HomeMy WebLinkAboutINS-2022-486 - 2023 Natural Gas RatesStaff Report
Infrastructure Services Department www.kitchener.ca
REPORT TO: Finance and Corporate Services Committee
DATE OF MEETING: December 12, 2022
SUBMITTED BY: Greg St. Louis, Director, Gas & Water Utilities, 519-741-2600 ext. 4538
PREPARED BY: Khaled Abu-Eseifan, Manager, Gas Supply and Engineering, 519-741-
2600 ext. 4826
WARD(S) INVOLVED: All Wards
DATE OF REPORT: December 5, 2022
REPORT NO.: INS -2022-486
SUBJECT: 2023 Natural Gas Rates
RECOMMENDATION:
That the supply component of the natural gas rate be decreased to 20.85 cents per
cubic meter from 21.45 cents per cubic meter for system gas customers of Kitchener
Utilities effective January 1, 2023; and,
That Kitchener Utilities' natural gas variable and fixed delivery rates be approved as
proposed in report INS -2022-486 - Attachment A, for all Kitchener delivery customers
effective January 1, 2023; and further,
That the supply rate of natural gas be reviewed quarterly against market conditions and
necessary changes to be brought forward for Council approval.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
• The purpose of this report is to provide an update and recommendations for the natural gas
supply and delivery rates of Kitchener Utilities for 2023
• The key finding of this report is that the supply rate is recommended to decrease from 21.45
cents per cubic meter to 20.85 cents per cubic meter to respond to slightly lower market
prices in updated forecasts. The report also recommends increasing delivery rate
components as proposed in attachment A to cover various capital, operations and financial
requirements
• The financial implications to Kitchener Utilities residential customers will be approximately
$81 or 10% during 2023 over the 2022 natural gas rates
• This report supports the delivery of core services
BACKGROUND:
Kitchener Utilities (KU) is committed to delivering natural gas using a rate setting approach that
focuses on rate stability for our customers. We follow the Council endorsed Gas Purchase Policy
for the procurement of natural gas. The policy outlines how much of our natural gas portfolio can
be purchased in advance and on the spot market. It provides the ability to blend our natural gas
*** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. ***
Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance.
Page 107 of 135
rate with fixed and market price natural gas. The blending of fixed and market price natural gas
is used to reduce volatility in prices to keep rates stable for customers. It is also used to respond
to significant changes in market prices within a reasonable time frame. This is a key feature
which softens spikes in market prices and provides longer range rate stability while allowing KU
to respond to long term sharp market changes.
Other natural gas utilities, regulated by the Ontario Energy Board, purchase natural gas on the
market and adjust rates quarterly, due to the volatility of natural gas. This strategy provides rates
that are more reflective of market prices, but also includes more frequent rate fluctuations.
The natural gas market is impacted by the supply and demand; in the past few years, both of
the factors were balanced and predictable. However, recent events have changed that balance
and created uncertainty in the supply and demand trends. Events such as global disruption to
natural gas supply due to the war in Ukraine, extreme weather conditions and increased demand
for economic recovery have resulted in a volatile and increasing market prices. They also
increased the uncertainty in market forecasts, made forecasting much harder and increased the
margin of error in all forecasts and predictions.
Kitchener Utilities last natural gas supply rate increase was in August 2022 and the plan was to
review the prices more frequently due to the anticipated volatility in market prices. This report
aims to revise the rates based on updated market conditions and the requirements to deliver
safe and reliable natural gas for Kitchener Utilities customers. Kitchener Utilities is in a very good
storage position entering the heating season and the proposed changes aim to timely adjust
rates to reduce future impacts, avoid significant rate spikes and ensure reasonable rates are
maintained for longer periods of time.
REPORT:
Kitchener Utilities natural gas rates have two components: gas supply, and gas delivery. The
gas supply program is responsible for the purchase of the gas commodity and transportation of
natural gas to Kitchener and is a pass-through cost program. The delivery program is responsible
for delivery of natural gas to customers. This includes billing, meter reading, capital,
maintenance and operating costs of the distribution system.
