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HomeMy WebLinkAboutDSD-2025-101 - Kitchener Growth Management Strategy: Annual Monitoring Report 2024Staff Report Development Services Department www.kitchener.ca REPORT TO: Planning and Strategic Initiatives Committee DATE OF MEETING: March 17, 2025 SUBMITTED BY: Rosa Bustamante, Director, Planning and Housing Policy/City Planner, 519-783-8929 PREPARED BY: Gaurang Khandelwal, Planner (Policy), 519-783-8937 WARD(S) INVOLVED: ALL DATE OF REPORT: February 25, 2025 REPORT NO.: DSD -2025-101 SUBJECT: Kitchener Growth Management Strategy: Annual Monitoring Report 2024 RECOMMENDATION: For Information REPORT HIGHLIGHTS: • The purpose of this report is to highlight key growth trends in the City in 2024, track the developable land supply and measure progress against density and intensification targets. • The key findings of this report are that: o Although the Province is yet to confirm housing starts for 2024, it appears that Kitchener has achieved at least approximately 95% of the provincially assigned 2024 housing starts target under the Building Faster Fund. o Kitchener is on track to achieve the municipal housing target of 35,000 new units by 2031. In 2024, City Council has approved 3,916 units through site specific applications and staff issued final site plan approval of 1,624 units. o Growth remained strong in the last year with 2,558 dwelling units created. o A broad range of housing types were developed in 2024 with 67% as multiple dwelling types (86% of multiple dwelling units were in the form of low to mid rise buildings — representing 58% of the total units created), and 33% in single - detached, semi-detached, townhouses, duplex, triplex and detached additional dwelling types. o Kitchener is on track to contribute towards, and in some years exceed, its minimum annual intensification target of 60%, with 57% of residential growth within the Built- up area in 2024. o With comprehensive updates to land uses and zoning within Kitchener's protected major transit station areas through Growing Together West and as of right permissions for 4 units in residential areas across Kitchener as well as future opportunities to accommodate growth through land use changes as part of Kitchener 2051: Kitchener's new Official Plan, and ongoing secondary planning *** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. *** Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance. Page 131 of 187 work in the Dundee area of southwest Kitchener, there continues to be sufficient opportunities to accommodate planned residential growth to 2051. • There are no financial implications arising from this report. • Community engagement included posting the report on City's website with the agenda in advance of the Council / Committee meeting. In addition, the monitoring report information will be presented to the Kitchener Developers Liaison Committee in March. • This report supports the delivery of core services. BACKGROUND: The purpose of this report is to provide Committee and Council with the Kitchener Growth Management Strategy: Annual Monitoring Report 2024 (Monitoring Report). The Monitoring Report is an action item of the 2009 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy (KGMS), which requires tracking of the general supply of land and the achievement of intensification and density targets on an annual basis. REPORT: The KGMS provides a long-term framework for planning where and how future residential and employment growth should occur in Kitchener. To ensure that growth contributes positively to the quality of life, the KGMS coordinates the provision of infrastructure and services with new development. The KGMS introduced a number of goals, one of which was to develop and facilitate an ongoing growth management program to manage growth -related change in an effective and co-ordinated manner (Goal 6). One of the action items of this goal is to prepare an annual monitoring report to track the supply of development opportunities and the achievement of intensification and density targets. Monitoring reports have been prepared since 2010. This is the 15th edition of the Monitoring Report and reflects the recent changes to Provincial legislation and to the Regional Official Plan (ROP) (i.e., ROP amendment 6). It includes statistics for Protected Major Transit Station Areas and other primary intensification areas that were established in Kitchener's 2014 Official Plan. This report also tracks progress towards the City of Kitchener's housing pledge that was approved in response to a request from the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, on March 20, 2023 supporting the building of 35,000 homes in Kitchener by 2031. Highlights of the 2024 Monitoring Report are: Municipal Housing Targets • Kitchener's Housing Pledge is 35,000 new housing units between March 2023 and 2031. • Council approved development applications for 3,916 units in 2024, a cumulative total of 24,414 units have received Council approvals since 2022. • Building permits were issued for 2,558 units in 2024, accounting for a total of 8,846 units since 2022. • The Province's evaluation of the housing target is based on new housing and additional residential unit starts as provided by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the new or upgraded beds in long-term care homes as provided by the Ministry of Long -Term Care. Kitchener's annual housing starts target, under the Building Faster Fund is 2,917 for 2024. Although the Province is Page 132 of 187 yet to confirm housing starts for 2024, it appears that Kitchener has achieved at least approximately 95% of the provincially assigned 2024 housing starts target under the Building Faster Fund. • Kitchener has set the stage to achieve and potentially exceed its 2031 housing target through its planning approvals, efficient processes, investments in supporting infrastructure and updates to its planning framework. Residential Development Rates • The number of new dwelling units created in 2024 (2,558) is the second lowest figure in the last five years (2020-2024) after 2022 (2,303). This was expected given the state of not only the local but national and global economy. • 67% (1,715) of the new residential units in 2024 were in the form of multiple dwellings. This was a considerable decrease compared to that in 2023 of 77% (3,068) of the new residential