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HomeMy WebLinkAboutDSD-2022-410 - Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2022 Annual Monitoring Report Development Services Department www.kitchener.ca REPORT TO: Planning and Strategic Initiatives Committee DATE OF MEETING: December 12, 2022 SUBMITTED BY: Garett Stevenson, Interim Director of Planning, 519-741-2200 ext. 7070 PREPARED BY: Gaurang Khandelwal, Planner (Policy), 519-741-2200 ext. 7611 Tim Donegani, Senior Planner, 519-741-2200 ext. 7067 WARD(S) INVOLVED: ALL DATE OF REPORT: November 24, 2022 REPORT NO.: DSD-2022-410 SUBJECT: Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2022 Annual Monitoring Report RECOMMENDATION: THAT Report DSD-2022-410 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2022 Annual Monitoring Report be submitted to the Regional Municipality of Waterloo in fulfillment of Clause 22.1 of the Administrative Agreement between the City of Kitchener and the Region Municipality of Waterloo regarding delegated approval authority. REPORT HIGHLIGHTS: The purpose of this report is to highlight key growth trends in the City over the past year, track the developable land supply and measure progress against density and intensification targets. The key findings of this report are that: o growth in Kitchener remained strong in the last year with 3,036 dwelling units created. o a broad range of housing types have been developed with 63% as multiple dwelling types (67% of multiple dwelling types were in the form of low to mid rise buildings), 5% as townhouses, and 32% in single-detached, semi-detached, and duplex dwelling types. o Kitchener has again exceeded its minimum annual intensification target with 51% of residential growth within the Built-up area in 2021. o development opportunities in both the Designated Greenfield Area and through intensification are more than sufficient to accommodate growth to 2031 and beyond. in advance of the council / committee meeting. In addition, the monitoring report information will be presented to the Kitchener Developers Liaison Committee in December. There are no financial implications arising from this report. This report supports the delivery of core services. *** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. *** Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance. BACKGROUND: The purpose of this report is to provide Committee and Council with the Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2022 Annual Monitoring Report (Monitoring Report). The Monitoring Report is an action item of the 2009 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy (KGMS), which requires tracking of the general supply of land and the achievement of intensification and density targets on an annual basis. REPORT: The KGMS provides a long-term framework for planning where and how future residential and employment growth should occur in Kitchener. To ensure that growth contributes positively to quality of life, the KGMS coordinates the provision of infrastructure and services with new development. The 2009 KGMS goals and actions support the Provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan) and Regional Growth Management Strategy (RGMS). The KGMS introduced a number of goals, one of which was to develop and facilitate an ongoing growth management program to manage growth-related change in an effective and co-ordinated manner (Goal 6). One of the action items of this goal is to prepare an annual monitoring report to track the supply of development opportunities and the achievement of intensification and density targets. This is also a requirement of the Growth Plan and the Regional Official Plan. Monitoring reports have been prepared annually since 2010. Highlights of the 2022 Monitoring Report include: Residential Development Rates in 2021 The number of new dwelling units created in 2021 (3,036) was the third highest figure on record, slightly less than the 2020 and 2019 figures. 63% of the new residential units were in the form of multiple dwellings, a decrease compared to that in 2020 (66%) and 2019 (75%). 639 multiple dwelling units created in 2021 were within 4 tall buildings (9 storeys or higher), representing about 21% of the total new units created. The rest of the multiple dwelling units created (67%) were either additions to existing buildings or in the form of low to mid rise buildings. 