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HomeMy WebLinkAboutDSD-2021-127 - Regional Official Plan Review: Growth ScenariosStaffRepoit Development Services Department REPORT TO: Planning & Strategic Initiatives Committee DATE OF MEETING: August 9, 2021 J K, R www.kitchener. ca SUBMITTED BY: Bustamante, Rosa, Director of Planning, 519-741-2200 ext. 7319 PREPARED BY: Donegani, Tim, Senior Planner, 519-741-2200 ext. 7067 WARD(S) INVOLVED: All Wards DATE OF REPORT: July 28, 2021 REPORT NO.: DSD -2021-127 SUBJECT: Regional Official Plan Review: Growth Scenarios RECOMMENDATION: THAT the comments included in Staff Report DSD -2021-127 (Regional Official Plan Review: Growth Scenarios) be endorsed; and further, THAT staff be directed to forward this Staff Report DSD -2021-127 and Council's comments to the Region of Waterloo for their consideration in the update to the Region's Official Plan. REPORT HIGHLIGHTS: The purpose of this report is to: • Present Regional growth scenarios for greenfield development and intensification to the year2051, and their implications on the need for new Designated Greenfield Area (DGA) for suburban Community and Employment Area development; • Present proposed regional criteria for evaluating new candidate Designated Greenfield Areas (DGA); • Seek Council endorsement of staff comments on the Regional Official Plan (ROP) review growth scenarios and evaluation criteria; • Outline next steps in the Regional Official Plan review process and subsequent implications for the City's Official Plan; • Community engagement has been led by the Region and is being conducted primarily online at engagewr.ca/req ional-off icial-pIan ; and, • This report supports the delivery of core services. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: • The Region is planning for 366,000 more residents and 194,000 more jobs by 2051, as per provincial growth projections and this growth will be allocated to the City and other area municipalities through the ROP review. *** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. *** Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance. • The Region is evaluating four scenarios that vary the residential intensification rate and greenfield density to accommodate growth. Depending on which scenario is selected, urban boundary expansions ranging between 530-1,510 hectares would be required across the Region. • Staff are in preliminary support of Scenario 3 (65 residents and jobs per hectare for the Designated Greenfield Area and a residential intensification target of 60%) that would result in no urban boundary expansion for Community Areas, but more information from the Region is required prior to providing final comments. • All scenarios include a 680 ha urban boundary expansion for Employment Areas. • Staff support Scenario 3 because it is reasonable given current and emerging trends; supports higher order transit and active transportation needed to address climate change; makes financially beneficial use of existing infrastructure; protects agricultural land; and contributes to complete communities. • Staff suggest that the Region further quantify criteria to evaluate growth scenarios and potential locations for urban boundary expansion to allow for more transparent decision making. BACKGROUND: The Waterloo Region Official Plan (ROP) is an important planning document that guides decisions related to growth, development, and community investment across the Region. It must be updated periodically in accordance with key Provincial planning documents such as A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2019) and the Provincial Policy Statement (2020). It outlines key planning ideas and policies including the Countryside Line, the LRT central transit corridor, regional groundwater recharge area, and intensification targets. Regional Council initiated a Review of the current ROP (2009) in August 2018. The Region is updating its Official Plan to accommodate 366,000 more residents and 194,000 more jobs by 2051. The ROP will continue to have a significant impact on planning in Kitchener by establishing key policies which include defining the countryside line to limit sprawl and identifying areas for growth and intensification. The ROP review will: • distribute forecasted growth by providing population and employment allocations to the City and other area municipalities; • set minimum density targets for the Downtown Kitchener Urban Growth Centre (UGC), Major Transit Station Areas (MTSAs) along the LRT corridor, Employment Areas and other Strategic Growth Areas; and • set minimum residential intensification targets for area municipalities (the percentage of residential development that is to occur annually within Built -Up Areas). Depending on whether there is sufficient capacity within the built-up areas and existing Designated Greenfield Areas (DGAs) to accommodate the growth forecast, the ROP may identify new DGAs via urban boundary expansions along with minimum density targets for their growth and development. Following the approval of the Region's Official Plan, the City will be required to update its Official Plan to provide more detailed policies to accommodate these population and employment allocations and targets. Figure 1 — Conceptual Illustration of the City's Urban Area and Countryside CITY URBAN AREA COUNTRYSIDE Built -Up Area Designate(# Greenfield Area Protected Countryside Built Batindary Urban Area Boundary] Countryside Line The City's role in the Region's Official Plan Review project is to provide the Region with City comments, concerns, and opportunities throughout their process, recognizing that the City's Official Plan will need to be amended following approval of the ROP update. The ROP update will be adopted by Regional Council and eventually approved by the Province in mid - 2022. Staff will keep City Council apprised of this project at key milestones. In March 2021, through report DSD -2021-5, City Council provided comments to the Region including: • support for the proposed Major Transit Station Area boundaries based on the consistent application of criteria in the new Growth Plan; • support for the alternative density target for the Block Line Station Area; • support for the proposed Regional Employment Areas and preliminary Regional responses to employment conversion requests; • the ROP can and should do more to support housing affordability, for example by strengthening condominium conversion policies, encouraging rental replacement, and enabling the Cities to implement Inclusionary Zoning; • Newly proposed Major Intensification Corridors are supported in principle, but additional analysis and consultation with a broad range of city -building stakeholders is required; • the Region should further consider the role of and opportunity for local intensification and its implications on the need for additional Designated Greenfield Area (DGA); • the ROP review should focus on tangible and implementable climate change policies to make a meaningful impact; and • the Region should analyse a 100% intensification scenario through the Land Needs Assessment in the that would require no Urban Area Boundary expansion. Comments in report DSD -2021-127 are in addition to those provided at a staff level since 2019 and by Council through report DSD -2021-5. These comments will influence the growth scenario selected by the Region and ultimately the amount of new Designated Greenfield Area land identified for urban development. The City will provide additional comments on the draft ROP policies expected to be released this fall. REPORT: 1. Growth Scenarios The Region is undertaking a land needs assessment to understand the ability of the region to accommodate population and employment growth to 2051. This must follow the provincial land needs assessment methodology (LNA). A key step in the LNA is the development and analysis of growth scenarios with varying assumptions regarding intensification and greenfield growth. The land needs assessment process differs for Community Areas and Employment Areas. 