units in the form of multiple dwellings. • 1,477 multiple dwelling units created in 2024 were in the form of low to mid rise multiple dwellings, representing about 58% of the total new units created. • 594 duplex dwelling units were created in 2024, higher than the last five year average of 500 duplex dwelling units. The number of triplex dwelling units has also increased from 29 units in 2023 to 40 units in 2024. • 22 permits were issued for Detached Additional Dwelling Units (also referred to as backyard homes) in 2024, a slight decrease compared to 2023 (27 permits) but indicating a steady increase in the last four years (2021-2024) since detached Additional Dwelling Units were first permitted in 2021. Development within Built Up Area and Designated Greenfield Area • Building permits issued for new residential units within the Designated Greenfield Area continue to provide a varied and balanced supply of dwelling types. • The number of multiple dwelling building permits issued in the Built -Up Area exceed those that were issued within the Designated Greenfield Area. This is expected as higher density multiple dwellings are focused within intensification areas (e.g., Protected Major Transit Station Areas, nodes, and corridors). • The residential intensification level (new residential construction that occurs within the Built-up Area) saw a dip in 2024 (57%). In contrast, the residential intensification level saw a spike in 2023 (69%). • The City's 5 -year average residential intensification level is 57%, which continues to be an indication that the City is on track to contribute towards, and in some years exceed, its intensification target of 60%. Urban Growth Centre (UGC) Density • The estimated density of the Urban Growth Centre (UGC) is 220 residents and jobs per hectare. Kitchener is on track to achieve the City's Official Plan minimum density target of 225 residents and jobs per hectare by 2031. Protected Major Transit Station Area (PMTSA) Density • Of Kitchener's 10 PMTSAs, the Queen and Frederick PMTSA is currently estimated to have a density of 194 residents and jobs per hectare, exceeding its minimum density target of 160 residents and jobs per hectare. Page 133 of 187 • All of Kitchener's PMTSAs will be well positioned to achieve the prescribed minimum density targets based on the current or updated zoning through the Growing Together project. Capacity for Growth • The City continues to have the potential to accommodate its allocated employment growth to 2051 within its urban area. • With comprehensive updates to land uses and zoning within Kitchener's protected major transit station areas through Growing Together West and as of right permissions for 4 units in residential areas across Kitchener as well as future opportunities to accommodate growth through land use changes as part of Kitchener 2051: Kitchener's new Official Plan, and ongoing secondary planning work in the Dundee area of southwest Kitchener, there continues to be sufficient opportunities to accommodate planned residential growth to 2051. STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT: This report supports the delivery of core services. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: Capital Budget — The recommendation has no impact on the Capital Budget. Operating Budget — The recommendation has no impact on the Operating Budget. COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT: INFORM — This report has been posted to the City's website with the agenda in advance of the Council / Committee meeting. In addition, monitoring report information will be presented to the Kitchener Developers Liaison Committee in March. PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES: DTS-09-011 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2010-2024 Annual Monitoring Reports and Biennial Plans available at https://www.kitchener.ca/en/strategic-plans-and-protects/growth-management.aspx REVIEWED BY: Natalie Goss, Manager, Policy and Research Tim Donegani, Senior Planner APPROVED BY: Justin Readman, General Manager, Development Services ATTACHMENTS: Attachment A — Kitchener Growth Management Strategy (KGMS) Annual Monitoring Report 2024 Page 134 of 187 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy Annual Monitoring Report 2024 Page 135 of 187 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2009, Kitchener approved its Growth Management Strategy (KGMS). Kitchener is expected and planned to accommodate a relatively significant amount of residential and employment growth by 2051. The City has also been assigned a housing target by the Province to achieve the building of 35,000 homes in Kitchener by 2031 - known as Kitchener's municipal housing pledge. As part of tracking progress on Kitchener's housing pledge, the Province requires municipal planning data to be reported on a quarterly and annual basis. Kitchener tracks and monitors specific growth data in a dynamic manner. A snapshot of the data is contained within this report. The results of the 2024 growth management data continue to be encouraging. Kitchener has set the stage to achieve and potentially exceed its 2031 housing target through its planning approvals, efficient processes, investments in supporting infrastructure and updating to our planning framework. Building these housing units falls primarily to the private sector. While the number of housing starts is yet to be confirmed by the Province, it appears that at least approximately 95% of the housing target was met in 2024. However, economic and market headwinds put the achievement of the City housing starts in the next couple of years in question. The number of residents and jobs per hectare (RJs/ha) in the Urban Growth Centre (Downtown) is 220 RJs/ha, surpassing the provincially mandated minimum target of 200 RJs/ha by 2031, and approaching the City's higher Official Plan minimum target of 225 RJs/ha by 2031. Further, the estimated density of the Queen and Frederick Protected Major Transit Station Area is 194 RJs/ha, exceeding its density target of 160 RJs/ha. The City's 2024 intensification level and the 5 -year average intensification level is 57% indicating that the City is on track to contribute towards, and in some years exceed, the minimum intensification target of 60%. In 2024, building permits were issued for a total of 2,558 new residential units. 