357 duplex dwelling units in single-detached, 19 duplex dwelling units in semi- detached, and 7 duplex dwelling units in townhouse dwelling types were created in 2021, a continued increase from the historical averages. Urban Growth Centre (UGC) Density The estimated density of the Urban Growth Centre (UGC) is 218 residents and jobs per hectare. Kitchener continues to be well on its way to achieving the Official Plan target of 225 residents and jobs per hectare by 2031. Built Up Area and Designated Greenfield Area Development Intensification level (new residential construction that occurs within the Built-up Area) is seeing a declining trend and has decreased to 51% over the past year. The minimum intensification target of 45% needs to be met or exceeded every year. The -year average intensification level is 59%, which continues to be an indication that the City is on track to contribute towards, and in some years exceed, the Region- wide minimum intensification target. Building permits issued for new residential units between June2021and June 2022 within the Designated Greenfield Area continue to provide a varied and balanced supply of dwelling types. The number of multiple dwelling building permits issued in the Built-Up Area far exceed those that that were issued within the Designated Greenfield Area. This is expected as higher density multiple dwellings are focused in intensification areas (e.g., Major Transit Station Areas, nodes, and corridors). 11 permits were issued for Detached Additional Dwelling Units (also referred to as backyard homes) in June 2021-June 2022 reporting period. Capacity for Growth The City continues to have the potential to accommodate its current allocated population and employment growth within its urban area. Increases in zoned capacity for both residential units and non-residential floor space were realized this year as the first stage of the Comprehensive Review of the Zoning By-law is now in full force and effect. Future program, including the strategy, framework and dynamic tracking and monitoring system, will be updated in future years to reflect recent changes to provincial legislation; recent updates to the and next Official Plan review which will follow. Bill 23, More Homes Built Faster Act, and other actions idented through the Housing Supply Action Plan 2022-2023 have the potential to affect the future of the Growth Management program if adopted. Bill 23 would see lower-tier municipalities take on the role of growth allocation and management. Additionally, the Province has signalled that changes to the Provincial Policy Statement and the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe are forthcoming which may require further Official Plan updates. Any changes that come into force will inform a revised growth management program. STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT: This report supports the delivery of core services. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: Capital Budget The recommendation has no impact on the Capital Budget. Operating Budget The recommendation has no impact on the Operating Budget. COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT: INFORM the council / committee meeting. In addition, monitoring report information will be presented to the Kitchener Developers Liaison Committee in December. PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES: DSD-2021-164 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2021 Annual Monitoring Report DSD-19-206 Kitchener Growth Management Plan 2019-2021 DTS-09-011 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2010-2021 Annual Monitoring Reports and Biennial Plans available at https://www.kitchener.ca/en/strategic-plans-and-projects/growth-management.aspx REVIEWED BY: Natalie Goss, Manager, Policy and Research APPROVED BY: Justin Readman, General Manager, Development Services ATTACHMENTS: Attachment A Kitchener Growth Management Strategy (KGMS) Annual Monitoring Report 2022 Attachment A to DSD-2022-410 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2022 Annual Monitoring Report November 24, 2022 Executive Summary In 2009, Kitchener approved its Growth Management Strategy (KGMS) in support of the Cityexpected and planned to accommodate a relatively significant amount of residential and employment growth by 2031. The City is also mandated by the Province to achieve certain numerical targets and other planning objectives. Kitchener tracks and monitors specific growth data in a dynamic manner. A snapshot of the data is contained within this report. The results of the 2022 growth management data continue to be encouraging. The number of residents and jobs per hectare (RJs/ha) in the Urban Growth Centre (Downtown) is 218 RJs/ha, surpassing the provincially mandated minimum target of 200 RJs/ha by 2031, and approaching the higher Official Plan minimum target of 225 RJs/ha by 203151% and 5-year average intensification level of 59% exceed the Regional intensification target (45%). In 2021, building permits were issued for a total of 3,036 new residential units a decrease from 2020 but higher than historical averages and the third highest figure on record. 