cases, municipalities will set multiple targets with increasing ambition over time. In 1989, Toronto became the first municipality in the world to set a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction population, have reached Milestone 2 of the Partners for Climate Protection (PCP) program by adopting a GHG reduction target. Many others have set targets outside of the PCP program. The PCP program reports annually on best practices with leading-edge examples of climate change action planning development and implementation in municipalities of all sizes and regions, including options and sources of innovative funding structures. PCP tools and resources support municipalities throughout the process. 1.4 Changing Climate Changing Communities Some additional degree of climate change is unavoidable and will have significant economic, social and environmental impacts on Canadian communities, even after introducing significant 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 3 - 2 - 13 measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To reduce the negative impacts of this change and to take advantage of new opportunities presented, we will need to adapt. Investments in community infrastructure, emergency planning and resource management (urban forests, source water) are all based on expected variations in weather conditions, in response to climate data collected over time. A changing climate means that expected patterns of variability in the weather-temperature, precipitation, extreme storms and other events-no longer apply. Under such conditions, infrastructure fails to performs as it should; new forest pests can migrate and decimate local urban forests; frequent heat waves put vulnerable populations at risk-and the list goes on. Local governments are left to deal with the social, environmental and economic consequences of these changes to their communities, often at high cost. Timely adaptation can improve community resilience and reduce the severity of these effects over time. As local governments are responsible for key service areas that will be a affected by climate change: infrastructure, parks and recreation, health, and transportation, they are on the front lines of preparing for climate change impacts and have a responsibility to respond through strategic adaptation planning. Climate change may affect a broad range of municipal assets and government services, operations and policy areas, and preparing for climate change is a matter of risk management and good governance. Municipal governments may assist with the safety, health and welfare of their communities both now and in the future. Climate change awareness is strengthening the discussion into the prospects of what municipalities may do to assist in reducing the possibilities of liability. It is important for municipalities to review all possible aspects within their control to eliminate or reduce the adverse effects of climate change which may affects those in the community. This can be accomplished by reviewing their infrastructure against the adaptation plans to design for the future while reviewing their current system. Adaptation is the principal way to deal with the impacts of a changing climate. It involves taking practical actions to manage risks from climate impacts, protect communities and strengthen the resilience of the economy. methodology changing climate, changing communities - provides a straightforward approach to adaptation planning using a five-milestone framework similar to the PCP program. Each milestone represents a fundamental step in the adaptation planning process, starting with the initiation of adaptation efforts and culminating with a monitoring and review process that analyzes the successes and reviews the challenges of the adaptation plan and its implementation. The City of Kitchener Climate Action Plan will integrate the ICLEI adaptation methodology with the PCP framework to develop an action plan that includes both strategies to reduce the carbon footprint of city operations and address the risks associated with the impacts of climate change. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 4 - 2 - 14 2 Corporate Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2.1 Background The purpose of the corporate GHG inventory is to establish a baseline that can be used to set a future GHG emissions reduction target, establish a data collection protocol to be used for annual corporate GHG inventories going forward, and provide guidance for the development of a corporate sustainability plan. In 2013, the City of Kitchener developed a corporate GHG inventory for 2010 as part of its ongoing commitment to provide leadership and sustainable municipal services for its community and citizens. The inventory was submitted to FCM to meet the requirements of milestone #1 under the PCP program and set a baseline for setting a target for the future. Using the information and tools that were available at the time, it was estimated that the corporate emissions for the City of Kitchener in 2010 was 13,058 tonnes COe. 2 This 2015 Corporate GHG inventory was completed to gauge how the and GHG emissions have changed in the past five years as context for setting a realistic and achievable target. A number of changes were made to the model that was used to quantify the energy consumption data has improved since 2010. These are improvements that will carry forward in annual updates to the GHG inventory so that change can be monitored more regularly. Additional improvements will need to be made to GHG inventory framework is similar but not directly comparable to the 2010 inventory, the city will use 2016 data for establishing a baseline for corporate GHG emissions reductions. The data for the 2015 corporate GHG inventory was obtained from monthly invoices for electricity and natural gas, and comprehensive fuel consumption records for the corporate fleet and golf courses. Business travel or personal vehicle usage on city business has not been included in this inventory, but may be considered as part of the 2016 inventory update. All records have been reviewed and verified for accuracy. Due to significant changes in the model used to estimate COe from waste, 2015 waste generated from city operations was estimated at 2 the same level as reported for 2010 for the purposes of this inventory. A more comprehensive review of data will be required next year and a more accurate estimate will be reported in the 2016 corporate GHG inventory. Fuel consumption data was converted to energy (gigajoules) consumption and GHG emissions (COe) using the conversion factors provided by the PCP online inventory tool. Greenhouse gas 2 (GHG) accounting quantifies carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions which are all recognized as key contributors to climate change. GHG emissions measured in terms of equivalent tonnes of CO are one of the most highly accepted and widely used environmental 2 impact measurements. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 5 - 2 - 15 Energy generated from the solar roof on the Kitchener Operations Facility, and any additional solar arrays that the city may install, are important contributions to the provincial GHG reduction targets by introducing renewable energy into the grid. THE PCP program does not recognize the generation of renewable energy as an offset to corporate emissions in our GHG Inventory if the energy is not directly used by city operations. However, the City should continue to take advantage of opportunities to generate renewable energy as part of our commitment to our community and provincial targets. 2.2 Inventory Summary In 2015, the City of Kitchener spent approximately $7,860,000 on electricity, natural gas, propane, gasoline and diesel/biodiesel for the operation of city facilities and the delivery of services to the community. City of Kitchener buildings and operations consumed 300,666 GJ of energy, and produced 13,027 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (COe) in 2015. 2 accounting for 64.9 per cent of total corporate energy consumption in 2015 and more than half of all GHG emissions. While fleet energy consumption represents 18.9 per cent of total energy consumption it accounts for more than 30 per cent of the total corporate GHG emissions because COe emissions from the burning of gasoline and diesel fuel is approximately 4x higher 2 than for electricity. The solid waste sector is the only sector in the inventory in which emissions are not calculated based on burning fuel directly or indirectly in the generation of electricity. The Corporate Waste sector only includes emissions associated with the decomposition of solid waste. Table 2.1 Energy Consumption & GHG Emissions by Sector for 2015 Total Total Energy Emissions Sector % Total % Total (GJ) Energy (t COe) Emissions 2 Buildings 195,248 64.9% 7,110 54.6% Fleet 56,807 18.9% 4013 30.8% Outdoor Lighting 42,202 14.1% 938 7.2% Pumping Stations 6,409 2.1% 142 1.1% *Waste --- --- 824 6.3% TOTAL 300,666 100% 13,027 100% 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 6 - 2 - 16 2.3 Buildings City buildings account for more than half of all corporate GHG emissions. Buildings included in the GHG Inventory include all City owned and operated buildings where the City has a reasonable level of control or influence over the energy consumption in the building. The inventory includes more than 50 City facilities, including: administrative offices, community centres, parking garages, swimming pools, arenas, fire halls, golf courses, cemeteries, the Kitchener Market and Kiwanis Park, as well as a variety of other small park buildings and storage sheds. Table 2.2 Top 15 City Buildings for GHG Emissions Energy Emissions Carbon % Total Intensity Buildings Building (GJ) (t COe) 2 2 Emissions (COe/m) 2 31,236 1,210 0.041 17.0% 1)Kitchener Operations Facility 33,420 1161 0.038 16.3% 2)The Auditorium 27,257 912 0.024 12.8% 3)City Hall Complex 12,250 419 0.066 5.9% 4)Sportsworld Arena 8,877 385 0.165 5.4% 5)Forest Heights Pool & Library 12,476 381 0.038 5.4% 6)Activa Sportsplex 8,743 371 0.091 5.2% 7)Breithaupt Pool & CC 8,344 302 0.021 4.3% 8)The Kitchener Market 6,919 294 0.129 4.1% 9)Lyll Hallman Pool 4,025 151 0.038 2.1% 10)Fire Headquarters 4,254 134 0.045 1.9% 11)Lions Arena 3,240 112 0.042 1.6% 12)Grand River Arena 2,605 100 0.030 1.4% 13)Rockway Golf Course & Club House 2,690 86 0.033 1.2% 14)Don McLaren Arena 2,176 86 0.033 1.2% 15)Fire Hall #5 & Forest Heights CC TOTAL 168,512 6,104 n/a 85.8% 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 7 - 2 - 17 The four City buildings with the highest GHG emissions - the Kitchener Operation Facility, the Kitchener Memorial Auditorium Complex, City Hall Complex and Sportsworld Arena - account for more than 50 per cent of all GHG emissions from City buildings. The top 15 City buildings (listed above) account for more than 85 per cent of all emissions from City buildings and almost half of the total corporate GHG emissions. Efforts to improve building energy efficiency would have the greatest potential for reductions in these City facilities. 2.4 Vehicle Fleet The fleet sector includes direct emissions from vehicles used by employees of the municipality in the exercise of their duties. This includes fire trucks, golf course mowers, snowplows, maintenance vehicles, and heavy equipment used for operations. In total 597 vehicles were included in the inventory. More than half of the GHG emissions from fleet come from the C 173 heavy duty vehicles, plow trucks and fire truck. Approximately 30 per cent of the energy used by the fleet comes from biodiesel, which produces 7.5 per cent less carbon emissions than regular diesel. Table 2.3 GHG Emissions from the Corporate Fleet Total Energy Emissions Carbon % Fleet Intensity Emissions Vehicle Type (GJ) (t COe) 2 12,846 862 18.0 21.5% Heavy Duty Plows 12,985 843 8.4 21.0% Heavy Duty Vehicles 10,927 685 4.4 17.1% Light Duty Vehicles 6,498 641 8.9 16.0% Off Road Vehicles 5,809 411 9.9 10.2% Fire Trucks 3,913 307 10.2 7.7% Sweepers & Sidewalk Vehicles 1,782 126 2.1 3.1% Mower Equipment 2,046 138 4.6 3.4% Other TOTAL 56,807 4,013 n/a 100% 2.5 Outdoor Lighting The lighting sector includes outdoor lighting sources such as overhead streetlights and traffic signals on or along City roads, lighting in municipal surface parking lots, walkway lighting and lighting in parks and for winter rinks. It should be noted that the City of Kitchener pays for 14 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 8 - 2 - 18 traffic signals but has no control over the design or operation of them. Overall, outdoor lighting consumed 42,202 GJ of energy in 2015 and generated 938 tonnes COe. 2 2.6 Wastewater Pumping Stations Wastewater pumping stations include all sewage pumping stations that are managed and/or operated by the City. Emissions calculated are primarily associated with stationary fuel pumps and lift stations used to dispose of sewage from the community. Emissions related to wastewater may be highly variable in local government operations inventories as they may be influenced by the local topography, which may require the use of pump stations. Overall, wastewater consumed 6,409 GJ of energy and produced 142 tonnes of COe in 2015. 2 2.7 Corporate Waste Even though the City does not own or operate a solid waste disposal facility, it must still account for the solid waste generated as a result of local government operations. In this case, the Corporate Waste sector must include all employee-generated solid waste, as well as waste generated at public facilities, such as community centers, parks or recreation buildings. Facilities that have waste pick-up at the curb have not been included within this inventory as those emissions would be included within the Community GHG Inventory. It is estimated that corporate waste generated by the City in 2015 is responsible for 827 tonnes of COe based on the 2010 waste inventory estimates. This number will be updated when a 2 comprehensive inventory of corporate waste is completed in 2017. 