86% of new multiple dwelling units developed in 2024 were in the form of low to mid rise multiple dwellings - a substantial increase compared to that in 2023 (32%). Although the development of duplex dwelling units and detached ADUs has declined in 2024 compared to 2023, the development of triplexes has seen an increase. It is anticipated that the City's growth management program, including the strategy, framework and dynamic tracking and monitoring system, will be updated in future years to reflect changes to provincial legislation and the City's new Official Plan. 2 Page 136 of 187 CONTENTS Executive Summary....................................................................................... 2 1 Evolution of Growth Management............................................................... 5 2 Municipal Housing Target........................................................................... 7 2.1 Tracking Progress on Kitchener's Municipal Housing Target ...................... 7 2.1.1 Council Approved Units.................................................................. 7 2.1.2 Residential Development Rates ....................................................... 8 2.1.3 Provincial Evaluation of the Housing Target .................................... 10 3 Growth Forecasts & Targets..................................................................... 13 3.1 Intensification Targets....................................................................... 13 3.1.1 Intensification Level Progress........................................................ 14 3.2 Density Targets................................................................................ 17 3.2.1 Tracking Growth in Intensification Areas ......................................... 19 3.2.1.1 Existing Measures................................................................ 19 3.2.1.2 Capacity for New Growth ...................................................... 20 3.3 Estimated Land Supply...................................................................... 23 3.4 Population and Employment Allocation ................................................. 23 4 Conclusion.............................................................................................25 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Kitchener's Municipal Housing Target and Council Approved Units, since 2022............................................................................................................ 8 Figure 2. Annual Residential Development Rates in Kitchener, 2010-2024 .............8 Figure 3. Kitchener's Municipal Housing Target and Building Permits Issued, since 2022.......................................................................................................... 10 Figure 4. New Housing Starts as per CMHC, 2010-2024 .................................... 11 Figure 5. New Housing and ARU Starts, Long-term Care Beds, and Annual Housing Target for Kitchener, 2010-2031.................................................................... 12 Figure 6. Kitchener's progress towards the Municipal Housing Target, 2024......... 12 Figure 7. Urban Area Boundary, Built-up Area, and Designated Greenfield Area for Kitchener.................................................................................................... 13 Figure 8. Annual Residential Intensification Levels, 2010-2024 ......................... 15 Figure 9. 2024 Intensification Levels.............................................................. 16 Figure 10. Intensification Areas in Kitchener, Kitchener Official Plan 2014 ........... 18 3 Page 137 of 187 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Annual Housing Target for the City of Kitchener ..................................... 7 Table 2. Annual Residential Development Rates by Dwelling Type, 2023-2024....... 9 Table 3. Annual Residential Development Rates for Multiple Dwellings, 2023-2024.9 Table 4. Annual Residential Development Rates in the BUA and DGA by Dwelling Type, 2023 and 2024................................................................................... 14 Table 5. Minimum DGA Density Target, Kitchener and Region of Waterloo DGA ... 17 Table 6. Minimum Density Targets for Urban Growth Centre and Protected Major Transit Station Areas.................................................................................... 19 Table 7. Existing Measures for Primary Intensification Areas .............................. 20 Table 8. Additional Capacity Measures for Primary Intensification Areas .............. 21 Table 9. Total Measures (Existing + Additional Capacity) for Primary Intensification Areas......................................................................................................... 22 Table 10. Estimated Land Supply (capacity of lands within the urban area boundary) ................................................................................................................. 23 Table 11. Population and Employment Forecasts Allocation ............................... 23 Table 12. Population Allocation vs. Estimated Capacity ..................................... 24 Il Page 138 of 187 1 EVOLUTION OF GROWTH MANAGEMENT In the 1960s, population growth and expectations for the future in Kitchener were soaring. The population of 100,000 was expected to more than double in 20 years. Kitchener proactively undertook and participated in several long-range studies aimed at guiding the future growth of Kitchener and the surrounding area. One of these studies from 1964 entitled, Kitchener 2000 - A Regional Concept, suggested an approach for a 'Staging of Development' program. It was thought that given the predicted rapid growth, a logical economic means for developing the city was needed that would closely relate to the financial ability of the City to provide infrastructure services for an area. Following work on a new Official Plan in 1968, annual Lot Levies Reports were prepared. This report coordinated the provision of engineering services with the timing of approving new subdivisions. At the time, the annual Council -approved report led the way as an effective tool for managing growth and after several years the process became known as the 'Staging of Development'. The Staging of Development paved the way for coordinating subdivision growth in Kitchener. It was nearly 30 or more years later that many other municipalities in Ontario implemented a formal staging