HomeMy WebLinkAboutDSD-2022-260 - Regional Official Plan Review - Draft Land Needs Assessment
Development Services Department www.kitchener.ca
REPORT TO: Special Council
DATE OF MEETING: May 30, 2022
SUBMITTED BY: Rosa Bustamante, Director of Planning, 519-741-2200 ext. 7319
PREPARED BY: Tim Donegani, Senior Planner, 519-741-2200 ext. 7067
WARD(S) INVOLVED: All
DATE OF REPORT: May 25, 2022
REPORT NO.: DSD-2022-260
SUBJECT: Regional Official Plan Review Draft Land Needs Assessment
RECOMMENDATION:
Assessment be formulated through Council deliberation on Report DSD-2022-260 and
provided to the Region of Waterloo for consideration.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
The purpose of this report is to summarize the most important implications of the three
Draft Land Needs Assessment
(LNA) for Kitchener so that Council can provide its comments to the Region. Individual
comments will be recorded as well as any joint positions on matters of interest to
Kitchener Council.
There are no direct financial implications from this report.
The Region has been conducting community engagement on their Official Plan Review
since 2019 through a variety of methods. Engagement on the draft LNA commenced in
early April.
This report supports the delivery of core services.
BACKGROUND:
In 2018 the Region of Waterloo commenced a review of their Official Plan (ROPR) to, among
other things,
Golden Horseshoe (AP2G), 2020. In March and August of 2021, staff presented aspects of
the ROPR to Kitchener Council. Since that time, the Region has tabled growth options and
a draft Land Needs Assessment (LNA) at Regional Council. This report presents highlights
of the draft LNA and key implications of it for Kitchener. The draft LNA determines the
amount of urban land required
employment growth to 2051 and must follow the prescribed provincial methodology.
The LNA was presented to Regional Council on April 12 2022 via Regional report #PDL-
CPL-11 and was further discussed at an All-Councils meeting on April 29.
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REPORT:
The draft LNA presents three options that vary the amount of residential growth throughout
the built-up area (BUA) (i.e.,intensification) and the amount and density of growthin the
designated greenfield area (DGA). All three options plan for a total of 923,000 people and
470,000 jobs across the Region by 2051. This report provides an overview of the growth
options that are currently being considered by the Region as outlined in the draft LNA only.
The Region has indicated that through their ongoing engagement process alternative growth
options are being presented that will be considered by Regional staff as appropriate.
Generally, growth option 1 meets the minimum intensification and Designated Greenfield
Area (DGA) density targets of AP2G, which require a minimum of 50 percent of residential
development occurring within the Built-Up Area (BUA) of the Region annually, and 50
residents . Planning for the minimum AP2G
targets would see a Regional intensification target below what is being achieved today (57
percent in 2014-2019) and 2,208 hectares of new lands added for urban uses to the DGA.
Through this option 192 hectares of land from the Southwest Kitchener Policy Area would
and the minimum intensification target would be 54 percent,
lower than the Council-adopted
from 2021-2031 (60 percent). This growth option would require planning for growth beyond
the countryside line within Waterloo Region.
Growth option 2 increases the Region-wide DGA target to 60 residents and jobs per
hectare and intensification target to 60 percent. Option 2 sees the need for 376 hectares of
new DGA land across the Region, none of which is currently allocated to Kitchener. Growth
intensification target for 2026-2031.Growth option 2 is advancing DGA density targets that
would see unplanned DGA lands in Kitchener approaching frequent/very frequent transit
supportive densities.
Growth option 3 maintains the same Regional intensification target of 60 percent but
increases the Region-wide DGA density target to 66 residents and jobs per hectare resulting
in no additional DGA lands needed to 2051 across the Region. Achieving the Region-wide
DGA densit
achieve an average density of almost 70 residents and jobs per hectare. This DGA density
target for Kitchener may be ambitious for unplanned areas given our current DGA density,
which is approximately 53 residents and jobs per hectare (including built, draft approved and
registered lots) and the amount of low-density housing forecast in Kitchener to 2051.