63% of new residential units developed in 2021 were in the form of multiple dwellings - a decrease compared to that in 2020 (66%) and 2019 (75%). Development of additional dwelling units (e.g. duplex dwelling units) has seen a considerable increase compared to historical averages. It is anticipated t framework and dynamic tracking and monitoring system, will be updated in future years to reflect: recent changes to provincial legislation; recent updates to the follow. 1.Introduction In 2009, Kitchener approved its Growth Management Strategy (KGMS). The KGMS provides a framework for planning where and how future residential and employment growth can be accommodated in Kitchener while positively contributing to quality of life. The goals and actions outlined in the KGMS support the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006) and the Regional Growth Management Strategy (RGMS). The KGMS introduced an ongoing growth management program to manage growth-related change in an effective and coordinated manner (Goal 6). One of the action items of this goal is to prepare an Annual Growth Management Monitoring Report to track the supply of development opportunities, and the achievement of intensification and density targets. Monitoring Reports have been prepared and presented to Council and the development industry annually since 2010. The Monitoring Report provides an update on the progress of implementing the KGMS action items along with Provincial and Regional growth plans. The primary purpose of the Monitoring Report is to update data from the KGMS Background Study: Current Baseline Report (Parts 6-9) annually. It presents a summary of recent residential development rates and updates the potential capacity to accommodate growth both within the Built-up Area (intensification areas) and in the Designated Greenfield Area. The original data from the KGMS Background Study was as of June 16, 2008 (with some of the existing residential data at the time coming from the 2006 Census). The Monitoring Report also provides a summary of development applications that have been received and those that have been approved in 2021. This Monitoring Report captures a snapshot of all data (with the exception of Sections 2 and 3) as of June 16, 2022 (the anniversary date of the 2006 Growth Plan). 2.Delegated Approval Authority Summary for 2021 This section provides a summary of the number of plans of subdivision, plans of condominium, part-lot control applications, and consent applications received and the number and type of dwelling units (herein after referred to as units) approved through these applications in 2021. Reporting on those approvals is a requirement of an agreement between the City of Kitchener and the Region of Waterloo regarding delegated approval authority. Figure 1 includes the number of applications received, approved and registered in 2021. Figure 1: 2021 Development Applications Received, Approved and Registered Combination of Multiple Combination of Singles, Residential, Cluster Application # of Semis or Street Fronting Townhouse Units, Type Applications Townhouse Units Commercial and Mixed Use Developments Received Applications Subdivision 1 72 0 Condominium 17 42 1841 Part Lot Control 4 Consents 51 Total 73 114 1841 Approved Lots/Units Subdivision 0 0 0 Condominium 17 56 1,725 Part Lot Control 3 189 0 Consents 46 39 332 Total 66 284 2,057 Registered Lots/Units Subdivision 6 1,036 333 Condominium 10 29 841 Total 16 1,065 1,174 0 4* 7251 870189 371 Total 1,3691,8831,781 7 000 CT 333841332 2021 1,8411,725 Multiple/ 4* 51 0 39 72425629 189 SST 1,036 registered from 201 00 6* 49 86 661569569565184 Total - 00 5520 CT 555555564 2020 Multiple/ 6* 49 001 141466 184 606 SST 0 7* 7080 71 536632122 Total 2,8181,333 00 1236 CT 746422632 2019 2,818 Multiple/ 7* 80 000 5835 122 587114 SST 9 18 66 13* 680688389655136 Total 2,635 04 75 CT 729171594389641 2018 Multiple, Cluster Townhouse Dwelling Multiple/ 66 - 13* 90 14 61 9414 509 SST 1,906 0 32 19*33* 371 284283603695532 Total 000 6 CT 222583675526 2017 2021 Subdivision, Condominium, Part Lot Control, and Consent Applications Received, Approved and Registered - Multiple/ 19*33* 06 62202023 371 283 SST Figure 2: 2017 . 