program. As with all processes, the need to evolve arises. After 40 years, the growth management landscape significantly changed. Kitchener became part of a provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The Regional Municipality of Waterloo (the Region) adopted a Regional Growth Management Strategy (RGMS). Social, environmental and economic objectives became more complex. These changes saw the Staging of Development program evolve and make way for the new Kitchener Growth Management Strategy (KGMS), along with its implementation tools. Approved by Kitchener Council in 2009, the KGMS provides a framework for planning where and how future residential and employment growth can be accommodated in Kitchener while positively contributing to the City's quality of life. The KGMS worked alongside the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 (the Growth Plan, 2006) which was in effect at that time and the RGMS. One of the goals (Goal 6) of the KGMS introduced an ongoing growth management program to manage growth - related change in an effective and coordinated manner. A biannual Kitchener Growth Management Plan (KGMP) and an annual Growth Management Monitoring Report (Monitoring Report) were identified as important components for the growth management program. The KGMP establishes priority levels for development and infrastructure projects for each growth area within the City. It includes the prioritization and allocation of resources towards completing initiatives that are required to move lands from the draft approval stage to registration, construction and developing complete communities. The Monitoring Report, historically, has tracked the supply of development, and the achievement of intensification and density targets for Kitchener. Monitoring Reports 5 Page 139 of 187 have been prepared and presented to Council and the development industry since 2010. The previous Monitoring Report iterations are available on the .��.ai.:ty's Girow tlh ...p .....g..ii:::..ii::::............l pa. ge. These Monitoring Reports have included a summary of Planning Act applications, residential development rates within the delineated Built- up Area (BUA) and the Designated Greenfield Area (DGA), and potential capacity to accommodate growth in the City. Kitchener has been on the leading edge with respect to the ability to track and monitor specific growth data in a dynamic manner. As part of Kitchener's ongoing growth management program the intent is to continually refine the data, improve the dynamic capabilities and provide information to help support numerous corporate studies and infrastructure projects. The Province implemented .irk.:taii"Ii............II .e..rAallatlioir� 323 I air liclip...IL............ IPII....lr:..ir:..li..ir..g............. II;; ..: . 1 :..p..rL.Jaru...q in April of 2023 and further amended it in January of 2025. The regulation complements the Province's initiative of developing standards and achieving consistency for the reporting of data required for development applications. The City of Kitchener is required, under this regulation, to report Planning Act application information on a quarterly basis and additional information on an annual basis. The City of Kitchener has submitted quarterly Planning Act application data to the Province for each quarter in 2024. The provincial legislation and the regional planning landscape have significantly changed in the last year. In May 2024, Bill 162, Get it Done Act reinstated modifications to Regional Official Plan Amendment 6 which included additional lands in southwest Kitchener to the urban area. A new Provincial Planning Statement (PPS), 2024 came into effect on October 20, 2024, integrating both the Provincial Policy Statement, 2020 and A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2020 (the Growth Plan, 2020). Further, the Region became an upper -tier municipality without planning responsibilities as of January 1, 2025. The Regional Municipality of Waterloo Official Plan (the Regional Official Plan) in effect is now deemed to be part of Kitchener's Official Plan as per Section 70.13 (2) of the Act, until the time City revokes or amends it to provide otherwise. These changes have and will continue to influence how the City plans, manages, and monitors growth. This is the 15th edition of the Monitoring Report and reflects the recent changes to provincial legislation and to the Regional Official Plan (ROP). It includes statistics for Protected Major Transit Station Areas and other primary intensification areas that were established in Kitchener's 2014 Official Plan. This report also tracks progress towards the City of Kitchener's .Ir::i..o u.:.liii.i.g........lp.11_ d. e that was approved in response to a request from the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, on March 20, 2023 supporting the building of 35,000 homes in Kitchener by 2031. C. Page 140 of 187 2 MUNICIPAL HOUSING TARGET In October 2022, the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing provided individual housing targets for 29 municipalities across Ontario and requested that each municipality submit a municipal housing pledge to the Province. 21 additional municipalities were assigned housing targets in 2023 as part of Ontario's plan to build at least 1.5 million homes by 2031. On March 20, 2023, the City of Kitchener approved aIh.ouu..j[in..g plledcle supporting the building of 35,000 homes in Kitchener by 2031. Further annual targets were assigned as each municipality's proportion of the overall 1.5 million housing goal and applying that proportion against province -wide annual targets. Table 1 summarizes the annual and overall housing target for Kitchener. These targets are independent from the intensification and density targets in the former Growth Plan and the new PPS. Table 1. Annual Housing Target for the City of Kitchener Province 110,000 125,000 150,000 175,000 1,500,000 City of Kitchener 2,567 2,917 3,500 4,083 35,000 Note - No housing targets have been assigned for 2022. However, the overall housing target of 35,000 for Kitchener is from 2022 to 2031. 