HomeMy WebLinkAboutINS-14-013 - Natural Gas Rates Customer Research Results & Purchase Policy Options Staff Rep►�►r
I r Infrastruc�ture5ervrresDepartment wvwuukitchenerra
REPORT TO: Finance and Corporate Services Committee
DATE OF MEETING: April 28, 2014
SUBMITTED BY: Wally Malcolm, Director Utilities, 519-741-2600 ext.4538
PREPARED BY: Wally Malcolm, Director Utilities, 519-741-2600 ext.4538
WARD(S) INVOLVED: All
DATE OF REPORT: April 16, 2014
REPORT NO.: INS-14-013
SUBJECT: NATURAL GAS RATES CUSTOMER RESEARCH
RESULTS AND PURCHASE POLICY OPTIONS
RECOMMENDATION:
For direction.
BACKGROUND:
At the December 9, 2013 Council Meeting, Council passed the following resolution:
"That staff be directed to proceed with requests for proposal to hire the services of a
Research Consulting firm to develop and conduct quantitative and qualitative research
related to our natural gas supply program with Kitchener residents in 2014, as outlined in
Infrastructure Services Department report INS-13-097."
The research is now complete and will be presented by the consultant. Council's direction is
requested with respect to natural gas purchasing policy options. Based on the direction
provided, staff will report to a future committee meeting with specific policy details and final
recommendations.
REPORT:
In mid-December 2013, the external research work of this project was awarded to Metroline
Research Group Inc. of Kitchener. Metroline Research Group Inc.'s quote was the lowest
submitted and the firm has extensive municipal and private sector research experience.
Staff met with Metroline on December 19, 2013 to outline the project scope and objectives.
Following the meeting, Metroline began working on evaluating the best methods and
approaches to obtain the required customer insight.
Metroline's Approach
Metroline developed a draft customer questionnaire which was circulated amongst staff and
Council for review and comment. To evaluate customer understanding of the language and
terms used in the survey, the questionnaire was tested amongst participants in two separate
Focus Groups held at Metroline on January 22, 2014. Seventeen customers participated in the
5 - 1
Focus Groups and provided valuable feedback related to the questionnaire as well as their
perceptions of Kitchener Utilities.
Based on the feedback obtained by the Focus Group participants, the questionnaire was refined
by Metroline.
The finalized survey was posted to the Kitchener Utilities website in early February.
Metroline began randomly calling customers on February 22, 2014 and completed the
telephone survey on March 29, 2014.
Metroline will be in attendance at the committee meeting to further elaborate on the process
they undertook and the outcomes of the consultation (refer to attachment).
Natural Gas Purchasing Policy Review
Based on the customer research results and community engagement on natural gas rates, staff
is seeking direction from Council on what changes, if any, to make to the current natural gas
purchasing policy. A historical supply rate comparison graph has been included (Appendix A)
for reference.
Current Purchase Policy& Gas Portfolio
In order to provide rate stability, the current purchase policy permits a blended approach to
buying natural gas supply for Kitchener Utilities system customers. Fixed price contracts are
purchased for requirements up to five years into the future. Natural Gas, at variable market
prices, is purchased along with fixed price gas. The cost of these supplies is blended into a
portfolio that is diversified by price, term and supplier. The projected average supply cost,
including administration, is recovered in the supply rate without any mark-up or discount.
Natural Gas rates typically change annually.
The projected price of the gas portfolio is managed using a "rails approach". This approach
guides the minimum and maximum amounts of fixed price natural gas to be purchased for each
year of the five year purchase horizon. The following table illustrates the current rails approach:
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Maximum 90% 70% 50% 30% 20%
Minimum 40% 30% 20% 10% 10%
In addition to the rails approach, the management of the forecast portfolio price risk and its
potential impact on the supply rate are guided by a quantitative model and advice provided by
external consultants to Kitchener Utilities. This added approach focuses on mitigating the risk of
exceeding a target or budget price for the supply portfolio. Entering into fixed price contracts,
known as "hedging", is done only to protect the price target with a high degree of confidence. In
other words, hedging is only done when deemed necessary. If not, the portfolio is subject to
market conditions and can benefit from falling prices.
5 - 2
Policy Options
The following practical natural gas purchasing policy options are available to Council:
1. Phase-out Fixed Price Purchases
2. Modify Current Hedging Approach
3. Maintain Current Hedging Approach
Phase-out Fixed Price Purchases
Phasing out fixed price purchases would reflect a desire on Council's part to change direction
and fully rely on market pricing for system natural gas customers. A similar approach to rate-
setting by Union Gas can be taken. Going forward, customers would pay the going price for gas
based on current market conditions. Due to the potential volatility and cash flow risk, the rate
would change quarterly to keep pace with market fluctuations.
Changes to purchase and billing processes would be required, with associated cost impacts.
While some internal and external cost savings can be achieved by eliminating price risk
management activities, some customer-related billing and communication costs would increase
based on more frequent rate changes. As the existing fixed price contracts expire, an increasing
proportion of supply would be subject to market prices. This transition to fully market-based
pricing would permit a gradual phase-in from annual to quarterly rate changes over a period of
perhaps two years.'