1.1 Community Areas Community Areas accommodate all forms of housing and most population -related jobs and office jobs. The Region has outlined a base case and three alternative scenarios. These vary the rate of residential intensification and density of Community Areas in the DGA. The higher the intensification rate and the higher the DGA density, the lower the quantity of new DGA required to accommodate the growth forecast. The scenarios drive a need for an expansion of the Urban Area Boundary and additional DGA for Community Areas ranging from a need for an additional 828 hectares in the base case, down to a small surplus of Community Area DGA in Scenario 3 as indicated in the last column of Figure 2. In March 2021 (report number DSD -2021-5), City council requested that the Region evaluate a 100% intensification scenario with no Urban Area Boundary expansion. Scenario 3 evaluates a 60% rate of intensification and a DGA density target of 65 people and jobs per hectare across the entire DGA (both new and existing). This would mean that, going forward, newly developed DGA would need to achieve a density of 71 residents and jobs per hectare as shown in Figure 2. Even though the density target is 60% (not 100% as requested by the City), this scenario meets the intent of the City's request with respect to community areas in that there would be no Urban Area Boundary expansion. Figure 2: Community Area DGA 2019-2051 City Comments: The City appreciates the inclusion of scenario 3 that would result in no additional DGA for Community Areas. The City has not yet received the updated intensification strategy that addresses previous city comments, DGA analysis nor the financial impact analysis required to provide detailed comments. However, staff offer the following preliminary comments and observations in support of scenario 3 for the Region's consideration. • Assuming a 60% average residential intensification rate over the next 30 years is likely reasonable considering historic trends in the rate of intensification. According to the Region's Draft Intensification Strategy "Intensification has historically accounted for approximately 50% of Region -wide growth from 2006 to 2019 with the Region -wide share increasing from 44% over the 2006 to 2011 period to 52% from 2011 to 2019." Increases in the rate of intensification are similar in Kitchener increasing from 41 % in 2006-2011 up to 47% in 2011-2019. • Market and policy shifts towards medium and high density housing forms lend themselves to intensification. Furthermore, a shift to autonomous vehicles, active transportation and increased transit ridership are likely to unlock substantial opportunities for intensification of existing underutilized areas, including parking lots, before 2051. • Intensification helps make efficient use of land and leverage investment in existing and planned infrastructure including dedicated rapid transit and pedestrian and cycling infrastructure. A higher intensification rate will assist in the development of complete communities that are compact and pedestrian, cycling and transit -oriented. • The scenario 3 assumption of 71 residents and jobs per hectare in new DGA Community Area seems reasonable considering that the current DGA is already developed at 54 residents and jobs per hectare with 96% of housing being grade related. Modest increases in the share of high and medium density housing in the DGA should make the scenario 3 DGA density achievable considering policy and market shifts towards higher density that are already underway. • Frequent, and higher order transit will be required in many parts of the Region, including within new community areas to achieve climate and transportation goals. A density of 80 residents and jobs per hectare is required to achieve frequent (10-15 minute) bus service as shown in Figure 3. Densities in new DGA should be transit - supportive. Ideally, achieving people and job densities of 100/hectare would allow for 5 minute bus service and set the stage for future LRT or BRT connections and would help achieve the Region's goals of an 80 per cent greenhouse gas reduction by 2050. Currently transportation accounts for 49% of the Waterloo Region communities greenhouse gas emissions. While 100 people and jobs per hectare is an ambitious goal for new greenfield development it would lead to a much more sustainable form of urban development. The Region of Waterloo should also ensure that transit service is provided to communities when residents begin moving in so that transit and active transportation forms as a new habit on day one. Figure 3 - Minimum Transit Supportive Densities Basic Transit Service (One bus every 20-30 minutes) Frequent Transit Service (One Bus every 10-15 minutes) Very Frequent Bus Service (One bus every 5 minutes with potential for LRT or BRT) Dedicated Rapid Transit (LRT/BRT) Subway 22 units per ha; 50 residents & jobs Combined 37 units per ha / 80 residents & jobs Combined 45 units per ha / 100 residents & jobs Combined 72 units per ha / 160 residents & jobs Combined 90 units per ha / 200 residents & jobs Combined Source: Ministry of Transportation, Transit Supportive Guidelines (2012) The required 30 -year planning horizon (as compared to the typical 20 -year horizon) introduces additional uncertainty to the planning process. It is difficult to forecast development trends so far in the future. The City currently has a designated and available supply of land within the Built-up Area and existing Designated Greenfield Area to accommodate significant growth beyond the 15 -year supply requirement of the Provincial Policy Statement. This is detailed in section 6.3 of the 2020 Annual Growth Monitoring Report (DSD -20-157). Selecting Scenario 3 and foregoing an Urban Area Boundary expansion through this ROP review would allow additional time to monitor the need for additional DGA. This decision will be reconsidered through the next ROP review in 10 years. Once lands are included in the DGA it would be extremely difficult to remove these permissions if we find the lands are not needed based on contemporary trends. The capital costs of growth are mostly recovered through development charges, borne by developers and passed on to landowners. However, the maintenance and replacement costs of this infrastructure are borne by taxpayers and ratepayers. While intensification primarily makes use of existing infrastructure, greenfield development requires the extension of new services including roads, water, sanitary sewers, stormwater management, sanitary pumping stations, etc. — all City responsibilities. Staff are currently analysing the relationship between the cost of development and tax and rate revenues and how this varies across the City. Our preliminary findings are that the City budgets $5,000 per linear metre to reconstruct this infrastructure at the end of its lifecycle (approx. 