HomeMy WebLinkAboutDSD-2024-130 - Kitchener Growth Management Strategy: Annual Monitoring Report 2023
Development Services Department www.kitchener.ca
REPORT TO: Planning and Strategic Initiatives Committee
DATE OF MEETING: March 25, 2024
SUBMITTED BY: Rosa Bustamante, Director, Planning and Housing Policy,
519-741-2200 ext. 7319
PREPARED BY: Gaurang Khandelwal, Planner (Policy), 519-741-2200 ext. 7611
Tim Donegani, Senior Planner, 519-741-2200 ext. 7067
WARD(S) INVOLVED: ALL
DATE OF REPORT: March 8, 2024
REPORT NO.: DSD-2024-130
SUBJECT: Kitchener Growth Management Strategy: Annual Monitoring Report
2023 DSD-2024-130
RECOMMENDATION:
That the Kitchener Growth Management Strategy Annual Monitoring Report DSD-
2024-130 be used as the basis to fulfill Clause 22.1 of the Administrative Agreement
between the City of Kitchener and the Regional Municipality of Waterloo regarding
delegated approval authority.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
The purpose of this report is to highlight key growth trends in the City over the past two
years, track the developable land supply and measure progress against density and
intensification targets.
The key findings of this report are that:
o Kitchener exceeded the provincially assigned 2023 housing starts target under the
Building Faster Fund by 39%.
o Kitchener is on track to achieve the municipal housing target of 35,000 new units
by 2031. Between March 31, 2023 and December 31, 2023, Council approved
11,457 units through site specific applications, and staff issued final site plan
approval for 3,410 units. Between January 1, 2024 and March 13, 2024, Council
has approved 1,051 units through site specific applications and staff issued final
site plan approval of 203 units.
o Growth remained strong in the last year with 3,985 dwelling units created.
o A broad range of housing types have been developed in the last two years (2022
and 2023) with 64% as multiple dwelling types (49% of multiple dwelling types were
in the form of low to mid rise buildings), 6% as townhouses, and 30% in single-
detached, semi-detached, duplex, triplex and detached additional dwelling types.
o Kitchener exceeded its minimum annual intensification target with 69% of
residential growth within the Built-up area in 2023.
*** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. ***
Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance.
o
Planreview over the next two years, and ongoing secondary planning work in the
Dundee North area of southwest Kitchener, there continues to be sufficient
opportunities to accommodate planned residential growth to 2051.
There are no financial implications arising from this report.
in advance of the Council / Committee meeting. In addition, the monitoring report
information will be presented to the Kitchener Developers Liaison Committee in March.
This report supports the delivery of core services.
BACKGROUND:
The purpose of this report is to provide Committee and Council with the Kitchener Growth
Management Strategy: Annual Monitoring Report 2023 DSD-2024-130 (Monitoring
Report). The Monitoring Report is an action item of the 2009 Kitchener Growth Management
Strategy (KGMS), which requires tracking of the general supply of land and the achievement
of intensification and density targets on an annual basis.
REPORT:
The KGMS provides a long-term framework for planning where and how future residential
and employment growth should occur in Kitchener. To ensure that growth contributes
positively to quality of life, the KGMS coordinates the provision of infrastructure and services
with new development. The 2009 KGMS goals and actions support the Provincial Growth
Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan) and the Regional Growth
Management Strategy (RGMS).
The KGMS introduced a number of goals, one of which was to develop and facilitate an
ongoing growth management program to manage growth-related change in an effective and
co-ordinated manner (Goal 6). One of the action items of this goal is to prepare an annual
monitoring report to track the supply of development opportunities and the achievement of
intensification and density targets. This is also a requirement of the Growth Plan and the
Regional Official Plan. Monitoring reports have been prepared since 2010.
th
This is the 14 edition of the Monitoring Report and has been updated from the previous
iterations. The updates reflect the recent changes to provincial legislation and to the
Regional Official Plan (ROP). It includes statistics for Protected Major Transit Station Areas
housing pledge that
was approved in response to a request from the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing,
on March 20, 2023 supporting the building of 35,000 homes in Kitchener by 2031.
Highlights of the 2023 Monitoring Report include:
Municipal Housing Targets
Council approved development applications for 8,271 units in 2022 and 12,227 units
in 2023, a cumulative total of 20,498 units.
housing units between March 2023 and
2031.
Building permits were issued for 2,303 units in 2022 and 3,985 units in 2023,
accounting for a total of 6,288 units since 2022.
The housing targetisbased on new housing and
additional residential unit starts as provided by the Canada Mortgage and Housing
Corporation (CMHC) and the new or upgraded beds in long-term care homes as
provided by the Ministry of Long-Term Care. annual housing starts
target, under the Building Faster Fund is 2,567 for 2023. In 2023, Kitchener had
housing starts for 3,579 units, exceeding the target (139% of target met).
Kitchener is currently on track to achieve its assigned housing target by 2031.
Residential Development Rates
The number of new dwelling units created in 2023 (3,985) is the highest figure on
record. The number of dwelling units created in 2022 (2,303) is the lowest figure in
the last five years (2019-2023).
77% (3,068) of the new residential units in 2023 were in the form of multiple dwellings,
which is the highest on record. This was a considerable increase compared to that in
2022 of 40% (926) of the new residential units in the form of multiple dwellings.
1,906 multiple dwelling units created in 2023 were within 6 tall buildings (9 storeys or
higher), representing about 48% of the total new units created. The rest of the multiple
dwelling units created (38%) were either in the form of low to mid rise buildings or
additions to existing buildings.
In contrast to 2023, 127 multiple dwelling units were created within 1 tall building,
representing 6% of the total new units created in 2022. The rest of the multiple
dwelling units created (86%) were in the form of low to mid rise buildings or additions
to existing buildings.
688 duplex dwelling units were created in 2023 and 547 duplex dwelling units were
created in 2022, a continued increase from historical averages.