2.8 GHG Emissions by Source The most significant source of the City in City buildings and facilities, generating 39 per cent of total emissions at 5,080 COe tonnes. 2 Electricity was the biggest source of corporate GHG emissions in 2010 and has dropped from 36 per cent to 24 per cent in 2015. This is primarily due to changes in the composition of electric generation in the province, and the elimination of the use of coal to generate electricity, not a reduction in electricity use by the corporation. Chart 2.1 GHG Emissions by Source for 2015 6% Electricity 25% 19% Natural Gas Gasoline 11% Diesel/Biodiesel 39% Propane Waste 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 9 - 2 - 19 3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Target 3.1 Background The 2015 population for the City of Kitchener was estimated at 239,900, and is forecast to grow by 19 per cent within the next 10 years, representing 46,235 new residents. Growth will require the City to build new facilities in developing areas, increase the size of the corporate fleet and expand operations to maintain existing services levels for all citizens. Based on the current carbon footprint of the organization and a business as usual scenario, the City could expect corporate energy consumption and GHG emissions to increase as much as 15 per cent or more over the next 10 years, with an estimated annual GHG emissions of 15,000 tonnes COe 2 by the end of 2026. Growth pressures create difficult challenges when trying to achieve an absolute reduction in GHG emissions. An absolute 8 per cent reduction from 2016 levels can require an overall 20 per cent reduction in energy intensity across the corporation as the operation expands. Nevertheless, growth can also provide significant opportunities for positive change. As new investments are made in the community they can be designed to take advantage of best practices in energy efficiency and sustainable design. All new buildings will be significantly more energy efficient than older buildings due to changes in the building code and the implementation of LEED design features. Fleet vehicles will become more fuel efficient and fuels will become cleaner over time. The City of Kitchener has already made a commitment to the conversion of streetlights to LED technology, which is expected to reduce GHG emissions by approximately 500 tonnes COe 2 when fully implemented. All of these changes, and many more that are expected to be realized over the next ten years, will help to move the City GHG emissions in the future. 3.2 Federal and Provincial GHG Emissions Reduction Targets In 2013, Canada's GHG emissions were 3.1 per cent lower than 2005 levels while the economy grew by 12.9 per cent over the same time period. Canada's per capita GHG emissions have fallen to their lowest levels since tracking began while the economy has continued to grow. Canada is among the 191 signatories to the international climate agreement, making a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. The agreement came into force on November 4, 2016. The national plan to achieve GHG emissions targets is currently being developed. trade program form the backbone of the provincial strategy to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 15 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020, 37 per cent by 2030 and 80 per cent by 2050. The government will report on the plan's implementation annually and renew the plan every five years. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 10 - 2 - 20 3.3 Methodology for Setting a GHG Emissions Reduction Target For PCP recognition of Milestone 2, there are three formal requirements: 1.The target must clearly state whether it is for community or corporate emissions 2.The target must be an overall GHG reduction target in the form - per cent reduction from base year by target year 3.The target must be adopted by council resolution. A top-down aspirational target for the corporation gives staff time to mobilize for action while the plan is being developed. It commitment to climate change and provides direction for staff in the decisions that they make every day. It is not expected to be a prediction of what will happen, but a goal for what the City is committed to making happen. It is meant to challenge the organization to look beyond the obvious and explore innovative solutions that could deliver breakthrough results. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the future that can make it difficult to set a target. Technology continues to improve and innovations are constantly being released in renewable energy generation and low carbon fuels, energy efficient building and vehicles, and carbon capture from exhaust. It is expected, but not yet known, how much funding from federal and provincial climate change programs will be available to cities to take advantage of emission reduction opportunities when the cost may be prohibitive due to municipal budget constraints. 3.4 Setting a Practical, Affordable and Reasonable Target The greenhouse gas reduction target forms the basis of a municipality's program objectives and provides a starting point from which to track progress. reduce GHG emissions will only be achieved through energy management initiatives that are practical, affordable, and reasonable within our organizational context. Every city has unique circumstances that create constraints on how much can be achieved within a ten-year period. Before a target is developed, it is important to assess the current situation, which will affect the and the state of municipal assets is one of the most important things to understand when setting corporate targets. In most cases existing assets will produce the bulk of emissions for many years to come. Consideration must be given to the following factors in setting a target: 1)The Age and Condition of City Assets It may be possible to dramatically reduce energy consumption when older buildings and vehicles are replaced with new ones. However the age and condition of assets determine when they are replaced, and therefore how quickly efficiency can be improved. It may be financially feasible to retrofit older buildings that are not ready to be replaced to increase efficiency, but a strong business case is required that demonstrates a reasonable pay-back period on the up-front capital improvements to justify making the necessary changes. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 11 - 2 - 21 2)Demand for new facilities and the expansion of City services Expectations for service expansion, increases in service levels for existing services and the introduction of new services over the next ten years will drive increases in corporate energy consumption to meet the needs of a growing community. New facilities will increase emissions unless an existing facility is being closed. To achieve an absolute reduction in emissions from current levels will require the City to implement actions that more than off-set the impact of growth related emissions. 3)Budget and resources Available budget is the single largest factor determining how much corporate emissions can be reduced. Implementing a corporate plan will involve new capital costs and, depending on its ambition, potential additional staff resources. Without properly resourcing to the level of the reduction target, action will be delayed or not implemented and the City will miss its targets. From a lifecycle perspective, the savings from carbon and energy management can be very cost-effective in some cases. However, a City that is reluctant to spend money on its assets is unlikely to achieve an aggressive corporate reduction target. The Citypast practice of attempting to maintain property tax rate increases at or below the rate of inflation will be a considerable constraint on the potential for capital improvements and operating investments that reduce corporate GHG emissions. In other words, it is unreasonable to expect that a same time deliver a substantial new program. This is why, in other jurisdictions such as at the Provincial level, entire new revenue streams such as carbon taxes, have been introduced to fund climate change mitigation programs. While this is not an option for Kitchener, it underscores the need to moderate program expectations if they are to be delivered within the current financial framework. 4)Organizational Change Readiness Cities that have been successful in making progress on aggressive targets have made energy conservation a priority for Council and senior management decision making, and the responsibility of every employee. Energy conservation and sustainability practices need to be embedded in the culture of the organization to support behaviours that will drive results. Leadership will be required to encourage the adoption of alternative work procedures and the establishment of new corporate policies and practices that provide direction for day-to-day decision making. A comprehensive change management program may be needed to build awareness and commitment to making the required changes to the way works gets done throughout the organization. The following scenarios were considered in the process of selecting of an appropriate corporate GHG emissions reduction target for the City of Kitchener: 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 12 - 2 - 22 Table 3.2 GHG Emission Reduction Scenarios GHG Examples of Estimated Financial Reduction Impacts Potential Actions Target Energy audits New capital investments which HVAC equipment upgrades or retrofits can be funded with Routine equipment maintenance short/medium term payback Lighting retrofits for all Cityfacilities Moderate periodthrough reduced New LEED buildings (4-8%) operating expenditures LED streetlight conversion Incremental increases in 2 Electric cars in fleet whencost effective 3000 tCOe expenditures on low carbon Anti-idling enforcement annually options for fleet and waste Fleet route optimization by 2026 diversion processes over time Right-sizing vehicles with no payback. Driver training and accountability Actively leverage infrastructure Green procurement policy grants and other funding Recycling programs for all Cityfacilities programs to finance efficiency Employee suggestions and problem upgrades. solving Moderate pressure on the tax rate to fund new costs. In addition to all of the above: Building envelope upgrades/retrofitsNewcapital investments with long term payback period Challenging Aggressive HVAC retrofits (9-15%) Premium paid for low-carbon rating optionswith no pay-back 2 4000 tCOe Increased operating costs for facilities annually new staff resources to initiate Establish an Energy Information System by 2026 and manage new programs Departmental Energy Management Seek out/advocate for new Teams funding options/revenue streams for low carboninitiatives New solar and wind energy projects Deferral of growth-related Corporatechange management projects in the DC Reserve program due to higher costs to Convert tolow carbon fuel for fleet construct new facilities (biodiesel, propane, natural gas) Pressure to issue debt to fund Recyclingfor all public spaces & events capital Curb travel on Citybusiness Increased pressure onthe tax Invest in tree planting/carbon capture rateto fund increasingcosts technologies 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 13 - 2 - 23 GHG Examples of Estimated Financial Reduction Impacts Potential Actions Target In addition to all of the above: New geothermal and heat recovery Significant new capital technologyinvestments in high risk Aggressive investments with no (16% - 30%) payback period 2 Aggressive solar and wind power 6000 tCOe Significant new investments installations to serve Cityoperations in staff positions to seek out annually and evaluate innovative by 2026 Experiment with new low emissions technology technology before proven Increased debtoutside of Premature replacement of vehicles/ the existing debt facilities/equipment to achieve energy philosophy efficiency Increased property taxes Invest in heavy duty electric vehicles (if Increased user fees available) The financial impacts of Reduce the number of Cityfacilities and this scenario are buildingsthat support Cityoperations expected to be Reduce energy demand by cutting unsustainable for the service to the public during peak load organization times Replace HVAC systems to switch from natural gas heating to electricity Cutnon-legislated mobile services to the public Buildings There is potential to reduce GHG emissions from City buildings through improved energy management practices, lighting retrofits, upgrades to more energy efficient heating and air conditioning systems, upgrading windows and insulation in City buildings, district energy systems, introducing green procurement practices for electronics like computers and copiers, and implementing design features to take advantage of passive solar heating and lighting in new buildings. The goal to reduce fuel consumption in buildings must take into account the impact on the functionality of our facilities, the services provided by them, and the expectations of City staff and the public in moving forward. Population growth and demand for new City facilities will be a significant challenge for the City of Kitchener to achieve an absolute reduction in GHG emissions in the next 10 years. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 14 - 2 - 24 Reductions will only be achieved with the leadership of Council, full commitment and cooperation of all City staff and an investment in capital improvements that take advantage of energy savings and carbon reduction technologies. A portion of energy savings from efficiency improvements could potentially be reinvested into new capital improvements to generate an ongoing stream of efficiency projects for the future. Reductions in buildings emissions beyond 2 500 tCOe , or 7 per cent below 2016 emissions by the end of 2026, would most likely require a significant investment in capital improvements and operating expenses with little to no potential for payback within in the next 10 years, and potential service reductions to the public. Vehicle Fleet It is expected that more fuel efficient options and exhaust filtering systems will be available for the fleet within the next decade that the City can take advantage of when there is asset turnover. It is unlikely that electric vehicles will be a viable option for anything but a minimal portion of the Ce of the direct control of the City and may result in a net increase in costs for the City to implement. Increasing the concentration and use of biodiesel has the potential to reduce GHG emissions in the future, but the premium for biodiesel will require increased expenditures on fuel. Improvements can be made in the way we use our fleet to reduce fuel consumption, including: curbing growth, right-sizing vehicles, route optimization and changes in employee driving behavior, creating both cost savings as well as emissions reductions. This is not to suggest that the corporate Fleet division and operating areas are not engaged in these improvements already. Rather, these changes will have to be championed by all City employees that use the corporate fleet across the organization to have a significant impact on the City goal to reduce fuel consumption will need to be balanced with the potential impact on staff productivity and the C 2 the public in a growing community. Reductions in fleet emissions beyond 200 tCOe, or 5 per cent below 2016 emissions by the end of 2026 would require service level reductions and a significant investment in capital improvements and/or operating expenses with little to no potential for payback within in the next 10 years. Outdoor Lighting The City of Kitchener has already made a commitment to LED conversion for street lighting, which is expected to make the biggest single contribution to overall corporate emissions reductions in the short-term. Further marginal reductions in energy consumption for outdoor lighting may be possible over the next ten years to offset increases due to expected growth, but will be a minimal contribution to a more aggressive reduction target. Reductions in emissions 2 from outdoor lighting beyond 600 tCOe , or 60 per cent below 2016 emissions by the end of 2026, is highly unlikely within in the next 10 years. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 15 - 2 - 25 Pumping Stations It is expected that there may be some potential to improve the efficiency of pumping stations over the next 10 years with improved maintenance and regular equipment tune-ups. Significant capital investments with little to no payback may be required to introduce more aggressive reductions in energy consumption for the City. Reductions in emissions from pumping stations 2 beyond 5 tCOe , or 3 per cent below 2016 emissions by the end of 2026, is unlikely within in the next 10 years without significant new capital investments with little to no payback. Corporate Waste The City of Kitchener currently has waste diversion programs for 38 per cent of our building space. Improvements in waste reduction may have the potential to save money, but additional investments in waste diversion and the cost of implementing/reinforcing behavioural changes to 2 facilities and outdoor spaces. Reductions in emissions from corporate waste beyond 120 tCOe, or 15 per cent below 2016 emissions by the end of 2026, is unlikely within in the next 10 years. Table 3.3 GHG emissions reduction target by sector 2015 2015 2026 10 yr Emissions Target Sector % Total % GHG (t COe) Emissions (t COe) reduction 22 Buildings 7,110 54.6% 6,760 5% Fleet 4,013 30.8% 3,900 3% Outdoor Lighting 938 7.2% 420 55% Pumping Stations 142 1.1% 140 2% *Waste 824 6.3% 760 8% TOTAL 13,027 100% 11,980 8% 3.5 Recommended GHG Emissions Reduction Target Staff are recommending that the City of Kitchener adopt an 8 per cent corporate GHG emissions reduction target from 2016 levels by the end of 2026. At this stage in the planning process, it is clear that opportunities exist to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions from City operations over the next ten years. Although, a 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 16 - 2 - 26 great deal of uncertainty remains around specific strategies and actions the City should adopt to take advantage of those opportunities in the most cost effective way, and what results we can actually achieve. While an 8 per cent GHG emissions reduction target may appear to be feasible for the City of Kitchener at this time, it needs to be viewed as a goalpost that gives the organization something to aim for over the next ten years. When compared with the business as usual scenario of a 15 per cent increase in carbon emissions over the next ten years, an absolute reduction of 8 per cent from 2016 levels represents an overall reduction of 20 per cent, which is a substantial ten-year goal. The following principles will be used to guide the development of an action plan: 1.New investments in capital projects to achieve GHG emissions will need to achieve a payback period of 10 years or less; 2.Actions will be targeted at fully leveraging all available funding programs and incentives from other orders of government as appropriate; and 3.Decisions to fund both operating and capital investments will be done through the regular budget cycle and within the context of all other competing priorities and the C 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 17 - 2 - 27 4 Planning to Adapt to Climate Change 4.1 Introduction Today, the effects of climate change are being felt in communities across the country. These effects are set to become so pervasive that all levels of government and all sections of society will have a responsibility to become informed and to take appropriate action within their mandates to prepare for and adapt to them. ICLEI Canada has developed a milestone based framework to assist local governments in the creation of adaptation plans to address the relevant climate change impacts associated with their communities. Each milestone represents a fundamental step in the adaptation planning process, starting with the initiation of adaptation efforts (by building an adaptation team and identifying local stakeholders) and culminating with a monitoring and review process that analyzes the successes and reviews the challenges of the adaptation plan and its implementation. The City of Kitchener will be using the ICLEI methodology to guide the development and implementation of the adaptation components of the Corporate Climate Action Plan. To satisfy the requirements of Milestone #1 of the framework, the City will: identify a preliminary list of climate change impacts and existing adaptation actions, identify a champion and build a climate change adaptation team that includes key stakeholders, and pass a Council resolution demonstrating a political commitment to adaptation planning. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 18 - 2 - 28 4.2 Corporate Adaptation Planning Scope of Work The scope of the Corporate Climate Action Plan includes assets, infrastructure, programs, operations and services that are the direct responsibility of the City of Kitchener, and limited to those actions that fall within the C climate change impacts that will impact the local community that fall outside the scope of this project, such as but not limited to: the health of individuals and particularly vulnerable populations, the reliability of electric power distribution during and after major storm events, and employment income from local agriculture. The City of Kitchener is participating in the development of a Community Adaptation Plan that is being coordinated by the Region of Waterloo. The community plan will look at a broad spectrum of community impacts and will engage a variety of key stakeholders from within the community to discuss impacts, risks and priorities for action. The City of Kitchener Corporate Climate Action Plan will be developed in sync with the region-wide community plan so that interdependencies and opportunities for integrated solutions can be explored together. 4.3 Preliminary Climate Change Impacts Localized climate projections for Waterloo Region, prepared by the Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change (IC3) and the University of Waterloo, indicate that we can expect hotter, wetter and more extreme weather in the years to come. The most significant changes include: 40 per cent more freezing rain events by 2050 rainfall intensities are projected to increase large-magnitude rainfall events expected to occur more frequently more wind gust events are expected the number of days with extreme heat is projected to more than triple to 32days per and nearly double again by 2080 The following table provides a summary of the possible impacts of these changes, based on a preliminary assessment of the data. While the City already has a number of programs in place to manage these impacts, a thorough assessment is required to determine the potential risks due to expected increases in frequency, duration and severity of these changes. Table 4.1 Preliminary Impact Assessment Impact Statement City Services Involved Emergency Preparedness, Rescue and 1.Severe flooding creating a state of emergency due to Recovery extreme precipitation events - causing significant damage to public infrastructure and private Stormwater Management property, forcing residents to evacuate their homes Environmental Services and businesses to shut down. Roads & Traffic Business Continuity Corporate Risk and Insurance 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 19 - 2 - 29 Impact Statement City Services Involved 2.Increased surface water flooding from ponding of Stormwater Management rainfall in low lying areas or heavy rainfall Environmental Services overcoming the capacity of the drainage system. Roads & Traffic 3.Extensive tree damage, power outages, property Emergency Management damage and disruption to transportation networks Environmental Services due to more frequent extreme wind storms and Roads & Traffic more freezing rain events. Corporate Risk and Insurance Fire Department 4.Threats of forest fires and grass fires may increase Emergency Management with longer, drier and hotter heat waves. Environmental Services 5.Increased tree mortality rates and change in the Asset Management urban forest composition due to increase in hot Corporate Risk & Insurance weather and decreased summer precipitation. Facilities Management 6.Increased demand on cooling systems in City Asset Management buildings which may be used as a refuge by citizens Community Programs & Services due to more extreme heat events resulting in higher energy use, increased costs and potential energy brown-outs in peak demand periods. Facilities Management 7.Physical damage to City buildings and facilities as Asset Management they become increasingly unsuited to the changing Corporate Risk & Insurance climate and more frequent climate hazards, resulting Business Continuity in costly repairs, loss of functionality and reduced lifecycle. Engineering 8. Physical damage to the City Roads & Traffic main breaks, degradation of road surfaces, as it Asset Management becomes increasingly unsuited to the changing climate and more frequent hazards, resulting in costly repairs, Risk & Insurance loss of functionality and reduced lifecycle Planning and Building 9.Development patterns not well adapted to future climate within their lifespans (e.g. excess heat gain and lack of cooling in buildings, buildings built below adequate flood construction levels) Community Programs & Services 10.Health and safety risks to City staff that work Human Resources outdoors and participants in outdoor City programs All services with outside workers and services due to extreme heat and disease vectors Environmental Services 11.Damage to parks, trails, and natural areas due to Asset Management longer, drier and hotter heat waves and severe flooding. Planning 12. Damage to the ecology of the City Environmental Services system due to increased water temperatures, increased evaporation, more extreme heat waves, and flooding. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 20 - 2 - 30 4.4 Assessing Adaptive Capacity and Identifying Risks Having taken a first look at climatic changes and the potential impacts in milestone #1 (see Appendix), it will be important to confirm that the most important impacts have been identified. Next, the team will carry out research to determine the City its capacity to adapt to the climate change impacts. A thorough vulnerability assessment will be completed for each service area. Using the results of the vulnerability assessment, along with research on projected climatic changes, the consequence and likelihood of specific impacts will be estimated. The likelihood assessment, together with the consequence evaluation, will constitute the risk score for each impact. The final step in Milestone #2 is to organize the impacts according to the risk score from extreme to low so that a prioritized list of impacts can be used to identify actions to be included in the Corporate Climate Action Plan. The results of the vulnerability and risk assessment will be shared with Council for input before the action plan is developed. How sensitive is the system to changes in climate given existing stresses? To what extent is the system able to accommodate changes in climate with 1 minimal disruption and cost? How susceptible is the system to harm from climate change impacts? What are the known/estimated consequences of climate change impacts? How likely is it that the projected impact would occur? 2 What is the perception and tolerance for risk related to climate change impacts? Identify Priority Areas What are the high risk consequences for highly vulnerable systems? 