2.1 TRACKING PROGRESS ON KITCHENER'S MUNICIPAL HOUSING TARGET 2.1.1 COUNCIL APPROVED UNITS Plan of subdivisions, Official Plan amendments, Zoning By-law amendments, and Part Lot Control applications require approval by Council. The number of units that are approved by Council indicate how many units are anticipated to be built in future years. It is important to note that there is a time lag between Council approval and actual development of units. The length of time it takes to get from Council approval to the start of construction varies dramatically and is highly influenced by market conditions. Figure 1 compares the municipal housing target with the number of units that Council has approved since 2022. In 2022, Council approved 37 applications with a total of 8,271 units. In 2023, Council approved 65 applications with a total of 12,227 units. In 2024, Council approved 55 applications with a total of 3,916 units. A cumulative 24,414 units have been approved since 2022. This accounts for approximately 70% of Kitchener's municipal housing target. 7 Page 141 of 187 Figure 1. Kitchener's Municipal Housing Target and Council Approved Units, since 2022 Kitchener's Municipal I iousing Farget 0ouncil Alzl'. roved Units 8,271 2022 2023 1112024 2.1.2 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT RATES Figure 2 illustrates the total number of new units for which building permits were issued annually from 2010 to 2024 and a 5 -year moving average. In 2024, building permits were issued for a total of 2,558 new residential units. This was a decrease compared to 2023. The 5 -year moving average, although steadily grown over the years, has also declined last year. Figure 2. Annual Residential Development Rates in Kitchener, 2010-2024 4500 3500 M 4000 3672 3000 3500 3143 3(.i(. 0 y 2!::x00 Fa ,;1-2417 2417 2500 2363 2558cu 20002000", v 2000 7.!4x00 1606 a 1434 a) 1,500 12y� 1323 1302 1028 1070 7.000 1000 iv !x00 500 ::::5 2. 2010 2011 2012 201.3 2014 2015 2016 2.07.7 107.8 2019 2020 2021. 2022 2023 2024 IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII111111Total New Unr�.s G.reated -5 Year Moving Average Table 2 provides the number of new units for which building permits were issued by the type of dwelling in 2023 and 2024 and the average of the last 5 -years (2020- 2024). The development of single detached, semi-detached street townhouse and cluster townhouse dwellings has been steady since since 2023. The development of Page 142 of 187 townhouses (both street townhouse and cluster townhouse) has been low in the last two years. Although the development of duplex dwelling units and detached ADUs has declined in 2024 compared to 2023, it is still higher than the 5 -year average. The development of triplexes has seen an increase. 2024 has been slow for development of multiple dwellings compared to 2023 which a record year for the number of multiple dwelling units for which building permits were issued. Table 2. Annual Residential Development Rates by Dwelling Type, 2023-2024 Single Detached 148 131 365 Semi -Detached 7 8 22 Street Townhouse 1815 Total Multiple Dwellings 141 Duplex' 688 _ 594 500 Triplex' 29 40 20 Fourplex',2 _ 33 _ Detached ADU' 27 22 17 Cluster Townhouse 0 0 27 Multiple DwellingS2,1 3,068 1,715 1,910 Total New Units 3,985 2,558 3,005 Notes: 1. In association with single detached, semi-detached and street townhouse dwelling types 2. Fourplexes have been reported as multiple dwellings in the previous years 3. Includes stacked townhouse dwellings A further breakdown of multiple dwellings is illustrated in Table 3. In 2024, building permits for nine (9) mid rise multiple dwellings were issued with a total of 1,002 units. This was up from four (4) mid rise multiple dwellings with a total of 420 units issued in 2023. The predominant form of housing created in 2024 was low to mid rise multiple dwellings representing approximately 86% of the total multiple dwelling units for which building permits were issued for. There was only one (1) high rise multiple dwellings for which building permit was issued with a total of 202 units in 2024. Table 3. Annual Residential Development Rates for Multiple Dwellings, 2023-2024 Stacked Townhouse 423(14%) Low Rise Multiple (3 storeys or fewer) 121 (4%) Mid Rise Multiple (4 to 8 storeys) 420(14%) High Rise Multiple (9 storeys or higher) 1,906(62% Additions/Conversions 198(6%) ......... Total Multiple Dwellings 3,068 Notes: (value) represents percentages of column totals 434(25%) 41 (2%) 1,002(59% 202(12%) 36 (2%0)___. 1.715 . Page 143 of 187 Figure 3 compares the municipal housing target with the number of units for building permits issued since 2022. In 2022, building permits were issued for 2,303 units. In 2023, building permits were issued for 3,985 units. In 2024, building permits were issued for 2,558 units. Building permits have been issued for a total of 8,846 units since 2022. This accounts for 25% of Kitchener's municipal housing target. Figure 3. Kitchener's Municipal Housing Target and Building Permits Issued, since 2022 Kitchener's Municipal Iiousing Iarget 3,985 2,558 Bi..dlding f'awi rnits Issued 2 303 2022 2023 111 2024 2.1.3 PROVINCIAL EVALUATION OF THE HOUSING TARGET The Province evaluates performance against the housing targets based on housing starts and additional residential units (for example, laneway, garden and basement suites) as provided by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); and other institutional housing types (such as long-term care beds) as provided by the Ministry of Long -Term Care, created in a given calendar year. CMHC defines a housing start as the beginning of construction work on a building. This is usually when the concrete has been poured for the footings or basement. Figure 4 illustrates the number of new housing starts annually since 2010 and 5 year moving average. The trend generally follows the number of building permits that are issued in Kitchener. 10 Page 144 of 187 Figure 4. New Housing Starts as per CMHC, 2010-2024 4„000 3,615 3,500 3,000 2,504 2,094 2,442 2,000 1,744 1,482 •rr. ••`• 1,500 1,302 1,086 1,263 ` ®®®® 1..„000 924 500 0 201..0 201..1.. 201.2 201.3 2014 2015 201..6 201..7 201..8 201.9 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII New Iioi.a,sing Starts ...... 