21 Single, Semi, Street Townhouse Dwelling; Multiple/CT - Subdivision Figure 2 compares the number of subdivision, condominium, part lot control, and consent applications received, approved and to 20 Application Status SubdivisionsReceivedDraft ApprovedRegisteredCondominiumsReceivedDraft ApprovedRegisteredPart Lot ControlReceivedApprovedConsentsReceivedApprovedSST *Total number of applications received 3. Residential Development Rates This section provides an overview of past development rates in the City through the examination of building permits for new residential units by dwelling type. Figure 3: Residential Development Rates New Residential Dwelling Units Created Through Building Permit* 5-year 10-year 20-year Dwelling Type 2020 2021 Average Average Average (2017-2021) (2012-2021) (2002-2021) 1 Single Detached 605 549 419 479 631 1,2 Semi-Detached 61 53 37 31 55 3 Duplex 343 357 232 134 96 2 Townhouses 276 154 217 203 195 4 Multiple Dwellings 2,518 1,918 1,743 1,298 890 5 Detached ADUs - 5 - - - Total New Units 3,803 3,036 2,648 2,145 1,867 1 Gross new units (conversion/additions included, demolitions not subtracted) 2 Includes duplex 3 Includes additions that create new units 4 Includes additions that create new units and stacked townhouses 5 Detached ADUs have not been reported in previous years In 2021, building permits were issued for a total of 3,036 new residential units. This is a decrease from 2020, which saw the highest number of building permits in the last 30 years. However, the number of residential building permits issued in 2021 are the third highest on record. There has been a steady increase in the development of duplex dwelling units in the last 5 years. Although majority of new residential units in 2021 were in the form of multiple dwelling (63%), this is a decrease from 2020 (66%) as well as 2019 (75%). 639 multiple dwelling units created in 2021 were within 4 tall buildings (9 storeys or higher), representing about 21% of the total new units created. The rest of the multiple dwelling units created were either additions to existing or new low to mid rise buildings, representing about 42% of the total new units created. New mid-rise multiple dwelling construction 4. Intensification Level the region-wide target of a minimum of 45% of all new residential development to be located within the Built-up Area (BUA). Map 1 below illustr) and in 2006). It also shows the location of new units created within these areas between June 16, 2021 and June 15, 2022. The minimum intensification target is subject to change through the Regions Official Plan review which is now awaiting a decision by the Province. Map 1 Current Benchmarks Intesification Levels The most recent measures of new residential units by type in the BUA and DGA are indicated in Figure 4 below. Figure 4: Intensification and Designated Greenfield Area Development Levels (June 16/21- June 15/22) Designated Greenfield Area Built-Up Area Dwelling Type (New Residential Units) (New Residential Units) Total Single Detached 440 30 470 Semi-Detached* 8 55 63 Duplex 167 261 428 Street Townhouses* 203 2 205 Cluster Townhouses 6 39 45 Multiple Dwellings** 553 1,051 1,604 Detached ADUs 0 11 11 1,377 1,449 2826 Total Percent of Total 49% 51% 100% ΫLƓĭƌǒķĻƭ ķǒƦƌĻǣ ΫΫLƓĭƌǒķĻƭ ķǞĻƌƌźƓŭ ǒƓźƷƭ ǞźƷŷźƓ ƒźǣĻķ ǒƭĻ ĬǒźƌķźƓŭƭ The intensification level over the past year (new residential construction that occurs within the Built-up Area) was 51%. This continues to indicate that the City is on track to contribute towards, and in some years exceed, the minimum region-wide intensification target of 45%. As we have seen in recent years, when there is a substantial number of multiple dwelling units created in the Built-Up Aer greenfield areas are opening up in the coming years, it is expected that the intensification rate may be lower in future years. Current Greenfield Subdivision under construction Figure 5 illustrates the historic intensification levels, as per the Provincial Built Boundary Line. Figure 5: Intensification Level (2001 to present) 80 70 60 ) % 50 ( l e v e 40 L n o i 30 t a c i f i 20 s n e t n I 10 0 Year , 2020, 2018) years with respect to the BUA intensification level as the timing of 2-3 multiple dwelling developments can affect the reported rate in a given year for a municipality the size of Kitchener. A multi-year average provides a better understanding, for growth monitoring purposes, of whether the City is on track to achieving the required intensification level. Figure 6 below illustrates the 5-year average intensification levels from June 2007 to June 2022. Figure 6: 5 Year Average Intensification Levels Year 5 Year Average Intensification Level (%) June 2007 - June 2012 39 June 2012 - June 2017 48 June 2017 - June 2022 59 The 5-year average Intensification Level (June 2017 June 2022) is now at 59% with the 10-year average (2012-2022) at 53.5%. 