All three growth options require an additional 456-659 hectares of DGA land for employment
areas, none of which is planned to be allocated to Kitchener. Additionally, the DGA densities
for all three growth options are measured in accordance with requirements in AP2G and
include lands that are already developed, lands that are planned for development, and those
that are unplanned within the existing DGA as well as any new DGA lands proposed in each
option.
Table 1 provides a summary of the factors considered in the draft LNA by growth option and
implications of each for Kitchener. Footnotes provide current comparable figures where
available.
Table 1: Draft Land Needs Assessment Growth Options: Highlights for Kitchener
LNA factors Growth Option 1 Growth Option 2 Growth Option 3
Kitchener Population 368,500 410,700 417,500
1
2051
Kitchener Population 99,400 (+37%) 141,600 (+53%) 148,400 (+55%)
Growth 2021-2051
Kitchener share of 32% 46% 48%
Regional population
2
Growth
Kitchener Low 11,575 (30%) 8,660 (16%) 9,490 (16%)
Density Housing
3
Growth (2021-2051)
Kitchener Medium 5,820 (15%) 14,420 (26%) 15,095 (26%)
Density Housing
Growth (2021-2051)
Kitchener High 21,725 (56%) 32,215 (58%) 32,975 (57%)
Density Housing
Growth (2021-2051)
Kitchener Total 39,120 (100%) 55,295 (100%) 57,560 (100%)
Housing Growth
4
Kitchener Jobs 2051 167,900-170,700 167,900-170,700 167,900-170,700
Kitchener Job Growth 56,900-59,700 56,900-59,700 56,900-59,700
2021-2051 (34%-36%) (34%-36%) (34%-36%)
Region Wide 50% 60% 60%
5
Intensification Rate
Kitchener 54% 61% 59%
Intensification Rate
6
2022-2051
Region-wide 50 60 66
Designated residents+jobs/ha residents+jobs/ha residents+jobs/ha
Greenfield Area
Density
Kitchener Designated 55 66 69
Greenfield Area residents+jobs/ha residents+jobs/ha residents+jobs/ha
7
Density
Region-wide 2,208 ha 376 ha 0 ha
Additional Designated
Greenfield Area
8
(Community Area)
1
2021 Kitchener population was 269,100
2
2021 Kitchener share of regional population was 44%
3
2021 Kitchener housing split was 52% low density, 17% medium density and 31% high density
4
In 2021, Kitchener had 111,000 jobs. 37% of the regional total
5
Regionwide intensification rate for 2014-2019 was 57% according to Regional data
6
2016-2021 intensification was 56% in 2016-2021 and 46% 2011-2016 according to Kitchener data
7
According to Regional data, built portions of the DGA in Kitchener are built at 60 r+j/ha. Draft approved and
registered vacant lands are 53 r+j/ha
8
Regionwide DGA in the existing ROP for Community Area is 3,734 ha
LNA factors Growth Option 1 Growth Option 2 Growth Option 3
Kitchener Additional 192 ha0 ha0ha
Designated
Greenfield Area
9
(Community Area)
Region-wide 456-659 ha 456-659 ha 456-659 ha
Additional Designated
Greenfield Area
10
(Employment Area)
Kitchener Designated 0 ha 0 ha 0 ha
Greenfield Area
(Employment Area)
Kitchener is planned to receive nder growth
options 2 and 3
Growth options 1, 2, and 3 see Kitchener accommodating 40 percent, 46 percent, and 48
percent of regional population growth to 2051 respectively. Currently Kitchener
accommodates approximately 44 percent of the regional population which is more than the
planned growth for Kitchener under growth option 1.
Under growth options 2 and 3, the forecasted rate of housing growth is 1,845 and 1,920
units per year respectively. This is somewhat higher than the 1,655 average in 2016-2021
and 1,165 in 2011-2016. Much of this growth will occur in high density forms including
stacked townhouses, and apartments, broadly similar to trends of the last eight years.