60 years). Annual City maintenance costs for roads, street lighting, sanitary sewers, water and stormwater are approximately $36 per linear metre. Accordingly, the City prefers scenario 3 with its higher density and intensification from a financial perspective. The financial implications for the City need to be considered through the evaluation of growth scenarios and greenfield candidate areas. 1.2 Employment Areas Employment Areas accommodate Employment in industrial -type buildings, and some office and population -related jobs. All growth scenarios use the same assumptions requiring 680 additional hectares of DGA for Employment Lands region -wide. In this analysis the forecasted increase in jobs are allocated between employment lands and community areas according to the industrial forecasting done as part of the Region's Employment Strategy Technical Brief. This takes into consideration existing vacant employment lands, intensification and employment density forecasts. None of these scenarios address the intent of the City's request that a scenario be evaluated that includes no Urban Area Boundary expansion. It has yet to be determined if any additional DGA for Employment Lands would be located in Kitchener. Notably, none of the requested Urban Area Boundary expansions for Employment Areas are located in Kitchener (See Attachment B to the Regional Report). City comments: • All of the scenarios currently contemplate urban expansion for employment areas. The City understands and appreciates the need to designate new DGA Employment Areas to accommodate employment growth, especially to attract industrial uses that require separation from sensitive uses or have low employment densities. • While important for growth in manufacturing and planning for low employment density uses like warehousing and logistics, new DGA Employment Areas planned at 35 employees per hectare will not be transit supportive and necessitate an auto- oriented approach to transportation. The employment strategy and land needs assessment should consider a variety of assumptions regarding employment densities, and what share and what type of employment will be accommodated within Community Areas vs. Employment Areas. Planning for a higher share of jobs within Community areas would provide more opportunities for transit supportive employment development and complete communities. Additionally, the Region should consider policy direction that requires and supports net zero development and other sustainability initiatives when DGA employment areas are contemplated. 2. Growth Scenario Evaluation Criteria The Evaluation Criteria for Proposed Growth Scenarios included, as Attachment A, to the Regional Report (included as Attachment A to report DSD -2021-127) are intended to inform the selection of a preferred growth Scenario. These include nine objectives and multiple evaluation criteria under three themes of: • Growth Management; • Transportation, Infrastructure and Financing; and • Agricultural and Mineral Aggregate Resources. 3. Candidate Urban Areas The Region received 55 requests for Urban Area Boundary expansions from landowners and some area municipalities. Two of these areas are located in Kitchener as shown on Attachment C of the Regional report (Attachment A). If the land needs assessment identifies a need for new DGA to accommodate growth, Regional staff will assess the merits of new DGA candidate areas included in Attachment D of the Regional report (Attachment A) and will consult with the public, stakeholders, landowners and the area municipalities to determine the most appropriate locations for any required Urban Area Boundary expansions. As set out in the ROP, any future urban expansions must be considered on lands within the Countryside Line. Where the Countryside Line coincides with the Protected Countryside designation in the ROP, the Countryside Line is to be considered a permanent boundary (see Figure 1 in this report and Attachment C to the Regional Report). The Evaluation Criteria for Candidate Urban Expansion Areas are categorized in the following themes: • Growth Management • Transportation, Infrastructure and Financing • Agricultural and Mineral Aggregate Resources • Natural Heritage and Sourcewater Protection • Livability; and • Economic Growth. City comments: The City generally supports the themes, objectives, and evaluation criteria for both the growth scenarios and candidate urban boundary expansions. However, we suggest quantifying and weighting these criteria to assist in more principled and transparent decision making. Complete, pedestrian and transit -oriented communities; climate change; protecting agricultural land; housing choice and affordability; and financial criteria should be weighted heavily. Analysing climate and financial impacts would benefit substantially from quantification. 4. Timing and Next Steps Region consults on Growth Scenarios, Boundary Expansion and Summer 2021 Evaluation Criteria Draft Land Needs Assessment released including population and September 2021 employment allocations to area municipalities Draft ROP amendment presented to Regional council Late 2021 Statutory public meeting to consider adopting growth related Q1 2022 components of ROP review Draft Amendment for non -growth related components of ROP Fall 2021 -Winter presented to council (natural heritage and water resources systems 2022 mapping, mineral aggregates, source water protection and agricultural system) Statuary Public Meeting to consider adopting non -Growth -Related Q2 2022 components of ROP review Province approvesgrowth-related ROP amendment July 2022 Province approves nongrowth-related ROP amendment Fall 2022 City OP update to conform with ROP amendment 2023+ STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT: This report supports the delivery of core services. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: Capital Budget — The recommendation has no immediate impact on the Capital Budget. Operating Budget — The recommendation has no immediate impact on the Operating Budget. How and where the City of Kitchener grows has significant financial implications on the capital, lifecycle and operational costs of providing infrastructure and community services for future generations. Additional details regarding the financial implications for various growth scenarios will be detailed in the Region's Fiscal Impact Assessment of the Growth Scenarios. In addition, low density and sprawling communities can contribute to social and environmental issues like climate change, loss of prime agricultural land, noise pollution and public health impacts which are difficult to quantify but are important to consider. Work to update the City's Official Plan to conform with the ROP must be completed within one year of the ROP update's approval by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing. There is currently a budget of $12,500 in 2022 to complete this work. The adequacy of this budget will be reviewed once the extent of the conformity work has been scoped. Any new Urban Expansion Area within the City would require resource -intensive secondary planning. These areas would not be priority locations for growth within the next 10 years but would compete for limited planning resources in the short term. COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT: INFORM/CONSULT — This report has been posted to the City's website with the agenda in advance of the Council / Committee meeting. The Region is leading the consultation on this project. Engagement is primarily virtual and centred on www.engagewr.ca/regional-official-plan. In addition to asynchronous engagement, live engagement events included: o A Public Information Meeting of Regional Council o Kick-off open houses, including one at the Kitchener Public Library, Fall 2019; o Ask a Planner webinars held June 2020 and June 2021; and o COVID-19 symposium held jointly with the University of Waterloo, August 2020. PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES: DSD -2021-5 Regional Official Plan Review APPROVED BY: Justin Readman, General Manager, Development Services ATTACHMENTS: Attachment A Region of Waterloo Report PDL -CPL -21-29 Regional Official Plan Review - Preliminary Growth Scenarios and Evaluation Criteria Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Region of Waterloo Planning, Development and Legislative Services Community Planning To: Planning and Works Committee Meeting Date: June 10, 2021 Report Title: Regional Official Plan Review Update — Preliminary Growth Scenarios and Evaluation Criteria 1. Recommendation: For information. 2. Purpose/issue: The purpose of this report is to identify preliminary growth scenarios, including a base case scenario that will be considered as part of the Regional Official Plan (ROP) Review. Each scenario tests progressively denser development assumptions to assess the amount of land needed to accommodate the Region's population and employment forecasts to 2051. This report also outlines the preliminary criteria for evaluating the growth scenarios, and any required urban expansion areas 3. Strategic Plan: The growth scenario analysis will establish the long-term framework for where and how Waterloo Region will grow and aligns with the following strategic focus areas: Thriving Economy; Sustainable Transportation; Environment and Climate Action; and Health, Safe and Inclusive Communities. As well, it responds directly to Action 3.5.1, Promote efficient urban land use through greenfield and intensification policies while conserving natural heritage and agricultural areas. 4. Key Considerations: Waterloo Region is anticipating significant population and employment growth by 2051. The Provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan) forecasts a population of 923,000 and 470,000 jobs for Waterloo Region by 2051. This represents growth of approximately 324,600 people and 177,000 jobs between 2021 and 2051. Under the Growth Plan, the Region must amend the ROP to accommodate these forecasts. 3586089 Pagel of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 The Region must use the Provincial Land Needs Assessment Methodology to determine its land needs to 2051. The Province's Land Needs Assessment Methodology sets out certain requirements municipalities must follow to determine how much land is needed to accommodate their forecasted growth to 2051, including the need for any urban expansions. Among the key requirements is the need to achieve the Growth Plan's minimum intensification and designated greenfield area (DGA) density targets. The overall objective is to provide a balanced supply of land that reflects market demand, avoids shortages that could increase land costs for both housing and employment uses, and addresses other Regional policy objectives. The land needs assessment is carried out in two parts. The first considers the Community Area that will accommodate future residential growth. The second part considers employment growth in the Employment Area. Community Area The Growth Plan specifies that a minimum of 50 percent of all residential development occurring annually must occur through intensification (i.e., constructed within the built- up area). The Region must also plan to achieve a minimum DGA density target of 50 residents and jobs per hectare, measured across both the existing and any new DGA (i.e., any new area added to the DGA). Employment Area Employment growth is divided into four categories: population -based employment, major office, employment land employment, and rural employment. Generally speaking, population -based employment and major office will be accommodated within the Community Area. Employment land employment is dealt with separately. Once the existing employment land supply is determined, the amount of new employment land area within the DGA is determined. The base case and preliminary growth scenarios suggest Waterloo Region will need additional land to accommodate its forecasted growth. The Region retained Dillon Consulting and Watson and Associates Economists Ltd. to assess the Region's land needs to 2051. Although this work is still ongoing, the consulting team has run a base case and three preliminary growth scenarios to test the impact of progressively higher intensification and DGA density targets on the Region's total land needs. Table 1 summarizes the results of the base case and the three preliminary growth scenarios. Table 1: Results of Base Case and Preliminary Growth Scenarios 3679209 Page 2 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 To accommodate the Region's forecasted employment growth, the Region will need to add approximately 680 hectares of new DGA for employment land. This estimate considers the region's existing supply of employment land, and assumes a gross density of 35 jobs per hectare. The 680 hectares employment land need remains constant across each scenario. The base case scenario generally reflects what the housing market has been delivering on an average basis over the past few years. The base case aligns with the Growth Plan's minimum intensification target of 50 percent. However, the minimum DGA density target of 60 people and jobs per hectare is slightly above to better support transit ridership. Given Council's significant investments in the ION light rail transit system, and its commitment to extend the system to Cambridge, the base case scenario underestimates Waterloo Region's potential and capacity to accommodate higher levels of intensification over the next 30 years. In general, the higher the intensification and DGA density targets, the lower the quantity of new DGA needed to accommodate the Region's forecasted growth. To varying degrees, these scenarios support the achievement of Council's strategic objectives, such as protecting farmland, offering more travel choices, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, each of the growth scenarios still project a region -wide deficit of DGA lands to 2051, ranging from