27 permits were issued for Detached Additional Dwelling Units (also referred to as
backyard homes) in 2023 and 15 permits were issued in 2022, showing a steady
increase since detached Additional Dwelling Units were first permitted in 2021.
Development within Built Up Area and Designated Greenfield Area
Building permits issued for new residential units within the Designated Greenfield
Area continue to provide a varied and balanced supply of dwelling types.
The number of multiple dwelling building permits issued in the Built-Up Area far
exceed those that that were issued within the Designated Greenfield Area. This is
expected as higher density multiple dwellings are focused within intensification areas
(e.g., Protected Major Transit Station Areas, nodes, and corridors).
The residential intensification level (new residential construction that occurs within
the Built-up Area) saw a dip in 2022 (32%) and a spike in 2023 (69%) as the timing
of six (6) high rise multiple dwellings with a total of 1,906 units in 2023 affected the
reported development rate in 2023.
-year average residential intensification level is 61%, which continues to
be an indication that the City is on track to contribute towards, and in some years
exceed, its intensification target of 60%.
Urban Growth Centre (UGC) Density
The estimated density of the Urban Growth Centre (UGC) is 220 residents and jobs
per hectare. Kitchener is on track to achie minimum density
target of 225 residents and jobs per hectare by 2031.
Protected Major Transit Station Area (PMTSA) Density
The estimated existing density of the Queen and Frederick PMTSA is 185 residents
and jobs per hectare, exceeding its minimum density target of 160 residents and jobs
per hectare.
Five (5) PMTSAs (Central Station, Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hall, Kitchener
Market, Borden, and Block Line) are also positioned to meet the prescribed minimum
density targets based on the current zoning.
Four (4) PMTSAs (Grand River Hospital, Mill, Fairway, and Sportsworld) may not be
able to achieve their prescribed density target of 160 residents and jobs per hectare
based on current zoning. However, with the Growing Together project, the City will
be positioned to achieve its minimum density targets for these PMTSAs.
Capacity for Growth
The City continues to have the potential to accommodate its allocated employment
growth to 2051 within its urban area.
Wi
transit station areas through the Growing Together project; the Enabling 4 Units
project;
over the next two years; and ongoing secondary planning work in the Dundee North
area of southwest Kitchener, there continues to be sufficient opportunities to
accommodate planned residential growth to 2051.
STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT:
This report supports the delivery of core services.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS:
Capital Budget The recommendation has no impact on the Capital Budget.
Operating Budget The recommendation has no impact on the Operating Budget.
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT:
INFORM
the Council / Committee meeting. In addition, monitoring report information will be presented
to the Kitchener Developers Liaison Committee in March.
PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES:
DSD-2022-410 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2022 Annual Monitoring
Report
DSD-19-206 Kitchener Growth Management Plan 2019-2021
DTS-09-011 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy
2010-2022 Annual Monitoring Reports and Biennial Plans available at
https://www.kitchener.ca/en/strategic-plans-and-projects/growth-management.aspx
REVIEWED BY: Natalie Goss, Manager, Policy and Research
APPROVED BY: Justin Readman, General Manager, Development Services
ATTACHMENTS: Attachment A Kitchener Growth Management Strategy (KGMS)
AnnualMonitoring Report 2023
Kitchener Growth Management Strategy
Annual Monitoring Report 2023
E XECUTIVE S UMMARY
In 2009, Kitchener approved its Growth Management Strategy (KGMS) in support of
relatively significant amount of residential and employment growth by 2051. The City
has also been assigned a housing target by the Province to achieve the building of
35,000 homes in Kitchener by 2031 .
As part of , the Province requires
municipal planning data to be reported on a quarterly and annual basis.
Kitchener tracks and monitors specific growth data in a dynamic manner. A snapshot
of the data is contained within this report.
The results of the 2023 growth management data continue to be encouraging.
Kitchener is on track to achieve and potentially exceed its 2031 housing target. The
housing target shows that Kitchener not
only achieved but exceeded its 2023 housing target by 39%.
The number of residents and jobs per hectare (RJs/ha) in the Urban Growth Centre
(Downtown) is 220 RJs/ha, surpassing the provincially mandated minimum target of
of 225 RJs/ha by 2031. Further, the estimated density of the Queen and Frederick
Protected Major Transit Station Area is 185 RJs/ha, exceeding its density target of
160 RJs/ha.
2023 intensification level was 69% and 5-year average intensification level
is 61% exceeding our minimum intensification target (60%).
In 2023, building permits were issued for a total of 3,985 new residential units our
highest figure on record. 77% of new residential units developed in 2023 were in the
form of multiple dwellings - a substantial increase compared to that in 2022 (40%)
and highest number on record. Development of additional dwelling units (e.g. duplex
dwelling units) has seen a considerable increase compared to historical averages.
Despite current market conditions, Kitchener saw record numbers of building permits
issued.