Continued DGA growth is planned for Kitchener under all scenarios
The City currently has 1,732 hectares of DGA land as defined by the 2006 Growth Plan and
established through the previous ROP review. As of mid-2019,
consisted of 598 hectares of developed land, 611 hectares of land that was approved for
development but was unbuilt, and 523 hectares still in the planning stage (e.g. Dundee North
Secondary Plan) according to Regional data. To contribute to the DGA density target
of 66 residents and jobs per hectare in growth option 2, development in
lands that currently do not have planning approvals would need to be planned at a minimum
of 87 residents and jobs per hectare on average to compensate for built and approved plans
of less than 66 residents and jobs per hectare since 2006. Lands within the Rosenberg
Secondary Plan area are planned to an average density of 75 residents and jobs per
hectare.
Under all growth options, Kitchener will accommodate significant growth in low density
(single and semi-detached) housing units. A total of 30-
housing growth will be accommodated in Kitchener, more than any other lower-tier
municipality in the Region.
9
Existing Kitchener DGA for community area is 1,732 ha.
10
There are currently 1,072 ha of vacant employment land in the Region. 876 ha of this are in the DGA
Kitchener has a significant number of development applications in progress to
accommodate growth in the short to medium term
Kitchener has a significant number of Official Plan Amendments (OPAs), Zoning By-law
amendments (ZBAs), subdivisions (not yet approved) and site plans (final approval pending)
applications under review. These applications have the potential to provide short- and
medium-term growth of approximately 14,000 high density units, 5,900 low and medium
22
density units, 10,000 m of commercial floor space and 48,500 m of industrial floor space.
New DGA lands
The Region is forecast to accommodate significant growth over the next 30 years with
Kitchener is well positioned to
accommodate growth over the next 30 years, however any growth to be accommodated on
lands that have yet to receive planning approvals and potential new DGA lands, including
those proposed in growth option 1, requires careful planning and management (e.g., staging
or phasing of growth). Careful planning and management will ensure, among other things,
that the growth is fiscally and environmentally sound, can be planned as complete
sustainable communities, and is coordinated with the necessary infrastructure and servicing
to support the growth.
The proposed new DGA lands identified in Kitchener in growth option 1 comprise the
Southwest Kitchener Policy Area (SKPA) that straddles the headwaters of the Cedar and
Blair Creek subwatersheds. The Cedar Creek Subwatershed Study (2019) found that the
SKPA lands recharge the regional aquifer and a small portion directly recharge municipal
wells. Development would involve non-typical, costly, and complex stormwater solutions for
capturing and managing salt-laden runoff prior to discharge or infiltration. The Upper Blair
State of the Watershed Report (2020) found water quality and erosion concerns due to
recent development. Development within the Dundee North Secondary Plan Area and SKPA
will put further pressure on this cold-water stream. A consultant is working
behalf to determine high-level infrastructure and costs implications of developing within
SKPA.
Next Steps
The Regionof an amendment to the ROP to
conform with AP2G is currently as follows:
May 27 Deadline for public feedback on the draft LNA
June 15 Preferred growth option presented to Regional Council for endorsement and
the release of the draft ROP amendment
Mid July Open house and statutory public meeting for the ROP amendment
August 11 ROP amendment presented to Regional Council for decision
Fall 2022 Drafting of non AP2G-related ROP policies
At this time, staff intend to bring a report to the August Committee of Council on the ROP
amendment.
STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT:
This report supports the delivery of core services.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS:
Capital Budget The recommendation has no impact on the Capital Budget.
Operating Budget The recommendation has no impact on the Operating Budget.
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT:
INFORM
the Council / Committee meeting.
The Region has been conducting community engagement on the ROPR since 2019 through
a variety of methods such as online surveys, town halls, information meetings, webinars,
and technical, stakeholder, area municipal, and steering committees. Engagement on the
draft LNA commenced in early April and has included Q and A sessions, an online survey,
a public information meeting, an All-Councils meeting, meetings with the technical,
stakeholder, area municipal and steering committees, and a meeting with the Waterloo
Region Home Builders Association.
PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES:
DSD-2021-5 Regional Official Plan Review
DSD-2021-127 Regional Official Plan Review: Growth Scenarios
DSD-2021-160 Supplemental Report - Regional Official Plan Review: Growth
Scenarios
REVIEWED BY: Natalie Goss, Manager, Policy and Research
APPROVED BY: Justin Readman, General Manager Development Services