5. Intensification Areas Existing Measures and Additional Capacity for New Growth Existing Measures Figure 7 quantifies the existing number of dwelling units, residents, jobs and density measure (residents and jobs per hectare) for the currently identified Intensification Areas within the BUA. Figure 7: Existing Measures for Current Intensification Areas Non- Land Residential Residents Intensification Area Units Residents Jobs Area (Ha) Floor + Jobs/ha Space (m2) Urban Growth Centre 107 5,019 8,086 841,264 15,233 218 Primary Node 115 1,512 2,723 106,587 3,500 69 Mixed Use Nodes 294 4,602 8,297 214,254 6,167 46 Mixed Use Corridors 123 2,417 4,547 197,727 6,643 104 Neighbourhood Mixed Use 46 163 413 10,693 1,826 52 Centres Comprehensive 27 411 938 126,982 299 76 Development Areas Subtotal of 712 14,124 25,002 1,497,507 33,668 Intensification Areas Site Specific Intensification 1,273 2,461 721,568 7,676 53 Opportunities Grand Total 15,397 27,463 2,219,075 41,344 UGC data is provided by the Region based on Census, building permit and workplace count statistics. Job estimate for the UGC has not been updated for this year due to 2021 Census data on place of work being scheduled for release later this year. As such, job estimate for UGC is from the previous year. Outside of the UGC, population estimates are based on City and MPAC land use data and census persons per unit estimates. Job estimates are based on business directory or MPAC floor area and jobs per unit floor area assumptions. The estimated density of the Urban Growth Centre (UGC) is 218 RJs/ha in 2022. These figures have not been adjusted to account for changes in office and work from home trends brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. The extent to which pandemic-related changes will continue in the long term is uncertain. Nevertheless, interest in residential development within the UGC has remained robust during the pandemic period. Capacity for New Growth Figure 8 explores the estimated potential for accommodating new development within each of the intensification areas based on the existing zoning only. Figure 8: Additional Capacity Measures for Current Intensification Areas 50% Scenario The maximum amount of development permitted in the as-of- capacity to accommodate growth given current planning tools. It is anticipated that only some parcels within intensification areas will be redeveloped within the short or medium term for a variety of reasons. Some parcels will be developed at lower densities than the maximum permitted by zoning. Still others will receive zoning by-law amendments to exceed these maximums. In order to account for these factors, this report evaluates 50% of the maximum permitted by zoning as a reasonable estimate or proxy of opportunities for growth. Non- Residential Floor Residents Intensification Areas Area (Ha) Units Residents Space(m2) Jobs + Jobs/ha Urban Growth Centre 107 1,894 3,380 237,898 9,664 121 Primary Node 115 592 1,171 0 1,116 28 Mixed Use Nodes 294 7,073 13,596 683,491 18,884 117 Mixed Use Corridors 123 6,291 11,687 426,404 12,274 166 Neighbourhood Mixed Use 46 1,673 3,011 64,730 393 85 Centres Comprehensive 27 705 1,563 2,199 273 39 Development Areas Subtotal of Intensification 712 18,228 34,408 1,414,721 42,603 Areas Site Specific Intensification 2,493 4,458 218,901 4,211 41 Opportunities Grand Total 20,721 38,866 1,633,623 46,814 *Some data reported utilizes MPAC data which has limitations (i.e. non-residential building floor space). Buildings and sites within the Urban Growth are well positioned with existing land use, density, design approvals and amenities in place to accommodate some of the projected growth. New development applications and updates to the zoning in these areas as a result of the Comprehensive Review of the Zoning By-law (CRoZBy), and Major Transit Station Area land use/zoning reviews will continue to refine the planning framework and add to the capacity to accommodate growth in these areas. Figure 9 provides an account of the total number of dwelling units, residents, non-residential floor space and jobs that could result at build-out of the Intensification Areas. Figure 9: Total Measures (Existing + Additional Capacity) for Current Intensification Areas Non- Residential Intensification Area Floor Residents Areas (Ha) Units Residents Space(m2) Jobs + Jobs/ha Urban Growth Centre 107 6,913 11,466 1,079,162 24,897 339 Primary Node 115 2,104 3,893 106,587 4,616 97 Mixed Use Nodes 294 11,675 21,892 897,745 25,051 163 Mixed Use Corridors 123 8,708 16,234 624,131 18,917 270 Neighbourhood Mixed Use Centres 46 1,836 3,424 75,423 2,218 137 Comprehensive Development Areas 27 1,116 2,500 129,181 572 115 Subtotal of Intensification Areas 712 32,352 59,410 2,912,228 76,271 Site Specific Intensification Opportunities 3,766 6,919 940,469 11,887 94 Grand Total 36,118 66,329 3,852,698 88,157 Given the additional opportunities for redevelopment, based on existing zoning, there is capacity and potential to accommodate more people and jobs An example of current downtown intensification 6. Estimated Land Supply The estimated land supply for Kitchener is a total of the potential capacity within the BUA and the DGA. As development moves from raw land through the development approvals stage and eventually to construction, the land supply estimates become more accurate. 