framework and dynamic tracking and monitoring system, will be updated in future
years to reflect: changes to pro
2
C ONTENTS
Executive Summary ....................................................................................... 2
1 Evolution of Growth Management ............................................................... 5
2 Municipal Housing Target ........................................................................... 7
2.1 ...................... 7
2.1.1 Council Approved Units .................................................................. 7
2.1.2 Residential Development Rates ....................................................... 8
2.1.3 Provincial Evaluation of the Housing Target .................................... 10
3 Growth Forecasts & Targets ..................................................................... 13
3.1 Intensification Targets ....................................................................... 13
3.1.1 Intensification Level Progress ........................................................ 14
3.2 Density Targets ................................................................................ 18
3.2.1 Tracking Growth in Intensification Areas ......................................... 20
3.2.1.1 Existing Measures .................................................................. 20
3.2.1.2 Capacity for New Growth ........................................................ 21
3.3 Estimated Land Supply ...................................................................... 24
3.4 Population and Employment Allocation................................................. 24
4 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 26
L IST OF F IGURES
2022 ............................................................................................................ 8
Figure 2. Annual Residential Development Rates in Kitchener, 2009-2023 ............. 8
2022 .......................................................................................................... 10
Figure 4. New Housing Starts as per CMHC, 2009-2023 .................................... 10
Figure 5. New Housing and ARU Starts, Long-term Care Beds, and Annual Housing
Target for Kitchener, 2009-2031 .................................................................... 11
......... 12
Figure 7. Urban Area Boundary, Built-up Area, and Designated Greenfield Area for
Kitchener .................................................................................................... 13
Figure 8. Annual Residential Intensification Levels, 2009-2023 ......................... 15
Figure 9. 2022 Intensification Levels .............................................................. 16
Figure 10. 2023 Intensification Levels ............................................................. 17
Figure 11. Intensification Areas in Kitchener, Kitchener Official Plan 2014 ........... 19
3
L IST OF T ABLES
Table 1. Annual Housing Target for the City of Kitchener ..................................... 7
Table 2. Annual Residential Development Rates by Dwelling Type, 2022-2023 ....... 9
Table 3. Annual Residential Development Rates for Multiple Dwellings, 2022-2023 . 9
Table 4. Minimum Annual Residential Intensification Target, Kitchener and Region of
Waterloo BUA .............................................................................................. 14
Table 5. Annual Residential Development Rates in the BUA and DGA by Dwelling
Type, 2022 and 2023 ................................................................................... 15
Table 6. Minimum DGA Density Target, Kitchener and Region of Waterloo DGA ... 18
Table 7. Minimum Density Targets for Urban Growth Centre and Protected Major
Transit Station Areas .................................................................................... 20
Table 8. Existing Measures for Primary Intensification Areas .............................. 21
Table 9. Additional Capacity Measures for Primary Intensification Areas .............. 22
Table 10. Total Measures (Existing + Additional Capacity) for Primary Intensification
Areas ......................................................................................................... 23
Table 11. Estimated Land Supply (capacity of lands within the urban area boundary)
................................................................................................................. 24
Table 12. Population and Employment Forecasts Allocation ............................... 24
Table 13. Population Allocation vs. Estimated Capacity ..................................... 25
4
1 E VOLUTION OF G ROWTH M ANAGEMENT
In the 1960s, population growth and expectations for the future in Kitchener were
soaring. The population of 100,000 was expected to more than double in 20 years.
Kitchener proactively undertook and participated in several long-range studies aimed
at guiding the future growth of Kitchener and the surrounding area.
One of these studies from 1964 entitled, Kitchener 2000 A Regional Concept,
Staging of Dgram. It was thought that
given the predicted rapid growth, a logical economic means for developing the city
was needed that would closely relate to the financial ability of the City to provide
infrastructure services for an area. Following work on a new Official Plan in 1968,
annual Lot Levies Reports were prepared. This report coordinated the provision of
engineering services with the timing of approving new subdivisions. At the time, the
annual Council-approved report led the way as an effective tool for managing growth
and after several years the process became known as the Staging of Development.
The Staging of Development paved the way for coordinating subdivision growth in
Kitchener. It was nearly 30 or more years later that many other municipalities in
Ontario implemented a formal staging program.
As with all processes, the need to evolve arises. After 40 years, the growth
management landscape significantly changed. Kitchener became part of a provincial
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The Region of Waterloo (the Region)
adopted a Regional Growth Management Strategy (RGMS). Social, environmental and
economic objectives became more complex. These changes saw the Staging of
Development program evolve and make way for the new Kitchener Growth
Management Strategy (KGMS), along with its implementation tools.
Approved by Kitchener Council in 2009, the KGMS provides a framework for planning
where and how future residential and employment growth can be accommodated in
The goals and
actions outlined in the KGMS support the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden
Horseshoe, 2006 (the Growth Plan, 2006) and the RGMS. One of the goals (Goal 6)
of the KGMS introduced an ongoing growth management program to manage growth-
related change in an effective and coordinated manner. A biannual Kitchener Growth
Management Plan (KGMP) and an annual Growth Management Monitoring Report
(Monitoring Report) were identified as important components for the growth
management program.
The KGMP establishes priority levels for development and infrastructure projects for
each growth area within the City. It includes the prioritization and allocation of
resources towards completing initiatives that are required to move lands from the
draft approval stage to registration, construction and developing complete
communities.
The Monitoring Report, historically, has tracked the supply of development, and the
achievement of intensification and density targets for Kitchener. Monitoring Reports
5
have been prepared and presented to Council and the development industry since
2010. The previous Monitoring Report iterations are available on the
Management webpage. These Monitoring Reports have included a summary of
Planning Act applications, residential development rates within the delineated Built-
up Area (BUA) and the Designated Greenfield Area (DGA), and potential capacity to
accommodate growth in the City.
Kitchener has been on the leading edge with respect to the ability to track and
growth management program the intent is to continually refine the data, improve the
dynamic capabilities and provide information to help support numerous corporate
studies and infrastructure projects.
The Province implemented Ontario Regulation 73/23 - Municipal Planning Data
Reporting in April of 2023.
developing standards and achieving consistency for the reporting of data required for
development applications. The City of Kitchener is required, under this regulation, to
report Planning Act application information on a quarterly basis and additional
information on an annual basis. The City of Kitchener has submitted quarterly
Planning Act application data to the Province for each quarter in 2023.
th
This is the 14 edition of the Monitoring Report and it has been updated from the
previous iterations. The updates reflect the recent changes to provincial legislation
and to the Regional Official Plan (ROP). It includes statistics for Protected Major
Transit Station Areas and other primary intensification areas that were established in
Plan. This report also tracks progress towards the City of
Kitchenerhousing pledge that was approved in response to a request from the
Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, on March 20, 2023 supporting the building
of 35,000 homes in Kitchener by 2031.
6
2 M UNICIPAL H OUSING T ARGET
In October 2022, the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing provided individual
housing targets for 29 municipalities across Ontario and requested that each
municipality submit a municipal housing pledge to the Province. 21 additional
at least 1.5 million homes by 2031.
