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HomeMy WebLinkAboutDSD-2022-281 - Growth Related Funding Tools - Cumulative Impact Assessment Development Services Department www.kitchener.ca REPORT TO: Community and Infrastructure Services Committee DATE OF MEETING: June 8, 2022 SUBMITTED BY: Rosa Bustamante, Director of Planning, 519-741-2200 ext. 7319 PREPARED BY: Tim Donegani, Senior Planner, 519-741-2200 ext. 7067 WARD(S) INVOLVED: ALL DATE OF REPORT: May 27, 2022 REPORT NO.: DSD-2022-281 SUBJECT: Growth Related Funding Tools Cumulative Impact Assessment RECOMMENDATION: That Report DSD-2022-281 regarding Growth Related Funding Tools Cumulative Impact Assessment, be received. REPORT HIGHLIGHTS: The purpose of this report is to present Council with the findings of the Cumulative Impact Assessment prepared by N. Barry Lyon Consultants (NBLC) to inform Coun consideration of new or updated Development Charges, Park Dedication, Community Benefits Charges, and Inclusionary Zoning. Key findings: o The NBLC report found that the funding tools in totality generally result in manageable impacts to proformas in the strong Downtown residential market, with more significant impacts on high-rise development in other locations in Kitchener. o The tools impact high rise and rental projects most significantly. o A transition period for new fees or policies is critical to mitigating impacts. o The recommended Development Charges and Parkland Dedication by-laws incorporate recommendations to mitigate impact on development proformas, risks to housing supply and associated upward pressure on housing prices. o In developing these tools, staff have sought to mitigate impacts on development proformas while providing for the infrastructure, parks and city services required to support vibrant complete communities. Staff engaged members of the development industry in preparing this report This report supports the delivery of core services. *** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. *** Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance. BACKGROUND: The City is in the process of developing new or updated fees that support growth. Development Charges (DCs), Community Benefits Charges (CBCs), ParkDedication and Inclusionary Zoning (IZ) are all being considered in the next two years and have the possibility of impacting development trends and housing affordability. A new Development Charges By-law was considered by Council on May 30, 2022. Committee of Council will consider and discuss component of Places and Spaces, a new parks and open space strategy for Kitchener together with a new Park Dedication By-law on June 8. Consideration of CBCs and IZ are in progress with updates to Council anticipated in 2023. To better understand the financial implications of the above-mentioned fees on development proformas, the City retained N. Barry Lyon Consultants (NBLC) Land Economists to analyse their cumulative impacts. REPORT: The NBLC report (Attachment A) uses an industry standard residual land value (RLV) approach to test likely impacts of fee and policy combinations on a set of prototypical proformas that vary in location and housing form. This approach and methodology includes the following important characteristics: The costs of increased fees cannot easily be passed onto residents through higher prices because developers are already pricing units as high as the market will bear. The model used in the analysis assumes that developer profits cannot be compressed. Without sufficient profit, developers will not be motivated to build, and banks will not provide financing. Based on the above, it is concluded that increased fees and charges will put downward pressure on land value. If land value is compressed too much, a residential redevelopment project cannot displace the existing land use and will not proceed. Reducing housing supply can put upward pressure on housing prices. This analysis does not capture all possible developer motivations. Long-term landowners or those that self-finance may continue to develop despite challenges to the prototypical proformas. Key findings of the report are: The proposed DC rates will have a relatively small impact on project viability. Although the City has yet to determine if it will implement CBCs, a 4% of land value charge (the maximum permitted in legislation) would have relatively small impacts on project viability. Generally, high-rise apartments, rental projects, and areas outside of Downtown are expected to be most impacted by the proposed fees. The overall impact of the proposed Park Dedication By-Law could potentially push down land values by 11% in the Downtown example and 35% in central neighbourhoods. Impacts would be much more significant without the proposed $11,862 per unit cap. This fee increase is a one-time adjustment to address a 12- year park dedication value stagnation. An example Inclusionary Zoning policy that requires 5% of units to be affordable could further depress land values by 16% at the Downtown test site and by half in central neighbourhoods. The cumulative impacts of all new policies could impactland values by 25%-90% depending on location and built form. A transition period to the new fee/policy regime is crucialto mitigating impacts to project viability. Fees should be tailored to support higher density development in weaker market areas. Park dedication impacts could be mitigated through site specific appraisals, area- specific rates, on and offsite land dedication, and a graduated park dedication cap. The impact of inclusionary zoning could be mitigated through reduced affordability requirements in weaker markets and offsets such as increases in height and density permissions, reduced parking requirements, fee waivers and/or grants. All fees and policies should be reviewed regularly to respond to market conditions. Staff have reviewed and considered the NBLC report and provide the following additional : The proposed DC by-law shapes incentives to help support development in Central Neighbourhoods. The current draft Park Dedication By-Law responds to the recommendations by: o Capping CIL of park dedication at a maximum of $11,862 per unit o Providing a transition for existing development applications o Providing for on and offsite land dedication and site specific appraisals Reductions for rental buildings, and area-specific rates are not included in the draft by-law (due to limited comparable data for high density sites outside Downtown) Inclusionary Zoning (IZ) will have the greatest impact on proformas and will be the last tool to be introduced, which will potentially be challenging to implement in all areas except for Downtown in the short and medium term. However, it should be noted that the City of Kitchener has used other policy support tools to advance supportive and affordable housing in these areas. Kitchener should have reasonable expectations regarding the amount of affordable units that IZ can deliver. Continued investment by all levels of government in affordable housing is required to achieve broad affordable housing objectives. Many potential offsets to achieve IZ in weaker markets either have financial implications to the tax base, or may not have significant value for developers. The potential implications of new and updated growth-related fees on development, including in Major Transit Station Areas east of Downtown, will be closely monitored to understand whether additional mitigation measures are needed. Any mitigation measures may require future Council direction. At this time it is unclear if impacts forecasted will materialize and whether further mitigation measures are warranted. Concerns remain with the premise that increased fees will put downward pressure on land rather than upward pressure on unit prices and rents. The NBLC report uses theoretical projects, based on prototypes, and the results are very sensitive to a set of assumptions. It is therefore not a good predictor of actual land transaction prices. It does however remain a valuable way to evaluate the potential impact of new fees and policies. The residual land values in the report are higher than observed actual transactions and listings. This would imply a greater capacity for the development industry to absorb additional fees than suggested by the NBLC report, especially Downtown. There is less certainty regarding valuation of high-density development outside of Downtown with limited comparable data to rely on. Conclusion Increasing hard costs and the potential for a slow down in unit production or decrease in unit prices are expected to put pressure on development proformas in the near term. While comparable with other municipalities, t and medium density development, particularly outside of the Downtown market. This requires a balanced consideration of DCs, CBCs, Cash-in-lieu of Parkland and IZ on one hand, and development viability and the resultant housing supply and overall affordability on the other. Higher taxes could provide some relief by shifting costs from developers to the existing tax base and would go against the principle of growth paying for growth. The proposed Park Dedication and Development Charges By-Laws have incorporated many of the NBLC recommendations to mitigate impacts on developer proformas, while providing services, infrastructure and parkland needed for thriving and complete communities. Market realities will challenge the ability to achieve a significant number of affordable units through Inclusionary Zoning in the medium term, especially outside of the Downtown. STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT: This report supports the delivery of core services. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: There are no financial implications to this report. This report has been used to inform the development of DC and, Park Dedication By-laws and will be used to inform any Community Benefits Charges and IZ program in the future. COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT: INFORM the Council / Committee meeting. CONSULT - Staff and NBLC presented the report findings to the Waterloo Region developments in May 2022. Key comments from these groups are: A transition period to the new fee regime is critical. The vast majority of developers said that increased fees would be passed onto consumers in the form of higher unit prices and rents. Medium density development will be further challenged by the proposed fees. Profits cannot be compressed. As such, any fee increase may be passed on, in whole or in part to purchasers/renters. Developers may respond by delaying projects, building smaller units in taller buildings and/or seek lower architectural design. The housing market has weakened in the last 30 days making the introduction of fees more challenging, More details of these meetings are included in Attachment B. PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES: There are no previous reports/authorities related to this matter REVIEWED BY: Brian Bennett, Manager of Business Development Danielle Sbeiti, Manager of Realty Services Mark Parris, Landscape Architect, Parks & Cemeteries Natalie Goss, Manager, Policy and Research Niall Lobley, Director of Parks and Cemeteries Ryan Hagey, Director of Financial Planning and Reporting APPROVED BY: Justin Readman, General Manager Development Services ATTACHMENTS: Attachment A NBLC Report - Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts (May 2022) Attachment B Development industry feedback on NBLC report tƩƚƦƚƭĻķ aǒƓźĭźƦğƌ /ŷğƩŭĻƭ ğƓķ CĻĻƭ ŅƚƩ wĻƭźķĻƓƷźğƌ 5ĻǝĻƌƚƦƒĻƓƷ 9ǝğƌǒğƷźƚƓ ƚŅ tƚƷĻƓƷźğƌ LƒƦğĭƷƭ /źƷǤ ƚŅ YźƷĭŷĻƓĻƩ ağǤ ЋЉЋЋ City of Kitchener Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts The conclusions contained in this report have been prepared based on both primary Table of Contents and secondary data sources. NBLC makes every effort to ensure the data is correct but cannot guarantee its accuracy. It is also important to note that it is not possible to fully document all factors or account for all changes that may occur in the future Executive Summary ................................................................................... i and influence the viability of any development. NBLC, therefore, assumes no 1.0 Introduction ...................................................................................... 1 responsibility for losses sustained as a result of implementing any recommendation provided in this report. 2.0 Residential Market Context .............................................................. 2 3.0 Land Economics Approach .............................................................. 9 This report has been prepared solely for the purposes outlined herein and is not to be relied upon, or used for any other purposes, or by any other party without the prior 4.0 Methodology................................................................................... 12 written authorization from N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited. 5.0 Impacts on High-Density Residential Development....................... 20 6.0 Conclusions .................................................................................... 31 7.0 Appendix A Model Inputs ........................................................... 32 8.0 Appendix B Impact Analysis Model Results ............................... 34 Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts i City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Executive Summary N. Barry Lyon Consultants has been retained by the City of Kitchener to unintended consequences affecting a range of municipal policy objectives undertake an evaluation of impacts from potential policy changes that have and broader housing affordability. For some developers who already own the potential to influence the financial viability of new residential land, severe impacts could make their projects infeasible in the near term. development in the City. The policies considered in this analysis include: Our approach in this study examines this relationship between policies A new Community Benefits Charge (CBC) equivalent to four percent which increase the cost of development or reduce project revenue (in the of land value, replacing the negotiated process commonly referred to case of IZ) and the residual land value supported by a residential as a ; development. The modelling seeks to evaluate how much land values would be impacted, and at which point the incentive to redevelop land New City of Kitchener Development Charge rates (Region of Waterloo might be discouraged. Development Charges remain unchanged); To do this, we examine ten prototypical developments across the City. We A Cash-in-Lieu of parkland dedication policy (CIL) which has been model these test sites under various policy scenarios to estimate the updated to reflect a new city-wide appraisal of development land maximum price a developer could pay for land (referred to as the residual values and includes a capped payment for high-density built forms; land value) if they are to achieve an acceptable profit. These land values and, are then compared to the value of competitive land uses in each market A mandatory Inclusionary Zoning (IZ) policy which would require location (e.g., retail, office, low-density housing, etc.). Where the policy that five percent of development floor area be sold or rented at below scenario supports a land value near or below that of the existing uses, we market rates. can conclude that the motivation to redevelop the site is diminished and the proposed fees and charges would adversely impact reinvestment for Key to the methodology used in this work is the understanding that housing residential uses. prices are established by the characteristics of supply and demand, with developers charging what the market is willing and able to pay. If the cost We also consider the interim impacts of potential fee increases reviewing of producing a housing unit increases, developers cannot simply increase the dynamics of recently launched development projects and considering pricing if buyers are unwilling or unable to pay a higher price. Instead, the special impacts that both purchasers and developers may face in developers will discount the price they are willing to pay to acquire land adjusting to the cost increase while moving through the development as a means of compensating for these increased costs. process. However, if residential land values are depressed too much, the supply of available residential land could be impacted. This could bring about Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts i City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 The following are our central findings in this analysis: impact through the conveyance of land (either on-site or off-site), or the use of site-specific appraisals reflect local market nuance. The proposed development charge rates are unlikely to have a The impact of the proposed Inclusionary Zoning policy is expected to meaningful impact on the feasibility of development because the be more significant in areas of weaker demand given theses areas proposed rate increase is very small. The proposed rates would add support lower residual land values that are more easily eroded by the between $1,307 to $1,917 per unit, representing less than a one percent loss of revenue that the IZ policy creates. In the Downtown High Rise increase to the average cost of an apartment unit as tested in this test site, we see residual land values eroded by about 16%, while the analysis. impact at the Central Neighbourhood test site would be in the order of The proposed CBC would have a slightly greater but still relatively 50%. insignificant impact on development viability. In the strongest market The Inclusionary Zoning policy approach tested in this analysis creates locations, our testing indicates that the charge would equate to $3,600 relatively blunt impacts to land value because it does not include a per unit. However, the charge would be much smaller in weaker market nuanced implementation strategy with offsetting measures. So. areas as they support lower land values. Should the City seek to developers who have not yet acquired land would need to reduce their standardize the rate on a per unit basis by market area or product type, bid price for land if they are to maintain their risk adjusted return. the City should consider the cumulative impact of other policies