3 What existing corporate priorities need to be considered? What are the funding opportunities that may influence corporate priorities? 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 21 - 2 - 31 5 Commitment to Move Forward 5.1 Corporate Climate Change Action Plan Steering Committee The City of Kitchener has created team of stakeholders and subject matter experts from across the organization to provide input, guidance, approval and direction on the Corporate Climate Action Plan as it is developed over the next 12-15 months. The Corporate Leadership Team will act as the project champion for the project, and Justin Readman, Executive Director Infrastructure Services will be the project Sponsor. The individuals that have been chosen for this team are in a position to provide insights into the appropriateness and feasibility of potential actions to reduce GHG emissions and address the risks from climate change. Committee Members Manager, Strategy & Business Planning Project Lead (Chair) Senior Sustainability Planner Risk & Claims Analyst Manager, Stormwater Utility Manager, Projects & Energy Management Manager, Emergency Management & Business Continuity Director, Fleet Director, Asset Management Director of Operations Roads & Traffic Director of Operations -Environmental Services Responsibilities of the Steering Committee The primary function of the Corporate Climate Action Steering Committee is to and guide decision making on project deliverables throughout the planning process to ensure alignment with existing programs and confirm that new commitments can be supported within the capacity and capability of the organization. To achieve this objective, the Steering Committee will: Share information, and provide direction on the current and planned future actions the City of Kitchener has already made a commitment to that will reduce corporate GHG emissions and address the potential risks associated with climate change; Identify opportunities to take a collaborative approach to corporate climate action across divisions and departments; Provide direction and feedback at key project milestones; Provide direction for consultation with the Community Emergency Program Committee, Corporate Energy Management Team, Corporate Asset Management Team, Fleet Users Group, specific directors or managers, staff and other stakeholders as needed; Make the decision to accept, revise, or reject project deliverables; and 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 22 - 2 - 32 Communicate the status and progress of the project to other City staff and/or teams that may be impacted, gathering and communicating feedback to the Project Lead. As the project lead, the Manager of Strategy & Business Planning is responsible for successfully completing the project on time within budget and securing acceptance and approval of deliverables from the Project Sponsor, Environmental Committee, Corporate Leadership Team and Council. When the Corporate Climate Action Plan is complete the Corporate Climate Action Plan Steering Committee will be dissolved. The plan will identify who will take responsibility for the implementation of the action plan and the ongoing monitoring and management process. 5.2 Proposed Council Resolution The final requirement for the City of Kitchener methodology and Milestone #2 of the PCP program is to pass a resolution of Council to establish the GHG emissions reduction target, establish the Corporate Climate Action Planning adaption planning. The following Council resolution is recommended: WHEREAS, scientific consensus has developed that carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere have a profound effect on the WHEREAS, the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) indicate that municipalities directly and indirectly affect 44 per cent an important role to play in mitigating this impact on the climate; and WHEREAS, local government actions taken to prepare for climate change impacts provide multiple local benefits by building a more resilient economy, and by helping to reduce the physical impacts and costs to people, property and resources associated with a changing climate. THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener adopt an 8 per cent corporate GHG reduction target from 2016 emissions levels by the end of 2026, and staff be directed to submit it for consideration to the Federation of Canadian Municipalities as fulfillment of corporate milestone #2 of the Partners for Climate Protection Program; and BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener make a commitment to climate change adaptation planning through the five-milestone framework presented Climate, Changing Communities methodology; and BE IT FINALLY RESOLVED that the City of Kitchener establish the Corporate Climate Action Plan Steering Committee to act as an advisory body to the Corporate Leadership Team and Council recommending both mitigation and adaptation measures for the corporation that are practical, affordable and appropriate. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 23 - 2 - 33 APPENDIX: Climate Change Issue Briefs Issue Brief #1: Severe flooding LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ {ĻǝĻƩĻ ŅƌƚƚķźƓŭ ĭƩĻğƷźƓŭ ğ ƭƷğƷĻ ƚŅ ĻƒĻƩŭĻƓĭǤ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ ĻǣƷƩĻƒĻ ƦƩĻĭźƦźƷğƷźƚƓ ĻǝĻƓƷƭ ĭğǒƭźƓŭ ƭźŭƓźŅźĭğƓƷ ķğƒğŭĻ Ʒƚ ƦǒĬƌźĭ źƓŅƩğƭƷƩǒĭƷǒƩĻ ğƓķ ƦƩźǝğƷĻ ƦƩƚƦĻƩƷǤͲ ŅƚƩĭźƓŭ ƩĻƭźķĻƓƷƭ Ʒƚ ĻǝğĭǒğƷĻ ƷŷĻźƩ ŷƚƒĻƭ ğƓķ ĬǒƭźƓĻƭƭĻƭ Ʒƚ ƭŷǒƷ ķƚǞƓ͵ Studies projecting changes in been consistent that an increase in precipitation from recent baseline periods can be expected. Annual rainfall in the Waterloo Region is projected to increase by 3.8-6.2% compared to the 1980-2010 baseline of 918.5mm by the 2020s, dependent on global emissions trends, and by 8.5-11.7% by the 2050s. Annual rainfall, however, Credit: CTV News Kitchener provides little contextual detail of use in managing regional hydrology. Waterloo Region currently experiences an average of 165 days per year with precipitation (>0.1mm). This is projected to decrease by 2-5 days per year, providing an early indication that the projected increase in total rainfall will occur in more intense events. Days with heavy precipitation events (>10mm) are projected to increase by 2-3 days from the current 30 days per year by the 2050s, while very heavy precipitation days (>25mm) will increase by 1.5-2 days from the current 5 days per year. This finding is consistent in the broader regional context, with studies produced for the Toronto, York and Durham regions projecting comparable increases in the number of heavy precipitation days. The greatest increases in seasonal precipitation are expected in spring and winter, respectively, while the greatest monthly increase in precipitation can be expected in July, which is already the Waterloo Return periods, a measure of how frequently a storm of a given magnitude can be expected to occur, are useful tools for conveying information on rainfall intensity. The City of Kitchener uses a governing standard that storm sewer drainage systems should be designed to accommodate a one-in-five year storm event, unless otherwise specified in a Subwatershed Plan. In other words, the system is built to accommodate storms with a 20% chance of occurring in any given year, currently based on the available rainfall data for the period 1971-2007 (older installations are built to standards with prior baselines). The projected intensification of precipitation events can be expressed as changes to observed return periods. The following table reorients rainfall projections into high and low degrees of change. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 24 - 2 - 34 Baseline 2020s 2050s 2080s 1980-2010 Return mm/day Low High Low High Low High Interval 2-yr 50 17.00% 19.20% 3.20% 26.20% 3.80% 23.80% 5-yr 66.5 17.29% 21.17% 0.45% 25.53% 1.20% 25.23% 10-yr 78.5 17.83% 25.22% -0.51% 25.35% 2.29% 26.62% 25-yr 94.8 18.78% 31.75% -1.48% 25.21% 6.01% 28.48% 50-yr 107.8 19.85% 56.54% 11.50% 42.30% 25.42% 47.89% 100-yr 121.6 20.89% 43.91% -2.96% 25.00% 15.63% 31.58% (Note: This table conveys changes irrespective of emissions scenarios in order to clearly show the expected ranges. Scenario-specific warming Table 3.3 of \[ƚĭğƌźǩĻķ /ƌźƒğƷĻ tƩƚƆĻĭƷźƚƓƭ ŅƚƩ ‘ğƷĻƩƌƚƚ wĻŭźƚƓͲ from which this data was sourced conveys a sounder picture of how storm intensification is likely to evolve, dependent on global emissions trends). As can be seen, an intensification of storms of all return periods by at least 17-20% can be expected through the 2020s, irrespective of emissions trends. While not identical to the 5-year storm standard used for storm sewer system development, this is sufficient for comparison. A 20% intensification of a 5- year storm may be sufficient to re-characterize it as a 3-year or 4-year storm compared to the current baseline. Consequentially, a 5-year flood under a 2010-2040 baseline can be expected to exceed the designed capacity standard based on a 1971-2007 standard, warranting express corporate intervention to deter the possibility of low-magnitude, high-frequency events becoming habitually more damaging. The more significant problem pertains to extreme events, 25-year or higher return period storms. Projections indicate that Waterloo Region will experience both more extreme events, and that these events will intensify from the current baseline to greater degrees than can be expected for shorter return period storms, particularly in the near-term. 50-year storms, for instance, can be expected to intensify by between 20-57% by the 2020s depending on global emissions trends. To put this risk into perspective, Kitchener (measured at Waterloo International Airport) saw severe storms produce localized flooding on August 25, 2016 (31.9mm), May 31, 2015 (35.6mm) and June 28, 2013 (37.8mm). Assuming a rainfall duration of one hour (insufficient data readily available for more refined analysis), which is more consistent with flash flooding events than sustained daily rains totaling these volumes, that would place these rainfall events within approximately the 4-year to 7-year return period intervals, or between a 14-25% chance of occurring in any given year (Figure 3 of ƦķğƷĻ ƚŅ LƓƷĻƓƭźƷǤΏ5ǒƩğƷźƚƓΏ CƩĻƨǒĻƓĭǤ ΛL5CΜ /ǒƩǝĻƭ ŅƚƩ ƷŷĻ /źƷǤ ƚŅ ‘ğƷĻƩƌƚƚ ğƓķ ƷŷĻ /źƷǤ ƚŅ YźƷĭŷĻƓĻƩ). While damage from these flooding events was limited and services resumed in a timely fashion, the presence of this flooding reveals the vulnerability to more severe events. According to Kitchener-updated IDF curve (1971-2007 baseline), a 25-year storm event would see approximately the volume of water from the May 31 or June 28 events fall each hour for two 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 25 - 2 - 35 hours, while a 100-year storm would see approximately double this rainfall volume fall per hour for a 2- hour duration, under present circumstances. In this context, an intensification of 25-year or 50-year storms by 19-32% and 20-57%, respectively, can be understood to be beyond what the drainage system is capable of quickly diverting in a controlled fashion, leading to flooding. Significant intensification of 100-year storms is also projected, but as the baseline data for such extreme events is sparse, these projections are less robust. The consequences of significant urban flooding can be extensive, including: Loss of Life: While uncommon, urban flash flooding can result in loss of life. Four cases of drowning have been confirmed as a result of the 2013 Calgary flood, for instance, and one case of downing in a submerged vehicle occurred in the 1987 Montreal flood. Damage to Public and Private Property: Floodwater intrusion and sewer backups are the leading cause of insurable damage in Canada. Intense rains on July 8, 2013 induced more than $850 million in property damage in Toronto. The average cost for restoring flooded basements following the Toronto and Calgary floods was $40,000. Forced Relocation: Substantial flooding damage may force home and business owners to temporarily or permanently leave their premises. Loss of Livelihood: The loss of electricity, modes of communication, internet access, roads and other services can lead to a significant curtailing of economic activity during and following disaster events. The cessation of business operations, even among those spared physical damage, can place hardship on private sector, often with adverse spillover effects. Data collected in the United States suggests that almost 40% of small business do not reopen their doors following a flooding disaster. Decreased Land Values: Susceptibility to floods may decrease property values and increase the cost of availability private flood insurance in the emerging market. Hindered Economic Development: The high cost of relief and recovery may adversely impact investment in infrastructure and other development activities in the area. Recurrent flooding in a region may discourage long-term investments by the government and private sector alike. Psychological Effects: disruption to business and social affairs can cause stress among impacted urban residents. Academic literate has found that strength of psychological effects has been positively correlated with the magnitude of a disaster event, compounding the risk for vulnerable populations. Flooding can occur quickly, and smaller streams are not always monitored by flood forecasting units. Typically, the more advanced or immediate notice the public and responders have regarding the presence of flooding, the more quickly impacts can be accommodated (e.g. avoiding flooded roads during a daily commute), prepared for (e.g. ensure sump pump is working correctly) or managed (e.g. have emergency response personnel at the ready). The advent of social media allows for the collection and dissemination of real-time updates on floodwater status, allowing for a steady stream of contact with citizens and the media, and providing indicators to municipal and regional authorities towards the possible enactment of contingency plans pertinent to