The following are key highlights of this natural gas rate change report:
• Natural gas supply rate decrease for system gas customers;
• Delivery rate increases as proposed in Attachment A;
• An average residential customer will see an overall rate increase of approx. $81 or 10%,
for the period January 1 st, 2023 to December 31 st, 2023 with the proposed rate changes
Gas Supply:
The natural gas market prices usually fluctuate with supply, demand and weather factors.
Kitchener Utilities relies on its purchasing policy to create a blended portfolio of hedging (fixed
price contracts) and market price purchases. Along with the purchase policy, KU relies on the
stabilization reserve to absorb sudden price increases and soften rate spikes. The recent
increase in market prices was significant and risked driving the stabilization reserve into the
negative. Given the uncertainty and high volatility in market prices, a rate increase in August of
2022 was needed to ensure sufficient funding was available and to maintain the stabilization
reserve within the approved limits, by the end of 2022. Although gas prices increased
Page 108 of 135
significantly in recent months, the increase was below forecasts. Additionally, KU used a
measured approach to secure reasonably priced deals for its 2022 requirements. This helped
KU in keeping the stabilization reserve at a very good balance at the end of 2022.
As the high prices, high volatility and uncertainty are expected to continue into 2023, staff
recommend keeping the stabilization reserve balance at the maximum limit, continue monitoring
market conditions and revise the supply rate as needed. Staff also recommend reducing the
supply rate from 21.45 cents per cubic meter to 20.85 cents per cubic meter effective January
1St, 2023 to reflect the fact that actual market prices were slightly lower than forecasts.
Figure 1 below shows historical and forecasted supply rate changes for Kitchener Utilities
compared with market prices and Enbridge rates. KU's gas supply rate continues to be
significantly lower that Enbridge's gas supply rate for 2023. The forward market prices are
provided by KU's consultants. These consultants are natural gas subject matter experts who are
hired to provide natural gas market analysis, forecasts, gas models and assist in purchasing
KU's natural gas portfolio.
Figure 1: Natural gas supply rates comparison
Gas Delivery:
There are two components to the delivery charges- a daily fixed charge, and a variable rate.
There are four Delivery Rate Groups- M1, M2, M4 and M5, (complete definitions are in
Attachment A). These rates service customers of different volumetric requirements. The
Page 109 of 135
NG Market Price vs KU Gas Rate vs Enbridge Gas Rate
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Gas Delivery:
There are two components to the delivery charges- a daily fixed charge, and a variable rate.
There are four Delivery Rate Groups- M1, M2, M4 and M5, (complete definitions are in
Attachment A). These rates service customers of different volumetric requirements. The
Page 109 of 135
proposed delivery components of the natural gas rates starting January 1St, 2023 are shown in
Attachment A. The key drivers of delivery rate changes are the following:
• Additional resources that are needed to meet new regulatory requirements
• Critically low delivery stabilization reserve that need to be increased to mitigate financial
risks to the gas utility and its customers
• Inflationary increases to operating and capital expenditures
Comparison with Enbridge:
For an average system gas residential (Ml) customer, the total KU gas bill cost in 2022 was
14% lower than the cost of similar customer in Enbridge franchise area. It is expected that the
total gas cost for Kitchener Utilities customers will continue to be lower than Enbridge in 2023
as their gas supply rate is forecasted to remain high although it has not been determined yet.
STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT:
This report supports the delivery of core services.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS:
For an average system gas residential (M1) customer consuming 2,000 cubic meters annually,
the proposed natural gas rates result in an increase to the overall annual bill by approx. $81 for
the period January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023. This excludes the Federal Carbon Charge.
The increase in delivery rates is necessary to mitigate financial risks to the delivery stabilization
reserve. The stabilization reserve balance is forecasted to be below the 2022 budget estimate.
This reserve is needed to absorb variances in revenues due to weather factors, (colder weather
increases revenue and warmer weather decreases revenue) and to maintain rate stability
through out the year. The 5 -year operating budget projection for gas delivery is presented in
Attachment B.
The natural gas supply stabilization reserve balance is forecasted to be higher than the 2022
budget estimate and therefore, a decrease in the supply rate intends to keep the balance towards
the maximum benchmark of the reserve. The supply stabilization reserve is needed to absorb
fluctuations in market prices and soften rate spikes. Due to uncertainty and volatility of gas
markets, this reserve needs to be at the maximum balance to avoid rate shock for KU customers.