6.1 Potential Built-up Area Supply The Built-up Area land supply includes lands within the Built Boundary Line that are within intensification areas, are site specific intensification opportunities, include a minor intensification factor within existing communities (community interiors) and the potential supply from registered, draft approved and in-circulation subdivisions. Figure 10: Estimated Built-up Area Supply (capacity of intensification lands inside the Built Boundary) Non-Res. Intensification Area Units Residents Jobs Space (m²)* Urban Growth Centre 1,894 3,380 237,898 9,664 Primary Node 592 1,171 0 1,116 Mixed Use Nodes** 7,073 13,596 683,491 18,884 Mixed Use Corridors 6,291 11,687 426,404 12,274 Neighbourhood Mixed Use Centres 1,673 3,011 64,730 393 Comprehensive Development Areas 705 1,563 2,199 273 Subtotal of Intensification Areas 18,228 34,408 1,414,721 42,603 Site Specific Intensification Opportunities 2,493 4,458 218,901 4,211 Total Potential Supply of Current 20,721 38,866 1,633,623 46,814 Intensification Areas Community Interiors 450 1,149 0 32 Registered (Vacant Land Inventory) 303 657 238,272 3,967 Draft Approved 121 328 0 0 In Circulation 0 0 0 0 Other Designated 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 874 2,134 238,272 3,999 Total Potential Supply (Current Zoning) 21,595 40,999 1,871,894 50,813 *Some data reported utilizes MPAC data which has limitations (i.e. non-residential building floor space). **Does not include Lackner/Fairway Mixed Use Node which is in the Designated Greenfield Area. -up Area land supply includes a potential capacity of approximately 21,068 dwelling units and 1.87 million square metres of non-residential floor space. 6.2 Potential Designated Greenfield Area Supply The potential Designated Greenfield Area (DGA) land supply includes all lands outside the Built become more refined as land parcels within this area move through the development approval process. The dwelling unit numbers are primarily based on maximums for blocks of land that have a range of units. Similar to Figure 10, the DGA land supply includes intensification areas, site specific intensification opportunities, lands which have been designated in the Official Plan but do not currently have development applications and the potential supply from registered, draft approved and in-circulation subdivisions. Figure 11: Estimated Designated Greenfield Area Supply (lands outside the Built Boundary) Non-Res. Floor Space Greenfield Location Units Residents (m2) Jobs 240 430 57,100 1,180 Intensification Areas* Site Specific Intensification Opportunities 0 0 41,428 316 Other Designated Lands** 5,780 13,180 112,954 6,016 Registered (Vacant Land Inventory) 3,383 8,523 77,992 1,097 Draft Approved 3,614 7,534 168 168 In Circulation 3,670 9,381 24,300 168 Total*** 16,687 39,048 313,942 8,945 *Includes Lackner/Fairway Mixed Use Node (outside Built Boundary Line) ** Using 55 residents+jobs/hectare assumption. Lands are net Provincial constraints only. No Hidden Valley Community included. Includes Rosenberg lands without a development application, based on densities in the Rosenberg Secondary Plan. ***Does not include any additional lands added in the Region Official Plan and City Official Plan to the City Urban Area. Once the land use designations are considered, the DGA supply estimates will be updated. includes a potential capacity of approximately 16,700 residential units and 314,000 square metres of non-residential floor space. 