evacuations, opening of shelters, food 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 26 - 2 - 36 distribution, etc. Informed by flood forecasts or reports of flooding, measures should be in place that an emergency response centre be quickly established to coordinate activities. Municipalities should have an emergency plan for dealing with a flood. Flood risk maps can be invaluable for the planners, by identifying built-up areas, roadways, bridges, and essential services, such as water treatment plants, that might be flooded. Each emergency plan should identify routes to circumvent flooded areas and should explain how to protect drinking water supplies and sewers. Plans must also set out instructions for evacuating residents, establishing reception centres and cleaning up. Acknowledging that climate change will alter historical experiences with floods is important when revising emergency plans. Following the receding of floodwaters, recovery efforts must be managed by the municipality. Transportation routes must be re-opened, electric power restored, and sewer and water lines put back into operation. Property must be checked for hazards, debris removed, and homes decontaminated. While home decontamination will be the responsibility of homeowners, municipal officials have an opportunity to provide advice on the proper clean-up and decontamination methods. A pre-emptive guide to flood risk alleviation may be prepared for homeowners. After the clean-up is complete, officials should evaluate the event and, if necessary, revise the emergency plan in order to be better prepared the next time. The robust intervention by municipal stakeholders. The high degree of change scenarios which may be expected in the middle and late periods of this century are comparable to the intensification projected for the 2020s for low return period storms events, while low degree of change scenarios are comparable with baseline figures. Perhaps counter-intuitively, the scenario which most frequently produces the least amount of precipitation change towards the middle and end of the century comes from the business-as- usual, high global emissions trend scenario. While high return period storm events can be expected to show a more sustained intensification throughout the century, the regional projections suggest a slight tempering following the 2020s, indicating that robust measures to prepare the City of Kitchener for these events made today are unlikely to be made inadequate in the future. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 27 - 2 - 37 Issue Brief #2: Increased surface water flooding from pooling LƒƦğĭƷ ƭƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ LƓĭƩĻğƭĻķ ƭǒƩŅğĭĻ ǞğƷĻƩ ŅƌƚƚķźƓŭ ŅƩƚƒ ƦƚƓķźƓŭ ƚŅ ƩğźƓŅğƌƌ źƓ ƌƚǞ ƌǤźƓŭ ğƩĻğƭ ƚƩ ŷĻğǝǤ ƩğźƓŅğƌƌ ƚǝĻƩĭƚƒźƓŭ ƷŷĻ ĭğƦğĭźƷǤ ƚŅ ƷŷĻ ķƩğźƓğŭĻ ƭǤƭƷĻƒ. Urban flooding has become one of the most substantial threats to property and health safety in many Canadian municipalities, and recent examples of severe flooding in Ontario municipalities like Toronto and Windsor demonstrate the scale of damage caused by high-return period rain events. Flooding can happen at any time of the year, but factors like the ground still being frozen, rainfall exacerbated by snowmelt, baked soil and leaf litter blocking storm sewer grates can exacerbate the risk. More intense storms increase the likelihood of the surface water pooling, overwhelming either for permeable surfaces to absorb water. Water is likely to collect in low-lying areas and Credit: CTV News Kitchener depressions, as well as areas which experience drainage bottlenecks. Pooling can result in localized flooding which may result in property damage including basement flooding and vehicles being partially submerged, impeding transportation networks, and the inability to use natural areas for recreation. Pooling in a municipal environment is typically the result of the impermeable features which define urban development roads, parking lots, roofs and other surfaces which prevent the water from being absorbed into the underlying soil. Water naturally flows to lower elevations, and the abundance of impermeable surfaces can result in significant volumes of water collecting in low-lying areas, causing flooding. To cope with this, cities install drainage systems comprised of major and minor systems. The major system, which is responsible for diverting the significant majority of stormwater during high- magnitude, low-frequency storm events, consists of the streets, swales and open channels. Conversely, the minor system consists of a network of subsurface pipes (storm sewers) intended to quickly divert stormwater from low-magnitude, high frequency storm events away from the built environment in a controlled manner, reducing the risk of damage to the built environment. Issues of pooling exist when the quantity of rainfall exceeds the capacity of the drainage system to divert it from the built environment. When this occurs, water travels downs roads and other paths of 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 28 - 2 - 38 least resistance to low-lying areas, where it may inundate roads, lawns, parking lots, parks and subterranean levels of buildings or other infrastructure. Pooling water is typically a recurring and costly threat in urban environments, as demonstrated by the localized flooding which has occurred in Kitchener in recent years. As cities develop to accommodate growing populations, the scale of issues regarding impermeable surfaces increases, exacerbating existing drainage capacity insufficiencies. This is further compounded by the projected intensification of future storm events. Waterloo Region can expect an intensification of storm events of all return periods of at least 17% by the 2020s compared to baseline records, irrespective of global emissions trends. High return period storms are projected to intensify to more severe degrees under high degree of change scenarios, with the volume of rainfall in 25, 50 and 100- year storms projected to increase by at least 25% throughout the century, and by as much as 57% during the 2020s for a 50-year storm. In order to accommodate these projected rainfall intensifications and prevent exacerbated flooding where possible, drainage systems must be improved. The Stormwater Master Plan identifies areas for improvement in the storm sewer network; however, such improvements come at significant cost. Storm sewer networks could be upgraded to accommodate higher-magnitude, lower-frequency events, but the necessarily immense diameter of the pipes result in this action being extremely expensive. Incremental upgrades to the minor drainage system coupled with systematic expansions of the major drainage system predicated on holistic land use management offers the most cost-effective means of expanding the drainage capacity of an urban area to address storm events of varying frequency and magnitude. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 29 - 2 - 39 Issue Brief #3: Freezing Rain and Wind Damage LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ 9ǣƷĻƓƭźǝĻ ƷƩĻĻ ķğƒğŭĻͲ ƦƚǞĻƩ ƚǒƷğŭĻƭͲ ƦƩƚƦĻƩƷǤ ķğƒğŭĻ ğƓķ ķźƭƩǒƦƷźƚƓ Ʒƚ ƷƩğƓƭƦƚƩƷğƷźƚƓ ƓĻƷǞƚƩƉƭ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ ƒƚƩĻ ŅƩĻƨǒĻƓƷ ĻǣƷƩĻƒĻ ǞźƓķ ƭƷƚƩƒƭ ğƓķ ƒƚƩĻ ŅƩĻĻǩźƓŭ ƩğźƓ ĻǝĻƓƷƭ. Climatic projections for Waterloo Region suggest the characteristics of weather events we experience are very likely to change. Some of these changes are expected to cause stress, interruptions or damage across the city. For instance, the projected increases in the number of freezing rain events by 40% by the 2050s and strength of Credit: The Weather Network wind gusts will impact both natural and human systems. Freezing rain-induced ice accumulation on trees can cause extensive damage. Depending on tree characteristics, ice accumulation can increase the weight of branches by factors of 10-100. This places significant stress on weak points such as branch junctures, dead branches, unbalanced crowns and shallow root systems. In the most susceptible category are trees such as silver maples, eastern cottonwoods, black oaks, black cherries and willows. Trees of average susceptibility include eastern white pine, red maple, sugar maple and tamaracks. Particularly when exacerbated by strong winds, ice accumulation can result in widespread downed branches or trees, which then may have compounding results of property damage, interruption of traffic systems, disruption to recreation spaces and damaging electricity transmission infrastructure. Falling branches is cited as one of the most common causes of power outages in Ontario. Healthy trees with strong branching patterns, flexible lateral branches and conical shapes tend to be the least susceptible to freezing rain. While most trees can recover on their own from ice cover damage, actions like corrective pruning and bracing young trees can increase tree resilience. A significant ice storm in December 2013 caused extensive tree damage within Waterloo Region, and more broadly resulted in more than one million people losing power, primarily in Ontario. Severe weather has become the number one cause of power outages in North America, and the costs to the economy via repair costs for damaged equipment such as transmission and distribution systems and societal costs of work interruptions, lost productivity, and loss of consumables has steadily risen over the past three decades. Ice accumulation in excess of 1.25cm creates condition with a high probability of causing power blackouts. In addition to the threat of downed tree branches, 1.25cm of ice can add 500 pounds of additional weight per segment of power line. This can cause breaks in the lines, and if the 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 30 - 2 - 40 problem is widespread, may take a utility days to fully restore the network. The Weather Network refers as it is likely to result in significant instances of tree and power line damage, as well as abysmal road conditions for all kinds of traffic. Freezing rain can result in some of the worst slippery road traffic accidents outbreaks, with road conditions often visually indistinguishable from wet pavement. While improvements in vehicle safety mechanisms like traction control, antilock brakes, stability control and tire grip partially mitigate the personal dangers of freezing rain, the sustained trend of spikes in accident numbers following ice accumulation demonstrates the need for planned response. An increase of 40% in the number of freezing events may stress municipal capacity to promptly respond and mitigate the threat to motorists. Heeding the risks dangerous road conditions freezing rain presents may also result in unintended business impacts; refraining from commuting to work or businesses may induce business losses that must be absorbed by the company. In addition, ice accumulation on sidewalks and pedestrian spaces on municipal property can create slippery conditions, presenting a risk of physical harm to the public. In exceptional circumstances, freezing rain can result in enormous costs and damages. For instance, the 1998 Ontario/Quebec ice storm caused approximately $1.8 billion in direct infrastructure damage, tree damage and lost business opportunity. An intensification of wind gusts may similarly cause damage and interruption to the aforementioned systems. For instance, a powerful thunderstorm which saw winds in excess of 100km/h hit Kitchener on July 27, 2013. The storm caused extensive tree and branch downing throughout the city, damaging homes, fences, sheds and municipal parks. Winds partially ripped the roofs off homes and apartment buildings, and blew fixtures off retail buildings. Power outages were reported impact around 6,800 customers, which in some cases lasted up to two days. Waterloo region is projected to experience an increase in the frequency of wind gusts in excess of 40km/hour by 10-20%, and gusts in excess of 70km/hour by 20-40% compared to the 1994- 2007 average by late this century. Credit: Linda Givetash, Waterloo Record 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 31 - 2 - 41 Issue Brief #4: Forest and Grass Fires LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ ŷƩĻğƷƭ ƚŅ ŅƚƩĻƭƷ ŅźƩĻƭ ğƓķ ŭƩğƭƭ ŅźƩĻƭ ƒğǤ źƓĭƩĻğƭĻ ǞźƷŷ ƌƚƓŭĻƩͲ ķƩźĻƩ ğƓķ ŷƚƷƷĻƩ ŷĻğƷ ǞğǝĻƭ. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation norms within Waterloo Region are likely to increase the risk of forest and grass fires. By the 2050s, mean summer temperatures are projected to increase by 1.3-3.1°C compared to observed 1990s temperatures and by 1.5-5.3°C by the 2080s, depending on global greenhouse gas emissions trends. In addition, the number of days with temperatures in excess of 30°C is projected to increase by 5-15 days by the 2050s, compared to the observed 1990s mean of 10 days per year, and by 4.5-49 by the 2080s, depending on emissions trends. Credit: CTV News Kitchener This is a significant change from regional temperature norms, and will place considerable stress on ecological systems adapted to local climate conditions. To put this scale of change into perspective, US-based Climate Central has projected that, under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, by 2080-2100 summer temperatures in Toronto will be comparable to curr urban heat island effect complicates direct comparability with Waterloo Region, a change of comparable magnitude is reasonable to expect under this warming scenario. Exacerbating rising temperatures, which increase rates of evapotranspiration, are projected changes to precipitation patterns. A slight projected decrease in the number of days experiencing rain, as well as an intensification of rain events, which tends to increase runoff and decrease soil absorption, will result in decreased moisture availability for regional flora. While no major study of climate projections in Southern Ontario projects a significant trend towards drought conditions, drier summer growing seasons are expected to become more common. Resulting dry conditions increase the risk of regional forest and grass fires. Overall forested area burned in Ontario is projected to increase by 50-300% by 2080 (with the most severe increases occurring in the northwestern portions of the province), a result of more frequent fires in a longer burning season. Fires present a risk to human health and safety, property, natural areas, agriculture and waterways. An increase in fire activity may stress Fire and Emergency Mana manage tree mortality in order to reduce available fuel for burning. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 32 - 2 - 42 Forest and grass fires present a risk to the security of electricity systems. Flames can directly damage transmission poles and other electricity infrastructure; however, the greatest risk comes from smoke and particulate matter, which can ionize the air, creating an electrical pathway away from transmission lines, tripping utility breakers and shutting down the lines. Summer 2016 may provide insight into the conditions which could become more common in the future. Hot, dry conditions resulted in plant stress and high forest fire risk throughout Southern Ontario, inducing fire bans by the Grand River Conservation Authority and Ontario Parks. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 33 - 2 - 43 Issue Brief #5: Summer Tree Mortality and Migration LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ LƓĭƩĻğƭĻķ ƷƩĻĻ ƒƚƩƷğƌźƷǤ ƩğƷĻƭ ğƓķ ĭŷğƓŭĻƭ źƓ ƷŷĻ ǒƩĬğƓ ŅƚƩĻƭƷ ĭƚƒƦƚƭźƷźƚƓ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ źƓĭƩĻğƭĻ źƓ ŷƚƷ ǞĻğƷŷĻƩ ğƓķ ķĻĭƩĻğƭĻ źƓ ƭǒƒƒĻƩ ƦƩĻĭźƦźƷğƷźƚƓ. Summers in Waterloo Region are projected to become warmer and drier, particularly under scenarios of high global greenhouse gas emissions trends. If the world proceeds with aggressive climate change mitigation actions, mean summer temperatures are likely to rise by 1.3°C by the 2050s and 1.5°C by the 2080s compared to observed 1990s temperatures, coupled with an increase in the number of days exceeding 30°C by about 5 days during both timespans. Conversely, under a business- as-usual emissions scenario, mean summer temperatures may increase by 3.1°C and 5.3°C by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively, while days with temperatures reaching Credit: CBC Kitchener-Waterloo over 30°C may increase by factors of 2.5 by mid-century and 6 by end of century. According to US-based Climate Central, the business-as-usual scenario will result in Waterloo Region experiencing end-of-century summer norms typical of Southern Florida today. Projected regional summer drying resulting from temperature-induced increases in evapotranspiration and soil baking, increased runoff during extreme events and a reduction in the number of rainy days, in addition to expected increases in the number and intensity of extreme weather events, compounds the issue of increasing temperatures with regards to ecological systems. Together, these impacts will place significant stress on trees and other flora adapted to regional climatic norms. Extended hot, dry conditions are likely to result in increased instances of tree mortality in the interim, beginning with more sensitive tree species, and may induce significant ecological changes on longer timescales. As annual temperatures rise, a northward progression of ecozones/ecoregions can be expected. Species native to Southwestern Ontario will be progressively replaced with species characteristic of more southerly latitudes, particularly in the case of high global emissions trends scenarios. With insight from regional projections, end-of-century annual average climatic conditions might be expected to more closely compare to current norms in Charlotte, North Carolina under a business-as-usual scenario, inducing a gradual species transition towards flora native to the Atlantic mid-latitudes of the United States. That said, natural tree migration is a very slow process, averaging only a few hundred meters per year. Rapid changes in climatic norms threatens to exceed the habitable range for some native species faster than more well-adapt species can replace them, risking the health of regional forests. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 34 - 2 - 44 The forthcoming species migration can be partially managed by Environmental Services staff, preserving resiliency to emerging climate conditions, rather than traditional planning standards. Species that have high fecundity, long distance pollen flow, and short generation times are likely to be more successful in adapting to a changing climate. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 35 - 2 - 45 Issue Brief #6: Electrical Systems LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ LƓĭƩĻğƭĻķ ķĻƒğƓķ ƚƓ ĭƚƚƌźƓŭ ƭǤƭƷĻƒƭ źƓ ĭźƷǤ ĬǒźƌķźƓŭƭ Ǟŷźĭŷ ƒğǤ ĬĻ ǒƭĻķ ğƭ ğ ƩĻŅǒŭĻ ĬǤ ĭźƷźǩĻƓƭ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ ƒƚƩĻ ĻǣƷƩĻƒĻ ŷĻğƷ ĻǝĻƓƷƭ ƩĻƭǒƌƷźƓŭ źƓ ŷźŭŷĻƩ ĻƓĻƩŭǤ ǒƭĻͲ źƓĭƩĻğƭĻķ ĭƚƭƷƭ ğƓķ ƦƚƷĻƓƷźğƌ ĻƓĻƩŭǤ ĬƩƚǞƓΏƚǒƷƭ źƓ ƦĻğƉ ķĻƒğƓķ ƷźƒĻƭ͵ Climate change presents multi-faceted risks to electricity systems pertaining to quality and security of supply. Estimates from the United States suggest that modest warming of about 1°C Credit: Kitchener Wilmot Hydro is likely to result in a corresponding increase in energy demand for cooling by 5-20%. Increases in power demand are most likely to occur in the summer. Locally, Waterloo Region is projected to experience mean summer temperatures increasing by 1.3-3.1°C by the 2050s compared to observed 1990s temperatures and by 1.5-5.3°C by the 2080s, depending on global greenhouse gas emissions trends. In addition, the number of days with temperatures in excess of 30°C is projected to increase by 5-15 days by the 2050s, compared to the observed 1990s mean of 10 days per year, and by 4.5-49 by the 2080s, depending on emissions trends. According to US estimates of comparable degrees of warming, this may increase expenditure on energy for total space heating and cooling by approximately 10-20%, assuming constant energy rates. rates in the future. Maintaining the grid to provide very high peak demand, which is typically only reached on very hot summer afternoons, requires significant investment in transmission and generating capacity, all the while annual electrical demand has been steadily dropping in Ontario, reducing revenue. To cover the necessary costs, rates much successively be raised. Consequentially, heat waves of more severe magnitudes than currently experienced may result in higher summer electrical demand for cooling in an environment of higher electrical rates. The City of Kitchener offers City Hall, community centres, splash pads, libraries and arenas as cooling centres during the summer months; air conditioned spaces where residents can escape the heat. ncreases in the number of very hot days may may emerge as the city continues to develop, warranting additional centres. A warmer climate may reduce the efficiency of power production for many existing thermal power plants because these plants use water for cooling. The colder the water is, the more efficient the generation of electricity. Thus, higher air and water temperatures could 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 36 - 2 - 46 reduce the efficiency with which these plants convert fuel into electricity. Anomalously warm temperatures in the Great Lakes have become increasingly common in recent years, a trend that the University of Wisconsin-Policy expected to become exacerbated as a result of increasing air temperatures and decreasing winter lake ice. The Centre reports that In July 2006, the Cook Nuclear Plant in Michigan was shut down for 5 days due to high temperature intake waters caused by an intense heat wave, and that both adversely high water intake temperatures and noncompliance with water discharge rules are likely to become more common. As nuclear provides the -day shutdowns of one of the provi threaten a stable grid, particularly during heat waves more intense than we are currently accustomed to. Likewise, very high electrical use can strain the capacity of the grid; if demand exceeds grid supply intentional brownouts may be induced to preserve the integrity of the grid at large. Electrical outages can be extremely costly to businesses operating within the City of Kitchener, and Ontario more broadly, and future investment may be hindered if the security of electrical supply cannot be guaranteed. Particularly during heat waves, when the grid is near transmission capacity, risks of interruptions from trees can be exacerbated absent diligent maintenance of the local canopy. The weight of voltage in high- density lines which supply the local grid can sag, and if there are trees underneath that might be reached as a result of this sagging, an electrical conduit may form, shorting the lines. As a result, more frequent, intense heatwaves may require modifications to tree maintenance policies. The most effective means to mitigate these risks is to increase the electrical efficiency of operations. Increasing efficiency will reduce the cost burden associated with increased cooling demand, which will occur primarily during peak hours. Likewise, while corporate operations represent only a small portion of community electrical demand, any measures which reduce cumulative demand work to preserve the integrity of grid supply. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 37 - 2 - 47 Issue Brief #7: Physical Damage to City Buildings and Facilities LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ tŷǤƭźĭğƌ ķğƒğŭĻ Ʒƚ ĭźƷǤ ĬǒźƌķźƓŭƭ ğƓķ ŅğĭźƌźƷźĻƭ ğƭ ƷŷĻǤ ĬĻĭƚƒĻ źƓĭƩĻğƭźƓŭƌǤ ǒƓƭǒźƷĻķ Ʒƚ ƷŷĻ ĭŷğƓŭźƓŭ ĭƌźƒğƷĻ ğƓķ ƒƚƩĻ ŅƩĻƨǒĻƓƷ ĭƌźƒğƷĻ ŷğǩğƩķƭͲ ƩĻƭǒƌƷźƓŭ źƓ ĭƚƭƷƌǤ ƩĻƦğźƩƭͲ ƌƚƭƭ ƚŅ ŅǒƓĭƷźƚƓğƌźƷǤ ğƓķ ƩĻķǒĭĻ ƌźŅĻĭǤĭƌĻ͵ Projected changes in the climate of Waterloo Region are very likely to have adverse impacts on municipal facilities and buildings in the short and long terms. The intensification of extreme precipitation events, realization of warmer and drier summers, increases in freezing rain occurrences, strengthening of damaging winds, and increased accumulation of snow are all factors which can damage building, induce loss of functionality and accelerate natural decline of condition. Climate hazards can have wide-ranging consequences for exterior and interior surfaces of public and private buildings, and shifting norms have already been tied to adverse impacts in Ontario. Increased snowfall has led to numerous incidences of the structural collapse of public and private building structures. Increased precipitation has reduced the structural integrity of many buildings, accelerated the deterioration of building facades, caused premature weathering of input material, increased surface leaching and, in some instances, decreased the integrity of engineered berms as a result of slope instability. Greater incidences of flooding have led to extensive commercial and property damage and basement flooding, which have reduced the functionality and service life of building foundations. The taken to decrease the likelihood of occurrence. The Winnipeg-based International Institute for Sustainable Development produced a literature review assessing the potential climate change impacts on Canadian infrastructure, noting the following Ontario- pertinent concerns for the building sector: Climate Impact Building Consequence Increased precipitation Reduced structural integrity of building components through mechanical, chemical and biological degradation Accelerated deterioration of building facades Premature weathering of input materials Increased fractures and spalling in building foundations Decreased durability of materials Increased efflorescence and surface leaching concerns Increased corrosion Increased mold growth Damaged or flooded structures 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 38 - 2 - 48 Slope stability and integrity of engineered berms are also vulnerable to extreme precipitation. Increased risk of basement and localized flooding Increased corrosion in metals or deterioration in concrete Structural damage from increased snow weight Hotter, drier summers Building damage has sometimes been observed when clay soils dry and heat waves out. Forest fires can damage entire homes and businesses. Premature weathering Increased indoor air temperature and reliance on cooling systems Hail, windstorms and ice Property destruction storms Damage building infrastructure Reduction of design safety margins Reduced service life and functionality of components and systems Increased risk for catastrophic failure Increased repair, maintenance, reserve fund contingencies and energy costs Three primary determinants which will influence the sensitivity of building infrastructure to climate change impacts are the age, composition and design of the facilities. Old and overextended infrastructure is likely to be more susceptible to the negative impacts of climate change. Older infrastructure is most vulnerable in general; all other factors remaining constant, a new building will be less affected by climate hazards than an older building that has aged and deteriorated over time. The materials used in the construction and maintenance of various types of infrastructure also play a key role in influencing the sensitivity of said infrastructure to climate hazards. The extent to which materials are susceptible to natural breakdown and weathering over time can be compounded in the context of climate variability and change. For example, wood and other flammable materials are obviously much more susceptible to damage from wildfires in drier conditions. Similarly, the exposure of infrastructure to more incremental climatic changes is also affected by the types of material used in their construction. For instance, the ability of structures to provide passive cooling in increasing average temperatures varies from one conventional building material to the next. Most infrastructure continues to be designed on the basis of historical climate data and assumptions, generally meaning they do not account for an expected increase in frequency and intensity of climate hazards or new climate hazards. For example, expansive roof complexes may be inadequately designed for the increased drainage and load bearing needs that the intensifications of rainfall, snowfall and freezing rain may require. Climate considerations in design are important not only to improving resilience to climate hazards and incremental climate change, but can also positively contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. For example, green roofs can contribute to the passive cooling of buildings and more effective rainwater management while simultaneously reducing energy usage and costs. Though often representing higher upfront costs, investments in more resilient design can help avoid larger future costs (in terms of maintenance, repair and replacement). 