The 5 -year operating budget projection for gas supply is presented in attachment C.
Kitchener Utilities supports the Waterloo Region Energy Assistance Program. This program
offers support to customers facing challenges paying their utility bills. The program is
administered by the Region of Waterloo and offers support for both electricity and natural gas
bills.
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT:
INFORM - Kitchener Utilities will work with the Corporate Communications and Marketing
Division to ensure that media outlets are provided with a press release to inform customers. An
insert will be distributed with utility bills along with posting information on the Kitchener Utilities'
and City websites. An on -bill message will also appear in January 2023 natural gas bills.
This report has been posted to the City's website with the agenda in advance of the council /
committee meeting.
Page 110 of 135
PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES:
• INS -2021-13 2022 Natural Gas Rates
• INS -2022-282 August 2022 Gas Supply Rate Change
APPROVED BY: Denise McGoldrick, General Manager Infrastructure Services.
ATTACHMENTS:
Attachment A — Natural Gas Rates
Attachment B — 5 -year operating budget projection — Gas Delivery
Attachment C — 5 -year operating budget projection — Gas Supply
Page 111 of 135
ATTACHMENT A
CORPORATION OF THE CITY OF KITCHENER
NATURAL GAS
GENERAL SERVICE RATE M1
Applicability
To residential and non -contract commercial and industrial customers that consume less than 50,000 m3 per year.
Rate
Daily Fixed Charge
$ .7600
SUPPLY COMMODITY VARIABLE DELIVERY NET RATE
¢/m3 ¢/m3 ¢/m3
20.8500 9.2371 30.0871
Meter Readings
Gas consumption by each customer under this rate schedule shall be determined by periodic meter readings, provided that in
circumstances beyond the control of the Corporation, such as strikes or non -access to a meter, The Corporation may estimate
the monthly consumption between the meter readings and render a monthly bill to the customer.
Effective
January 1, 2023
Policv Relating to Terms of Service
1) Gas purchased under this rate schedule shall not be resold, directly or indirectly by the customer, unless resold as "motor
vehicle fuel gas", as that term is defined in Ontario Regulation 805/82.
2) Customers who temporarily discontinue service during any twelve consecutive months without payment of the monthly
fixed charge for the months in which the gas is temporarily disconnected shall pay for disconnection and reconnection.
Page 112 of 135
CORPORATION OF THE CITY OF KITCHENER
NATURAL GAS
GENERAL SERVICE RATE - M2
Applicability
To residential and non -contract commercial and industrial customers that consume 50,000 m3 and more per year.
Rate
Daily Fixed Charge
And
$2.4500
SUPPLY COMMODITY VARIABLE DELIVERY NET RATE
RATE
¢/m3 ¢/m3 ¢/m3
20.8500 8.0023 28.8523
Meter Readings
Gas consumption by each customer under this rate schedule shall be determined by periodic meter readings, provided that in
circumstances beyond the control of the Corporation, such as strikes or non -access to a meter, The Corporation may estimate
the monthly consumption between the meter readings and render a monthly bill to the customer.
Effective
January 1, 2023
Policy Relating to Terms of Service
2) Gas purchased under this rate schedule shall not be resold, directly or indirectly by the customer, unless resold as "motor
vehicle fuel gas", as that term is defined in Ontario Regulation 805/82.
3) Customers who temporarily discontinue service during any twelve consecutive months without payment of the monthly
fixed charge for the months in which the gas is temporarily disconnected shall pay for disconnection and reconnection.
Page 113 of 135
CORPORATION OF THE CITY OF KITCHENER
NATURAL GAS
FIRM INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL CONTRACT RATE - M4
Applicability
To a customer who enters into a contract for a minimum term of one year, that specifies a daily contracted demand (CD) as follows:
Between 2,400 m3 and 140,870 m3.
Rate
1. Bills will be rendered monthly and shall be the total of:
i) A Fixed Deman(
ii) A Variable Deli
I Charge:
First 8,450 m3 of the daily contracted demand, 63.9000 ¢/m3
Next 19,700 m3 of the daily contracted demand, 27.8000 ¢/m3
All m3 over 28,150m3 of the daily contracted demand, 16.8000 ¢/m3
�cry Charge (incl. storage):
First 422,250 m3 delivered per month 2.0000 ¢/m3
Next volume equal to 15 days use of CD 2.0000 ¢/m3
Remainder of volumes delivered in the month 2.0000 ¢/m3
iii) A Monthly Gas Supply Char e.