on However, it is not clear whether landowners will adjust their asking land values when setting the rate to ensure it is appropriately calibrated, price in the near term to accommodate this policy. Further, developers lest developers may appeal the charge and create an administrative who have already purchased land will seek to entitle their properties in burden and unnecessary cost for the City. advance of the policy to circumvent it. In either case the testing The proposed CIL of parkland rates reflect a new city-wide appraisal highlights potential issues with the effectiveness of a blunt policy and of development land values. These land values are significantly greater highlights the need for offsetting measures to mitigate against than those used in the current policy and so the proposed policy unintended consequences. includes a per unit cap of $12,000 to attenuate some of this added cost While the impacts of individual policies range from inconsequential to burden. If not for the cap the viability of high-density development significant, various combinations of the above policies will invariably forms would be significantly impacted. We find that with the cap magnify the financial impact of these tools. The cumulative impact of applied, the policy would erode residual land values by 11% to 35% in the policies considered will be most acute for high-density projects in the Downtown and Central Neighbourhood High Rise Residential test weaker market areas. In this analysis, we consider the Downtown sites respectively, with greater impacts on high density test cases within market area to have the most demand and subsequently highest pricing weaker submarkets. However, the development context in these for condominium apartments. This pricing equates to higher residual weaker submarkets and other provisions in the design of the policy land values which provide some buffer against new development costs. suggest developers will have greater opportunity to alleviate this Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts ii City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 However, the weaker market areas where we tested high-density policies in a manner that helps encourage rental housing if that is a apartments Central Neighbourhood, Fairway MTSA, and Southwest policy priority. Kitchener do not support prices which drive high land values. To the Overall, the pressure to increase the municipal fees facing new residential extent that the policies add costs or reduce revenues, and are not development projects comes at a time when the industry is also facing accompanied by offsetting measures, there is less buffer before a significant increases in hard construction costs. In addition, rising interest developer can no longer compete to acquire land, or before the project rates and inflationary pressures have the potential to undermine demand is made financially unviable. This market nuance suggests that the City and pricing. The testing in this analysis illustrates that the cumulative should take the latitude afforded to it in legislation to design the IZ, impact of the proposed municipal fees has the potential to dampen CBC, and CIL of parkland policies to mitigate the adverse impacts that development interest in high-density residential development across the one-size-fits-all policies can have on diverse submarkets. City. The effects, however, will vary depending on the market and specific Throughout this study, we assume that developers are more likely to land economics associated with a particular site. For these reasons, the deliver ownership housing as it provides greater financial returns than municipality should consider approaches to mitigate the significant rental, at least with a forward-looking perspective and the investment impacts that these policy changes might have. This could include a phase- horizon considered herein. We have however prepared one iteration of in period that could adjust to reflect economic conditions, such as interest the model under rental tenure to illustrate how the policies can impact rates, as well as offsetting measures for inclusionary zoning. the economics of this tenure. Using the strongest market location with the highest achievable rents, we find that the base case scenario would be challenged financially from an income capitalization approach before new policies are applied. Subsequent scenarios where we add the cost of new policies serve only to worsen the results. These results reflect the challenging dynamics facing the delivery of purpose-built rental housing. In simple terms, the achievable revenue for ownership housing exceeds that of rental. The City could consider structuring new Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts iii City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 1.0 Introduction The purpose of this study is to examine the possible impacts that these esidential development that policy changes and fee increases could have on high-density residential may result from a range of proposed policy changes and fee increases that development. We address these issues by evaluating how the policy are currently under consideration. changes and fee increases would impact the feasibility of ten prototypical high-density residential developments throughout various submarkets in The City is currently in the process updating its Development Charges Kitchener. Through an understanding of the subtleties between various (DCs) in accordance with recent changes made to the enabling legislation. markets in the city, as well as an understanding of the economics of Concurrently, the City is evaluating the introduction of a Community development, we examine how these changes could impact project -in-Lieu of Parkland viability not just at the ten representative test sites, but across the broader -law, also following recent changes to provincial Kitchener marketplace. legislation. Each of these initiatives are intended to support an increase in municipal revenue to support infrastructure investments, but they also represent an increase to the production costs of housing. The City of Kitchener, in conjunction with the Region of Waterloo, is also considering an Inclusionary Zoning by-law which would similarly impact the production cost of housing, albeit through a loss of development revenue. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 1 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 2.0 Residential Market Context The following section provides a review of Kitchener approximately 23,700 persons between 2016 and 2021, compared to only context, focusing specifically on the high-density market. This 14,100 persons during the previous five-year period. commentary has been informed by Statistics Canada and CMHC data. Driving this accelerating population growth has been an increased number NBLC has also completed primary surveys of the new high-rise of new immigrants settling in KCW, with this level having almost tripled marketplace and the resale condominium apartment marketplace. The full in the past five years (Figure 1). Increased federal immigration targets will results from these surveys have been attached in the Appendix. only further bolster the level of growth due to immigration in the coming years for Kitchener. Similarly, non-permanent residents (e.g., international Population Growth Driving Residential Demand students) Key to steady the past five years, and while this component of population growth population growth over the past decade. Between 2011 and 2021, the City declined dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic, this trend is of Kitchener grew by 17% (+37,732 persons) accounting for nearly half expected to be entirely temporary as many parts of the world emerge from 1 (47%) of the net population growth in KCW. pandemic-induced travel restrictions. pace of population growth has accelerated in recent years, adding Table 1 Population Growth by Municipality Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA, 2011 to 2021 1 Year Kitchener Waterloo Cambridge Rural Municipalities CMA 2011 219,153 98,780 126,748 51,702 496,383 2016 233,222 104,986 129,920 55,766 523,894 2021 256,885 121,436 138,479 59,047 575,847 Total Growth (2011 to 2021) 37,732 22,656 11,731 7,345 79,464 % Growth (2011 to 2021) 17% 23% 9% 14% 16% Share of Growth (2011 to 2021) 47% 29% 15% 9% 100% 1=Consists of Wilmot, Woolwich, and North Dumfries Township Source: Statistics Canada 1 KCW consists of the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Census Metropolitan Area as defined by Statistics Canada Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 2 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 1 Components of Population Change, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Source: Statistics Canada Affordability Underpins Growth in High-Density Demand Like much of southwestern Ontario, Kitchener has seen a surge in low-rise As local incomes have grown at a much more modest pace, this low-rise pricing in recent years as new home supply has not been able to keep pace pricing growth has shifted residential demand towards more affordable with the growing demand. The average absorbed price of a new housing typologies, specifically apartments. Over the past five years, single/semi-detached home in Kitchener reached $792,700 in 2021, up apartment units have accounted for otal housing 68% from just five years earlier. Our research suggests that this price has starts. This contrasts with the previous five years where apartments only only continued to escalate in 2022, with the average price for an available accounted for 43% of total housing starts and in even more stark contrast single/semi-detached home reaching approximately $940,000 as of March to 2001 to 2011 when apartments only accounted for 17% of total housing 2 2022. starts. 2 Altus Data Studio Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 3 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 2 Average Absorbed Single/Semi-Detached Price, Kitchener Rental Demand Continues to Grow In recent years, the City of Kitchener has seen a surge in rental housing demand driven by two key factors: Deteriorating affordability of ownership housing; and, -secondary institutions, specifically international student enrolment. Owing to this growth in demand, there has been a surge in rental apartment development. Over the past five years, there has been an average of 519 rental apartment starts in Kitchener annually. This is up 65% from the previous five-year period. Even more, this is triple the average annual rate from a decade ago. This development has been scattered throughout the City, although the largest concentration is located in Kitchener-Central and Source: CMHC Kitchener South-East which respectively account for 36% and 28% of the Figure 3 Average Annual Apartment Starts by Tenure, City of Kitchener Notwithstanding the above-noted increase, this supply of new purpose- built rental apartment units has still been inadequate to meet the growing level of rental housing demand. Instead, condominium apartments units purchased by investors have become an important rental apartment product in KCW. As of October 2021, CMHC reported that 33% of condominium apartment units in KCW were being used as rental units on the secondary rental market, up from just 23% six years earlier. Moreover, Table 2 shows that the supply of condominium rental units has seen larger net growth over the past six years than owner-occupied condominium units. This aligns with trends from recent condominium project launches in KCW, where investors make up an ever-increasing share of purchasers. Source: CMHC Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 4 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Table 2 March 2022, had an average opening index price of $1,163 psf. This was Condominium Apartments by Use the first project in the region to surpass the $1,000 psf threshold. The KCW, 2015 to 2021 significantly higher pricing appears to be aligned to market demand as this Condominium Units % of Units as project sold 455 units in its first month of sales alone. Year Rental Rental Non-Rental 2015 2,053 6,772 23% This pricing appreciation is also evident in the resale apartment market, as 2016 2,599 6,964 27% shown in Table 3. Over the past year alone, resale pricing has increased 2017 3,092 7,108 30% between 25% and 36%, depending on the submarket. Given prevailing 2018 3,101 7,481 29% market conditions, this growth is not at all surprising and we expect pricing 2019 3,610 8,453 30% levels to continue to appreciate over the short-term, although at a more 2020 3,902 8,456 32% 2021 4,372 8,947 33% modest pace than what has occurred in the past year. Total Increase: 2,319 2,175 - Table 3 Avg. Annual: 387 363 - Benchmark Apartment Resale Pricing Source: CMHC KCW, 2012 to 2022 Finally, these rental market conditions have led to higher market rents Kitchener Kitchener Waterloo Waterloo Date East West East West across the entire KCW region. Over the past five years, average CMHC March 2012 $156,200 $151,200 $190,600 $207,300 rents in new purpose-built rental apartments (i.e., buildings completed March 2013 $162,800 $158,100 $203,400 $221,800 from 2000 onward) have increased by 5.4% annually across the entire March 2014 $149,900 $149,100 $195,900 $220,700 March 2015 $173,900 $169,600 $214,300 $226,400 region. Additionally, average rents in privately leased condominium March 2016 $176,000 $171,000 $216,900 $239,500 apartment units have increased by 8.3% annually. This growth is likely to March 2017 $204,400 $201,200 $241,200 $265,200 continue given the prevailing rental market trends in the region (i.e., March 2018 $238,500 $236,600 $276,900 $310,500 surging rental demand and limited supply). March 2019 $256,400 $264,900 $296,600 $341,400 March 2020 $331,000 $331,000 $335,300 $356,200 March 2021 $357,700 $394,900 $378,100 $400,100 Condominium Apartment Pricing Has Seen Substantial Growth March 2022 $487,800 $531,800 $515,000 $501,000 With residential demand shifting towards high-density housing, 1-Year 36% 35% 36% 25% Growth condominium apartment pricing in KCW has grown over the past five 3-Year 90% 101% 74% 47% years. As shown in Figure 4, new high-rise pricing growth remained Growth modest until about 2020, at which time it began to record sizable gains. Source: Kitchener-Waterloo Realtors Association Most notably, TEK Towers, which opened in Downtown Kitchener in Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 5 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 4 Average Opening High-Rise Index Price by Opening Date, KCW (Bubble size represents the number of units) Source: Altus Data Studio Table 4 Land Values Have Also Seen Sizable Pricing Growth High-Density Residential Land Sales With increased demand and pricing, high-density residential land values KCW, 2016 to 2021 Price per Unit have also increased significantly in recent years. Table 4 provides Year Transactions Buildable summary data regarding high-density residential land sales from KCW. 2016 21 $16,600 On a per unit basis, land values over the past two years are up significantly 2017 31 $11,800 from previous years, reaching approximately $30,000 per unit. As recently 2018 26 $12,800 2019 26 $16,100 as 2019, land sales were transacting for approximately $16,000. As project 2020 21 $34,200 statistics can change throughout the pre-development stage of a project, 2021 42 $29,600 this data should be considered order-of-magnitude and primarily reflective Note: Price per unit buildable is based only on those transactions with an associated of broader trends in the land market. development application. Non-market sales have been excluded Source: Altus Data Studio Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 6 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Construction Costs Are Escalating Rapidly Disruptions to global supply chains and a shortage of skilled labour have both impacted residential Figure 5 High-Density Residential Construction Cost Growth, GTA construction costs, causing significant levels of inflation. While accurate time-series construction cost data is not readily available specifically for the KCW marketplace, it is our understanding that costing trends have largely followed those seen in the Greater Toronto Area for the GTA shows that between Q1-2020 and Q4-2022, residential construction costs increased by 22% for high-rise apartments (five-or-more storeys) and by 38% for low-rise apartments (less than five-storeys). Moreover, much of this growth has come in the past year alone +18% and +28%, respectively. Before this period of rapid escalation, construction costs typically were more modest, growing by about 3% to 5% annually. Source: Statistics Canada Building Construction Price Index Historically, developers have been able to absorb increased construction costs as pricing was growing at a more substantial margin. However, given the recent pace of construction cost escalation, this buffer may be eroding. If this trend continues, it could put significant pressure on the development industry, substantially for error. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 7 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 6 BoC Target Overnight Rate Threats on the Horizon Since 2001, the KCW housing market has experienced a sustained period of price growth. Driven largely by low interest rates, strong immigration and municipal investment in public infrastructure, the City has become an appealing destination in which to both live and work. However, the pace of cost inflation has been substantial since the beginning of the pandemic. As supply chain interference has impacted the availability and price of most consumer goods, it has also increased the cost of construction and access to skilled labour. These costs have risen dramatically over the past 24 months, as noted above, and are predicted to continue throughout 2022 and possibly beyond. At the same time, the Bank of Canada has recently increased its benchmark Source: Bank of Canada interest rate and has signalled its intention to raise this rate several more times throughout 2022, should inflation not subside. This should drive These forecasted construction cost increases combined with increasing commercial lending rates higher which will in turn increase construction cost of borrowing could conspire to erode the feasibility of development financing costs. Additionally, a higher cost of borrowing is very likely to in some areas of the City due to a limited ability for housing prices to offset mean new limits on consumer access to money, affecting demand and rising development costs. the ability for developers to increase residential pricing in in the future. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 8 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Therefore it is common practice for developers and landowners to seek an 3.0 Land Economics Approach opinion with respect to the quality of the soil (and other matters throughout due diligence) prior to purchasing land. If there is evidence of a It is a common misconception that the cost of constructing new housing soil/environmental issue, the developer will discount the value of the determines the price at which that housing can be sold and that any new or parcel by the cost of remedying the problem. The same principle applies increased costs including those incurred due to government policies to development fees. A purchaser would not pay more for a home simply because costs have increased. Rather, the development industry evaluates rates. Though interrelated, the market dynamics which determine the cost conditions of competitive supply and demand to set sales pricing. of construction, and the sale price of housing is far more nuanced and complex. This understanding informs the approach in which impacts are An exception to this is where a developer has already presold units but has measured in this analysis. not obtained building permits prior to development fees being increased. In these situations (subject to purchase and sale terms) the burden of the Pricing is Driven by Market Supply / Demand increased fees (or a portion of them) can be incurred by the homebuyer, in In an efficient market with strong competition, developers and/or landowners will charge purchasers or renters the maximum price that the a common approach to be market will bear at any given time. Competitive markets establish pricing discussed later in this report the increase in fees is shared with the by the characteristics of supply and demand, underpinned by the principle developer. Where some or all of this cost increase is absorbed by the This price is irrespective of the production developer, it would erode the developer's profit margin. cost of housing. In any real estate market, it is demand from consumers Increased Housing Production Costs Primarily Impact Land Value relative to the supply of housing which determines the price of housing. Understanding that market pricing is largely set independently from costs, For example, if two identical high-density projects were situated adjacent developers must seek to transfer any increase in costs elsewhere. to one another, buyers would view these homes as substitutes. In this Developers are unlikely to accept reduced profit expectations as they are situation, buyers would value both projects equally and pricing would be investing their skill and equity with the expectation of a return. In a comparable at each project. However, if one of these projects was situated competitive market, developers must compete for land, capital, labour, and on a parcel of land that required expensive environmental remediation, the purchasers or renters. The effect of this competition is to place downward developer could not increase sale prices equivalent to the cost of pressure on profit margins to the minimum amount feasible, lest the remediation, as buyers would simply choose the identical and lower priced developer will be outbid for these scarce resources. The minimum risk project adjacent to it. To the buyer, there is no added value to justify adjusted return is set in large part by global capital markets and is largely additional costs for a similar quality unit and the developer could not beyond the control of any individual developer. If an acceptable profit charge more for the unit. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 9 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 7 The Impact of Increased Development Fees on Land Values level can not be achieved, developers and financiers will choose to invest their capital elsewhere, be that a real estate development in another community or another investment vehicle altogether. In a market that shows steady demand and pricing growth, such as KCW, it is possible that increased costs can be offset by price appreciation without impacting the viability of new development. However, in more stable markets, with return expectations and costs relatively fixed, the impact of any cost increase is largely compensated for with a reduction in land value. Figure 7 illustrates this, showing that if the total project revenue remains stable (as set by supply and demand conditions), any increase in soft costs (i.e. development fees) must be compensated for by margin are both considered fixed. Figure 8 The Impact of Inclusionary Zoning on Land Values Inclusionary Zoning Impacts Land Values Like increased development costs, inclusionary zoning also impacts land values, although the mechanism is slightly different. Inclusionary zoning is not a direct cost of development, as it is not an additional fee imposed on a project. Instead, revenue as a set number of units are no longer able to be priced at full market value. Meanwhile, the hard and soft costs associated with the pectations. In this scenario, where the costs and profit expectations remain fixed, land values must be reduced in order to compensate for the reduced revenue. This scenario is illustrated in Figure 8. Note, inclusionary zoning policies typically include offsetting measures to mitigate this impact as it could reduce the effectiveness of the policy and create unintended consequences. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 10 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 The Impact on Affordability As discussed, the impact of these additional charges and fees does not linearly translate to increased costs for consumers. Instead, the cumulative impact of rising housing production costs will put downward pressure on land prices. However, if significant, this reduction in land prices can impact the supply of available and developable land, which in turn could impact housing prices by shifting supply and demand conditions. If the downward pressure on land values leads to a decline in land available for development, the supply of new housing will be reduced, which in turn could lead to increased pricing for both new and existing housing. Downward pressure on land value can impact the supply of developable land in several ways: Existing landowners may be less likely to sell or redevelop a property, as the existing land use may provide equal or even greater value; Project viability can be impacted as the costs of development may exceed local market pricing; and, Other competitive uses such as office and retail uses may now be able to compete for properties. Any of these potential outcomes could discourage reinvestment, reducing the supply of new housing and putting upward pressure on housing prices to the extent that the market will allow ultimately reducing affordability. As supply is constrained, the market is either forced to pay more for housing or make other housing choices. This may be especially true in low-growth areas where financial margins are already very thin, but opportunities for lower cost housing are the greatest. These areas also benefit significantly from new investment in terms of community improvements. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 11 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 4.0 Methodology The following section summarizes the methodology employed to consider be impacted under the potential impacts of new municipal fees and policy changes. various policy/fee environments. These land values are then compared to the value of alternative land uses Land Value as a Measure of Feasibility that are prevalent in each local area. This includes uses such as retail, To evaluate the impact of new policies on real estate development, we office, and lower-density residential uses. If the land value of the examine the financial viability of different residential typologies in a range redevelopment scenario approaches or falls below the alternative use of markets across the city before and after the new policies are introduced. values, we assume that the viability of the project is in question. In other We words, an owner of a property would not be motivated to sell or redevelop steps: the site, thereby reducing the supply of developable land. Develop a market rationale for the site that supports a certain form of Based on this analysis, we can understand the market areas or building development based on the local characteristics of supply and demand. forms that show evidence of weak viability under the various policy/fee This includes unit sizing, types, pricing, parking sales, and project sales environments. These will be areas where we would expect to see pace. This analysis considers current conditions and future market development interest weaken or be delayed until the market can support factors. higher sales pricing or rents. Further, this analysis allows us to assess the magnitude of land value change that would result in the instance of policy Calculate the revenues that might accrue for the project given the change. Significant changes to land value could impact the availability of defined market parameters. land for redevelopment, the production of housing, and other negative Subtract from the revenues an estimate of all the costs associated with externalities or unintended consequences. the development both hard and soft costs. Figure 9 The rem pay for the land and achieve the profit they require to undertake the development. This model is repeated for each of the test sites using the appropriate local market inputs. The outputs of the model are then used to examine how a Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 12 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Establishing Comparative Land Values viability of new residential development generally. The reality is that conditions for development and the motivations of landowners and To establish the benchmark where landowners become less motivated to developers will vary within submarkets and across the city and region redevelop their property for higher density housing, we estimate the value more generally. market areas to approximate how much a developer would need to pay to acquire a property for For example, a recent trend is for shopping centre owners to intensify their development. Where a developer would assemble multiple residential sites with new rental housing. For many long-term owners, the initial properties, we consider the price and site area of recent comparable acquisition cost has been capitalized through the existing retail use. This transactions to determine the number of properties the developer would allows the developer to input little to no land cost, improving the need to acquire and the value of those properties under as-is, where-is economics of the project and affording the developer greater latitude to conditions. We then add a 30 percent premium to acknowledge that rationalize the investment. incumbent homeowners would need to be incentivized to sell their Similarly, a developer who may have purchased land in a high-demand property for redevelopment. market several years ago and is only now moving forward with For income producing properties, we use an income capitalization method development may have a buffer against higher construction costs to approximate the value of the property under as-is, where is conditions. (including municipal fees) as they have purchas We then add a ten percent premium to this market value to again values much lower than current market values. acknowledge that the landowner requires an incentive to sell the property Conversely, developers who have recently purchased land at market if it is to be developed to its highest and best use. In both instances, this values, particularly those without prior knowledge of the magnitude of value inclusive of the premium costs increases through inflation or new government policies, will have these representative land uses that must be exceed by the little financial buffer to maintain project viability. These developers may land value if it is to be considered financially viable. cancel or delay development until the sales prices or rents increase enough This study is positioned from the perspective of a developer who will to offset the cost of the policies. In general, we can expect the financial purchase land at market values and develop within a reasonable time viability of projects to be negatively impacted whenever development frame. The analysis can not capture the motivations of every landowner or costs increase at a greater pace than revenues, potential to the extent that developer when choosing whether to redevelop a given parcel and it is not the investment in delayed or abandoned completely. an exhaustive comparison to the value of every potential development site in a market area. The comparison of residual land values to the acquisition price of representative properties is simply a high-level benchmarking exercise to help illustrate where there may be a risk to the economic Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 13 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 4.1 Site Selection & Market Assumptions NBLC has undertaken market research to establish revenue and other market inputs in the model. The market inputs in addition to all other site- This analysis seeks to evaluate how different types of residential specific model inputs are shown in Appendix A Model Inputs. development across different market areas may be impacted by the proposed policies. As such, we have modelled ten prototypical 4.2 Proposed Policy and Fee Changes development concepts across four market areas, herein referred to as test The following section provides a summary of the proposed policies that sites. These test sites were developed collaboratively with City staff and have been evaluated in our analysis. are intended to be representative of typical development conditions in each of the market areas. They capture a range of residential projects that are Community Benefits Charge currently occurring or are anticipated to occur in the city. Section 37 of the Ontario Planning Act permits municipalities to exchange The four market areas consist of Downtown, Central Neighbourhoods, Old the increased height and density sought in rezoning applications for Suburban Neighbourhoods, and Greenfield Development in Southwest community benefits, delivered through in-kind contributions or cash Kitchener. Note that the Greenfield Development market area does not payments. Up until 2020, this was negotiated exaction commonly referred include a comparison of residual land values to the acquisition price of to as a Section 37 agreement. properties under existing uses as the greenfield sites are properties which In 2020, the provincial government amended the Planning Act replacing have not yet been intensively developed. These properties are typically the former Section 37 density bonusing approach with a new Community natural areas or agricultural properties, both of which command very low -tier and lower-tier municipalities prices relative to most any other land use. are now able to impose a CBC on new development to pay for the capital The development typologies evaluated include high-density residential costs of facilities, services, and other matters required to support new apartments, four-storey residential apartments, and stacked townhouses. development. Most importantly, unlike the previous Section 37 Single-detached, semi-detached, and traditional townhomes were not agreements which were only triggered by zoning amendments and minor evaluated in this analysis as their pricing characteristics are highly variances, CBCs are triggered under almost all planning applications dependent on the unique attributes of each property (quality of finishes, lot including plans of subdivision, plans of condominium, and building area and adjacencies, school catchment area, etc.). This variation makes it permits for buildings five storeys or greater. Further, the value of a CBC exceedingly difficult to discern the impact individual policies may have on is calculated as a percentage of the value of the land, capped at 4% of land the financial viability of these product types. Moreover, three of the four value the day before building permit issuance. policies tested in this analysis (IZ, CBCs, and CIL of Parkland) would not For our analysis, we have tested each of the hypothetical projects under apply in the context of low-density development. the existing Section 37 framework and the proposed CBC framework. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 14 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Section 37 Under the existing Section 37 framework, it is assumed changes to Region of Waterloo DCs as the regional DC by-law is not being that the City receives no payment from the hypothetical developments, updated at this time. Following the one-time rate increase shown below, it is assumed the proposed DCs will inflate at an annual rate equivalent to the Statistic CBC Under the proposed CBC policy framework, it is assumed that Canada Building Construction Price Index for Non-Residential Buildings the city receives a payment equal to 4% of the land value for each of in the Toronto Area (Table 18-10-0135-01), per City policy. For this the hypothetical developments, granted it is greater than five storeys analysis, we have used the average inflation rate over the past five years, tall and contains more than 10 units (per s.37(4) of the Planning Act. equating to 5.1% per year. For clarity, the CBC would not apply to the stacked townhouse and four-storey apartment projects modelled in this analysis. The basis for Figure 10 Current and Proposed Development Charges the CBC calculation is the residual land value supported by the development concept under the policy scenario. As such, the CBC is variable across sites and between policy scenarios. This calculation methodology can be contrasted with an approach that uses a standardized land value or per unit rate which is held constant across policy scenarios. That is, an approach which does not adjust to reflect the cost of other policies, market strength, or built form among other factors which are used to establish a residual land value. Development Charges Parkland Conveyance (Cash-in-Lieu) The Development Charges Act permits municipalities in Ontario to enact by-laws that impose levies on new developments to pay for growth-related Section 42 and Section 51.1 of the Planning Act permits municipalities to capital expenses for municipal services such as roads, water, recreation, require new developments to dedicate a portion of the site for parkland or and public works. A municipality must complete a development charge collect a payment of cash-in-lieu (CIL). background study prior to passing a development charge by-law, with this dedication policy is as follows: study setting the Residential projects which provide land for parks must do so at a rate The current and proposed draft DCs are shown in Figure 10. This analysis of 1 hectare per 300 units or a maximum of 5% of site area, whichever considers changes to both the residential DCs and non-residential DCs in is greater. the case of mixed-use buildings. The analysis does not consider any Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 15 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 For residential projects which provide cash-in-lieu of parkland, the than those in the current policy reflects the fact that the parkland dedication dedication rate is1 hectare per 500 units or a maximum of 5% of site policy and the appraised land values which underpin it have not been area, whichever is greater. updated in over ten years. As discussed in Section 2.0, Kitchener has experienced significant demand for housing over this period, particularly The non-residential dedication rate is 2% of site area or a cash-in-lieu in centrally located areas around the ION LRT. This demand for housing payment of equivalent value. has outstripped supply and placed upward pressure on prices and rents. To specifies the benchmark land values to be used for the the extent that prices have escalated faster than costs, developers have been purposes of calculating the cash-in-lieu payment, with different per hectare able to bid up the price of land which is suitable for redevelopment. This values for various built forms. The key policy changes measured in the has created a mismatch between the ten-year-old land values used in the analysis include an update to these outdated benchmark land values and current CIL policy, , the introduction of a cap on the CIL payment for high-density built forms. eroding purchasing power for parkland in these high demand areas. In short, the policy no longer reflects the demand for parks and the In this analysis, we consider a CIL rate of 1 hectare per 500 units with a cost to provide them in Kitcheneringly urban central areas. per-unit fee cap of $12,000 per unit. A per-unit cap on parkland fees is a common feature of alternative dedication rates for high-density In updating these policies, City staff have the opportunity to recalibrate the development contexts. Absent a cap or similar feature in the alternative policy to reflect current and emerging parkland needs, and balance those dedication rate, projects with residential densities greater than needs against other goals related to building transit-oriented and complete 3 approximately 3.5 to 4.5 FSI would be required to dedicate more land (or communities. We note however that this work is ongoing, and that the cash equivalent) for parks than is being developed for housing. This is capped dedication rate considered herein may be subject to change. typically not financially feasible nor practical in the context of provincial policies which promote intensification and the efficient use of land. Inclusionary Zoning The flexibility afforded to municipalities in the Planning Act to collect CIL The Region of Waterloo and its three constituent municipalities continue of parkland and to set an alternative dedication rate exists to accommodate to explore an Inclusionary Zoning by-law and at this time, the policy has infill urban development conditions, with the Planning Act maximums not been firmly defined. As such, the potential economic impacts an more closely aligned to low-density suburban development contexts. inclusionary zoning by-law as modelled herein should be considered cursory and subject to change as the policy becomes more clearly defined. Figure 11 illustrates the difference between the CIL payment expected under the current and proposed policy, before and after the per unit payment cap is applied. That the land value figures are significantly greater 3 Assuming an average net unit size of 650 to 850 sq. ft. and a net-to-gross efficiency ratio of 83%. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 16 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 The hypothetical policy modelled in this analysis has the following IZ units in ownership tenure would have an initial index price of parameters: $350 per square foot and it is assumed that the any requirement to restrict the resale price of units in the future would not impact the The policy would be mandatory for any project greater than 10 units development pro forma. which falls within a PMTSA geography. The policy does not include financial and regulatory measures to offset The set-aside requirement would be 5% of total gross floor area and the cost of the policy. The primary impact of the policy is therefore a the suite mix for affordable units would align with that of the market loss of revenue and subsequently a reduced budget for land acquisition component. as illustrated in Figure 8. To the extent that land has already been The tenure of below-market units could be ownership, rented . It is condominiums, or purpose-built rental. important to reiterate that it is uncommon for an inclusionary zoning policy to be enacted without offsetting measures. These measures are IZ units provided in rental tenure would have rents set at 100% of used to mitigate the negative impact the loss of revenue would have on CMHC Average Market Rent (AMR) for the Kitchener-Waterloo- the feasibility of development. Development feasibility must be Cambridge Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). Below-market rents maintained if the policy is to be effective that is, if the policy is to would need to be maintained in perpetuity. deliver affordable units. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 17 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 11 Parkland Dedication Policy Parkland Dedication Policy - Cash-in-Lieu Park Area Current Policy: 1ha/500 units, no capProposed Policy: 1ha/500 units, no capCap at $12,000 per unit Required at Current Land Proposed Proposed CIL Test SiteUnits Current CIL Proposed CIL 1ha/500 units ValuePer UnitLand ValuePayment - No Per UnitDifference ($)Difference (%)Difference ($)Difference (%) PaymentPayment (sq. ft.) Per HectarePer HectareCap Downtown - High Rise Residential37580,729$1,359,000$1,019,000$2,717$43,243,000$32,432,000$86,000$31,413,0003083%$4,500,000$3,481,000342% Central Neighbourhood - High Rise 30064,583$1,359,000$815,000$2,717$19,768,000$11,861,000$40,000$11,046,0001355%$3,600,000$2,785,000342% Residential Central Neighbourhood - 4-Storey 316,678$1,359,000$84,000$2,708$5,931,000$368,000$12,000$284,000338% Apartment Central Neighbourhood - Stacked 91,975$1,359,000$25,000$2,725$3,830,000$70,000$8,000$45,000180% Townhouse Fairway MTSA - High Rise Residential25053,820$1,359,000$680,000$2,720$19,768,000$9,884,000$40,000$9,204,0001354%$3,000,000$2,320,000341% Fairway MTSA - Stacked Townhouse91,953$1,359,000$25,000$2,756$3,830,000$69,000$8,000$44,000176% Old Suburban Neighbourhood - 8818,890$1,359,000$239,000$2,724$3,830,000$672,000$8,000$433,000181% Stacked Townhouse Greenfield Southwest Kitchener - High 25053,820$1,359,000$680,000$2,720$19,768,000$9,884,000$40,000$9,204,0001354%$3,000,000$2,320,000341% Rise Residential Greenfield Southwest Kitchener - 4- 337,137$1,359,000$90,000$2,715$5,931,000$393,000$12,000$303,000337% Storey Apartment Greenfield Southwest Kitchener - 8818,890$1,359,000$239,000$2,724$3,830,000$672,000$8,000$433,000181% Stacked Townhouse $ figures rounded to nearest thousand Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 18 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 recommended policy direction. The policy combinations evaluated in this 4.3 Policy Scenarios analysis are shown in Figure 12. The analysis seeks to evaluate the impact of new policies on the feasibility All policy options tested in this analysis include the new CBC charge of residential development through a comparison of residual land values except for the base case/ current policy scenario. This was done to limit before and after new policies are introduced. The analysis evaluates the the number of iterations with the understanding that the fee would impact of the policies in isolation, followed by various combinations of constitute a very small amount relative to the entire development budget, the policies, to develop a body of evidence which will and therefore have very limited impact on financial viability. Figure 12 Policy Scenarios IZ Set Aside PolicySection 37Development ChargesCIL of Parkland DedicationTenure of IZ Units Requirement Policy Current S. 37 or Proposed Current DC Rate or Current CIL of Parkland Rate or No IZ, Ownership, Rented No IZ, 5% OptionsCBCProposed DC RateProposed CIL of Parkland RateCondo 1 Current S. 37Current DC RateCurrent CIL of Parkland RateNo IZNo IZ 2 Proposed CBCCurrent DC RateCurrent CIL of Parkland RateNo IZNo IZ 3 Proposed CBCProposed DC RateCurrent CIL of Parkland RateNo IZNo IZ 4 Proposed CBCCurrent DC RateProposed CIL of Parkland RateNo IZNo IZ 5 Proposed CBCCurrent DC RateCurrent CIL of Parkland RateCondominium5% 6 Proposed CBCCurrent DC RateCurrent CIL of Parkland RateRented Condominium5% 7 Proposed CBCProposed DC RateProposed CIL of Parkland RateNo IZNo IZ 8 Proposed CBCProposed DC RateCurrent CIL of Parkland RateCondominium5% 9 Proposed CBCProposed DC RateCurrent CIL of Parkland RateRented Condominium5% 10 Proposed CBCCurrent DC RateProposed CIL of Parkland RateCondominium5% 11 Proposed CBCCurrent DC RateProposed CIL of Parkland RateRented Condominium5% 12 Proposed CBCProposed DC RateProposed CIL of Parkland RateCondominium5% 13 Proposed CBCProposed DC RateProposed CIL of Parkland RateRented Condominium5% Coloured cells indicate policy change from status quo. Purpose-built rental tested in the downtown market area for illustration purposes only. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 19 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 sites support lower land value residuals and therefore would be subject to 5.0 Impacts on High-Density Residential a lower CBC. For example, the next greatest RLV is supported by the Development Central Neighbourhood High-Rise Residential test site. This test site would have a CBC of roughly $1,000 per unit. Detailed results of the financial analysis are found in Appendix B Impact It is a core assumption of this work that the CBC is calculated on the land Analysis Model Results. The results show impacts to the residual land value residual supported by the actual development under consideration. value supported by new residential development across each of the test This is contrasted with a schedule-based approach which seeks to sites under the thirteen fee/policy scenarios. Further detail for each of the standardize the rate and apply it in a uniform fashion to all developments of a particular type, scale, and/or location. A schedule-based approach, acquisition under each of the policy scenarios and how these values while easy to administer and communicate, must be updated regularly to compare to the value of representative land uses are provided in individual reflect the financial impact of other policy changes and evolving market site summary results (Figure 17 to Figure 27). The following section conditions, lest it invite appeals from developers who can illustrate clearly provides a discussion of our results. whether the rate is calibrated to the economics of the day. This would particularly be the case following the incidence of policy changes which 5.1 Proposed DCs and CBCs Have Minimal Impact on create significant market impacts such as the proposed IZ and Parkland Development Economics Dedication policies considered herein. As shown in Figure 10, the proposed DC rates will increase the cost of development by roughly $1,307 to $1,917 per unit. This is such a small 5.2 Impact of Parkland Policy is Significant but Attenuated increase to development costs that its impact on the economics of new by Capped Approach residential development will be immaterial. For context, the average The relatively minimal impact created by the proposed DC and CBC construction cost for a high-density condominium apartment unit in this policies can be contrasted with the more significant impacts of the CIL of analysis is approximately $650,000 including developer profit but Parkland policy on the economics of high-density development. Policy excluding land. The proposed DC rate therefore represents less than half Scenario 4, for example, introduces new parkland fees in addition to the of a percent increase in construction costs. proposed CBC changes. In this scenario, we show that residual land values The proposed CBC will have a slightly greater but still relatively would be lower by 11% in the Downtown High Rise test site and 35% at insignificant impact on development viability. As modelled in this the Central Neighbourhood High Rise test site. These two test sites would analysis, the Downtown High Rise test site supports the greatest residual be subject to the highest parkland dedication rate at $12,000 per unit, land value and therefore has the greatest CBC charge. However, in this understanding the rate and subsequent impacts could be much higher if it analysis this equates to a cost of roughly $3,600 per unit. All other test were not capped. The impacts are less significant for lower-density product Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 20 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 types because the city-wide appraisal attributes a lower per unit land value Further, despite this evidence of potential impacts, it is also possible that to these built forms, resulting in a smaller cash-in-lieu payment. many projects in areas of weaker market demand may not be subject to the full cost of the proposed cash-in-lieu policy. The relatively significant impact on residual land values in these markets recommendations prioritize the dedication of physical parkland which in is not unexpected given the policy has not been updated in emerging high-density nodes is likely more achievable given large lot sizes ten years. In our view, the per unit cap plays an important role in and contiguous parcel fabric. Future planning processes at future nodes of transitioning to this more costly policy. high-density development such as the Fairway, Blockline, and Sportsworld MTSAs are likely to reinforce this intent. Therefore, while the As the City and its consultants have worked to prepare a new appraisal for appraised values within the proposed CIL calculations are significantly CIL calculations, we understand that there were an insufficient number of higher, the ability to dedicate and receive credit for on-site or off-site transactions of high-density development parcels in areas of weak market parkland may alleviate near term impacts to development viability in these demand to support a more granular, area-rated appraisal of land values emerging markets. which might generate a lower, less impactful cash-in-lieu payment in these areas. In the emerging policy environment, developers will weigh the opportunity cost associated with foregoing a developable parcel and We also understand from conversation with local developers that it is instead conveying it for parks purpose, versus paying CIL of parkland. common practice to assemble properties through agreements where land When faced with the alternative of paying a more costly cash-in-lieu fee, does not transact until the development process is well underway and some developers with existing landholdings may be able to mitigate the entitlements have been established, further eroding the visibility of these financial impact through the conveyance of land. transactions and the ability to benchmark the policy to local market dynamics. -in-lieu policy also includes a provision for site--relief Our testing supports this commentary as we find that the feasibility of should the new policy be too burdensome in certain market areas high-density development outside of the downtown market is significantly or following significant changes to market conditions. As these areas build more marginal than in core areas. Therefore we would not expect to see a out and it becomes increasingly difficult to deliver meaningful physical substantial number of development proposals come forward to support an park space as part of a development parcel, the City will likely have more appraisal calibrated to local submarkets. land transactions upon which to recalibrate the cash-in-lieu policy and It will take time for the impacts of policy change to be reflected in future potentially support area-rated charges which offer greater balance between land transaction data such that the policy can be recalibrated. Capping the the cost to provide land or cash-in-lieu. parkland fee is therefore a prudent, interim measure to limit near-term market impacts. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 21 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 The results of this review illustrate that the City should continue to 5.3 Inclusionary Zoning Creates the Greatest Impact advance provisions in its policies which would allow off-site land to be Our analysis indicates that the IZ policy considered in this analysis would conveyed for parks purposes. Granted the parks are proximate to the have the most significant impact on development economics and this development such that they serve the needs of new residents, this would impact is largely a function of the . Crucially, the policy provide developers with increased flexibility to mitigate the cost of the does not consider any measures to offset the loss of development revenue policy. Some developers may elect to front-end parkland provisions for and so developers must instead lower their bid price for acquisition sites if multiple phases of development and/or collaborate with neighbouring they have not yet acquired one and/ or may not achieve their risk adjusted landowners to create larger contiguous parks. return if they already own the development site. Another important consideration will be the calibration of rates for In the strongest market location, Downtown Kitchener, we find the policy physical land dedication and CIL so that they become more equivalent or could negatively impact residual land values by 15 to 17% depending on in fact prioritize the dedication of land. The cash-in-lieu policy considered the tenure of the units. The developer at this location would be required to herein uses a dedication rate of 1 hectare per 500 units, with a per unit cap forego approximately $25,000 to $30,000 of revenue on a total per unit of $12,000 per unit. However, should a developer choose to covey land, basis, or $550,000 to $590,000 per below market unit specifically. That the dedication rate is 1 hectare per 300 units, with no cap on the amount of the impact to land values is not severe as it reflects the relatively high parkland. Absent an adjustment to the rate or the method for valuing land, residual land values in this market area. We find impacts to stacked a developer who is required to convey land would be providing more land townhome land values would be less than 10% for the same reason that per unit, than they would pay in a cash equivalent. Addressing this disincentive will be important to ensure desired planning outcomes are budget due to market strength for this product type. achieved. For instance, when developing an approach for the dedication of off-site parkland, the City could consider an approach where the capped By contrast, weaker submarkets would see much more substantial impacts CIL rate is used to estimate the total amount of land that is required, with to land value on a percentage basis when faced with a proportionally off-site lands credited towards the CIL calculation. similar loss of revenue per unit. In the Central Neighbourhood market area, we see IZ policy would erode residual land values by 47 to 53% depending Going forward, the per unit cap and other features of the parkland policy on the tenure. should be revisited periodically to maintain relevancy to the economic and policy context of the day and provide certainty for the market. In our view, It is important to note that the IZ policy direction has not been finalized at many of the unintended consequences of policies which levy new costs on the local or regional level. So these findings, while useful for analyzing development can be mitigated through advance notice, appropriate the current policy direction, are subject to change should the actual policy transition and a clear schedule of fees. differ in any substantive way. The results suggest that the City and Region should consider transition and offsetting measures to mitigate against Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 22 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 unintended consequences and ultimately improve the effectiveness of the are less severe (e.g. market areas where IZ does not apply). Another policy. Unlike the growth funding tools considered in this analysis, the potential unintended outcome is upward pressure on housing prices due to City has broad latitude to design the policy to mitigate against negative fewer homes being brought to market. market impacts, something that will be particularly important when faced These findings indicate that the City must consider a sensitive approach to with the cumulative impact of the other policies under consideration. the design of the policy (e.g. capped or graduated rates for parkland, offsetting measures for inclusionary zoning) and implementation of the 5.4 Cumulative Impacts of Policy Changes on Land Value policy (transition and phase-in for both). can be Significant The cumulative impacts of multiple policy changes are likely to be 5.5 Cumulative Impacts Vary Widely by Location and Form significant where the policy combination includes the new parkland Impacts resulting from increases to growth funding tools can vary policy, inclusionary zoning policy, or both. In scenarios 10 and 11 both significantly based on built form and market geography. For instance, the policies are tested as well as the proposed CBC. The analysis estimates cumulative impacts experienced in stacked townhome forms are that the combined impact of policies could erode residual land values by significantly less than the impacts demonstrated in tall apartment building 23% to 92%, depending on the tenure of the units. This would represent a forms. There are several dynamics affecting these outcomes: substantial shock to the market and would be unsustainable in the short term. Variation in market pricing There are substantial differences in achievable market revenue across submarkets and development forms. The reality is that the land market is not so efficient that land vendors This is particularly true for apartments which see strong demand and would immediately adjust their pricing expectations by such significant pricing in the transit-adjacent central core, but weaker demand and amount, including long-term landowners who may have a larger buffer pricing in outlying submarkets. against such declining land values. Variation in building typology and costs The cost to construct tall More likely, in instances where a high degree of impact is projected, concrete apartment buildings in central urban areas is substantially impacts could cause some land vendors to retract from the market, opting greater than lower-density wood frame apartments or stacked either to wait until pricing has recovered or instead utilizing their land for townhomes in greenfield locations. Key design variables such as an alternative land use that supports higher values. In either case, the building scale, parking solutions (i.e., surface, underground, impact would be a net loss in the supply of land that could be used for structured, or combinations thereof), and site size will all influence the residential development. financial performance of the project and its ability to maintain viability following the policy changes. A potential unintended consequence of this shock to the land market is the redistribution of investment activity to locations where financial impacts Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 23 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Applicability of policy tools Our analysis tests up to 13 policy 5.7 Strongest Market Areas are Better Capable of Sustaining permutations for each building prototype. However, the potential the Impact of Increased Charges policy changes do not apply uniform fashion across the city or across All else being equal, stronger submarkets are generally able to withstand a all project typologies. For instance, the Planning Act excludes exempts higher increase in costs. These stronger submarkets can achieve higher buildings with fewer than five storeys from the Community Benefits project revenues and so residual land values tend to be greater than would Charge, while the application of Inclusionary Zoning policies is be found in weaker market locations under the same development cost geographically limited to Protected Major Transit Station Areas conditions. Where this residual land value is significantly greater than the (PMTSAs). In general, we find that projects in locations where more value of a development parcel under its current use, the land value provides intensive forms of development are achievable, particularly transit- some buffer against increased costs. Conversely, weaker submarkets have oriented locations, will be subject to more policies and therefore lower underlying land values due to lower achievable project revenues. In exhibit greater impacts overall. this case, higher costs can have a more significant impact on these residual Market demand for housing and the cost to produce different types of land values. In some scenarios, higher costs can impact the supply of housing varies widely across Kitchener. As a result, the impact of new developable land for new residential development as competing land uses policies individually, but particularly in combination, will be will produce higher valuations, thereby disincentivizing redevelopment. geographically uneven. For example, the Downtown High Density test site represents the most mature market location for high density apartment development in the City 5.6 Increased Construction Costs Exacerbate Development Kitchener. In this submarket, the full implantation of new fees and policy Challenges changes would reduce thresidual land value by 24% to 26% As noted in previous sections, high-density residential construction costs depending on the tenure of the units, from the existing status quo scenario. have increased at an unprecedented pace over the past two years. While this is significant, it is anticipated that Previously, revenue grew at an equal or faster pace than costs. With this remain competitive relative to some representative land uses in this market relationship eroding in the near-term, the viability of many projects is area (Figure 17). the becoming increasingly challenging prior to the introduction of new residual land value would remain above the value of properties as income policies. Further, the recent and projected interest rate increases in the producing assets, suggesting developers will continue to be able to acquire short-term will continue to erode consumer purchasing power and thereby sites for development after the policies have been introduced, weaken residential demand. This puts particular onus on the City to notwithstanding the initial shock and subsequent repricing of development introduce new fees and charges in a sensitive manner, through appropriate parcels. transition and where possible, offsetting measures to recognize the challenges real estate development is facing at the moment. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 24 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 This may not be the case in weaker market areas as exhibited in the 5.8 Recent Land Purchasers Generally Have Thinner Central Neighbourhood High Density Residential test site. As this Margins market area is less developed and offers fewer amenities Residential land values in the Kitchener-Waterloo region have seen downtown, there is a lower level of high-density demand which can limit considerable growth in recent years. This suggests that the highest and best a project revenues. As shown in use for many sites, particularly those located in strong market areas, may be the development of medium- to high-density residential uses. To the extent that landowners have made historical acquisitions of properties, these higher residual land values can provide some cushion against rising costs, particularly where land has been owned for many years in advance of the proposed cost increases. Figure 18, the implementation of the full range of proposed policies and The challenging financial results demonstrated in testing for the Fairway fees would decrease this 85% to 91% depending and Southwest Kitchener emphasize this dynamic in the Kitchener- on the tenure of the units, from the status quo. This decrease would make Waterloo marketplace. In these nascent high-density market areas, there are several examples of new high density redevelopment investment, often price of some representative land uses in that submarket. This means that being led by dedicated rental developers in the local market where these existing land uses could outcompete high-density residential land historical land acquisition and other economies of scale support the values, eroding an incentive to redevelop these sites, thereby reducing the production of new housing investment. supply of developable land. The opposite is true of recently acquired development sites. Developers Moreover, in all but two of the proposed policy scenarios at the Central have likely purchased these properties at the maximum price supported by Neighbourhood test sitefor land acquisitions falls their pro forma given the current policy environment. This is particularly below the acquisition price of some local alternative lands uses (i.e. low- the case where these has been little forewarning that the policy rise retail). This suggests that in softer market areas, there is much less environment will change substantially, and the policies do not include room to increase fees without negatively impacting the new development provisions to mitigate near-term impacts to in-process developments. In sector. In weaker market areas such as these, the City should consider these scenarios, developers will have limited latitude to discount their land offsetting the cost of the more impactful policies such as IZ and CIL of value to achieve an acceptable return on their investment. This could result Parkland if it wishes to support intensification of this scale. However, even in the developer needing to hold the property until market revenues have with some policies offset, market demand to live in these locations will increased enough to reinstate an acceptable return. This would of course remain the most important determinant as to whether projects become economically viable. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 25 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 depending on the tenure of the units, as compared to the current policy result in a reduction of developable land supply and potentially a reduction environment (Figure 15 and in the supply of housing that would otherwise be brough to market. Understanding the impact that cost increases can have on recent land Figure 16). If residential values were suppressed by this magnitude across purchasers and therefore housing supply more broadly underscores the the municipality, some landowners may view this as a loss even if the RLV importance of properly signalling the upcoming changes to the continues to exceed the value of the site under its current use. In this development industry. In addition, it highlights the need to move forward scenario, long-term landowners may opt to hold onto their land with the with a degree of caution. The City should consider phasing in significant hope that future revenue increases will restore the RLV to its value prior policy changes in digestible increments, so as to allow the market time to to the policy change. This outcome is less likely in policy scenarios where adjust to the new policy environment and associated costs. the impact on land values is more modest. 5.9 Long-Term Landowners May Also Hold Back Supply As noted earlier, these impacts on land values vary by submarket, with weaker submarkets seeing more substantial impacts. Long-term Significant fee increases could also impact the actions of long-term landowners in these weaker market areas, such as Kitchener Southwest, landowners, despite the theoretical buffer that could absorb some degree could be more likely to delay investment decisions in the face of even small policy change, in large part because some fees such as DCs or rapid escalation in fees that substantially reduce residual land values could Parkland are standardized across the City and therefore have a greater lead many long-term landowners to delay vending their land for impact where land values are lower. development. They would instead choose to hold their property while revenues increase, even if the residual land value would provide them with 5.10 Rental Housing Would be Significantly Impacted a sufficient buffer to absorb these increased fees and yield an economically viable project. Notwithstanding the recent surge in rental demand, condominium uses almost universally produce higher land values than rental uses in the local Eight of the ten hypothetical sites tested produced financially viable market. There are several reasons that put rental housing at this results. The two sites which did not produce financially viable results were high rise residential apartment typologies at the Fairway MTSA and disadvantage in Ontario: Greenfield Southwest locations where market pricing is weaker than other areas. Across the eight hypothetical test sites which produced viable Financing For condominium projects, financing can be supported development conditions, the full adoption of policy changes and fee with less equity due to the pre-sale process which provides lenders with increases shows a negative impact on residual land values by 2% to 91% development is complete. The equity requirements for rental buildings Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 26 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 can therefore be as high as 50% of the total costs, compared to practice, developers will have unique investment criteria which may still condominium projects where the requirement is typically 25%. warrant the investment, understanding that the initial yield on their investment may be less than would be achieved through acquisition of a Revenue Rental projects require developers to go many years into stabilized asset the development process without any revenue. Further, even once the the long term is what justifies the investment. This dynamic is not atypical building is constructed, it can take months for the building to become for rental housing, particularly for vertically integrated developers, owners, and asset managers of rental housing as they can leverage their form an inexpensive source of financing, subject to obtaining deposit existing portfolio and find organizational efficiencies to achieve the insurance. When the development can be occupied, developers can returns they require. This is more common where land has been held for a immediately charge all purchasers interim occupancy rents until the long time and largely capitalized through an existing use. It is much less project registers and the purchasers complete their sale agreements. likely that the City will see upstart developers acquiring land at condo land Market and Risk For many developers, the market opportunity for prices to develop