On March 20, 2023, the City of Kitchener approved a housing pledge supporting the
building of 35,000 homes in Kitchener by 2031. Further annual targets were assigned
ng goal and applying
that proportion against province-wide annual targets. Table 1 summarizes the annual
and overall housing target for Kitchener. These targets are independent from the
Growth Plan intensification and density targets.
Table 1. Annual Housing Target for the City of Kitchener
Target 2023 2024 2025 2026 & beyond Total by 2031
Province 110,000 125,000 150,000 175,000 1,500,000
City of Kitchener 2,567 2,917 3,500 4,083 35,000
Note No housing targets have been assigned for 2022. However, the overall housing target of 35,000
for Kitchener is from 2022 to 2031.
2.1 T RACKING P ROGRESS ON K ITCHENERS M UNICIPAL H OUSING T ARGET
2.1.1 C OUNCIL A PPROVED U NITS
Plan of subdivisions, Official Plan amendments, Zoning By-law amendments, and Part
Lot Control applications require approval by Council. The number of units that are
approved by Council indicate how many units are anticipated to be built in the future
years. It is important to note that there is a time lag between Council approval and
actual development of units. The length of time it takes to get from Council approval
to the start of construction varies dramatically and is highly influenced by market
conditions.
Figure 1 compares the municipal housing target with the number of units that the
Council has approved since 2022. In 2022, Council approved 37 applications with a
total of 8,271 units. In 2023, Council approved 65 applications with a total of 12,227
units. A cumulative 20,498 units have been approved since 2022.
7
Figure 1and Council Approved Units, since 2022
Kitchener's Municipal Housing Target
ЌЎͲЉЉЉ
Council Approved Units
8,27112,227
20222023
2.1.2 R ESIDENTIAL D EVELOPMENT R ATES
Figure 2 Error! Reference source not found. illustrates the total number of new
units for which building permits were issued annually from 2009 to 2023 and a 5-
year moving average. In 2022, building permits were issued for a total of 2,303 new
residential units. This was a decrease from the previous three years (2019-2021). In
2023, building permits were issued for a total of 3,985 new residential units, the
highest number of building permits issued on record. The 5-year moving average
shows that the number of building permits issued for new residential units have
steadily grown over the years.
Figure 2. Annual Residential Development Rates in Kitchener, 2009-2023
4500
3985
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4000
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3672
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3500
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1259
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1169
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1070
1028
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1000
N
500
0
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
Total New Units Created5-Year Moving Average
Table 2 Error! Reference source not found. provides the number of new units for
which building permits were issued by the type of dwelling from 2022 to 2023 and
8
the average of last 5-years (2019-2023). The development of single detached, semi-
detached street townhouse and cluster townhouse dwellings has seen a downturn.
However, there has been a steady increase in the development of duplex dwelling
units. The development of triplex, and detached ADUs has also seen a considerable
increase between 2022 and 2023, since Bill 23 changes were implemented, although
the overall numbers for triplex and detached ADUs are still low. Multiple dwellings
had a slow 2022 but a considerably strong 2023 with a historic record level of multiple
dwelling units for which building permits were issued.
Table 2. Annual Residential Development Rates by Dwelling Type, 2022-2023
Dwelling Type Number of New Residential Units Created
2022 2023 5-year
average
Single Detached 447 148 407
Semi-Detached 12 7 27
Street Townhouse 298 18 206
1
Duplex 547 688 423
1
Triplex 10 29 14
1
Detached ADU 15 27 16
Cluster Townhouse 48 0 31
2
Multiple Dwellings 926 3,068 2,111
Total New Units 2,303 3,985 3,228
Notes:
1. In association with single detached, semi-detached and street townhouse dwelling types
2. Includes stacked townhouse dwellings
A further breakdown of multiple dwellings is illustrated in Table 3 Error! Reference
source not found.. In 2023, building permits for six (6) high rise multiple dwellings
were issued with a total of 1,906 units. This was up from one (1) high rise multiple
dwelling issued in 2022.
Table 3. Annual Residential Development Rates for Multiple Dwellings, 2022-2023
Dwelling Type Number of New Residential Units Created
2022 2023
Stacked Townhouse 112 (12%) 423 (14%)
Low Rise Multiple (3 storeys or fewer) 43 (4%) 121 (4%)
Mid Rise Multiple (4 to 8 storeys) 606 (66%) 420 (14%)
High Rise Multiple (9 storeys or higher) 127 (14%) 1,906 (62%)
Additions/Conversions 38 (4%) 198 (6%)
Total Multiple Dwellings 926 3,068
Notes:
(value) represents percentages of column totals
Figure 3 compares the municipal housing target with the number of units for building
permits issued since 2022. In 2022, building permits were issued for 2,303 units. In
9
2023, building permits were issued for 3,985 units. Building permits have been issued
for a total of 6,288 units since 2022. This accounts for 18
housing target.
Figure 3 and Building Permits Issued, since 2022
Kitchener's Municipal Housing Target
ЌЎͲЉЉЉ
3,985
Building Permits Issued
2,303
20222023
2.1.3 P ROVINCIAL E VALUATION OF THE H OUSING T ARGET
The Province evaluates performance against the housing targets based on housing
starts and additional residential units (for example, laneway, garden and basement
suites) as provided by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); and
other institutional housing types (such as long-term care beds) as provided by the
Ministry of Long-Term Care, created in a given calendar year. CMHC defines a housing
start as the beginning of construction work on a building. This is usually when the
concrete has been poured for the footings or basement.
Figure 4 illustrates the number of new housing starts annually since 2009 and 5 year
moving average. The trend generally follows the number of building permits that are
issued in Kitchener.