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 39 - 2 - 49 Issue Brief #8: Physical Damage to City Infrastructure LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ tŷǤƭźĭğƌ ķğƒğŭĻ ƒğźƓ ĬƩĻğƉƭͲ ķĻŭƩğķğƷźƚƓ ƚŅ Ʃƚğķ ƭǒƩŅğĭĻƭͲ ğƭ źƷ ĬĻĭƚƒĻ źƓĭƩĻğƭźƓŭƌǤ ǒƓƭǒźƷĻķ Ʒƚ ƷŷĻ ĭŷğƓŭźƓŭ ĭƌźƒğƷĻ ğƓķ ƒƚƩĻ ŅƩĻƨǒĻƓƷ ĭƌźƒğƷĻ ŷğǩğƩķƭͲ ƩĻƭǒƌƷźƓŭ źƓ ĭƚƭƷƌǤ ƩĻƦğźƩƭͲ ƌƚƭƭ ƚŅ ŅǒƓĭƷźƚƓğƌźƷǤ ğƓķ ƩĻķǒĭĻ ƌźŅĻĭǤĭƌĻ͵ Rainfall events of all assessed magnitudes are likely to intensify by at least 17-20% by the 2020s, compared to the 1990s, with the greatest risk of intensification being Credit: CTV News Kitchener among high-magnitude events. Total winter snowfall is likely to increase in the coming decades before declining as winters warm, only to be replaced by significant increases in freezing rain events. Seasonal mean winter temperatures will approach the freezing mark while summer temperatures soar, including a potential six-fold increase in the number of days above 30°C by the end of this century. Strong wind gusts are projected to strengthen and summers are expected to dry. Each of these changes in climatic norms is likely to have impacts on municipal infrastructure; indeed, extreme events which have occurred in Ontario and Quebec showcase the impacts which could conceivably occur in Kitchener. During the August 2005 flood in Toronto, two high-pressure gas mains were damaged, along with a portable water main. Finch Ave, an arterial street, collapsed, disrupting traffic patterns and utility service lines were interrupted. The 2004 Peterborough flood resulted in the disconnection of approximately 1000 home gas lins, as well as the inundation of sewer systems and roads. The 1996 Saguenay flood forced the complete restoration of roads, bridges and sewer networks. Collectively, substantial economic costs have already been attributed to the impact of climate hazards on municipal infrastructure, and these costs are only expected to increase in the future. Potential climate impacts on road transportation networks highlight the diversity of consequences that must be considered in order to adequately prepare these systems. Nation-wide, public funding is most heavily invested in highways and roads, and 18.5% of the 2017 Capital Budget will be allocated to road maintenance and winter controls. The Winnipeg-based International Institute for Sustainable Development produced a literature review assessing the potential climate change impacts on Canadian infrastructure, noting the following Ontario- pertinent concerns for the land transportation sector: 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 40 - 2 - 50 Climate Impact Building Consequence Greater frequency of Triggered instability of embankments and pavement structures freeze-thaw cycles in (ditches, culverts, drains, street hardware, bridges, tunnels) winter months Increased frequency, duration and severity of: thermal cracking, rutting, frost heave and thaw weakening Hotter, drier summers Pavement softening Reduction in the maximum loads that can be safely transported Asphalt-covered surfaces are more susceptible to damage during heat waves Increase in flushing or bleeding of older pavement Change in the timing and duration of seasonal load restrictions and winter weight premiums Increased challenges in pavement construction process Shortened life expectancy of highways, roads and rail Drier conditions affecting the life cycle of bridges and culverts Increased flow of streams and rivers, which increases need to replace ice bridges Augmentation of Urban Heat Island Effect Flooding Capacity of culverts and storm sewer systems are more frequently exceeded; road damage, bridge washouts, underpass and basement flooding, increased repair bills and insurance costs Bridges and low-lying roads have a high risk of being inundated or damaged. Waterway-adjacent roads may be required to be moved or be rebuilt at higher elevation to avoid or reduce flooding. Milder winters (mostly Longer construction season, fewer pothole repairs late century) Less frost damage for southern roads Decreased damage from fewer freeze-thaw cycles Changes to maintenance schedules Reduced snowfall lowering plowing expenditure As can be seen, milder winters offer opportunities for decreased cold-related maintenance, particularly later in the century. More months of the year with average temperatures above the freezing mark will reduce freeze-thaw cycles, while less snowfall will reduce the costs of clearing city roads. Similar to municipal buildings, the age, composition and design of city infrastructure will be primary determinants on the sensitivity to projected changes. Older water mains, for instance, are less able to accommodate pavement movements during extreme heat events and are more likely to crack. Pavement selection is based on a specific regional temperature regime; the increase of extreme heat events in Waterloo Region could lead to current pavement grade selections being ill-equipped to accommodate emerging norms. Existing roads may become more susceptible to the aforementioned impacts of hot summers, while a newly selected pavement grade may be more expensive. Storm sewers and drainage infrastructure designs will need to be improved to accommodate increased water flow resulting from the intensification of precipitation events. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 41 - 2 - 51 An effective strategy to managing climate risk typically involves a combination of responses focusing on technical aspects (e.g., modifying the design of infrastructures to make them more resistant to the increased intensity of floods), policy and legal aspects (e.g., new stormwater drainage standards), financial aspects (e.g., specific funds allocated to support the maintenance of infrastructure), socioeconomic aspects (e.g., change in habits and behavioral patterns associated with the use of infrastructures, relocation or abandonment of infrastructures) and institutional aspects (e.g., awareness raising and capacity building of the infrastructure sector on climate adaptation). Adaptation is a dynamic, context-specific and often long-term process that requires sustained efforts from a variety of actors. Nation-wide, are opportunities for investments to be rethought and life-cycle costs to be taken into greater consideration. If targeted effectively, new infrastructure investments can significantly improve the long- 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 42 - 2 - 52 Issue Brief #9: Development Patterns LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ 5ĻǝĻƌƚƦƒĻƓƷ ƦğƷƷĻƩƓƭ ƓƚƷ ǞĻƌƌ ğķğƦƷĻķ Ʒƚ ŅǒƷǒƩĻ ĭƌźƒğƷĻ ǞźƷŷźƓ ƷŷĻźƩ ƌźŅĻƭƦğƓƭ ΛĻ͵ŭ͵ ĻǣĭĻƭƭ ŷĻğƷ ŭğźƓ ğƓķ ƌğĭƉ ƚŅ ĭƚƚƌźƓŭ źƓ ĬǒźƌķźƓŭƭͲ ĬǒźƌķźƓŭƭ ĬǒźƌƷ ĬĻƌƚǞ ğķĻƨǒğƷĻ Ņƌƚƚķ ĭƚƓƭƷƩǒĭƷźƚƓ ƌĻǝĻƌƭΜ͵ As the projected changes in the climate of Waterloo Region become realized, modifications in the development standards and patterns utilized by the City of Kitchener may be necessary. Section 6 of the Kitchener Official Plan emphasizes the mmitment to reducing the risk to citizens posed by natural and human- made hazards with the stated objectives to: prevent injury or the loss of life and Credit: Grand River Conservation Authority minimize property damage and social disruption through the restriction of land use activities on lands susceptible to flooding or erosion; and provide for limited and controlled development on natural hazardous lands where it is determined that such development is appropriate and safe. The changing hydrology of Waterloo Region may induce progressive changes to the scale of floodplain designation within the boundaries of the City of Kitchener. Floodplain boundaries are mapped by the dumped 285mm of rain over Southern Ontario within a 48-hour period and caused significant flooding across the province. This volume of water is considerably larger than what can be expected during a 100-year flood event, a longstanding precautionary approach that enhances the resiliency of flood management in Ontario. That said, changes in landscape through urbanization, more sophisticated flood models and the projected intensification of severe storm events 50-year storms are expected to intensify by 20-57% by the 2020s compared to the observed 1971-2007 baseline, while 100-year storms are likely to intensify by 21-44%, depending on the global greenhouse gas emissions scenario may result in new floodplain designations. Where new floodplains or flood fringes are established, emergency services, health services, schools, or uses likely to contaminated waterways are prohibited, no new developments or redevelopments will be 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 43 - 2 - 53 permitted in high-risk Zone One areas, and in flood fringe Zone Two areas, development or site alteration will be subject to appropriate floodproofing standards to the flooding hazard elevation where permitted. This approach is outlined in the Official Plan, which also includes the policy to consider the potential impacts of climate change that may increase the risk associated with natural hazards when evaluating development applications and infrastructure projects. The design of urban spaces and application of tools available to municipal planners have a considerable capacity to guide adaptive and resilient development. The Government of Canada has highlighted floodplain informed zoning policies like those employed in the City of Kitchener as one of the most effective means to mitigate urban flood risk. Other highlighted options include ensuring that the built environment can withstand a range of environmental stress, helping to preserve natural environments that protect communities against hazards (for example, urban forestry to alleviate the urban heat island effect), and educating stakeholders and decision makers about risks and opportunities. Subdivision controls, site plan controls and other project-based, discretionary development controls can be very useful for adapting to climate change at the neighbourhood scale. A municipality may require that appropriate adaptation measures be taken by the developer; for instance, the lots in a proposed subdivision may be clustered in the least hazardous part of the property. In other cases, a site plan control ordinance may be used to require that green design features that address the impacts of climate change be incorporated (for instance, providing shade and rooftop gardens to decrease the public health risk from urban heat islands). The embedding of climate change considerations in design guidelines of development projects (including buildings, public areas, infrastructure, mechanical systems and landscaping) is another means to enhance resiliency. Examples include guidelines for the design of parking lots, streetscapes, building facades, storm water ponds, heritage dis components such as parking lots, parks and roadways, drainage ditches or a neighbourhood as a whole can reduce or magnify the impacts of climate change at the local scale. Good design can contribute to building resilience to climate change at the local level. For example, selecting appropriate building materials and landscaping can enhance passive cooling in buildings, reducing cooling demand. Although many municipalities have developed design guidelines without climate change in mind, their use can improve resilience to the impacts of climate change. Conversely, design guidelines may recommend or impose development standards that may inadvertently decrease resilience to climate change. For example, a municipality may prescribe building wide roads to accommodate emergency vehicles; however, those wide roads may also increase storm water volumes and magnify the urban heat island effect. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 44 - 2 - 54 Issue Brief #10: Health and Safety Risks LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ IĻğƌƷŷ ğƓķ ƭğŅĻƷǤ ƩźƭƉƭ Ʒƚ ĭźƷǤ ƭƷğŅŅ ƷŷğƷ ǞƚƩƉ ƚǒƷķƚƚƩƭ ğƓķ ƦğƩƷźĭźƦğƓƷƭ źƓ ƚǒƷķƚƚƩ ĭźƷǤ ƦƩƚŭƩğƒƭ ƭĻƩǝźĭĻƭ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ ĻǣƷƩĻƒĻ ŷĻğƷ ğƓķ ĭŷğƓŭźƓŭ ķźƭĻğƭĻ ǝĻĭƷƚƩƭ͵ Summers in Waterloo Region can be expected to warm significantly, particularly under a business-as- usual global emissions scenario. Mean summer temperatures may rise by 3.1°C by the 2050s and 5.3°C by the 2080s, compared to the 1990s observed summer mean temperature of 18.8°C. More dangerous for workers, however, is the projected increase in the number of very warm days, defined as maximum daily temperatures in Credit: CBC News excess of 30°C (not including humidex or the urban heat island effect) from the observed 1990s average of 10.1 per year. On the current trajectory, this number is likely to increase to 25 per year by the 2050s and 59 by the 2080s. Under these circumstances, summer conditions in Waterloo Region can be expected to more closely mirror those currently experienced in Southern Florida. Increases in summer temperatures present several occupational health and safety threats for outdoor the consequences of heat stress. High temperatures, high humidity, lack of shade and minimal air movement both indoors and outdoors health at risk, causing heat-related illnesses. These illnesses range from minor heat rashes and muscle cramps, to hot weather emergencies like heat exhaustion and heat stroke. When there is high relative air humidity, sweat evaporation and, consequently, may also be compromised, causing body temperature to rise more quickly. Carrying out prolonged physical activity in a hot, humid environment increases the risks of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. In absence of immediate medical attention, heat stroke could be fatal. Heat stroke fatalities do occur every summer in Canada. A study released by Toronto Public Health and Environment Canada predicts heat-related mortalities within the city of Toronto are likely to double by 2050 and triple by 2080 as a result of global warming. While a direct comparison to Waterloo Region cannot be drawn, this projection does highlight potential risks. Heat can also aggravate pre-existing conditions by placing stress on already strained body systems, particularly for people who have chronic cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. In addition, high temperature conditions can expose workers to an increased risk of bodily harm and injury, caused by fatigue and reduced vigilance. Work performed at a high ambient temperature can change worker skills and capacities when physical tasks are involved; this in turn can have consequences on work capacity, productivity, and safety. The physical discomfort associated with an increase in body temperature can 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 45 - 2 - 55 procedures and reducing vigilance during the performance of dangerous tasks. Heat-induced dehydration has also been linked to cognitive performance, visual motor capacities, and vigilance. On the individual level, heat tolerance levels seem to diminish in people over 45 years of age because physical activity is more demanding on their bodies. In addition, workers with health problems (such as heart disease, hypertension, or blood circulation problems), workers who are overweight, pregnant, on sodium-restricted diets or who take certain medications are more likely to have problems following excessive heat exposure. Climate change may result in deteriorating air quality within Waterloo Region. Increasing temperatures and stagnant air masses may foster the increase of airborne concentrations of pollutants such as ground-level ozone, which would likely increase incidences and exacerbate the symptoms of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. A 2008 report by the Ontario Medical Association suggests that air pollution was a contributing factor in the deaths of 348 citizens of Waterloo Region the preceding year. While this number is likely lower today -out and increased emissions standards for vehicles increasing ozone concentrations may reverse that trend, particularly among at- risk populations and those chronically exposed. Climate change is already being partially attributed as a cause for changing disease vectors in Canada. Between 2009 and 2015, the reported cases of Lyme Disease in Canada rose from 140 to more than 700, figures which healthcare officials suggest are likely under-reported. Federal health agencies suggest that raising global temperatures are at least partly to blame for the northward spread of blacklegged (deer) tick populations, the disease vector for Lyme. Southern Ontario is currently the most at-risk region in Canada, and as the climate continues to warm the reproductive value of ticks in the area is likely to increase, causing population growth and increasing the risk of contracting tick-spread diseases like Lyme. Dr. Gregory Taylor, Canada's chief public health officer, indicted in 2006 that model projections suggest that numbers of reported Lyme cases could increase to 10,000-20,000 per year nationally. Blacklegged ticks are most active during the summer, and live in woodlands, tall grasses and bushes, thriving in wet environments. The Province of Ontario suggests that if you live, work in or frequent wooded areas, you should: Wear light-coloured clothing so ticks can be easily spotted Wear long sleeves and long pants, and tuck pants into socks Use bug repellent containing DEET Have someone inspect for any attached ticks Keep grass mowed short Trim bushes and tree branches to let in sunlight (ticks avoid hot, dry locations) Credit: CBC News Create a border of gravel or woodchips one meter or 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 46 - 2 - 56 Issue Brief #11: Damage to Parks, Trails and Natural Areas LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ 5ğƒğŭĻ ƚ ƦğƩƉƭͲ ƷƩğźƌƭͲ ğƓķ ƓğƷǒƩğƌ ğƩĻğƭ ķǒĻ Ʒƚ ƌƚƓŭĻƩͲ ķƩźĻƩ ğƓķ ŷƚƷƷĻƩ ŷĻğƷ ǞğǝĻƭ ğƓķ ƭĻǝĻƩĻ ŅƌƚƚķźƓŭ͵ The changing nature of extreme events in Waterloo Region is likely to stress and damage municipal parks, trails and natural areas. By the 2050s, Waterloo Region is projected to experience 1.5-2 more days of extreme rainfall events measured as over 25mm/day compared to the observed 1971- 2007 average of 5. In addition, extreme rainfall Credit: CTV News Kitchener events of all measured return periods between 2-year and 100-year are projected to intensify by at least 17-20% by the 2020s compared to the aforementioned baseline. The most severe risk for intensification is projected to occur during high return period rainfall events, which are already the most hazardous to human and natural systems. 50 and 100-year storms could intensify by as much as 57% and 44%, respectively, by the 2020s. Recent storm events of lesser magnitude have already been found to exceed localized drainage capacity, inducing road, parking lot and building flooding, suggesting that the realization intensified high- magnitude, low-frequency events will significantly exacerbate flood risk. Flooding can have adverse impacts in natural areas. Prolonged inundation or saturation can result in root systems being unable to capture adequate oxygen to sustain the plant, particularly among less tolerant species, resulting in death and decay of large portions of a tree's root system. During flooding, some species can maintain normal roots in an active or dormant condition; others rely upon new secondary and adventitious roots that may form from the root collar or on the trunk near the water surface. Species unable to either maintain normal roots or grow new ones can quickly die. That said, natural areas are an incredibly useful means by which to offset urban flood risk, regardless of possible interruptions to citizen use. Natural systems tend to be much more resilient to flood impacts than built environments, and the diversion of runoff beyond storm sewer capacity to parkland, potentially inducing intentional flooding, can be used to minimize cumulative damages to the municipal environment. Flooding may also wash out natural trails, leading to impassibility and costly repairs. For instance, heavy November rains in the area of Sydney, Nova Scotia caused approximately $86,000 worth of damage to two popular hiking trains in 2016, including downed trees, eroded paths and the unmooring of bridges and boardwalks. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 47 - 2 - 57 Floodwaters drained into waterways may result in significant bank erosion. High height and velocity flows increases water friction along stream banks, resulting in the bank itself eroding and being carried downstream. Erosion can also by accelerated by the inundation of banks followed by rapid drops in flow after flooding. Erosion, particularly as a result of repeated flooding, can cause significant changes in bank characteristics, threatening near-stream developments. Measures which can increase bank resiliency include reductions in the percentage of impervious surfaces along banks, the use of more porous materials such as gravel and grasses to form banks, and stream bank stabilization practices such as not mowing to the edge of the river bank and planting deep rooted plants and grasses. Waterloo Region may expect up to 40% more freezing rain by the 2050s, which places significant weight stress on trees. Repeat exposure to significant weight loads is likely to stress weak branch junctures and develop vulnerable damaged points, causing limbs to fall. Trees with shallow or restricted root structures are also at risk of toppling. The frequency of wind gusts in excess of 70km/hour is projected to increase by 20-40% by the end of this century, similarly risking tree damage. These impacts are likely to reduce the usability of parks, trails and natural areas in the immediate aftermath, and increase maintenance needs by Environmental Services. Projected increases in summer temperatures and the number of days in excess of 30°C will induce increases in evapotranspiration, drying out soil. Without adequate moisture, significant plant stress may occur, inducing mortalities of vulnerable species. In addition, the top layers of dry soil under hot, sunny events and exacerbating flood risk, as well as leading to the compaction of soils where walked upon, inhibiting future plant growth. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 48 - 2 - 58 Issue Brief #12: Ecological Damage to Natural Heritage Systems LƒƦğĭƷ {ƷğƷĻƒĻƓƷ ĻğƭĻķ ǞğƷĻƩ ƷĻƒƦĻƩğƷǒƩĻƭͲ źƓĭƩĻğƭĻķ ĻǝğƦƚƩğƷźƚƓͲ ƒƚƩĻ ĻǣƷƩĻƒĻ ŷĻğƷ ǞğǝĻƭͲ ğƓķ ŅƌƚƚķźƓŭ͵ The projected changes in the characteristics of both climatic norms and extremes threaten the ecological aspects of regional natural heritage systems, defined by the province as s made up of natural heritage features and areas, and linkages intended to provide connectivity (at the regional or site level) and support natural processes which are necessary to maintain biological and geological diversity, natural functions, viable populations of indigenous species and ecosystems.Climate change is likely to produce increased frequency, duration, and intensity of disturbances (such as floods or grass fires), and greater extremes in climate and weather events (e.g., intense precipitation, dry conditions, windstorms, ice storms, and lightning), all of which may result in ecological impacts. Water availability to forest plants varies with precipitation, evaporative demand and the capacity of the soil to store water, each of which may be impacted by climate change. The soil water balance of forested sites is important because water availability strongly affects forest productivity. A rough approximation can be made that in Southern Ontario, 50% of rainfall will be absorbed by the soil, and approximately 50% will be lost to runoff and evaporation, depending on saturation level, the type of soil and whether it has been baked under dry conditions. However, even after heavy rains, water is usually only easily available for trees for a few days. Extended hot, dry conditions are likely to result in increased instances of tree mortality in the interim, beginning with more sensitive tree species, and may induce significant ecological changes on longer timescales among species poorly adapted to changing conditions. Water-stressed vegetation is also more susceptible to fire. These impacts can be mitigated by aggressive tree breeding to increase resistance to insect pests or to speed adaptation to the emerging climate; controlling competing vegetation (e.g., via thinning, weed control) to reduce stress to regenerating trees and help produce desired species composition in the future forest; and maintenance cutting to encourage healthy stands. Decreasing water levels and increasing water temperatures may have significant impacts on regional aquatic ecology, the result of higher sustained temperatures and very hot days, and the corresponding increase in evapotranspiration. Nesting sites for waterfowl will become more accessible to predators and fish and amphibian species will be threatened as a result of surface water temperature increases. Slow-moving, high temperature waterways, particularly those in agricultural regions, are more likely to become eutrophicated, decreasing available dissolved oxygen for aquatic species. These impacts may result in adverse consequences for regional aquatic biodiversity. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 49 - 2 - 59 More significant rainfall events may threaten ecological integrity in a few ways. In addition to physical damage caused by inundation or fast-moving waters, waters diverted via storm sewers may result in pollution loading in waterways. Storm sewers drain untreated urban runoff into draining waterways, primarily the Grand River. While travelling over impermeable urban surfaces, runoff picks up contaminants like gasoline; motor oil; construction sediments; heavy metals such as nickel, copper, zinc, cadmium, and lead; trash and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from roadways and parking lots, as well as fertilizers and pesticides from lawns. In agricultural areas, heavy rains are likely to cause runoff of fertilizers, pesticides other mineral-rich products. The infusion and depositing of these contaminants in waterways may result in adverse impacts to aquatic species. Climate change may also exacerbate the risk of harmful insects and diseases. Persistent summer dry conditions, for instance, led to extensive damage of hickory forests in Southern Ontario by the hickory bark beetle between 2001 and 2005. While a return to more normal conditions has allowed a successive recovery, such impacts could occur again. Likewise, while higher annual temperatures may increase the growing season for trees, they may also induce a longer breeding season for insects which might become pests if factors which keep their populations in check do not keep pace. Many of the most stressed host before infection or disease expression occurs. For instance, sustained dry roots may result in root decay fungus in shallow roots. Species ill-adapt to changing climate conditions may face more rapid declines because of increased susceptibility to pests and/or diseases. 2/2/17 The City of Kitchener - 50 - 2 - 60