new purpose-built rental. condominium development offers much less risk and relatively quick returns compared to rental development. The analysis evaluates the 5.11 Stacked Townhomes Fair Well In New Policy feasibility of one prototypical high-density rental apartment building Environment in downtown Kitchener (see Stacked townhomes can fill an important gap in the housing market between traditional low-rise uses and high-rise apartment buildings. Further, as pricing for traditional low-rise homes continues to climb in the local marketplace, this product type can play a role in the ownership Figure 27). The analysis is constructed from the view of a merchant market in the near future, filling a market gap. builder using an income capitalization approach to drive a land value residual. While in practice, it is rare for developers to build and then Our analysis looked at four individual stacked townhome test sites in sell brand new rental buildings, this approach to feasibility analysis is Kitchener. Each generated positive residual land values that could employed by developers when evaluating whether to undertake a compete with existing uses in the market area. In general, we find the development (commonly referred to as a ). This proposed policy changes, individually or in combination, are likely to have analysis includes a 50 basis point premium over current market minimal impact on the feasibility of these built forms. The CBC would not apply to these built forms as they are less than five storeys and while two the development. of the stacked townhouse projects would be subject to the IZ policy as they exceed 10 units, the built form supports strong enough land value results The findings of this analysis indicate that a developer would not achieve to absorb the loss of revenue and remain competitive. the desired return as evidenced by the negative land value residual. In Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 27 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 5.12 Passing Increased Fees on to Purchasers These extra costs come at a time when many buyers, especially those first entering the housing market, will have very little excess cash. It is possible Any increases to development levies (i.e. DCs or other municipal fees) that mortgage at closing, however, each lending institution takes a different usually paid is usually shared between the developer and the purchaser at view on this practice, and the increased mortgage payments would be closing. In the condominium market, it is common for purchase and sale unforeseen by many purchasers. While this additional cost may create agreements to include a cap on future fee increases. This is typically hardship for some purchasers, our study suggests that the risk is generally offered as an incentive by most developers. In instances where the low for most purchasers. For many, appreciation in the value of the unit developer has not offered a cap, it is also common for purchasers to over the pre-development timeline could soften the concern. negotiate a cap individually. If these fees were not capped within the purchase and sale agreement, purchasers would be responsible for the full It is also possible that depending on what policies are adopted, developers fee increase upon closing of their purchase agreement. may adjust their strategy in the future, either increasing the caps or possibly seeking to eliminate them all together. Again, such a scenario To understand the nature of this practice of capping development levy would have negative implications for purchasers. increases, NBLC surveyed Kitchener condominium apartment projects that are in the pre-construction stage. In total, we identified 16 projects, all 5.12.2 Impact on Developers but one of which offered a capped development charge structure to Conversely, developers are responsible for any increases over and above purchasers. the negotiated cap. Should the increases be substantial enough, this will likely come as an additional cost to developers. For developers yet to Table 5 summarizes this research, showing that reported caps ranged from acquire land, these added costs would be reflected in a lower bid price for $1,500 to $10,900, although most were under $8,000. land. However, for many developers who have already purchased land, this cost may not have been anticipated, as noted earlier. This is particularly 5.12.1 Impact on Purchasers true for developers whose projects have been seen delays in obtaining Based on the above research, most purchasers in the market today are development approvals, as well as projects in weaker market areas that likely to have some protection against the proposed development levy have seen a slower presale period. For these developers, the additional increases. However, even with capped fees, increases will be unwelcome costs would have to be absorbed in the profit margin of the development. news to these purchasers at the time of closing, with some purchasers needing to fund increases upwards of $10,000 at closing, subject to the While some of the fee changes being considered in Kitchener are relatively terms and definitions within agreement of purchase and modest, there is nevertheless risk that the cost increases could erode a sale. It should be noted, however, that the majority of purchasers would profit margin. If profit margins are impacted significantly, the have lower capped rates. vulnerability of a project increases. In severe instances, this can mean that Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 28 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 project may become financially infeasible and could be cancelled. This that developers would be required to return. In this instance, these scenario would be most burdensome for purchasers, particularly first-time purchasers may end up being priced out of the new home market, at no homebuyers, as new home pricing has grown beyond the down payments fault of their own. Table 5 Capped Development Fee Incentives - Actively Marketing & Sold Out Pre-Construction Projects, City of Kitchener Project First Occupancy Capped Fees (Y/N) Studio One-Bed Two-Bed Three-Bed TEK Tower Sep-26 Yes $6,900 $6,900 $8,900 $10,900 Elevate Condos at 1333 Weber St - Tower B May-24 Yes $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 Garment Street Condos May-22 Yes N/A Young Condos at City Centre May-22 Yes $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 Otis May-22 No - - - - Elevate Condos at 1333 Weber St - Tower C May-25 Yes $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 DTK Condos May-22 Yes - $0 $0 - Wynstone at Lackner Ridge May-24 Yes - $5,000 $7,500 - Hillcrest at Lackner Ridge May-24 Yes - $5,000 $7,500 - Elevate Condos at 1333 Weber St Aug-23 Yes $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 $2,500 Westvale at Lackner Ridge May-23 Yes - $5,000 $7,500 - Sonterra at Lackner Ridge Sep-22 Yes - $5,000 $7,500 - Cityview at Lackner Ridge Sep-22 Yes - $5,000 $7,500 - Bright Building May-23 Yes $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 - Station Park - Union Towers - Tower 001/002 Jun-22 Yes N/A Average: $3,483 $3,825 $5,033 $3,980 Source: Altus Data Studio / Project Marketing Materials statements regarding the feasibility of all real estate development 5.13 Limitations of this Analysis throughout the city. This analysis is intended to provide the City with a body of evidence The selection of the ten test sites and typologies, while largely reflective concerning the viability of residential real estate development following of the most prominent types of medium- and high-density residential the incidence of multiple policy changes. The findings should be development in Kitchener, cannot articulate the full nuance of impact on considered general indicators of economic outcomes, not definitive Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 29 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 any specific project given the sheer variability of project-specific design, This analysis cannot capture certain nuances arising from the nature of a development scale, site and market characteristics. For instance, it is noted historical land purchase or the former capitalization of land costs through that particular features of the development prototypes (e.g. the delivery of the operation of an income-generating use in the interim. Nor can it parking in various combinations of underground, structured above grade, contemplate the acquisition of land at values which may not fully account and surface parking stalls) do shape the findings of the analysis. To the for the risks posed by a changing market or policy conditions. Moreover, extent that the characteristics of a specific development project differ there will be instances throughout the City where land vendors, developers substantially from the prototypes tested, the City could see different or operators have operating assumptions that differ from those in this impacts and outcomes from the policy changes. In general, however, the report. For this reason, it is possible that development may or may not prototypes are believed to be reasonable representations of common forms occur in practice which might be contrary to the results of this work. of development in Kitchener. This is a forward-looking analysis and so the findings, particularly the land A major factor which is affecting the findings in this analysis is the rapidly value residuals as supported by the prototypes, may not yet be reflected in changing cost of construction. As noted in previous sections, we have seen comparable market activity. This is not an uncommon discrepancy, the hard construction costs of high-density housing increase rapidly over particularly in nascent high-density market locations such as Kitchener the past two years, creating uncertainty in current development pro forma where there is an abundance of developable land and growing demand for models. While we have developed high-level hard cost assumptions using high-density living. up-to-date industry information, it is important to recognize the actual Lastly, the impacts we find in this analysis are very much a product of the costing of any given project will vary due to unique features of the project policies as currently conceived. We recognize that the policies (IZ and and site. Further, costs change over time and our models do include revised parkland fees in particular) are still under development. Each contingencies in addition to cost and revenue escalation factors to capture policy is unique in its design and application and impacts can vary some of this variability. However, it is impossible to predict at what pace significantly based on the nuance of each policy. As the approach to cost could inflate or deflate over a project timeline and different developers implementing these policies are finalized, updated market and financial are likely to assess and react to these risks in myriad ways. analysis could be warranted. Also related is the nature of development or redevelopment potential throughout some areas of the City. This analysis isolates evaluation to one single development phase. However, in some locations, the nature of redeveloping areas is such that large lot areas will result in multi-phase developments. This analysis pro rates the valuation of existing land uses to the area required to support a single phase of redevelopment. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 30 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 development finances to absorb all the policy changes being contemplated 6.0 Conclusions at one time. The effects, however, vary depending on market strength and development typology, contextual features which require careful As demonstrated by our analysis, the increased costs and reduced revenues consideration in policy design and implementation. resulting from the proposed policy changes and fee increases would be absorbed by reducing residential land values. In some instances, this For these reasons, the municipality should consider approaches to mitigate reduction in residential land values may improve the ability of other non- the significant impacts that these policy changes can have as they residential land uses, such as retail, to compete for land in prime locations. accumulate in a pro forma. This could include a phase in period that adjusts It may also cause land vendors to delay investment decisions, choosing over time to reflect economic conditions (such as interest rates), or instead to wait until market pricing returns to a more favourable level. dedicated measures built into the policies themselves to mitigate or wholly offset the financial impact. It is possible in some instances that the magnitude of change projected through the cumulative scenarios in this review could undermine the supply of land that is available for residential development. The impacts providing clarity to the development industry and time for markets to of this reduction in residential land values and the corresponding reduction adjust with the adoption of major proposed policy and fee changes. The in residential land supply should not be understated. municipality should continue to act in a deliberate manner that seeks to prioritize the implementation of municipal policy objectives. A predictable As shown in our analysis, high density projects in weaker submarkets are implementation approach should be designed in a manner that allows for economically challenged and while the cumulative impact of some market adjustments to occur, mitigating the risk of unintended policies could affect development viability and/or delay the important consequences to housing market and planned outcomes more investment activity, these market locations are still maturing and do not generally. currently support high density development at scale. Careful transition and implementation policies should accompany planned fee changes and IZ policies in an effort to mitigate unintended consequences, the most critical being an increase to residential pricing due to a delay in emerging investment activity, exacerbating the constrained supply of housing. The pressures to address housing affordability and increase municipal fees facing new residential development come at a time when the industry is facing significant increases to hard construction costs. In addition, the threat of rising interest rates has the potential to undermine demand and pricing. The testing in this analysis illustrates the limited capacity for Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 31 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 7.0 Appendix A Model Inputs Figure 13 Site Specific Model Inputs Greenfield Greenfield Greenfield Central Central Central Old Suburban Downtown Fairway MTSAFairway MTSA Southwest Southwest Southwest Neighbourhood NeighbourhoodNeighbourhood Neighbourhood High Rise High Rise Stacked Kitchener Kitchener Kitchener High Rise 4-Storey Stacked Stacked ResidentialResidentialTownhouseHigh Rise 4-Storey Stacked ResidentialApartmentTownhouseTownhouse ResidentialApartmentTownhouse Building Statistics Site Area sq. ft. 26,91053,82026,91010,76453,82010,764107,63953,82026,910107,639 Building Height storeys 30254425441844 Total Gross Floor Area sq. ft. 322,917257,34926,9108,073232,2748,07380,729219,84926,91080,729 Residential Gross Floor Area sq. ft. 315,417249,84926,9108,073224,7748,07380,729212,34926,91080,729 Retail GrossFloor Area sq. ft. 7,5007,500007,500007,50000 Total Parking Area sq. ft. 65,19499,41611,1683,67082,9173,62842,12078,33311,16842,120 Below Grade Parking Area sq. ft. 37,67475,3470075,3470075,34700 Efficiency Ratio (Residential)of GFA 83%83%83%100%83%100%100%83%83%100% Efficiency Ratio (Retail)of GFA 90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90%90% Suite Mix Studio% total units 5%5%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% 1 Bedroom% total units 50%50%45%15%45%10%0%45%45%0% 2 Bedroom% total units 40%40%50%55%50%60%65%50%50%65% 3 Bedroom% total units 5%5%5%30%5%30%35%5%5%35% Average Unit Size sq. ft.643668720880720890920720720920 Total Residential Units units 4073113192599882453188 Residential Inputs Index Sale Price$ per sq. ft. $1,043$921$909$918$846$918$916$846$846$891 Residential Parking Ratio stalls per unit 0.400.800.901.000.801.001.200.800.901.20 stalls per unit Visitor Parking Ratio0.