approximately 530 hectares to 1,200 hectares. This deficit is driven in part by the projected need for new employment lands (i.e., 680 hectares), which as noted earlier remains constant across each scenario. The preferred growth scenario must balance several Provincial and Regional planning objectives. The growth scenarios will be evaluated against a series of criteria focusing on six themes: Growth Management; Transportation, Infrastructure and Financing; Agricultural and Mineral Aggregate Resources; Natural Environment and Source Water Protection; Livability; and Economic Growth. Each theme includes a set of criteria or questions to allow for a broad comparison among the growth scenarios. The evaluation criteria also 3679209 Page 3 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 incorporate a "climate change lens" to identify growth scenarios that help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and support stronger and more resilient communities. Attachment A contains a list of the evaluation criteria for the growth scenarios. The preferred growth scenario will also be informed by five key background studies: Long -Term Population and Housing Growth Analysis, 2051; Intensification Strategy; Employment Strategy, Financial Impact Analysis; and Climate Change Policy Direction Paper. The draft Employment Strategy and Financial Impact Analysis will be available for pubic review and comment in the coming weeks. Early drafts of the other three studies were posted on the Region's online engagement site last year and early 2021, and will be finalized over the summer. The Region has received 55 requests for an urban expansion/designation from landowners and some area municipalities. Forty of the requests (approximately 1,505 hectares) seek to expand an Urban Area, or a Township Urban Area. Two requests (approximately 66 hectares) propose to redesignate lands within the countryside for urban development. The remaining 13 requests (approximately 95 hectares) relate to a Rural Settlement Area, or a Rural Employment Area in one of the four townships. The rural -related requests will not be reviewed as part of the growth scenarios and land needs assessment work. Instead, they will be reviewed as part of the refinement of the Province's agricultural land base, which provides an opportunity to more accurately delineate the Rural Settlement Areas and Rural Employment Areas in the ROP. Attachment B includes a list of the requests for urban expansion/designation received to date. Attachment C contains a map showing the approximate locations of the urban expansion requests for each municipality. Staff will review the expansion requests as part of the broader evaluation process of the candidate urban expansion areas shown on Maps 3a to 3e of the ROP. These areas are located between the existing Urban Area/Township Urban Area boundary and the Countryside Line. As set out in the ROP, any future urban expansions must be considered on lands within the Countryside Line. Where the Countryside Line coincides with the Protected Countryside designation in the ROP, the Countryside Line is to be considered a permanent boundary. Depending on the results of the land needs assessment, staff will assess the feasibility of any required urban expansions using an evaluation framework similar to one described above for the growth scenarios (see Attachment D for criteria). Staff will consult with the public, stakeholders, landowners and the area municipalities to determine the most appropriate locations for any required urban expansions. Background: Since the approval of the ROP in 2015, several significant changes have occurred in the 3679209 Page 4 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Province's land use planning policies, including an updated Growth Plan. Among other matters, the updated Growth Plan increased Waterloo Region's growth forecasts, and also extended the time horizon of the ROP from 2041 to 2051. The current ROP review will bring the ROP into conformity with the updated Growth Plan. It will also ensure the Region has a sufficient land supply to accommodate its forecasted growth. 5. Area Municipality Communication and Public/Stakeholder Engagement: Consultation and engagement with the various ROP Review Committees, including the Steering Committee, Stakeholder Committee, Technical Team and Area Municipal Working Group, as well as Indigenous engagement and public consultation is continuous throughout the project. Staff are planning to host a public webinar in late June to obtain additional feedback from the community on the preliminary growth scenarios and evaluation criteria. 6. Financial Implications: The ROP review will include a Financial Impact Analysis to provide Council with the estimated financial impacts of servicing any proposed urban area expansions. 7. Conclusion / Next Steps: Over the coming months, staff will continue consulting on the preliminary growth scenarios to identify a recommend preferred scenario. This work will provide a key input into the land needs assessment, which will be released later this summer. Depending on the outcome of the land needs assessment, staff will evaluate the candidate urban expansions areas identified in the ROP, and the site-specific expansion requests, to determine the most appropriate locations for growth. The evaluation process will include further engagement with the public and stakeholders over the summer and early fall, and culminate in a recommended draft ROP amendment anticipated later this year. Attachments / Links: Attachment A — Evaluation Criteria for Growth Scenarios Attachment B — List of Requests for Urban Expansion/Designation Received to Date Attachment C — Location Maps of Urban Expansion Requests Attachment D — Evaluation Criteria for Candidate Urban Expansion Areas Prepared By: John Lubczynski, Principal Planner Brenna MacKinnon, Manager, Development Planning Reviewed By: Michelle Sergi, Director, Community Planning Approved By: Rod Regier, Commissioner, Planning Development and Legislative Services 3679209 Page 5 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Attachment A Evaluation Criteria for Proposed Growth Scenarios Theme Objective Evaluation Criteria • Does the scenario allocate growth in a way that supports the long-term viability of the Planned Support Planned Regional Structure? Regional Structure . How well does the scenario support intensification within existing or planned new Strategic Growth Areas? • How well does the scenario support complete communities within the built-up area and in designated greenfield areas? Foster development of . How well does the scenario promote a more compact complete and built urban form? compact communities . How well does the scenario help to reduce the growth of greenhouse gas emissions through intensification, and support for a wider variety of built forms and land uses? a� • How well does the scenario support multi -modal access to the GRT transit network, and facilitate other sustainable and active modes of travel, such as 3 walking, cycling and travel with the use of mobility o aids, including motorized wheelchairs? Build a sustainable and • How well does the scenario support minimizing active vehicle miles traveled and the growth of greenhouse transportation gas emissions? system • How well does the scenario support a low emissions transportation system? • How well does the scenario support the existing and future expansion of the ION rapid transit network? • How well can the scenario adapt to unknowns/uncertainties such as shifts in Provide flexibility demographics, economic conditions, extreme weather events and advances in technology (e.g. transportation technology, work from home technology)? 