10
Figure 4. New Housing Starts as per CMHC, 2009-2023
4000
3,615
3,356
3500
2,777
3000
s
t
2,470
i
n
2500
U
2,094
2,042
f
o
20001,744
r
1,619
e
1,482
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1,302
1,263
1500
m
1,086
u
924
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863866
1000
500
0
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
New Housing Starts5-year moving average
To evaluate performance against the municipal housing target, the Province has
started reporting a cumulative number of additional residential units (ARUs - this is
similar to Kitcheand
new or upgraded beds in long-term care homes. These have not been reported
previously and are not available for the previous years at the time of writing this
report.
Figure 5 illustrates new housing starts from 2009 to 2023, ARU starts and long-term
care beds in 2022 and 2023, a 5-year moving average of total units, and annual
housing targets from 2023 to 2031. A multi-year average provides a better indication
of progress towards the housing target. The compounded annual growth rate of the
5-year moving average for a 5 year period (2019 to 2023) is 9%. Further, the 2023
data shows that Kitchener not only achieved its housing target but exceeded it by
39%. This indicates that Kitchener is on track to achieve and potentially exceed its
assigned housing target and receive provincial Building Faster Fund.
11
Figure 5. New Housing and ARU Starts, Long-term Care Beds, and Annual Housing Target
for Kitchener, 2009-2031
4,500
408340834083408340834083
4,000
3,615
3,579
3500
3,356
3,500
2,948
2917
3,000
2567
2,500
2,094
2,042
2,000
1,744
1,619
1,482
1,500
1,302
1,263
1,086
924
866
863
1,000
500
0
20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Housing TargetNew Housing StartsARU starts + LTC beds5-year moving average
Notes:
Total units in the figure above includes number of new housing and ARU starts as provided by CMHC, and
new or upgraded beds in long-term care homes as provided by the Ministry of Long-Term Care for 2022 and
2023 only. ARU starts and new or upgraded beds in long-term care homes is not available for years prior to
2022.
Figure 6 Error! Reference source not found.
towards its provincially assigned housing target of 35,000 by 2031. Since 2022,
Kitchener has seen a total of 6,527 units created, which includes new housing starts
as reported by CMHC, additional residential units, and new or upgraded beds in long-
term care homes. This represents approximately 18.6% of the housing target. 28,473
units are needed to meet the housing target by 2031, an average of approximately
3,560 units every year.
Figure 6
Kitchener's Municipal Housing Target
ЌЎͲЉЉЉ
New Housing Starts, ARU Starts and LTC Beds
29483579
20222023
12
13
3 G ROWTH F ORECASTS & T ARGETS
3.1 I NTENSIFICATION T ARGETS
The Growth Plan, 2006 a, including the
delineated Built-Up Area (BUA), and the Designated Greenfield Area (DGA). Figure 7
shows the Urban Area Boundary, the BUA, and the DGA for Kitchener. It should be
noted that Urban Area Boundary and DGA as established in the Regional
Official Plan is subject to change pending a decision on Bill 162, Get it Done Act which
was tabled in February 2024.
Figure 7. Urban Area Boundary, Built-up Area, and Designated Greenfield Area for Kitchener
14
The Built-up Area (BUA) represents the lands that were developed with urban uses
as of 2006 and does not change year over year. Lands within the BUA have been
used to implement and measure minimum residential intensification targets.
Intensification refers to the development of a property, site or area at a higher density
than currently exists. The residential intensification targets have been a key
component to create more compact development patterns, promote energy
efficiency, provide a greater variety of housing options, and better integrate transit
and land use planning.
Kitchener residential intensification targets have
changed overtime. The 2006 Growth Plan established a minimum residential
intensification target of 40% for the Region at that time
required the achievement of a minimum 45% as the region-wide residential
intensification target. The Growth Plan, 2020 revised the region-wide minimum
residential intensification target to 50%. Further, through
amendment number 6 (ROPA 6) which brought their Official Plan into conformity with
the Growth Plan 2020, established a higher residential intensification target for the
Region and specified residential intensification targets for the area municipalities.
Kitchener minimum residential intensification target is 60% with a total minimum
of 31,660 units in the BUA from 2022 to 2051 (Table 4).
Table 4. Minimum Annual Residential Intensification Target, Kitchener and Region of
Waterloo BUA
Minimum Annual Total Minimum Units in
Residential the BUA
Intensification Target 2022-2051
Kitchener BUA 60% 31,660
Region of Waterloo 61% 71,150
3.1.1 I NTENSIFICATION L EVEL P ROGRESS
Annual residential development rates by dwelling type in the BUA and DGA are
indicated for 2022 and 2023 in Table 5. The intensification level in 2022 was 32%
and in 2023 was 69%.
(such as in 2022) years with respect to intensification levels as the timing of multiple
dwelling developments can affect the reported development rates in a given year for
a municipality the size of Kitchener. As we have seen in recent years, when there is
a substantial number of multiple dwelling units created in the BU
intensification level is higher.
15
Table 5. Annual Residential Development Rates in the BUA and DGA by Dwelling Type, 2022
and 2023
Dwelling Type 2022 2023
DGA BUA Total DGA BUA Total
Single Detached 423 24 447 137 11 148
Semi-Detached 2 10 12 4 3 7
Street Townhouse 298 0 298 18 0 18
1
Duplex 211 336 547 356 332 688
1
Triplex 0 10 10 0 29 29
1
Detached ADU 1 14 15 1 26 27
Cluster Townhouse 0 48 48 0 0 0
2
Multiple Dwellings 634 292 926 732 2,336 3,068
Total New Units (3) 1,569 734 2,303 1,248 2,737 3,985
(68%) (32%) (100%) (31%) (69%) (100%)
Notes:
1. Includes duplex, triplex, detached ADU in association with single detached, semi-detached and street
townhouse dwelling types
2. Includes stacked townhouse dwellings
Figure 8 illustrates the historic annual intensification levels and 5-year average
intensification levels for the City. A multi-year average provides a better
understanding, for growth monitoring purposes, of whether the City is on track to
achieve the required intensification level. This continues to indicate that the City is
on track to contribute towards, and in some years exceed, the minimum
intensification target of 60%.