5 year moving average To evaluate performance against the municipal housing target, the Province has started reporting a cumulative number of additional residential units (ARUs - this is similar to Kitchener's nomenclature of additional dwelling units and duplexes) and new or upgraded beds in long-term care homes. These have not been reported and are not available for the years prior to 2022. Figure 5 illustrates new housing starts from 2010 to 2024, ARU starts and long-term care beds in 2022 to 2024, a 5 -year moving average of total units, and annual housing targets from 2023 to 2031. A multi-year average provides a better indication of progress towards the housing target. The compounded annual growth rate of the 5 -year moving average for a 5 year period (2010 to 2024) is 7%. Kitchener exceeded its 2023 assigned housing target by 39%. While the number of housing starts in 2024 is yet to be confirmed by the Province, it appears that at least approximately 95% of the assigned housing target was met in 2024. This indicates that Kitchener is on track to achieve and potentially exceed its assigned housing target and receive provincial Building Faster Fund. 11 Page 145 of 187 Figure S. New Housing and ARU Starts, Long-term Care Beds, and Annual Housing Target for Kitchener, 2010-2031 4, 500 r.},000 am 3,615 3,579 3500 3,356 1016 4083 4083 4083 4083 4083 4083 f" ousIng Tal'Ne't IIWMEEM New i lousing Stal'ts IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII ARL) starts 4LTC: beds • • • • • • 5 -}Peal" fn oving avel"age Notes: • Total units in the figure above includes number of new housing and ARU starts as provided by CMHC, and new or upgraded beds in long-term care homes as provided by the Ministry of Long -Term Care for 2022 and 2023 only. ARU starts and new or upgraded beds in long-term care homes is not available for years prior to 2022. Figure 6 illustrates Kitchener's progress towards its provincially assigned housing target of 35,000 by 2031. Since 2022, Kitchener has seen a total of 9,293 units created, which includes new housing starts as reported by CMHC, additional residential units, and new or upgraded beds in long-term care homes. This represents approximately 26.5% of the housing target. 25,707 units are needed to meet the housing target by 2031, an average of approximately 3,672 units every year. Figure 6. Kitchener's progress towards the Municipal Housing Target, 2024 Kitchener's IVlunicipal Housing I arget 2 9'lll^w NeW Iiousing Starts, AIRU Starts and I...FC Beds 2022 2023 1112024 12 Page 146 of 187 3 GROWTH FORECASTS & TARGETS 3.1 INTENSIFICATION TARGETS The Growth Plan, 2006 defined the limits of the Region's Urban Area, including the delineated Built -Up Area (BUA), and the Designated Greenfield Area (DGA). Figure 7 shows the Urban Area Boundary, the BUA, and the DGA for Kitchener. It should be noted that in May 2024, Bill 162, Get it Done Act reinstated modifications to the Regional Official Plan Amendment 6. This included an expansion of Kitchener's Urban Area Boundary and DGA. Figure 7 reflects these modifications. Figure 7. Urban Area Boundary, Built-up Area, and Designated Greenfield Area for Kitchener The Built-up Area (BUA) represents the lands that were developed with urban uses as of 2006 and does not change year over year. Lands within the BUA have been used to implement and measure minimum residential intensification targets. Intensification refers to the development of a property, site or area at a higher density than currently exists. The residential intensification targets have been a key component to create more compact development patterns, promote energy 13 Page 147 of 187 efficiency, provide a greater variety of housing options, and better integrate transit and land use planning. Kitchener's residential intensification targets have changed overtime since they were first introduced through the 2006 Growth Plan as a Region of Waterloo intensification target. Kitchener's current minimum residential intensification target, established through the Region's Official Plan amendment number 6 (ROPA 6), is 60%. It should be noted that the PPS 2024 does not carry forward the concepts of BUA, the DGA, and the Urban Growth Centre. Further, there are no minimum residential intensification targets established in the PPS 2024. Kitchener's current Official Plan includes these concepts. The PPS 2024 does not preclude planning authorities from establishing intensification targets. The intensification target as established through ROPA 6 is in effect. 3.1.1 INTENSIFICATION LEVEL PROGRESS Annual residential development rates by dwelling type in the BUA and DGA are indicated for 2023 and 2024 in Table 4. The intensification level in 2023 was 69% and in 2024 was 57%. The City expects to see "spike" (such as in 2023) and "dip" (such as in 2024) years with respect to intensification levels as the timing of multiple dwelling developments can affect the reported development rates in a given year for a municipality the size of Kitchener. As we have seen in recent years, when there is a substantial number of multiple dwelling units created in the BUA, the City's intensification level is higher. Table 4. Annual Residential Development Rates in the BUA and DGA by Dwelling Type, 2023 and 2024 Single Detached 137 11 148 125 6 131 Semi -Detached 4 3 7 0 8 8 Street Townhouse 18 0 18 15 0 15 Duplex' 356 332 688 264 330 594 Triplex' 029 29 0 40 40 Fourplex' 2 - - - 0 33 33 Detached ADU' 1 26 27 0 22 22 Cluster Townhouse 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multiple Dwellings2,3732 2,336 3,068 708 1,007 1,715 Total New Units (3) 1,248 2,737 3,985 1,112 1,446 2,558 (31%) (69%) (100%) (43%) (57%) (100% Notes: 1. In association with single detached, semi-detached and street townhouse dwelling types 2. Fourplexes have been reported as multiple dwellings in the previous years 3. Includes stacked townhouse dwellings Figure 8 illustrates the historic annual intensification levels and 5 -year average intensification levels for the City. A multi-year average provides a better 14 Page 148 of 187 understanding, for growth monitoring purposes, of whether the City is on track to achieve the required intensification level. This continues to indicate that the City is on track to contribute towards, and in some years exceed, the minimum intensification target of 60%. Figure S. Annual Residential Intensification Levels, 2010-2024 90% 80Y., 70% 60% 50% 40% 'AO% 20% 10% 0% 20.1.0 20LL 2.012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20.1.7 20.1.8 20L9 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 -Intensffication Level 43% 56% 25% 58% 54% 49% 41% 44% 53% 78% 69% 58% 32% 69% 57% 5 year average I ntensi fication Level 39% 41% 39% 45% 47% 48% 45% 49% 48% 53% 57% 60% 59% 61% 57% -Intensification Level (%) -5 year average lintensifficadon I evel 15 Page 149 of 187 Figure 9 illustrates the location of new units created in 2024 within Kitchener's BUA, DGA and built boundary line. The figure shows that location of new units created in 2024 were spread out across the BUA and the DGA. Figure 9. 