3679209 Page 6 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 3679209 Page 7 of 31 Is there sufficient capacity in existing or planned U Optimize use of municipal infrastructure (e.g., roads, transit, water, C existing or wastewater, stormwater management) and public = U_ planned service facilities (e.g., hospitals, long-term care infrastructure and facilities, libraries and schools) to support the growth = cc public service scenario? facilities • How well does the scenario optimize the use of existing infrastructure and public service facilities? N How well does the scenario ensure that growth is Ensure cost financially viable over the long term through c effective/ optimization of existing regional and area municipal c financially infrastructure and public service facilities, and 0 viability minimization of long-term operations and maintenance costs? L Facilitate green How well does the scenario enable opportunities for N = infrastructure and energy, resource and water conservation, and reduce risks promotion of green infrastructure to support climate change mitigation and adaptation? • Does the scenario minimize the need for conversion of prime agricultural land and provide for continued investment in the agricultural food network? L • How well does the scenario help the agricultural system become more resilient to outside shocks, Protect prime such as extreme weather events destroying crops agricultural land elsewhere in the world? L How well does the scenario support local food a production, processing and distribution to decrease energy use and emissions by reducing the length of trips between farms, processing facilities, and grocery stores, or selling directly to homes and businesses? ca Protect mineral Does the proposed expansion area contain any aggregate deposits of mineral aggregate resources? resources and existing • Would development within the proposed expansion Q aggregate area preclude or hinder the expansion or continued operations use of any existing mineral aggregate operations? 3679209 Page 7 of 31 June 10, 2021 Attachment B Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Landowner and Area Municipal Requests for Urban Expansion/Designation (submitted to date) City of Cambridge # Address or Location Landowner or Applicant Nature of Request Size (ha.) 1 0 Old Mill Rd. Roger Roedding Request to be added to 3.0 3 2118 New Dundee Branthaven Homes Urban Area for residential 60.6 Rd. or employment land uses. 2 850, 1000, and 1010 Joseph Puopolo Request to be added to 41.9 4 Riverbank Dr. Schlegel Urban the Urban Area for 57.7 Southwest Kitchener Developments residential land uses. City of Kitchener # Address or Owner/Applicant Requested Land Use Size Location (ha.) 3 2118 New Dundee Branthaven Homes Request to be added to 60.6 Rd. the Urban Are for residential land uses. 4 236 Gehl Place, Schlegel Urban Request to be added to 57.7 Southwest Kitchener Developments the Urban Area for residential land uses. 5 271 Reidel Drive Grambrian Investments Request to be added to 23.0 the Urban Area for residential land uses. 6 Southwest Kitchener Activa Request to be added to 54.7 the Urban Area for residential land uses. 7 Southwest Kitchener Schlegel Urban Request to be added to 59.2 Developments the Urban Area for residential land uses. 8 SW of Bleams Rd. Mattamy Homes Request to be added to 12.6 and Fischer -Hallman the Urban Area for Rd. residential land uses. 3679209 Page 8 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Township of North Dumfries # Address or Owner/Applicant Requested Land Use Size 19 Location Jim Flynn Request to be added to (ha.) 9 1410 Wrigley Rd. Andy MacDonald Request to add land to the 14.2 Wrigley Rural Settlement 20 East side of Township of Wellesley Area for residential land 8.2 Wellesley uses. 10 2772 Greenfield Hardy Bromberg Request to be added to Ayr 52.1 Rd., Ayr for residential land uses. 11 Brant -Waterloo Rd. D. & K. Elliott Request to be added to Ayr 40.4 and Nith Rd., Ayr for residential land uses. 12 Brant -Waterloo Rd. 1054455 Ontario Ltd. Request to be added to Ayr 41.4 and Swan Rd., Ayr for residential land uses. 13 East side of Ayr Township of North Request to be added to Ayr 80.0 Dumfries for residential land uses. 14 West side of Silvestri Investments Ltd. Request to be added to Ayr 23.3 Branchton Rd. North for residential land uses. of East Boundary Rd. 15 Northumberland and Terry Ballantyne Request to be added to Ayr 20.7 Alps Rd. for employment land uses. 16 1203 Rick Elliott Request to be added to Ayr 9.2 Northumberland St., for employment land uses. Ayr 17 1591 Seema Gupta Request to redesignate the 41.6 Northumberland St. property for employment land uses. 18 Northumberland Township of North Request to be added to Ayr 90.8 Corridor Dumfries for employment land uses. Township of Wellesley # Address or Location Owner/Applicant Requested Land Use Size (ha.) 19 1309 Greenwood Jim Flynn Request to be added to 3.9 Hill Rd., Wellesley Village of Wellesley for residential land uses. 20 East side of Township of Wellesley Request to be added to 8.2 Wellesley Village of Wellesley for residential/commercial land uses. 3679209 Page 9 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 21 Part of 4200 Manser Todd Cressman Request to be added to the 0.1 29 Rd. Snyder's Rd. (Baden) GP Linwood Rural Settlement 116.1 Snyder's Rd. and Inc. Area for a new residential 1455 Nafziger Rd., Stremma Developments lot. 22 South of Township of Wellesley Request to be added as a 0.4 Wallenstein Stremma Developments lot addition to an existing (Baden Southeast) Inc. residential property in the Wallenstein Rural Settlement Area. 23 West side of Village Strohvest Ontario Inc. Request to be added to the 6.3 of Wellesley Village of Wellesley for residential land uses. 24 Hawkesville Township of Wellesley Request to be added to the 2.5 Hawkesville Rural Settlement Area for employment land uses. 25 Geddes St., Chervin Custom Request to be added to the 2.1 Hawkesville Woodworks Hawkesville Rural Settlement Area for employment land uses. 26 Linwood Township of Wellesley Request to be added to the 18.5 Linwood Rural Settlement Area for employment land uses. 27 Wellesley Township of Wellesley Request to be added to the 8.5 Wellesley Rural Employment Area for employment land uses. 28 Hawkesville Township of Wellesley Request to be added to the 23.8 Hawkesville Rural Settlement Area for employment land uses. Township of Wilmot # Address or Location Owner/Applicant Requested Land Use Size (ha.) 29 1056 & 1149 Snyder's Rd. (Baden) GP Request to be added to 116.1 Snyder's Rd. and Inc. Baden for residential land 1455 Nafziger Rd., Stremma Developments uses. Baden (Baden Southeast) Inc. Stremma Developments (Baden Southeast) Inc. 3679209 