Figure 8. Annual Residential Intensification Levels, 2009-2023
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
Intensification Level (%)
42%43%56%25%58%54%49%41%44%53%78%69%58%32%69%
5 year average Intensification Level
40%39%41%39%45%47%48%45%49%48%53%57%60%58%61%
Error! Reference source not found. illustrates the location of new units created in
2022 and Error! Reference source not found. illustrates the location of new units
16
The figures
show that location of new units created in 2022 were spread out across the BUA and
the DGA in 2022, however, more medium and large sized developments were located
within the protected major transit station areas in 2023.
Figure 9. 2022 Intensification Levels
17
Figure 10. 2023 Intensification Levels
18
3.2 D ENSITY T ARGETS
a density target of 55 residents and jobs
combined per gross hectare for areas serving primarily a residential function and 40
residents and jobs combined per gross hectare for areas serving primarily an
employment function within the Designated Greenfield Area (DGA). Designated
greenfield area (DGA) are lands within the urban area but outside of delineated built-
up areas that are designated for development and are required to accommodate
forecasted growth. Through ROPA 6, the minimum DGA density target for Kitchener
and the Region have been revised to 65 and 59 residents and jobs combined per
gross hectare by 2051, respectively (Table 6).
Table 6. Minimum DGA Density Target, Kitchener and Region of Waterloo DGA
Minimum Density Target
(residents and jobs combined per gross hectare)
Kitchener DGA 65
Region of Waterloo 59
Intensification areas are identified throughout the City in both the BUA and the DGA
as key locations where growth is to be focused.
areas include the Urban Growth Centre (UGC), Protected Major Transit Station Areas
(PThe Secondary
intensification areas include Neighbourhood Nodes, Arterial Corridors and other site-
specific opportunities. Figure 11 shows the primary and secondary intensification
areas.
19
Figure 11. Intensification Areas in Kitchener, Kitchener Official Plan 2014
The Growth Plan, 2020 provides a minimum density target of 200 residents and jobs
combined per hectare to be achieved for Kitchener by 2031.
Although the Regional Official Plan notes the same density for
(Downtown) as the Growth Plan, the Kitchener Official Plan sets a minimum density
target of 225 residents and jobs combined per gross hectare.
The Growth Plan, 2020 has further established a minimum density of 160 residents
and jobs combined per hectare for Pthat are served by light rail transit or bus
rapid transit, as is the case in Kitchener. There is no timeline associated with density
targets for Psets the same target for all of the P
except for the Block Line PMTSA which is to achieve a minimum density target of 80
20
residents and jobs combined per hectare. Table 7 summarizes the minimum density
targets established for the UGC and the P
Table 7. Minimum Density Targets for Urban Growth Centre and Protected Major Transit
Station Areas
Minimum Density Target
(residents and jobs combined
per gross hectare)
UGC Downtown Kitchener (by 2031) 225
PMTSAs (no timing noted) NA
Grand River Hospital 160
Central Station 160
Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hall 160
Queen plus Frederick 160
Kitchener Market 160
Borden 160
Mill 160
Block Line 80
Fairway 160
Sportsworld 160
3.2.1 T RACKING G ROWTH IN I NTENSIFICATION A REAS
Ќ͵Ћ͵Њ͵Њ 9ǣźƭƷźƓŭ aĻğƭǒƩĻƭ
Table 8 quantifies the existing number of dwelling units, residents, non-residential
floor area, jobs and density measure (residents and jobs per hectare) for the primary
intensification areas DGA. The non-residential floor area
and job estimates have not been adjusted to account for changes in office and work
from home trends brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Region is undertaking
a workplace count survey in 2024 and it is expected that this survey will inform
updates to the non-residential floor area and job estimates that reflect pandemic
related changes to employment.
Interest in residential development has remained robust. The estimated density of
the Urban Growth Centre (UGC), Queen and Frederick PMTSA, and Victoria Park and
Kitchener City Hall PMTSA is 220 RJs/ha, 185 RJs/ha, and 136 RJs/ha respectively in
2023. The Queen and Frederick PMTSA has already met its density target of 160
RJs/ha.
21
Table 8. Existing Measures for Primary Intensification Areas
Non-
Residents
Land Area residential
Type of Area Units Residents Jobs and Jobs /
(ha) Floor Area
ha
2
(m)
1,2
Urban Growth Centre
107 4,872 8,335 841,264 15,233 220
PMTSAs
715 13,914 28,382 1,679,121 25,090 75
Grand River Hospital
84 1,345 2,973 203,964 3,964 82
2
Central Station
68 1,238 2,663 277,060 3,420 89
Victoria Park and
2
59 2,023 3,769 496,245 4,243 136
Kitchener City Hall
2
Queen and Frederick
45 1,918 3,696 164,460 4,586 185
Kitchener Market
49 1,392 3,010 58,385 838 78
Borden
51 534 1,231 106,400 1,187 48
Mill
89 1,129 2,733 161,202 1,000 42
Block Line
99 1,802 3,481 46,193 717 42
Fairway
92 2,342 4,286 101,782 2,913 78
Sportsworld
79 191 540 63,430 2,220 35
City Nodes
165 792 1,451 63,604 3,248 28
Community Nodes
234 3,528 6,321 87,530 3,810 43
Urban Corridors
280 2,067 3,892 249,366 6,642 38
Total for Primary
ЊͲЌВЍ ЋЉͲЌЉЊ ЍЉͲЉЍА ЋͲЉАВͲЏЋЊ ЌБͲАВЉ ЎА
2
Intensification Areas
Notes:
1. UGC Data is provided by the Region based on Census, building permit and workplace count statistics. Job
estimate for the UGC has not been updated for this year. As such, job estimate for UGC is from 2021.
2. Boundary for the Urban Growth Centre overlaps with the boundary of the Central Station, Victoria Park and
Kitchener City Hall, and the Queen plus Frederick PMTSA boundaries. Therefore, Urban Growth Centre data
has not been included in the subtotal for primary intensification areas.