Modify Current Hedging Approach
Making modifications to the current purchasing policy and approach to price risk management
would reflect a desire on Council's part to achieve a different balance of interests between
customers that value rate stability and customers that value market-based pricing. These
modifications could include changes to the existing rails and / or the future planned purchase
period to which they apply.
For example, the future purchase period could be reduced, or increased, by two years. A desire
by Council to effectively reduce the hedging of gas supply in any future year to accommodate a
greater portion of market-priced gas could be achieved by reducing the minimum rail. Reducing
the minimum rail to zero for years 4 and 5 would have the same practical effect as reducing the
plan period by two years. Other changes to the minimum and maximum rails could be made to
reflect Council's direction for the extent of hedging to be applied to the system natural gas
portfolio.
As an alternative to phase-in, all or a portion of the existing fixed price contracts could be liquidated at prevailing
market value (realizing either an immediate gain or loss to subsequently be reflected in rates) to accelerate the
process of transitioning to market-based pricing of the system supply portfolio.
5 - 3
Maintain Current Hedging Approach
Maintaining the current purchasing policy and approach to price risk management would reflect
a continued desire on Council's part to provide rate stability to system natural gas customers.
Going forward, the blended rate paid by customers would remain "sticky" in comparison to the
market price, lagging the cyclical trend both higher and lower. Existing purchase and billing
processes would continue, including the annual review and approval of rates, a practice
currently familiar to customers.
Next Steps
Council's preliminary direction with respect to natural gas purchase policy is required at this time
to inform staff's work to update the policy, if required. Staff will report back to committee in May
with specific policy details and final recommendations. This will be followed by gas rate change
recommendations in June prior to a July 1 implementation.
ALIGNMENT WITH CITY OF KITCHENER STRATEGIC PLAN:
The public engagement process aligns with the strategic foundation of effective and efficient
government — communication and customer service. Good customer service, within the
corporation, responds to the changing needs and expectations of stakeholders.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS:
This program has been funded through the existing Kitchener Utilities 2014 marketing budget in
accordance with the contract previously awarded by Council.
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT:
This project relates to the consult theme of the Community Engagement Strategy. Staff
consulted and worked with Corporate Communications and Marketing, Special Events,
Community Programs and Services, Aquatics and Athletics, Community Resources Centres,
The Aud and Arenas, and the Kitchener Market in developing the communication and
community outreach strategy.
Media Outreach
Media Releases were issued on December 9, 2013 and February 5, 2014 informing customers
of the survey and the opportunity to provide feedback on their preference for stable or variable
natural gas rates. Interviews were also completed with 570 News and CBC Kitchener 89.1 FM.
Print Communications
Kitchener Utilities sent out a bill insert in February utility bills to all customers encouraging them
to go online and fill out the survey or request a paper copy to complete. Advertisements were
also prepared for You Kitchener and Leisure promoting the survey and options to complete the
survey.
5 - 4
Social Media
Corporate Communications assisted with the use of social media to promote the survey.
Messaging about the survey was shared on Twitter and Facebook for twelve days in total. On
Twitter this generated 22 responses, 65 clicks, 23 retweets and two replies. The average reach
on Twitter was 17,400 for the campaign. On Facebook the posts had 82 clicks, four likes, six
shares, one comment and reach of 2,776. We also used Short Messaging Service (SMS), text
messaging, as an option for customers to learn more about the survey. 75 people signed up to
receive the text messages and we received four messages from this method of communication.
Website
Information was posted on the Kitchener Utilities website explaining the difference between a
stable rates and variable rates model. The online survey was linked from the Kitchener Utilities
website to Metroline's online survey. From February 1, 2014 until April 1, 2014 this web page
had 1,353 unique visitors.
Research Outreach
Our third party research consultant recruited customers to be involved in focus groups and
telephone surveys.
Community Events Outreach
Kitchener Utilities staff was out in the community explaining Kitchener Utilities natural gas rates
survey and encouraging citizens to complete the survey. Staff spoke face to face with over
2,200 customers about the natural gas rates survey. Below is a summary of the events staffed
attended and the number of customers they spoke with at each event.
Community Outreach Events
Event Date Number of Customers
Kitchener Ranger Game Feb.9 1,000
Kitchener Market Feb.15 500
Kitchener Events - Hockey Town Feb.22 100
Activa Sportsplex Feb.27 70
Mayor's Advisory Committee for
Seniors Feb.24 12
Kitchener Market Mar.1 500
Breithaupt Centre and Pool Mar.3 20
Kitchener Events - St. Patrick's Day
Event Mar.14 20
Total Number of Customers 2,222
Surveys were also distributed and made available at Kitchener Community Centres.
Community Centre staff promoted the survey to patrons to their programs and classes.
5 - 5
Non-residential Customer Outreach
Personalized letters were mailed out to 4,000 non-residential, small general service customers,
to promote and encourage them to complete the online business survey.
Acknowledged by: Pauline Houston , DCAO, Infrastructure Services
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