6.3 Estimated Total Supply When combined, the potential land supply of both the BUA and DGA provides a total estimate for residential and employment land in Kitchener. Figure 12: Estimated Total Supply: Built-up Area and Designated Greenfield Area Non-Res. Space Location Units Residents Jobs (m²) Built-up Area (BUA) 21,595 40,999 1,871,894 50,813 Designated Greenfield 16,687 39,048 313,942 8,945 Area (DGA) Total 38,282 80,048 2,185,837 59,758 The estimated supply of dwelling units has increased in the BUA and decreased in the DGA from June 2021. The total supply of dwelling units and non-res space is expected to eventually The timing of development from the estimated supply of units is influenced by many factors including infrastructure timing, land owner priorities and market forces. As previously discussed throughout this report, the estimated land supply for Kitchener is based 4 Official Plan. It does not include any 2015 Official Plan urban area (within the DGA) nor does it include the intensification areas within the built-up area as outlined in the Once urban land use designations are assigned to the additional DGA lands, the DGA supply estimates will be updated. In addition, once updates to zoning in the intensification areas have been completed and are in effect through the Comprehensive Review of the Zoning By-law (CRoZBy), and Major Transit Station Areas land use/zoning reviews, the supply numbers for the BUA will also be updated. 7. Current Capacity for Growth This section compares the current population and employment capacity with the population and employment allocations provided by the Region of Waterloo. Figure 13: Population Allocation vs. Estimated Capacity Population Employment Existing* 274,014 104,775 Capacity 80,048 59,758 Total 342,048 150,758 2031 Growth Allocation 319,500 132,500 Difference 22,548 18,258 *Unofficial interim population as of mid-year 2022 and employment estimate as of mid-year 2021, Region 2022 mid-year population estimated by the Region is now 274,000 approximately 6,000 more people than reported mid-year 2021. Figure 13 estimates that the City has an existing supply/capacity of developable land within the BUA and DGA that can accommodate more residents and jobs than the 2031 population and employment allocation from the Region. Maintaining capacity beyond these forecasts is important to meet the housing and employment needs of our growing community because not all sites within intensification area will be redeveloped within the 2031 planning horizon. 8. A Place to Grow Implementation On May 16, 2019 a new Growth Plan (A Place to Grow) came into effect which, among other things, provides for revised intensification levels and density targets. A Place to Grow was amended in 2020. The new targets will come into effect upon approval of the Regional Official Plan by the Province. It is expected that the growth management strategy and framework as well as the annual monitoring report may be revised following changes to the Region Official Plan currently awaiting a decision by the Province review. Growth Forecasts In response to previous Provincial growth forecasts (and Regional allocation thereof), the City developed background information in support of the KGMS that analyzes the growth capacity of various areas of the city. As indicated in Section 7.0 of this report, Kitchener has the capacity to accommodate the allocated growth into appropriate areas. The Province continues to update long-term growth forecast scenarios for the Greater Golden allocations of these forecasts within local Official Plans. The Regions Official Plan is currently awaiting decision by the Province. At such time as the Regional Official Plan Amendment is approved by the Province to include different/further allocation of the forecasts for Kitchener, an update to the growth management assessment and the Kitchener Official Plan may be required. Urban Growth Centre The 2006 Growth Plan required that the Downtown Kitchener Urban Growth Centre be planned to achieve a minimum density of 200 RJs/ha by 2031. T this target at 225 RJs/ha by 2031. The present density is estimated at 218 RJs/ha. The UGC has exceeded the provincial minimum target and, with additional intensification projects currently happening or proposed in the UGC, the City is well positioned to meet and likely exceed the Official Plan minimum density target before 2031 providing continued opportunities for new housing and jobs . The minimum density target for the UGC is one way that Kitchener is required to track and report achievement of the Growth Plan target. Current work is underway to update the land use, zoning and design framework in the UGC and surrounding MTSAs to ensure complete, transit supportive communities. Intensification The 2006 Growth Plan required that 40% of residential development be directed to the BUA by 2015. The target within the Regional Official Plan is a minimum of 45% of all new residential development to be located within the BUA. The 2020 Growth Plan and the Regional Council adopted Regional Official Plan policies include a higher intensification level target. To monitor new development, the City has a dynamic system that tracks building permit issuance for new residential units inside and outside the Built Boundary Line. The most recent intensification level over a one-year period was 51% while the five-year average