2024 Intensification Levels 16 Page 150 of 187 3.2 DENSITY TARGETS Kitchener's Official Plan establishes a density target of 55 residents and jobs combined per gross hectare for areas serving primarily a residential function and 40 residents and jobs combined per gross hectare for areas serving primarily an employment function within the Designated Greenfield Area (DGA). Designated greenfield area (DGA) are lands within the urban area but outside of delineated built- up areas that are designated for development and are required to accommodate forecasted growth. Through ROPA 6, the minimum DGA density target for Kitchener and the Region have been revised to 65 and 59 residents and jobs combined per gross hectare by 2051, respectively (Table 5). Table S. Minimum DGA Density Target, Kitchener and Region of Waterloo DGA Kitchener DGA Region of Waterloo 65 59 It is to be noted the PPS 2024 does not establish minimum density targets for DGA but rather encourages large and fast-growing municipalities, including Kitchener, to plan for a target of 50 residents and jobs combined per gross hectare in designated growth areas. Intensification areas are identified throughout the City in both the BUA and the DGA as key locations where growth is to be focused. Kitchener's primary intensification areas include the Urban Growth Centre (UGC), Protected Major Transit Station Areas (PMTSA's), City Nodes, Community Nodes, and Urban Corridors. The Secondary intensification areas include Neighbourhood Nodes, Arterial Corridors and other site- specific opportunities. Figure 10 shows the primary and secondary intensification areas. 17 Page 151 of 187 Figure 10. Intensification Areas in Kitchener, Kitchener Official Plan 2014 The Growth Plan, 2020 provided a minimum density target of 200 residents and jobs combined per hectare to be achieved for Kitchener's UGC (Downtown) by 2031. Although the Regional Official Plan notes the same density for Kitchener's UGC (Downtown) as the Growth Plan, the Kitchener Official Plan sets a minimum density target of 225 residents and jobs combined per gross hectare. The PPS 2024 did not maintain the concept of an UGC and therefore does not establish a minimum density target for Kitchener's UGC. The Growth Plan, 2020 has further established a minimum density of 160 residents and jobs combined per hectare for PMTSA's that are served by light rail transit or bus rapid transit, as is the case in Kitchener. There is no timeline associated with density Page 152 of 187 targets for PMTSA's. The density targets established for PMTSA's are carried forward in the PPS 2024. ROPA 6 sets the same minimum target for all of the PMTSA's in Kitchener except for the Block Line PMTSA which is to achieve a minimum density target of 80 residents and jobs combined per hectare. Table 6 summarizes the minimum density targets established for the UGC and the PMTSA's in Kitchener. Table 6. Minimum Density Targets for Urban Growth Centre and Protected Major Transit Station Areas PMTSAs (no timing noted) NA Grand River Hospital 160 Central Station 160 Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hall 160 Queen plus Frederick _ 160 Kitchener Market 160 Borden 160 Mill 160 Block Line 80 Fairway 160 SDortsworld 160 3.2.1 TRACKING GROWTH IN INTENSIFICATION AREAS 3.2.1.1 Existing Measures Table 7 quantifies the existing number of dwelling units, residents, non-residential floor area, jobs and density measure (residents and jobs per hectare) for the primary intensification areas within Kitchener's BUA and DGA. The non-residential floor area and job estimates have not been adjusted to account for changes in office and work from home trends brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Region has undertaken a workplace count survey in 2024 and it is expected that the results from this survey (unavailable at the time of writing this report) will inform updates to the non-residential floor area and job estimates that reflect pandemic related changes to employment. Interest in residential development has remained robust. The estimated density of the Urban Growth Centre (UGC), Queen and Frederick PMTSA, and Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hall PMTSA is 220 RJs/ha, 194 RJs/ha, and 137 RJs/ha respectively in 2024. The Queen and Frederick PMTSA has already met its density target of 160 RJs/ha. 19 Page 153 of 187 Table 7. Existing Measures for Primary Intensification Areas 11 Urban 1 s Growth Centres z 107 5,169 8,349 0 841,264 1 15,233 220 PMTSAs 715 14,523 29,460 1,685,926 25,189 76 Grand River Hospital 84 1,621 3,474 203,964 3,964 88 Central Station 68 1,235 2,646 278,132 3,456 89 Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hal 12 59 2,040 3,791 502,413 4,311 137 Queen and Frederick 45 2,160 4,29 164,523 4,588 194 Kitchener Market 49 1,463 3,138 58,385 838 81 Borden 51 537 1,236 105,864 1,181 48 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mill 89 1,131 2,736 161,240 1,000 42 Block Line 99 1,803 3,484 46,193 717 42 Fairway 92 2,342 4,286 101,782 2,913 78 Sportsworld 79 191 540 63,430 2,220 35 City Y 165 792 1,451 63,604 3,248 28 Community Nodes 234 3,868 6,933 87,665 3,813 46 Urban Corridors 280 2,143 4,026 248,338 6,636 38 Total for Primary Intensification Areas2 1 394 21 326 41 869 2 085 533 38 886 ' 58 Notes: 1. UGC Data is provided by the Region based on Census, building permit and workplace count statistics. Job estimate for the UGC is for 2021 and is based on Census 2016. The estimate has not been adjusted because of accuracy concerns for employment data with Census 2021 undertaken during Provincial lockdown. 2. Boundary for the Urban Growth Centre overlaps with the boundary of the Central Station, Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hall, and the Queen plus Frederick PMTSA boundaries. Therefore, Urban Growth Centre data has not been included in the subtotal for primary intensification areas. 