Page 10 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 30 1145 Christner Rd. Carey Homes Request to be added to 16.2 New Hamburg New Hamburg for (ha.) 34 165 Bloomingdale John Mesina residential land uses. 0.9 31 1265 & 1299 Cachet Development Request to be added to 59.9 Waterloo St., New Partners Inc. New Hamburg for 35 Hamburg Lion's Mane Ministry residential land uses. 13.7 32 Area between Township of Wilmot Request to be added to 109.6 Baden and New Baden for employment land 36 Hamburg Ken Leppard uses. 0.9 33 2320 Snyder's Road 809721 Ontario Ltd Employment Area 68.7 W land uses. Township of Woolwich # Address or Owner/Applicant Requested Land Use Size Location (ha.) 34 165 Bloomingdale John Mesina Request to be added to the 0.9 Rd. Urban Area for residential land uses. 35 1700 Kramp Rd. Lion's Mane Ministry Request to be added to the 13.7 Kunle Oluwojure Urban Area for residential land uses. 36 208 Bloomingdale Ken Leppard Request to be added to the 0.9 Rd. Urban Area for residential land uses. 37 44 St. Charles St. Karen Martin Request to be added to the 7.8 E., Maryhill Maryhill Rural Settlement Area for residential land uses. 38 52 Hawkesville 1604964 Ontario Ltd. Request to be added to St. 28.1 Rd. 650207 Ontario Ltd. Jacobs for residential land uses. 39 55 Spring St., St. Don Kenesky Request to be added to St. 5.9 Jacobs Jacobs for urban land uses. 40 6430 Line 86, Westgate Farms. Ltd. Request to be added to the 8.4 West Montrose West Montrose Rural Settlement Area for residential land uses. 41 Highway 7 and Thomasfield Homes Request to be added to the 15.2 Greenfield Rd Urban Area for residential land uses. 3679209 Page 11 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 42 Southeast corner 957859 Ontario Ltd/Forwell Request to be added to the 88.3 of Ottawa St. lands Urban Area (Breslau) for extension and the urban land uses. Grand River 43 Sunset Hills Cres., Sunset Hills Estates Corp. Request to be added to the 1.2 Maryhill Maryhill Rural Settlement Area for residential land uses. 44 2177 Lonsdale House of Walker Request the lands be 24.0 Rd., Breslau redesignated for employment uses as a potential lot addition to Conestoga Meat Packers. 45 East Elmira Township of Woolwich Request to be added to 89.9 Elmira for employment land uses. 46 South Elmira Township of Woolwich Request to be added to 72.9 Elmira for employment land uses. 47 St. Jacobs Township of Woolwich Request to be added to St. 2.1 Jacobs for employment land uses. 48 Fountain St & Township of Woolwich Request to be added to the 31.5 Woolwich St Urban Area for employment Breslau land uses. 49 285 Woolwich St. Anchor Properties Request to be added to the 7.8 S., Breslau Urban Area for employment land uses. 50 5185 Fountain St. Breadner Trailers Request to be added to the 3.3 N., Breslau Urban Area for employment land uses. 51 985-999 Bridge St. Cooks Lands Group Request to be added to the 43.3 W. Urban Area for employment land uses. 52 West of Fountain Breslau Properties Limited Request to be added to 27.4 St. at Dolman St. Urban Area for residential Extension, Breslau land uses. 53 Southwest of Breslau Properties Limited Request to be added to the 14.3 Fountain St. and Urban Area for residential Township Rd. 80 land uses. 3679209 Page 12 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 54 2000 Shantz 2716501 Ontario Inc. Request to be redesignated 6.7 Station Road for employment and commercial land uses. 55 5009 Crowsfoot Bill Southern Request to be added to the 1.2 Road. Crowsfoot Rural Settlement Area for residential land uses. 3679209 Page 13 of 31 June 10, 2021 Attachment C Southwest Kitchener Qa Report- PDL -CPL -21-29 City of Kitchener IMIMMINIRMI Urban Area Boundary Protected Countryside Southwest Kitchener Policy Area Urban Expansion Requests Built Up Area Y Rural Areas N Prime Agricultural Area Designated Greenfield Area 3679209 Page 14 of 31 - --- Legend • r - d Countryside Line -. o N Urban Area Boundary Protected Countryside Southwest Kitchener Policy Area Urban Expansion Requests Built Up Area Y Rural Areas N Prime Agricultural Area Designated Greenfield Area 3679209 Page 14 of 31 June 10, 2021 Breslau —Woolwich Township and North Cambridge Breslau 01 Report- PDL -CPL -21-29 Township of Woolwich Ftd Legend N e - Airport Countryside Line Urban Area Boundary StE 7�0, pttendaleRd Urban Expansion Requests Designated Greenfield Area ?� �banK b s� N Built Up Area ° Prime Agricultural Area Rural Areas 3679209 Page 15 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Elmira, St. Jacobs and Bridge Street West — Woolwich Township 3679209 Page 16 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Maryhill Rural Settlement Area — Woolwich Township Maryhill stiff �����8e Ma,yhiYV Rd n Nr o� �a Legend N = Rural Settlement Area Urban Expansion Requests Prime Agricultural Area 3679209 Page 17 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 West Montrose and Crowsfoot Corners Rural Settlement Areas — Woolwich Township West Montrose line B6 Township of Woolwich z G s Y m Y Legend N owsfoot Corner Countryside Line sa Rural Settlement Area ha Urban Expansion Requests Built Up Area Prime Agricultural Area 3679209 Page 18 of 31 June 10, 2021 0 Old Mill Road— City of Cambridge City of Kitchener N°mer � ats°n @l�tl Conestoga College Blvd N oUS,69a Rd Nf: F Report- PDL -CPL -21-29 Blair Rd 0 x. rn T m Township of North Dumfries 7 4- ¢OSevilVe �d 3679209 Page 19 of 31 June 10, 2021 Ayr - North Dumfries Township Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 40 Ayr �sr I ScottSt St ' Wrigley ?td i Legend N Countryside Line A Township Urban Area Boundary Protected Countryside Urban Expansion Requests Built Up Area - Rural Areas Prime Agricultural Area Designated Greenfield Area 3679209 Page 20 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 McQueen Shaver Boulevard - North Dumfries Township 3679209 Page 21 of 31 June 10, 2021 1591 Northumberland St. - North Dumfries Township Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 S �7 a Z m a ,Roseville R¢ Township of North Dumfries Gedar� 0y�¢d GBder CseeK Rd C r Legend N a � N 0 Urban Expansion Requests Designated Greenfield Area Built Up Area Prime Agricultural Area Q Hwy 401/Reg Rd 97 Employment Area 3679209 Page 22 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report- PDL -CPL -21-29 Wrigley Rural Settlement Area - North Dumfries Township - Wrigley 3679209 Page 23 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Village of Wellesley — Wellesley Township 3679209 Page 24 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Linwood and Hawkesville Rural Settlement Areas - Wellesley Township 3679209 Page 25 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Baden and New Hamburg — Wilmot Township 3679209 Page 26 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report- PDL -CPL -21-29 East Wilmot Township i}5Z Z y T. d' c N R � 'a City of Waterloo P��Q -- L7 r,¢ _ d7 3 �Q- o - m ria°da City of Kitchener s Ra` Snyder 01 or _ Core SSS/ Legend N Countryside Line Urban Area Boundary A ns 4P11ft Protected Countryside =-- Urban Expansion Requests - Built Up Area JIL Rural Areas Prime Agricultural Area Designated Greenfield Area 3679209 Page 27 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 