intensification level is now at 59%. As indicated in Section 4.0, a multi-year average provides a better understanding, for monitoring purposes, of whether the City is on track to achieve the required intensification level. Designated Greenfield Area Densities The Growth Plan mandates that future development within the Designated Greenfield Area should achieve specific, transit-supportive density targets. Based on the 2006 Growth Plan, to contribute for the entire Designated Greenfield Area shown in the Regional Official Plan, is 55 residents and jobs per hectare in greenfield areas (residential subdivisions). This same target applies to other urban areas within the Region. Kitchener is well positioned to meet this target. There are several plans of subdivision that are in areas served, or will be served, by transit that meet or exceed target. The Kitchener Growth Management Plan (KGMP) provides a tool for identifying and tracking the Designated Greenfield Area density. Higher Designated Greenfield Area density targets are proposed through the Regional Official Plan awaiting decision from the Province and will need to be addressed in future monitoring reports. Planning Principles Planning a city is not just about achieving certain numerical targets. The majority of the Growth Plan includes policy direction to achieve healthy and complete communities. Kitchener has long been a leader in promoting walkable, transit- continue to revitalize the Urban Growth Centre, clean up brownfield sites and achieve mixed use developments that are pedestrian-oriented are significant. Planning for a full range and mix of housing to meet the needs of households in all stages of their lives is also critical. We are further striving to enhance the linkages between land use planning and other community considerations such as transportation options, community infrastructure, social dynamics, economics and environmental conservation. Ultimately, the goal is to help achieve a higher quality of life in a complete and healthy community. 9. Regional Growth Management Strategy Implementation The goals outlined in the Regional Growth Management Strategy (RGMS), are largely reflected in the goals of the KGMS. 10. Kitchener Growth Management Strategy Implementation The KGMS encompasses six goals that facilitate managing growth and development within the City of Kitchener. These goals support the RGMS and have been adapted to the City of Kitchener context. All of the objectives, initiatives and recommendations of the KGMS have been completed in the past 12 years, with the most recent being the delivery of the new urban design manual in September 2019. 11. Kitcheners Growth Management Program The Kitchener Growth Management Plan (KGMP) is an evolution of the former Staging of Development program and is used as a tool to assist with the implementation of the KGMS. The KGMP establishes priority levels for development and infrastructure projects for each growth area within the City. It includes the prioritization and allocation of resources towards completing initiatives that are required to move lands from the draft approval stage to registration, construction and developing complete communities. The current KGMP (2019-2021+) was adopted by City Council in November 2019. This is the 13th edition of the annual growth monitoring report, and it has remained largely unchanged since the first version. This report tracks development and capacity in Intensification Areas and Designated Greenfield Areas established in the 1994 Official Plan. This report does not include statistics for the Major Transit Station Areas (MTSAs) and many other intensification areas that were I and dynamic tracking and monitoring system, will be updated in future years to reflect: recent changes to provincial legislation; recent ; and, subsequently Bill 23, More Homes Built Faster Act and other actions idented through the Housing Supply Action Plan 2022-2023 have the potential to affect the future of the Growth Management program if adopted. Bill 23 would see lower-tier municipalities take on the role of growth allocation and management. Additionally, the Province has signaled that changes to the Provincial Policy Statement and the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe are forthcoming which may require further Official Plan updates. Any changes that come into force will inform a revised growth management program. Staff are currently reviewing Kitcheners Growth Management Program, including the KGMP in light of the adoption of the Regions Official Plan and potential changes in provincial legislation through Bill 23 and anticipated changes to the Growth Plan and Provincial Policy Statement.