Supply Commodity 20.8500 O/m3
2. Over -run Charge
Authorized overrun gas is available provided that it is authorized by the Corporation in advance. The Corporation will not
unreasonably withhold authorization. Overrun means gas taken on any day in excess of 103% of contracted daily demand.
Authorized overrun will be available April l through October 31, and will be paid for at the rate of 4.5813 ¢/m3 for the delivery
and, if applicable, the federal carbon charge and the total gas supply rate of 20.85 ¢/m3.
Unauthorized overrun in any month shall be paid for at the rate of 9.2371 ¢/m3 for the delivery and, if applicable, the federal
carbon charge and the total gas supply charge for system -supplied volumes at the rate of 20.85 ¢/m3.
3. Minimum Annual Charge
In each contract year, the customer shall purchase from the Corporation or pay for a minimum volume of gas equivalent to
150 days use of contracted demand. Overrun gas volumes will not contribute to the minimum volume. In the event that the
customer shall not take such minimum volume, the customer shall pay an amount equal to the deficiency from the minimum
volume times a rate of 2.497 ¢/m3, and if applicable, a total gas supply charge of 20.85 ¢/m3.
In the event that the contract period exceeds one year, the annual minimum volume will be pro -rated for any part year.
Effective
January 1, 2023
Policy Relating to Terms of Service
Gas purchased under this rate shall not be resold, directly or indirectly by the customer.
Page 114 of 135
CORPORATION OF THE CITY OF KITCHENER
NATURAL GAS
INTERRUPTIBLE INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL CONTRACT RATE - M5
Applicability
To a Customer who:
A) Enters into a contract for a minimum term of one year that specifies a daily contracted demand between 2,400 m3 and 140,870
m3 inclusive and,
B) Has an alternate fuel supply and combustion system available.
Rate
1. The price of all gas delivered shall be determined on the basis of the following schedules:
i) Monthly Fixed Charge $750.00
a. and
ii) Delivery Charge (incl. storage):
Dailv Contracted Demand Level (CD
2,400 m3 < CD <
17,000 m3
3.5539 ¢/m3
17,000 m3 < CD <
30,000 m3
2.7611 ¢/m3
30,000 m3 < CD <
50,000 m3
2.6859 ¢/m3
50,000 m3 < CD <
70,000 m3
2.6332 ¢/m3
70,000 m3 < CD <
100,000 m3
2.5955 ¢/m3
100,000 m3 < CD <
140,870 m3
2.5584 ¢/m3
iii) A Monthly Gas Supply Charge:
Supply Commodity 20.85000 ¢/m3
2. Over -run Charge
Overrun gas is available provided that it is authorized by the Corporation in advance. The Corporation will not unreasonably
withhold authorization. Overrun means gas taken on any day in excess of 105% of contracted daily demand.
Unauthorized overrun gas taken in any month shall be paid for at the rate of 9.2371 ¢/m3 for the delivery and, if applicable,
the federal carbon charge and the total gas supply charge for system -supplied volumes at the rate of 20.85 ¢/m3.
Unauthorized Overrun Non -Compliance Rate:
Unauthorized overrun gas taken any month during a period when a notice of interruption is in effect shall be paid for at the
rate of 234.72 ¢/m3 ($60 per GJ) for the delivery.
3. Minimum Annual Charge
In each contract year, the customer shall purchase from the Corporation or pay for a minimum volume of gas equivalent to
150 days use of contracted demand. Overrun volumes will not contribute to the minimum volume. In the event that the
customer shall not take such minimum volume, the customer shall pay an amount equal to the deficiency from the minimum
volume multiplied by 4.0299 ¢/m3 for the delivery charge and if applicable, a gas supply charge of 20.85 ¢/m3.
Effective
January 1, 2023
Policy Relating to Terms of Reference
Gas purchased under this rate shall not be resold, directly or indirectly by the customer.
Page 115 of 135
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