Ќ͵Ћ͵Њ͵Ћ /ğƦğĭźƷǤ ŅƚƩ bĻǞ DƩƚǞƷŷ
Table 9 explores the estimated potential for accommodating new development within
the primary intensification areas based on existing zoning only.
The primary intensification areas are well positioned with the existing zoning in place
to accommodate some of the projected growth in Kitchener. New development
applications and land use/zoning reviews such as the Growing Together project and
on-going secondary planning work will continue to refine the planning framework and
add to the capacity to accommodate growth in these areas.
22
Table 9. Additional Capacity Measures for Primary Intensification Areas
50% Scenario
The maximum amount of development permitted in the as-of-right zoning represents the
that only some parcels within intensification areas will be redeveloped within the short or
medium term for a variety of reasons. Some parcels will be developed at lower densities than
the maximum permitted by zoning. Still others will receive zoning by-law amendments to
exceed these maximums. In order to account for these factors, this report evaluates 50% of
the maximum permitted by zoning as a reasonable estimate or proxy of opportunities for
growth. As-of-right zoning permissions do not include any changes to zoning proposed
through Growing Together project.
Non-
Residents
Land Area residential
Type of Area Units Residents Jobs and Jobs /
(ha) Floor Area
ha
2
(m)
1
Urban Growth Centre
107 1,850 3,264 242,567 9,349 118
Major Transit Station
715 12,367 23,072 809,874 27,294 70
Areas
Grand River Hospital
84 1,509 2,757 81,169 3,035 69
1
Central Station
68 1,576 2,988 140,156 4,778 113
Victoria Park and
1
59 1,162 2,084 57,175 3,341 92
Kitchener City Hall
1
Queen plus Frederick
45 1,044 2,063 126,730 4,362 143
Kitchener Market
49 1,191 2,107 59,130 1,946 82
Borden
51 1,603 2,866 102,109 2,988 115
Mill
89 2,168 3,982 32,358 1,884 66
Block Line
99 1,332 2,511 143,278 2,958 55
Fairway
92 390 1,012 18,703 695 19
Sportsworld
79 393 703 74,465 1,308 26
City Nodes
165 2,322 4,154 515,054 9,559 83
Community Nodes
234 9,206 16,994 655,305 17,968 150
Urban Corridors
280 5,521 10,630 427,598 11,238 78
Total for Primary
ЊͲЌВЍ ЋВͲЍЊЏ ЎЍͲБЍВ ЋͲЍЌЌͲЋЌЋ ЏЏͲЉЎВ БА
1
Intensification Areas
Notes:
1. Boundary for the Urban Growth Centre overlaps with the boundary of the Central Station, Victoria Park and
Kitchener City Hall, and the Queen plus Frederick PMTSA boundaries. Therefore, Urban Growth Centre data
has not been included in the subtotal for primary intensification areas.
Table 10 provides an account of the total number of dwelling units, residents, non-
residential floor area, jobs and density measure (residents and jobs per hectare) for
.
Given the additional opportunities for redevelopment, based on existing zoning, there
is capacity and potential to accommodate more people and jobs within Kitch
primary intensification areas.
The UGC is well positioned to achieve its density target of 225 residents and jobs per
hectare. Further, six (6) PMTSAs (Central Station, Victoria Park and Kitchener City
23
Hall, Queen plus Frederick, Kitchener Market, Borden, and Block Line) are also well
positioned to meet the prescribed minimum density targets based on the current
zoning. However, four (4) PMTSAs (Grand River Hospital, Mill, Fairway, and
Sportsworld) may not be able to achieve their prescribed density target of 160
residents and jobs per hectare. These estimates are based on current zoning and do
not take into account the proposed zoning framework for the PMTSAs through the
Growing Together project. If the proposed zoning regulations come into effect, the
City will be well positioned to meet or exceed its minimum density targets for all of
the PMTSAs.
Other primary intensification areas do not have assigned density targets but add
considerable population and employment
allocation.
Table 10. Total Measures (Existing + Additional Capacity) for Primary Intensification Areas
Non-
Residents
Land Area residential
Type of Area Units Residents Jobs and Jobs
(ha) Floor Area
/ ha
2
(m)
1
Urban Growth Centre
107 6,722 11,599 1,083,831 24,582 338
Major Transit Station
715 26,281 51,454 2,488,995 52,384 145
Areas
Grand River Hospital
84 2,854 5,730 285,133 6,999 151
1
Central Station
68 2,814 5,650 417,216 8,199 202
Victoria Park and
1
59 3,185 5,853 553,420 7,583 228
Kitchener City Hall
1
Queen plus Frederick
45 2,962 5,759 291,190 8,948 328
Kitchener Market
49 2,583 5,117 117,515 2,784 160
Borden
51 2,137 4,097 208,509 4,176 163
Mill
89 3,297 6,715 193,560 2,884 108
Block Line
99 3,134 5,991 189,471 3,675 97
Fairway
92 2,732 5,298 120,485 3,608 97
Sportsworld
79 584 1,243 137,895 3,528 61
City Nodes
165 3,114 5,605 578,658 12,807 112
Community Nodes
234 12,734 23,316 742,835 21,778 193
Urban Corridors
280 7,588 14,522 676,964 17,880 116
Total for Primary
ЊͲЌВЍ ЍВͲАЊА ВЍͲБВЏ ЍͲЎЊЋͲБЎЌ ЊЉЍͲБЍВ ЊЍЌ
1
Intensification Areas
Notes:
1. Boundary for the Urban Growth Centre overlaps with the boundary of the Central Station, Victoria Park and
Kitchener City Hall, and the Queen plus Frederick PMTSA boundaries. Therefore, Urban Growth Centre data
has not been included in the subtotal for primary intensification areas.