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.10 Parking Sale Price$ per stall $55,000$40,000$40,000$0$30,000$0$0$30,000$30,000$0 Sales Absorption Rate sales per month 50.040.030.08.040.08.08.025.020.08.0 Retail Inputs Retail Lease Rate per sq. ft. NNN$30$25$25$25$25$25$20$20$20$20 Cash-in-Lieu of Parkland Payments Current CIL of Parkland Payment total value$1,113,000$856,000$84,000$25,000$715,000$25,000$239,000$676,000$84,000$239,000 Proposed CIL of Parkland Payment total value$4,909,000$3,766,000$368,000$70,000$3,148,000$69,000$672,000$2,976,000$368,000$672,000 Hard Costs Above Grade Construction$ per sq. ft. $315$315$268$213$315$213$213$315$268$213 Site Servicing total $1,019,000$777,000$372,000$110,000$648,000$109,000$1,053,000$612,000$372,000$1,053,000 Constrained Sites Cost Premium% hard costs 10%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% Construction Period years 3.53.02.01.53.02.02.03.02.02.0 Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 32 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 14 General Model Inputs Development StatisticsMunicipal Fees per year Market Residential Revenue Inflator3.0%Official Plan Amendment$21,559 base fee per year Below-Market Resdiential Revenue Inflator2.0%Zoning By-Law Amendment$13,000 base fee Below Grade and Structured Parking Area sq. ft. per stall 400Site Plan Application$5,743 base fee Development Rates & Timing Plan of Subdivision $15,771 base fee Profit Margin 15.0%% of revenue Residential Building Permit Fee$1.07 per sq. ft. Discount Rate7.0%per year Retail Building Permit Fee$1.23 per sq. ft. Time to Prior to Sales Start2.0 years Community Benefit Charge4.0%% of land value Occupancy Period Prior to Registration0.5 years Other Soft Costs Hard Costs Consultants, PM, Legal, Insurance, Marketing14.5%hard costs Below Grade Construction$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Property Tax Rate0.3%year Above Grade Structured Parking Cost$150 per sq. ft. above grade area Provincial and Municipal Land Transfer Tax 2.0%% of land value Surface Parking Cost$20 per sq. ft. surface parking area Residential Sales Commissions3.0%% of revenue Demolition & Site Prep$15 per sq. ft. site area Commercial Sales Commission4.0%% of revenue Landscaping & Hardscaping$1,000 per unit HRCA Regulatory Oversight Fee$145 unit Contingency Factor10%% of hard costs Lender's Administrative Fee 0.8%total costs Cost Inflator2.0%year Construction Loan Interest Rate5.0%term 2021 to 2022 YoY Cost Increase0.0%of hard costs HST Rate13.0%year Development Charges HST Rebate $24,000 unit Apartments - Central Kitchener $7,092 per unit Retai Inputs Apartments - Suburban Kitchener $10,588 per unit Retail Vacancy Rate5.00% Non-Residential - Central Kitchener$2.16 per sq. ft. GFA Retail Cap Rate5.50% per year Non-Residential - Suburban Kitchener$5.99 per sq. ft. GFA Retail Revenue Inflator2.00% Apartments - Waterloo Region$15,278per unit Presale & Pricing Inflation Assumptions Non-Residential - Waterloo Region $16.07 per sq. ft. GFA Initial and Final Deposit20%% of unit price Waterloo Regional Education - Residential$4,401 per unit Price Increase at Start and End of Construction 2%% Waterloo Regional Education - Non-Residential$2.33 per sq. ft. GFA Sold During Pre-Constuction / Presales70%% of units 2022 Residential DC Increase - Central18.4%Sold During Construction 20%% of units 2022 Residential DC Increase - Suburban18.1%Sold at Completion 10%% of units 2022 Non-Residential DC Increase - Central7.9%Inclusionary Zoning Inputs Below Market Index Price$ per sq. ft. 2022 Non-Residential DC Increase - Suburban17.5%$350 Set Aside Rate% of total units Development Charge Inflator5.1%per year 5% Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 33 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 8.0 Appendix B Impact Analysis Model Results Figure 15 Impact Analysis Results Summary All Test Sites - Page 1 of 2 Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of Building CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37 Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development Charges Current DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ Units No IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside Requirement No IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Land Value Comparison12345678910111213 Downtown - High Rise Residential Site Area26,910 sq. ft.Total Land Value$ 3 2,300,000$ 3 1,309,000$ 3 0,917,000$ 2 8,846,000$ 2 7,305,000$ 2 6,694,000$ 2 8,455,000$ 2 6,913,000$ 2 6,302,000$ 2 4,838,000$ 2 4,227,000$ 2 4,446,000$ 2 3,835,000 Unit Count407 unitsPer Unit $ 7 9,000$ 7 7,000$ 7 6,000$ 7 1,000$ 6 7,000$ 6 6,000$ 7 0,000$ 6 6,000$ 6 5,000$ 6 1,000$ 5 9,000$ 6 0,000$ 6 0,000 GFA322,917 sq. ft.Per sq. ft GFA $ 1 00$ 9 7$ 9 6$ 8 9$ 8 5$ 8 3$ 8 8$ 8 3$ 8 1$ 7 7$ 7 5$ 7 6$ 7 6 $ Change vs. Scenario 1 -$ ( 991,000)$ (1,383,000)$ (3,454,000)$ (4,995,000)$ (5,606,000)$ (3,845,000)$ (5,387,000)$ (5,998,000)$ (7,462,000)$ (8,073,000)$ (7,854,000)$ (8,465,000) % Change vs. Scenario 1 --3%-4%-11%-15%-17%-12%-17%-19%-23%-25%-24%-26% Central Neighbourhood - High Rise Residential Site Area53,820 sq. ft.Total Land Value$ 6 ,173,000$ 5 ,978,000$ 5 ,671,000$ 4 ,037,000$ 3 ,258,000$ 2 ,892,000$ 3 ,729,000$ 2 ,951,000$ 2 ,585,000$ 1 ,248,000$ 8 59,000$ 9 22,000$ 5 32,000 Unit Count311 unitsPer Unit $ 2 0,000$ 1 9,000$ 1 8,000$ 1 3,000$ 1 0,000$ 9 ,000$ 1 2,000$ 9 ,000$ 8 ,000$ 4 ,000$ 3 ,000$ 3 ,000$ 3 ,000 GFA257,349 sq. ft.Per sq. ft GFA $ 2 4$ 2 3$ 2 2$ 1 6$ 1 3$ 1 1$ 1 4$ 1 1$ 1 0$ 5 $ 3 $ 4 $ 4 $ Change vs. Scenario 1 -$ ( 195,000)$ ( 502,000)$ (2,136,000)$ (2,915,000)$ (3,281,000)$ (2,444,000)$ (3,222,000)$ (3,588,000)$ (4,925,000)$ (5,314,000)$ (5,251,000)$ (5,641,000) % Change vs. Scenario 1 --3%-8%-35%-47%-53%-40%-52%-58%-80%-86%-85%-91% Central Neighbourhood - 4-Storey Apartment Site Area26,910 sq. ft.Total Land Value$ 3 ,439,000$ 3 ,439,000$ 3 ,406,000$ 3 ,227,000$ 3 ,113,000$ 3 ,043,000$ 3 ,194,000$ 3 ,079,000$ 3 ,009,000$ 2 ,901,000$ 2 ,831,000$ 2 ,867,000$ 2 ,797,000 Unit Count31 unitsPer Unit $ 1 11,000$ 1 11,000$ 1 10,000$ 1 04,000$ 1 00,000$ 9 8,000$ 1 03,000$ 9 9,000$ 9 7,000$ 9 4,000$ 9 1,000$ 9 2,000$ 9 2,000 GFA26,910 sq. ft.Per sq. ft GFA $ 1 28$ 1 28$ 1 27$ 1 20$ 1 16$ 1 13$ 1 19$ 1 14$ 1 12$ 1 08$ 1 05$ 1 07$ 1 07 $ Change vs. Scenario 1 -$ - $ (33,000)$ ( 212,000)$ ( 326,000)$ ( 396,000)$ ( 245,000)$ ( 360,000)$ ( 430,000)$ ( 538,000)$ ( 608,000)$ ( 572,000)$ ( 642,000) % Change vs. Scenario 1 -0%-1%-6%-9%-12%-7%-10%-13%-16%-18%-17%-19% Central Neighbourhood - Stacked Townhouse Site Area10,764 sq. ft.Total Land Value$ 1 ,980,000$ 1 ,980,000$ 1 ,969,000$ 1 ,945,000$ 1 ,980,000$ 1 ,980,000$ 1 ,935,000$ 1 ,969,000$ 1 ,969,000$ 1 ,945,000$ 1 ,945,000$ 1 ,935,000$ 1 ,935,000 Unit Count9 unitsPer Unit $ 2 16,000$ 2 16,000$ 2 15,000$ 2 12,000$ 2 16,000$ 2 16,000$ 2 11,000$ 2 15,000$ 2 15,000$ 2 12,000$ 2 12,000$ 2 11,000$ 2 11,000 GFA8,073 sq. ft.Per sq. ft GFA $ 2 45$ 2 45$ 2 44$ 2 41$ 2 45$ 2 45$ 2 40$ 2 44$ 2 44$ 2 41$ 2 41$ 2 40$ 2 40 $ Change vs. Scenario 1 -$ - $ (11,000)$ (35,000)$ - $ - $ (45,000)$ (11,000)$ (11,000)$ (35,000)$ (35,000)$ (45,000)$ (45,000) % Change vs. Scenario 1 -0%-1%-2%0%0%-2%-1%-1%-2%-2%-2%-2% Fairway MTSA - High Rise Residential Site Area53,820 sq. ft.Total Land Value$ ( 7,138,000)$ ( 7,285,000)$ ( 8,181,000)$ ( 11,123,000)$ ( 12,274,000)$ ( 13,517,000)$ ( 12,019,000)$ ( 13,168,000)$ ( 14,412,000)$ ( 16,108,000)$ ( 17,351,000)$ ( 17,002,000)$ ( 18,293,000) Unit Count259 unitsPer Unit $ ( 28,000)$ ( 28,000)$ ( 32,000)$ ( 43,000)$ ( 47,000)$ ( 52,000)$ ( 46,000)$ ( 51,000)$ ( 56,000)$ ( 62,000)$ ( 67,000)$ ( 66,000)$ ( 66,000) GFA232,274 sq. ft.Per sq. ft GFA $ ( 31)$ ( 31)$ ( 35)$ ( 48)$ ( 53)$ ( 58)$ ( 52)$ ( 57)$ ( 62)$ ( 69)$ ( 75)$ ( 73)$ ( 73) $ Change vs. Scenario 1 -$ ( 147,000)$ (1,043,000)$ (3,985,000)$ (5,136,000)$ (6,379,000)$ (4,881,000)$ (6,030,000)$ (7,274,000)$ (8,970,000)$ ( 10,213,000)$ (9,864,000)$ ( 11,155,000) % Change vs. Scenario 1 --2%-15%-56%-72%-89%-68%-84%-102%-126%-143%-138%-156% Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 34 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 16 Impact Analysis Results Summary All Test Sites - Page 2 of 2 Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of Building CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37 Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development Charges Current DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ Units No IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside Requirement No IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Land Value Comparison12345678910111213 Fairway MTSA - Stacked Townhouse Site Area10,764 sq. ft.Total Land Value$ 1 ,872,000$ 1 ,872,000$ 1 ,857,000$ 1 ,838,000$ 1 ,872,000$ 1 ,872,000$ 1 ,824,000$ 1 ,857,000$ 1 ,857,000$ 1 ,838,000$ 1 ,838,000$ 1 ,824,000$ 1 ,824,000 Unit Count9 unitsPer Unit $ 2 06,000$ 2 06,000$ 2 05,000$ 2 03,000$ 2 06,000$ 2 06,000$ 2 01,000$ 2 05,000$ 2 05,000$ 2 03,000$ 2 03,000$ 2 01,000$ 2 01,000 GFA8,073 sq. ft.Per sq. ft GFA $ 2 32$ 2 32$ 2 30$ 2 28$ 2 32$ 2 32$ 2 26$ 2 30$ 2 30$ 2 28$ 2 28$ 2 26$ 2 26 $ Change vs. Scenario 1 -$ - $ (15,000)$ (34,000)$ - $ - $ (48,000)$ (15,000)$ (15,000)$ (34,000)$ (34,000)$ (48,000)$ (48,000) % Change vs. Scenario 1 -0%-1%-2%0%0%-3%-1%-1%-2%-2%-3%-3% Old Suburban Neighbourhood - Stacked Townhouse Site Area107,639 sq. ft.Total Land Value$ 1 8,281,000$ 1 8,281,000$ 1 8,144,000$ 1 7,970,000$ 1 7,126,000$ 1 6,823,000$ 1 7,832,000$ 1 6,989,000$ 1 6,685,000$ 1 6,814,000$ 1 6,511,000$ 1 6,676,000$ 1 6,373,000 Unit Count88 unitsPer Unit $ 2 08,000$ 2 08,000$ 2 07,000$ 2 05,000$ 1 95,000$ 1 92,000$ 2 03,000$ 1 94,000$ 1 90,000$ 1 92,000$ 1 88,000$ 1 90,000$ 1 90,000 GFA80,729 sq. ft.Per sq. ft GFA $ 2 26$ 2 26$ 2 25$ 2 23$ 2 12$ 2 08$ 2 21$ 2 10$ 2 07$ 2 08$ 2 05$ 2 07$ 2 07 $ Change vs. Scenario 1 -$ - $ ( 137,000)$ ( 311,000)$ (1,155,000)$ (1,458,000)$ ( 449,000)$ (1,292,000)$ (1,596,000)$ (1,467,000)$ (1,770,000)$ (1,605,000)$ (1,908,000) % Change vs. Scenario 1 -0%-1%-2%-6%-8%-2%-7%-9%-8%-10%-9%-10% Greenfield Southwest Kitchener - High Rise Residential Site Area53,820 sq. ft.Total Land Value$ ( 9,264,000)$ ( 9,405,000)$ ( 10,272,000)$ ( 13,081,000)$ ( 14,150,000)$ ( 15,218,000)$ ( 13,948,000)$ ( 15,014,000)$ ( 16,083,000)$ ( 17,819,000)$ ( 19,055,000)$ ( 18,683,000)$ ( 20,031,000) Unit Count245 unitsPer Unit $ ( 38,000)$ ( 38,000)$ ( 42,000)$ ( 53,000)$ ( 58,000)$ ( 62,000)$ ( 57,000)$ ( 61,000)$ ( 66,000)$ ( 73,000)$ ( 78,000)$ ( 76,000)$ ( 76,000) GFA219,849 sq. ft.Per sq. ft GFA $ ( 42)$ ( 43)$ ( 47)$ ( 60)$ ( 64)$ ( 69)$ ( 63)$ ( 68)$ ( 73)$ ( 81)$ ( 87)$ ( 85)$ ( 85) $ Change vs. Scenario 1 -$ ( 141,000)$ (1,008,000)$ (3,817,000)$ (4,886,000)$ (5,954,000)$ (4,684,000)$ (5,750,000)$ (6,819,000)$ (8,555,000)$ (9,791,000)$ (9,419,000)$ ( 10,767,000) % Change vs. Scenario 1 --2%-11%-41%-53%-64%-51%-62%-74%-92%-106%-102%-116% Greenfield Southwest Kitchener - 4-Storey Apartment Site Area26,910 sq. ft.Total Land Value$ 2 ,435,000$ 2 ,435,000$ 2 ,386,000$ 2 ,223,000$ 2 ,146,000$ 2 ,115,000$ 2 ,174,000$ 2 ,096,000$ 2 ,065,000$ 1 ,934,000$ 1 ,903,000$ 1 ,885,000$ 1 ,854,000 Unit Count31 unitsPer Unit $ 7 8,000$ 7 8,000$ 7 7,000$ 7 2,000$ 6 9,000$ 6 8,000$ 7 0,000$ 6 8,000$ 6 7,000$ 6 2,000$ 6 1,000$ 6 1,000$ 6 1,000 GFA26,910 sq. ft.Per sq. ft GFA $ 9 0$ 9 0$ 8 9$ 8 3$ 8 0$ 7 9$ 8 1$ 7 8$ 7 7$ 7 2$ 7 1$ 7 0$ 7 0 $ Change vs. Scenario 1 -$ - $ (49,000)$ ( 212,000)$ ( 289,000)$ ( 320,000)$ ( 261,000)$ ( 339,000)$ ( 370,000)$ ( 501,000)$ ( 532,000)$ ( 550,000)$ ( 581,000) % Change vs. Scenario 1 -0%-2%-9%-12%-13%-11%-14%-15%-21%-22%-23%-24% Greenfield Southwest Kitchener - Stacked Townhouse Site Area107,639 sq. ft.Total Land Value$ 1 7,227,000$ 1 7,227,000$ 1 7,089,000$ 1 6,915,000$ 1 6,123,000$ 1 5,951,000$ 1 6,778,000$ 1 5,985,000$ 1 5,813,000$ 1 5,811,000$ 1 5,639,000$ 1 5,673,000$ 1 5,501,000 Unit Count88 unitsPer Unit $ 1 96,000$ 1 96,000$ 1 95,000$ 1 93,000$ 1 84,000$ 1 82,000$ 1 91,000$ 1 82,000$ 1 80,000$ 1 80,000$ 1 78,000$ 1 79,000$ 1 79,000 GFA80,729 sq. ft.Per sq. ft GFA $ 2 13$ 2 13$ 2 12$ 2 10$ 2 00$ 1 98$ 2 08$ 1 98$ 1 96$ 1 96$ 1 94$ 1 94$ 1 94 $ Change vs. Scenario 1 -$ - $ ( 138,000)$ ( 312,000)$ (1,104,000)$ (1,276,000)$ ( 449,000)$ (1,242,000)$ (1,414,000)$ (1,416,000)$ (1,588,000)$ (1,554,000)$ (1,726,000) % Change vs. Scenario 1 -0%-1%-2%-6%-7%-3%-7%-8%-8%-9%-9%-10% Negative land values suggest infeasible development conditions. Feasibility could be improved through reduced costs, increased revenues, adjustments to profit, or combination thereof. Residual land values must be compared to the value of potential acquisition sites. Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 35 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 17 Impact Analysis Results Summary Downtown - High Rise Residential Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area26,910 sq. ft.Condo Index Price$1,043 per sq. ft.IZ Ownership Index Price$350 per sq. ft Building Height30 storeys Retail Rent$30 per sq. ft. NNN IZ Affordable Rent (Rented Condo)$1,190 per unit per month Floor Space Index12.0 FSI Retail Cap Rate5.5%IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Residential Units407 units Profit Margin15%of revenue IZ Units20 units Residential GFA315,417 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Key Cost Inputs Retail GFA7,500 sq. ft.Above Grade Hard Costs$315 per sq. ft GCA Total GFA322,917 sq. ft.Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of BuildingCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development ChargesCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ UnitsNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside RequirementNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions)12345678910111213 Revenue (FV)$312.9$312.9$312.9$312.9$303.0$301.1$312.9$303.0$301.1$303.0$301.1$303.0$301.1 - Hard Costs (FV)$134.4$134.4$134.4$134.4$134.3$134.3$134.4$134.3$134.3$134.3$134.3$134.3$134.3 - Soft Costs (FV)$81.5$83.0$83.6$86.8$80.9$80.3$87.5$81.6$80.9$84.8$84.1$85.4$84.8 - Profit (FV)$46.9$46.9$46.9$46.9$45.4$45.2$46.9$45.4$45.2$45.4$45.2$45.4$45.2 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)$50.1$48.5$47.9$44.7$42.2$41.3$44.1$41.6$40.7$38.4$37.5$37.8$36.9 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)$32.3$31.3$30.9$28.8$27.3$26.7$28.5$26.9$26.3$24.8$24.2$24.4$23.8 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition-$1.0-$1.4-$3.5-$5.0-$5.6-$3.8-$5.4-$6.0-$7.5-$8.1-$7.9-$8.5 % Change-3%-4%-11%-15%-17%-12%-17%-19%-23%-25%-24%-26% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $35.0 $30.0 $25.0 $20.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) Urban Streetfront Retail $15.0 3-Storey Class B Office $10.0 Single Detached Homes $5.0 $0.0 12345678910111213 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 36 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 18 Impact Analysis Results Summary Central Neighbourhood - High Rise Residential Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area53,820 sq. ft.Condo Index Price$921 per sq. ft.IZ Ownership Index Price$350 per sq. ft Building Height25 storeys Retail Rent$25 per sq. ft. NNN IZ Affordable Rent (Rented Condo)$1,190 per unit per month Floor Space Index5.0 FSI Retail Cap Rate5.5%IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Residential Units311 units Profit Margin15%of revenue IZ Units16 units Residential GFA249,849 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Key Cost Inputs Retail GFA7,500 sq. ft.Above Grade Hard Costs$315 per sq. ft GCA Total GFA257,349 sq. ft.Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of BuildingCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development ChargesCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ UnitsNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside RequirementNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions)12345678910111213 Revenue (FV)$223.7$223.7$223.7$223.7$217.2$216.0$223.7$217.2$216.0$217.2$216.0$217.2$216.0 - Hard Costs (FV)$119.2$119.2$119.2$119.2$119.2$119.2$119.2$119.2$119.2$119.2$119.2$119.2$119.2 - Soft Costs (FV)$61.7$62.0$62.5$64.9$60.6$60.1$65.4$61.0$60.6$63.6$63.1$64.1$63.6 - Profit (FV)$33.6$33.6$33.6$33.6$32.6$32.4$33.6$32.6$32.4$32.6$32.4$32.6$32.4 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)$9.2$8.9$8.5$6.0$4.9$4.3$5.6$4.4$3.9$1.9$1.3$1.4$0.8 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)$6.2$6.0$5.7$4.0$3.3$2.9$3.7$3.0$2.6$1.2$0.9$0.9$0.5 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition-$0.2-$0.5-$2.1-$2.9-$3.3-$2.4-$3.2-$3.6-$4.9-$5.3-$5.3-$5.6 % Change-3%-8%-35%-47%-53%-40%-52%-58%-80%-86%-85%-91% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $18.0 $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) $10.0 Strip Retail $8.0 Semi-Detached Homes $6.0 Single Detached Homes $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 12345678910111213 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 37 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 19 Impact Analysis Results Summary Central Neighbourhood - 4-Storey Apartment Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area26,910 sq. ft.Condo Index Price$909 per sq. ft.IZ Ownership Index Price$350 per sq. ft Building Height4 storeys Retail Rent$25 per sq. ft. NNN IZ Affordable Rent (Rented Condo)$1,220 per unit per month Floor Space Index1.0 FSI Retail Cap Rate5.5%IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Residential Units31 units Profit Margin15%of revenue IZ Units2 units Residential GFA26,910 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Key Cost Inputs Retail GFA0 sq. ft.Above Grade Hard Costs$268 per sq. ft GCA Total GFA26,910 sq. ft.Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of BuildingCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development ChargesCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ UnitsNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside RequirementNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions)12345678910111213 Revenue (FV)$23.4$23.4$23.4$23.4$22.7$22.5$23.4$22.7$22.5$22.7$22.5$22.7$22.5 - Hard Costs (FV)$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4 - Soft Costs (FV)$5.8$5.8$5.8$6.1$5.6$5.6$6.1$5.7$5.6$5.9$5.9$6.0$5.9 - Profit (FV)$3.5$3.5$3.5$3.5$3.4$3.4$3.5$3.4$3.4$3.4$3.4$3.4$3.4 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)$4.7$4.7$4.6$4.4$4.2$4.1$4.3$4.2$4.1$3.9$3.9$3.9$3.8 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)$3.4$3.4$3.4$3.2$3.1$3.0$3.2$3.1$3.0$2.9$2.8$2.9$2.8 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition$0.0$0.0-$0.2-$0.3-$0.4-$0.2-$0.4-$0.4-$0.5-$0.6-$0.6-$0.6 % Change0%-1%-6%-10%-12%-7%-10%-13%-16%-18%-17%-19% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $18.0 $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) $10.0 Strip Retail $8.0 Semi-Detached Homes $6.0 Single Detached Homes $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 12345678910111213 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 38 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 20 Impact Analysis Results Summary Central Neighbourhood - Stacked Townhouse Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area10,764 sq. ft.Condo Index Price$918 per sq. ft.IZ Ownership Index Price$350 per sq. ft Building Height4 storeys Retail Rent$25 per sq. ft. NNN IZ Affordable Rent (Rented Condo)$1,334 per unit per month Floor Space Index1.0 FSI Retail Cap Rate5.5%IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Residential Units9 units Profit Margin15%of revenue IZ Units0 units Residential GFA8,073 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Key Cost Inputs Retail GFA0 sq. ft.Above Grade Hard Costs$213 per sq. ft GCA Total GFA8,073 sq. ft.Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of BuildingCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development ChargesCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ UnitsNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside RequirementNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions)12345678910111213 Revenue (FV)$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0 - Hard Costs (FV)$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4 - Soft Costs (FV)$1.8$1.8$1.9$1.9$1.8$1.8$1.9$1.9$1.9$1.9$1.9$1.9$1.9 - Profit (FV)$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)$2.6$2.6$2.6$2.6$2.6$2.6$2.5$2.6$2.6$2.6$2.6$2.5$2.5 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)$2.0$2.0$2.0$1.9$2.0$2.0$1.9$2.0$2.0$1.9$1.9$1.9$1.9 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0 % Change0%-1%-2%0%0%-2%-1%-1%-2%-2%-2%-2% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) Strip Retail $1.5 Semi-Detached Homes $1.0 Single Detached Homes $0.5 $0.0 12345678910111213 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 39 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 21 Impact Analysis Results Summary Fairway MTSA - High Rise Residential Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area53,820 sq. ft.Condo Index Price$846 per sq. ft.IZ Ownership Index Price$350 per sq. ft Building Height25 storeys Retail Rent$25 per sq. ft. NNN IZ Affordable Rent (Rented Condo)$1,220 per unit per month Floor Space Index4.0 FSI Retail Cap Rate5.5%IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Residential Units259 units Profit Margin15%of revenue IZ Units13 units Residential GFA224,774 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Key Cost Inputs Retail GFA7,500 sq. ft.Above Grade Hard Costs$315 per sq. ft GCA Total GFA232,274 sq. ft.Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of BuildingCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development ChargesCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ UnitsNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside RequirementNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions)12345678910111213 Revenue (FV)$183.3$183.3$183.3$183.3$178.2$176.8$183.3$178.2$176.8$178.2$176.8$178.2$176.8 - Hard Costs (FV)$107.0$107.0$107.0$107.0$107.0$107.0$107.0$107.0$107.0$107.0$107.0$107.0$107.0 - Soft Costs (FV)$53.6$53.7$54.3$56.2$52.8$52.4$56.9$53.4$53.0$55.3$54.9$55.9$55.6 - Profit (FV)$27.5$27.5$27.5$27.5$26.7$26.5$27.5$26.7$26.5$26.7$26.5$26.7$26.5 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)-$4.8-$4.9-$5.5-$7.5-$8.3-$9.1-$8.1-$8.9-$9.7-$10.8-$11.7-$11.4-$12.3 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)-$7.1-$7.3-$8.2-$11.1-$12.3-$13.5-$12.0-$13.2-$14.4-$16.1-$17.4-$17.0-$18.3 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition-$0.1-$1.0-$4.0-$5.1-$6.4-$4.9-$6.0-$7.3-$9.0-$10.2-$9.9-$11.2 % Change-2%-15%-56%-72%-89%-68%-84%-102%-126%-143%-138%-156% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) 12345678910111213 Power Centre -$5.0 Semi-Detached Homes -$10.0 Industrial -$15.0 -$20.0 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 40 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 22 Impact Analysis Results Summary Fairway MTSA - Stacked Townhouse Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area10,764 sq. ft.Condo Index Price$918 per sq. ft.IZ Ownership Index Price$350 per sq. ft Building Height4 storeys Retail Rent$25 per sq. ft. NNN IZ Affordable Rent (Rented Condo)$1,344 per unit per month Floor Space Index1.0 FSI Retail Cap Rate5.5%IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Residential Units9 units Profit Margin15%of revenue IZ Units0 units Residential GFA8,073 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Key Cost Inputs Retail GFA0 sq. ft.Above Grade Hard Costs$213 per sq. ft GCA Total GFA8,073 sq. ft.Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of BuildingCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development ChargesCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ UnitsNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside RequirementNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions)12345678910111213 Revenue (FV)$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0$8.0 - Hard Costs (FV)$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.4 - Soft Costs (FV)$1.9$1.9$1.9$2.0$1.9$1.9$2.0$1.9$1.9$2.0$2.0$2.0$2.0 - Profit (FV)$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2$1.2 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)$2.5$2.5$2.5$2.5$2.5$2.5$2.5$2.5$2.5$2.5$2.5$2.5$2.5 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)$1.9$1.9$1.9$1.8$1.9$1.9$1.8$1.9$1.9$1.8$1.8$1.8$1.8 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0 % Change0%-1%-2%0%0%-3%-1%-1%-2%-2%-3%-3% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) Strip Retail $1.0 Semi-Detached Homes Industrial $0.5 $0.0 12345678910111213 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 41 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 23 Impact Analysis Results Summary Old Suburban Neighbourhood - Stacked Townhouse Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area107,639 sq. ft.Condo Index Price$916 per sq. ft.IZ Ownership Index Price$350 per sq. ft Building Height4 storeys Retail Rent$20 per sq. ft. NNN IZ Affordable Rent (Rented Condo)$1,376 per unit per month Floor Space Index1.0 FSI Retail Cap Rate5.5%IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Residential Units88 units Profit Margin15%of revenue IZ Units4 units Residential GFA80,729 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Key Cost Inputs Retail GFA0 sq. ft.Above Grade Hard Costs$213 per sq. ft GCA Total GFA80,729 sq. ft.Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of BuildingCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development ChargesCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ UnitsNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside RequirementNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions)12345678910111213 Revenue (FV)$80.6$80.6$80.6$80.6$78.0$77.3$80.6$78.0$77.3$78.0$77.3$78.0$77.3 - Hard Costs (FV)$24.1$24.1$24.1$24.1$24.0$24.0$24.1$24.0$24.0$24.0$24.0$24.0$24.0 - Soft Costs (FV)$18.6$18.6$18.8$19.0$18.1$17.9$19.2$18.3$18.1$18.5$18.4$18.7$18.6 - Profit (FV)$12.1$12.1$12.1$12.1$11.7$11.6$12.1$11.7$11.6$11.7$11.6$11.7$11.6 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)$25.9$25.9$25.7$25.4$24.2$23.8$25.2$24.0$23.6$23.8$23.3$23.6$23.1 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)$18.3$18.3$18.1$18.0$17.1$16.8$17.8$17.0$16.7$16.8$16.5$16.7$16.4 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition$0.0-$0.1-$0.3-$1.2-$1.5-$0.4-$1.3-$1.6-$1.5-$1.8-$1.6-$1.9 % Change0%-1%-2%-6%-8%-2%-7%-9%-8%-10%-9%-10% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $35.0 $30.0 $25.0 $20.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) Semi-Detached Homes $15.0 Single Detached Homes $10.0 Strip Retail $5.0 $0.0 12345678910111213 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 42 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 24 Impact Analysis Results Summary Greenfield Southwest Kitchener - High Rise Residential Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area53,820 sq. ft.Condo Index Price$846 per sq. ft.IZ Ownership Index Price$350 per sq. ft Building Height18 storeys Retail Rent$20 per sq. ft. NNN IZ Affordable Rent (Rented Condo)$1,220 per unit per month Floor Space Index4.0 FSI Retail Cap Rate5.5%IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Residential Units245 units Profit Margin15%of revenue IZ Units12 units Residential GFA212,349 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Key Cost Inputs Retail GFA7,500 sq. ft.Above Grade Hard Costs$315 per sq. ft GCA Total GFA219,849 sq. ft.Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of BuildingCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development ChargesCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ UnitsNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside RequirementNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions)12345678910111213 Revenue (FV)$173.0$173.0$173.0$173.0$168.2$166.9$173.0$168.2$166.9$168.2$166.9$168.2$166.9 - Hard Costs (FV)$102.2$102.2$102.2$102.2$102.2$102.2$102.2$102.2$102.2$102.2$102.2$102.2$102.2 - Soft Costs (FV)$51.0$51.0$51.6$53.5$50.2$49.8$54.1$50.7$50.4$52.6$52.3$53.2$53.0 - Profit (FV)$25.9$25.9$25.9$25.9$25.2$25.0$25.9$25.2$25.0$25.2$25.0$25.2$25.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)-$6.1-$6.2-$6.8-$8.7-$9.4-$10.1-$9.2-$10.0-$10.7-$11.8-$12.7-$12.4-$13.3 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)-$9.3-$9.4-$10.3-$13.1-$14.2-$15.2-$13.9-$15.0-$16.1-$17.8-$19.1-$18.7-$20.0 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition-$0.1-$1.0-$3.8-$4.9-$6.0-$4.7-$5.7-$6.8-$8.6-$9.8-$9.4-$10.8 % Change-2%-11%-41%-53%-64%-51%-62%-74%-92%-106%-102%-116% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $0.0 12345678910111213 -$5.0 -$10.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) -$15.0 -$20.0 -$25.0 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 43 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 25 Impact Analysis Results Summary Greenfield Southwest Kitchener - 4-Storey Apartment Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area26,910 sq. ft.Condo Index Price$846 per sq. ft.IZ Ownership Index Price$350 per sq. ft Building Height4 storeys Retail Rent$20 per sq. ft. NNN IZ Affordable Rent (Rented Condo)$1,220 per unit per month Floor Space Index1.0 FSI Retail Cap Rate5.5%IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Residential Units31 units Profit Margin15%of revenue IZ Units2 units Residential GFA26,910 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Key Cost Inputs Retail GFA0 sq. ft.Above Grade Hard Costs$268 per sq. ft GCA Total GFA26,910 sq. ft.Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of BuildingCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development ChargesCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ UnitsNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside RequirementNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions)12345678910111213 Revenue (FV)$21.6$21.6$21.6$21.6$21.0$20.9$21.6$21.0$20.9$21.0$20.9$21.0$20.9 - Hard Costs (FV)$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4$9.4 - Soft Costs (FV)$5.6$5.6$5.7$5.9$5.5$5.4$6.0$5.6$5.5$5.8$5.7$5.8$5.8 - Profit (FV)$3.2$3.2$3.2$3.2$3.1$3.1$3.2$3.1$3.1$3.1$3.1$3.1$3.1 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)$3.3$3.3$3.3$3.0$2.9$2.9$3.0$2.9$2.8$2.6$2.6$2.6$2.5 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)$2.4$2.4$2.4$2.2$2.1$2.1$2.2$2.1$2.1$1.9$1.9$1.9$1.9 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition$0.0$0.0-$0.2-$0.3-$0.3-$0.3-$0.3-$0.4-$0.5-$0.5-$0.6-$0.6 % Change0%-2%-9%-12%-13%-11%-14%-15%-21%-22%-23%-24% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 12345678910111213 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 44 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 26 Impact Analysis Results Summary Greenfield Southwest Kitchener - Stacked Townhouse Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area107,639 sq. ft.Condo Index Price$891 per sq. ft.IZ Ownership Index Price$350 per sq. ft Building Height4 storeys Retail Rent$20 per sq. ft. NNN IZ Affordable Rent (Rented Condo)$1,376 per unit per month Floor Space Index1.0 FSI Retail Cap Rate5.5%IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Residential Units88 units Profit Margin15%of revenue IZ Units4 units Residential GFA80,729 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Key Cost Inputs Retail GFA0 sq. ft.Above Grade Hard Costs$213 per sq. ft GCA Total GFA80,729 sq. ft.Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios12345678910111213 Principle Tenure of BuildingCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium Section 37Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development ChargesCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Rented Rented Rented Rented Tenure of IZ UnitsNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZCondominiumNo IZCondominiumCondominiumCondominium CondominiumCondominiumCondominiumCondominium IZ Set Aside RequirementNo IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%5%No IZ5%5%5%5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions)12345678910111213 Revenue (FV)$78.4$78.4$78.4$78.4$76.0$75.5$78.4$76.0$75.5$76.0$75.5$76.0$75.5 - Hard Costs (FV)$24.1$24.1$24.1$24.1$24.0$24.0$24.1$24.0$24.0$24.0$24.0$24.0$24.0 - Soft Costs (FV)$18.2$18.2$18.4$18.6$17.8$17.6$18.8$18.0$17.8$18.2$18.0$18.4$18.2 - Profit (FV)$11.8$11.8$11.8$11.8$11.4$11.3$11.8$11.4$11.3$11.4$11.3$11.4$11.3 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)$24.4$24.4$24.2$24.0$22.8$22.5$23.8$22.6$22.3$22.3$22.1$22.1$21.9 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)$17.2$17.2$17.1$16.9$16.1$16.0$16.8$16.0$15.8$15.8$15.6$15.7$15.5 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition$0.0-$0.1-$0.3-$1.1-$1.3-$0.4-$1.2-$1.4-$1.4-$1.6-$1.6-$1.7 % Change0%-1%-2%-6%-7%-3%-7%-8%-8%-9%-9%-10% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $20.0 $18.0 $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $0.0 12345678910111213 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 45 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 Figure 27 Impact Analysis - Rental Model Results Downtown - High Rise Residential Building StatisticsKey Revenue InputsIZ Policy Parameters Site Area53,820 sq. ft.Avg. Rent at Stabilization$2,501 per unit per month IZ Affordable Rent$1,190 per unit per month Building Height25 storeys Operating Expense Ratio36%of GEI IZ Set Aside Requirement5%of total units Floor Space Index5.0 FSI Residential Capitalization Rate3.9%IZ Units16 units Residential Units311 units Retail Rent$25 per sq. ft. NNN Key Cost Inputs Residential GFA249,849 sq. ft.Retail Cap Rate5.5%Above Grade Hard Costs$315 per sq. ft GCA Retail GFA7,500 sq. ft.Profit Margin50 bps over cap rate Below Grade Hard Costs$230 per sq. ft. below grade area Total GFA257,349 sq. ft.Discount Rate7%per year Above Grade Structured Parking Costs$150 per sq. ft. structured parking area Policy Scenarios 123456789 Principle Tenure of Building RentalRentalRentalRentalRentalRentalRentalRentalRental Section 37 Current S. 37Proposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBCProposed CBC Development Charges Current DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC RateProposed DC RateCurrent DC RateProposed DC Rate Current CIL of Current CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Current CIL of Proposed CIL of Proposed CIL of CIL of Parkland Dedication Parkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland RateParkland Rate Tenure of IZ Units No IZNo IZNo IZNo IZRentalNo IZRentalRentalRental IZ Set Aside Requirement No IZNo IZNo IZNo IZ5%No IZ5%5%5% Development Budget ($ millions) 123456789 Revenue (FV)$180.3$180.3$180.3$180.3$174.3$180.3$174.3$174.3$174.3 - Hard Costs (FV)$134.4$134.4$134.4$134.4$134.3$134.4$134.3$134.3$134.3 - Soft Costs (FV)$58.7$58.9$59.6$63.5$58.8$64.2$59.6$63.4$64.1 - Profit (FV) - Included in Revenue$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (FV)-$12.9-$13.0-$13.7-$17.6-$18.9-$18.3-$19.6-$23.4-$24.2 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV)-$19.9-$20.2-$21.3-$27.3-$29.2-$28.4-$30.3-$36.3-$37.4 Impact of Policies on Budget for Land Acquisition-$0.2-$1.4-$7.3-$9.3-$8.5-$10.4-$16.4-$17.5 % Change-1%-7%-37%-47%-43%-52%-82%-88% Budget for Land Acquisition vs Acquisition Price of Representative Land Uses $20.0 $10.0 $0.0 123456789 -$10.0 Budget for Land Acquisition (PV) Urban Streetfront Retail -$20.0 3-Storey Class B Office -$30.0 Single Detached Homes -$40.0 -$50.0 Policy Scenario Proposed Municipal Charges and Fees for Residential Development Evaluation of Potential Impacts 46 City of Kitchener NBLC Docket 21-3553 4±´²³¤£  £µ¨²®±² ²¨­¢¤ ΐΘΖΕȁ Building LeBreton Economic Impact Study 47 The National Capital Commission NBLC Docket 19-3296 Attachment B - Development industry feedback on NBLC report The findings of the NBLC Report were presented to the Waterloo Region Kitchener Development Liaison Committee (KDLC) on April 13. Highlights of their feedback are: Capping Cash-in-lieu of parkland at the medium density land value could discourage medium density development and incent developers to skip over medium density development in favour of high rise and challenge missing middle housing in general. o Staff Commentary: a cap to high density developments is required as land values approach and exceed $10M per hectare. Uncapped per unit rates would range between $39,000 up to $86,000 per unit, far exceeding any comparator municipalities and severely impacting development. The cap counteracts distortions caused by the legislated parkland dedication rate. There was agreement with the principle that developer profits cannot be compressed, but that there are few instances where land value can be reduced in the real world with strong competition for development sites. Developers may respond by passing on costs via increasing unit prices and rents, forgoing or delaying projects, building smaller units and/or seeking rezoning for increased density. A transition period to the new fees are critical for on-going and planned developments. Increases can be accommodated in proforma modelling provided adequate notice and timing is in place. o Staff Commentary: transitions in park dedication have been adjusted based on developer feedback, with the intent to allow developments that are financially committed to continue under the previous park dedication regime (downtown exemption and current rates) with a 12-month sunset clause to encourage site activity. Ability to deliver larger family-sized units in high rise apartments will be further compromised Reductions in land values can have wide-ranging implications. For example, it can compromise the ability of long-term landholders to leverage lands to finance other projects. It is important to consider the impacts to project finances arising from delays in development approvals The findings of the NBLC Report were presented to IN8 developments on May 17. Highlights of feedback are: That the cumulative impact of fees could generally be absorbed in mid-market buildings Downtown through a combination of decreased competition for land and increased price leading to slower pre-sales and absorption of new supply The findings of the NBLC Report were presented to Momentum Developments on May 18. Highlights of feedback are: Recent softening of housing markets makes this a challenging time to add fees A housing slowdown is anticipated, its duration is unclear Inclusionary zoning impacts on proformas is significant Landowners may hold back sites rather than accepting lower land values. Gradual, long-term consistent application of this policy will be required see sites transact at lower prices Developers may respond to increased soft costs but compressing hard costs (e.g. more precast concrete, sacrificing architectural excellence) Paying cash-in-lieu of parkland at building permit rather than final site plan could help with cash flow