Attachment D Evaluation Criteria for Candidate Urban Expansion Areas Theme Objective Evaluation Criteria Consider local development Are there any known cross -jurisdictional issues that may conditions impact the viability of the land to be developed? • Does the candidate expansion area represent logical Wise use and and orderly progression of growth? management of lands Would the timing of the proposed expansion adversely affect achievement of minimum density and intensification targets? E Is the anticipated density for the proposed expansion area transit -supportive? Would it support frequent transit M service and multi -modal access to the transit network? M � Sustainable Would the proposed expansion area support other 3 and active sustainable and active modes of travel, such as walking, L transportation cycling, and travel with the use of mobility aids, including system motorized wheelchairs? • Would it support minimized vehicle kilometres travelled and help reduce the growth of greenhouse gas emissions? • Can the expansion area function as a standalone Complete complete community or provide for the completion of an communities existing community including an appropriate mix of jobs, stores, services, housing, transportation options, and public service facilities for all ages and abilities? • Is there sufficient capacity in existing or planned o = Optimize use of municipal infrastructure (including road, transit, water 'U existing or and wastewater) and public service facilities to a planned accommodate the expansion area? N LL infrastructure ,� and public • Is there opportunity to effectively expand on existing and S service facilities planned infrastructure established through approved master plans and related studies? 3679209 Page 28 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 3679209 Page 29 of 31 • Would the water/ wastewater/ transportation infrastructure needed be financially viable over the full life cycle of the assets? Cost effective/ financially . What are the order of magnitude costs associated with viable servicing the settlement expansion area? • Are the public service facilities needed financially viable over the full life cycle of the assets? Facilitate green infrastructure * Would expansion enable opportunities for energy, and reduce resource and water conservation and promotion of risks green infrastructure to support climate change mitigation and adaptation? • Where prime agricultural areas cannot be avoided, does the proposed expansion area contain lower priority Protect prime agricultural lands? agricultural . Would the proposed expansion area impact the areas resiliency of the agricultural system to outside shocks, such as extreme weather events destroying crops elsewhere in the world? Minimize . Is fragmentation of prime agricultural lands avoided/ fragmentation minimized; and, are contiguous agricultural lands retained? Compliance o with minimum . Are there existing livestock operations in proximity to the distance candidate area? Does the proposed expansion area a separation comply with the minimum distance separation formulae? formulae 5 Minimize • Does the candidate expansion area avoid/ minimize/ a� a� impact on the mitigate any adverse impacts on the agri-food network, Q Q agri-food including agricultural operations? network including . Would the proposed expansion area negatively impact agricultural local food production, processing and distribution by operations increasing the length of trips (and greenhouse gas emissions) between farms, processing facilities, and grocery stores? • Does the proposed expansion area contain any deposits Protect mineral of mineral aggregate resources? aggregate . Would development within the proposed expansion area resources preclude or hinder the expansion or continued use of any existing mineral aggregate o erations? 3679209 Page 29 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 3679209 Page 30 of 31 • Would the proposed expansion area minimize any potential impacts on watershed conditions and the water resource system? m • What is the potential for impacts on key hydrologic 0Enhance/ U) asupport areas? Are key hydrologic areas protected? m Natural Does the expansion area avoid and protect the Natural 4.0Heritage Heritage System and/or maintain, restore or improve the p aSystem functions of the area? L L = a Does the proposed expansion area support nature - based solutions to climate change mitigation and adaptation (e.g., prevent flooding, provide shade, and Z sequester carbon)? Source water Would the proposed expansion area meet any protection applicable requirements of the Region's source protection plan? Improve Will the proposed expansion area be served by and linkages and connected to/ integrated with an existing or planned increase travel transportation network (e.g. roads, rail, transit corridors choices and bike lanes and multi -use trails) to increase travel choices? • How well does the proposed expansion area provide Support opportunities to align with the target housing demand housing choice and market pressures for the Region? and affordability How well does the potential expansion area support the housing affordability objectives and targets of the Region? c�a • Would the proposed expansion area affect any significant built heritage resources or significant cultural Support/ heritage landscapes? protect culture • What is the archaeological potential of the candidate expansion area? • Would the proposed expansion area provide residents Access and easy access and connectivity to food, shelter, education, connectivity health care, arts and recreation, and information technology? Provide open • Would the proposed expansion area be integrated with space and existing, or planned open spaces, parks, trails, and other parks recreational facilities? 3679209 Page 30 of 31 June 10, 2021 Report: PDL -CPL -21-29 3679209 Page 31 of 31 • Can emergency services be efficiently delivered to the settlement expansion area? Support public ' Would the proposed expansion area contribute to a health, active pattern of development that supports healthy and active living, and living and mitigates public health risks? personal safety • Would the proposed expansion area help to minimize the health effects of climate change, such as illnesses related to extreme cold or heat events, or increased exposure to air pollution? • Is there potential for the candidate area to erode or enhance protection of existing employment areas, corridors, rail corridors and transit? • Would the proposed expansion area protect or enhance employment areas in proximity to major goods Protect or movement facilities and corridors for employment uses 3 o enhance that require those locations? employment areas, highway Would the proposed expansion area help provide corridors, rail sufficient land, in appropriate locations, to accommodate o o corridors and the Region's Io growth? gions em p yment U LU transit Would the proposed expansion area help strengthen the economic diversity of the region? • Would the proposed expansion area support a better balance of jobs and housing in communities across the region to reduce the need for long distance commuting and greenhouse gas emissions? 3679209 Page 31 of 31