24
3.3 E STIMATED L AND S UPPLY
The estimated land supply for Kitchener is a total of the potential capacity within the
primary or secondary intensification areas, and the potential supply from registered,
draft approved and in-circulation subdivisions. As development moves from raw land
through the development approvals stage and eventually to construction, the land
supply estimates become more accurate.
Table 11
approximately 84,826 dwelling units and 2.97 million square metres of non-
residential floor space.
The estimated supply of dwelling units and non-residential floor space has increased
compared to the previous report, reflecting changes in boundaries of the
intensification areas based on the 2014 Official Plan. The estimated supply is further
anticipated to increase once zoning is updated based on land use/zoning reviews such
as the Growing Together project and on-going secondary planning work. Timing of
development from the estimated supply of units, however, is influenced by many
factors including infrastructure timing, landowner priorities and market forces.
Table 11. Estimated Land Supply (capacity of lands within the urban area boundary)
Non-
residential
Type of Area Units Residents Jobs
Floor Area
2
(m)
ЋВͲЍЊЏ ЎЍͲБЍВ ЋͲЍЉАͲБЌЋ ЏЏͲЉЎВ
Primary Intensification Areas
ЏͲЍВЏ ЊЊͲЏЍЋ ЌЎЎͲВЋЏ ЎͲБЌЋ
Secondary Intensification Areas
3,597 8,544 184,324 2,282
Plan of Subdivisions - Registered
3,390 7,269 168 168
Plan of Subdivisions - Draft Approved
1,053 2,522 - -
Plan of Subdivisions - In Circulation
ЍЌͲВЎЋ БЍͲБЋЏ ЋͲВАЌͲЏЎЊ АЍͲЌЍЊ
Total
3.4 P OPULATION AND E MPLOYMENT A LLOCATION
A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2020 (the Growth
Plan, 2020) provides population and employment forecasts for all upper-tier and
single-tier municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe area (GGH). The growth
forecasts are further allocated to area municipalities by the Region.
Official Plan Amendment No. 6 (ROPA 6), is identified in Table 12. Kitchener is
forecast to grow to 409,200 people and 170,500 jobs by 2051 representing an
increase of about 52 percent and 54 percent respectively between 2021 and 2051.
These forecasts are to be used as the basis for planning and managing growth to
2051.
Table 12. Population and Employment Forecasts Allocation
Notes:
25
Population Employment
2021 2051 2021 2051
City of Kitchener 269,100 409,200 111,000 170,500
Other Area Municipalities 347,900 513,800 191,000 299,500
Region of Waterloo 617,000 923,000 302,000 470,000
1. Population figures in this table show census-based population plus four percent under coverage. As such, it
does not include university and college students who temporarily reside in the Region (either in student
residences or other accommodation) to study at post-secondary institutions.
2. All population and employment in this table represent mid-year figures.
Table 13 compares the current population and employment capacity with the
population and employment allocations provided by the Region of Waterloo.
-year population estimated by the Region is now 281,000 with
approximately 7,000 more people than reported in mid-year 2022. Table 13 also
estimates that the City has an existing supply/capacity of developable land to
accommodate more jobs than the 2051 employment allocation by the Region.
However, there is a gap with respect to 2051 population allocation by the Region.
As previously discussed in this report, the estimated capacity for Kitchener is based
on existing zoning. It does not include zoning updates anticipated through land use
/ zoning reviews such as the Growing Together project and on-going secondary
planning work. Further, this report is based on intensification areas established as
per the 2014 Official Plan that uses a 2031 planning horizon. There is sufficient zoned
capacity to meet the City 2031 population forecast of 319,500. Work is currently
underway to
station areas. Additionally, updated planning permissions will occur as part of
ndary planning work in the Dundee North
area of southwest Kitchener and Hidden Valley. This ongoing work will ensure that
there are sufficient opportunities to accommodate planned residential growth within
the urban area boundary to 2051. ROPA 6, it was confirmed
that there is sufficient land designated and available to accommodate the 2051
population forecast for both the Built-up area and designated greenfield area that will
become development ready in the short term.
Table 13. Population Allocation vs. Estimated Capacity
Population Employment
1
Existing
280,894 111,000
Capacity
84,826 74,341
Total
365,720 185341
2051 Allocation
409,200 170,500
Difference (Gap)
ΛЍЌͲЍБЉΜ ЊЍͲБЍЊ
Notes:
1. Unofficial interim population as of mid-year 2023 and employment estimate as of mid-year 2021, Region
of Waterloo
26
4 C ONCLUSION
Kitchener is on track to achieve and potentially exceed its 2031 housing target. The
using target shows that Kitchener not
only achieved but exceeded its 2023 housing target by 39%.
Despite current market conditions, Kitchener saw record numbers of building permits
issued. In 2023, building permits were issued for a total of 3,985 new residential
units, highest figure on record. 77% of new residential units developed in 2023 were
in the form of multiple dwellings - a substantial increase compared to that in 2022
(40%) and highest number on record. A broad range of housing types have been
developed in the last two years (2022 and 2023) with 64% as multiple dwelling types
(49% of multiple dwelling types were in the form of low to mid rise buildings), 6%
as townhouses, and 30% in single-detached, semi-detached, duplex, triplex and
detached additional dwelling types.
Kitchener exceeded its minimum annual intensification target with 69% of residential
growth within the Built-up area in 2023. The 5-year average intensification level is
61% which also exceeds our minimum intensification target (60%).
The number of residents and jobs per hectare (RJs/ha) in the Urban Growth Centre
(Downtown) is 220 RJs/ha, surpassing the provincially mandated minimum target of
of 225 RJs/ha by 2031. Further, the estimated density of the Queen and Frederick
Protected Major Transit Station Area is 185 RJs/ha, exceeding its minimum density
target of 160 RJs/ha.
strategy,
framework and dynamic tracking and monitoring system, will be updated in future
planned
the next two years, and ongoing secondary planning work in the Dundee North area
of southwest Kitchener, there continues to be sufficient opportunities to
accommodate planned residential and employment growth to 2051.
27