3.2.1.2 Capacity for New Growth Table 8 explores the estimated potential for accommodating new development within the primary intensification areas based on existing zoning only. The primary intensification areas are well positioned with the existing zoning in place to accommodate some of the projected growth in Kitchener. New development applications and land use/zoning reviews such as the Growing Together project and on-going secondary planning work will continue to refine the planning framework and add to the capacity to accommodate growth in these areas. 20 Page 154 of 187 Table 8. Additional Capacity Measures for Primary Intensification Areas 50% Scenario The maximum amount of development permitted in the as -of -right zoning represents the City's total capacity to accommodate growth given current planning tools. It is anticipated that only some parcels within intensification areas will be redeveloped within the short or medium term for a variety of reasons. Some parcels will be developed at lower densities than the maximum permitted by zoning. Still others will receive zoning by-law amendments to exceed these maximums. In order to account for these factors, this report evaluates 50% of the maximum permitted by zoning as a reasonable estimate or proxy of opportunities for growth. As -of -right zoning permissions do not include any changes to zoning proposed through Growing Together project as it is under appeal. Urban Growth INN= Centre' 107 1,811 3,200 233,936 9,216 116 Major Transit Station Area S2 715 12,065 22,614 824,915 27,128 70 Grand River Hospital 84 1,394 2,554 76,317 2,893 65 Central Station' 68 1,608 3,069 142,058 4,867 116 Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hall' 59 1,148 2,073 52,229 3,306 91 Queen plus Frederick' 45 945 1,894 124,370 4,295 138 Kitchener Market 49 1,104 1,970 59,130 1,946 80 Borden 51 1,593 2,848 102,1232,980 115 Mill 89 2,158 3,981 32,122 1,879 66 Block Line 99 1,332 2,511 143,397 2,959 55 Fairway 92 390 1,012 18,703 695 19 Sportsworld 79 393 703 74,465 1,308 26 City Y 165 4,011 7,193 603,950 12,874 122 Community Nodes 234 9,026 16,686 655,141 17,937 148 Urban Corridors 280 5,150 9,526 395,065 10,097 70 Total for Primary 1,394 30,251 56,019 2,479,071 Intensification Areas' 68,036 89 Notes: 1. Boundary for the Urban Growth Centre overlaps with the boundary of the Central Station, Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hall, and the Queen plus Frederick PMTSA boundaries. Therefore, Urban Growth Centre data has not been included in the subtotal for primary intensification areas. 2. Additional capacity measures for MTSAs do not account as -of -right zoning permissions through the Growing Together project as it is under appeal. Table 9 provides an account of the total number of dwelling units, residents, non- residential floor area, jobs and density measure (residents and jobs per hectare) for the primary intensification areas within Kitchener's BUA and DGA. Given the additional opportunities for redevelopment, based on existing zoning, there is capacity and potential to accommodate more people and jobs within Kitchener's primary intensification areas. 21 Page 155 of 187 The UGC is well positioned to achieve its density target of 225 residents and jobs per hectare. Further, six (6) PMTSAs (Central Station, Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hall, Queen plus Frederick, Kitchener Market, Borden, and Block Line) are also well positioned to meet the prescribed minimum density targets based on the current zoning. However, four (4) PMTSAs (Grand River Hospital, Mill, Fairway, and Sportsworld) may not be able to achieve their prescribed density target of 160 residents and jobs per hectare. These estimates are based on current zoning and do not take into account the zoning framework for the PMTSAs through the Growing Together project. Growing Together West has been approved but is not yet in effect and at this time Council's consideration of updated land use and zoning for Growing Together East is expected in early Q2 2025. When new zoning regulations come into effect, the City will be well positioned to meet or exceed its minimum density targets for all of the PMTSAs. Other primary intensification areas do not have assigned density targets but add considerable population and employment to contribute to Kitchener's growth allocation. Table 9. Total Measures (Existing + Additional Capacity) for Primary Intensification Areas Urban Growth Centre' 107 6,980 11,549 mom 1,075,200 24,449 336 Major Transit Station Areas2715 26,588 52,074 2,510,841 52,317 146 Grand River Hospital 84 3,015 6,028 280,281 6,858 153 Central Station' 68 2,843 5,715 420,190 8,323 205 Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hall' 59 3,188 5,864 554,642 7,616 228 Queen plus Frederick' 45 3,105 6,023 288,893 8,883 332 Kitchener Market 49 2,567 5,108 117,515 2,784 160 Borden 51 2,130 4,085 207,987 4,161 162 Mill 89 3,289 6,717 193,362 2,880 108 Block Line 99 3,135 5,994 189,590 3,676 97 Fairway 92 2,732 5,298 120,485 3,608 97 Sportsworld 79 584 1,243 137,895 3,528 61 City Nodes 165 4,803 8,645 6671554 16,122 150 Community Nodes ........Urban 234 12,894 23,618 742,806 21,750 194 Corridors 280 7,293 13,552 643,403 16,733 108 Total for Primary Intensification Areas'' - 11. 1,394 51,577 97,888 4,564,604 106 922 . . 147 Notes: 1. Boundary for the Urban Growth Centre overlaps with the boundary of the Central Station, Victoria Park and Kitchener City Hall, and the Queen plus Frederick PMTSA boundaries. Therefore, Urban Growth Centre data has not been included in the subtotal for primary intensification areas. 2. Additional capacity measures for MTSAs do not account as -of -right zoning permissions through the Growing Together project as it is under appeal. 22 Page 156 of 187 3.3 ESTIMATED LAND SUPPLY The estimated land supply for Kitchener is a total of the potential capacity within the primary or secondary intensification areas, and the potential supply from registered, draft approved and in -circulation subdivisions. As development moves from raw land through the development approvals stage and eventually to construction, the land supply estimates become more accurate. Table 10 illustrates that the City's land supply includes a potential capacity of approximately 45,810 dwelling units and 2.97 million square metres of non- residential floor space. The estimated supply of dwelling units and non-residential floor space is further anticipated to increase once zoning is updated based on land use/zoning reviews such as the Growing Together project comes into effect and on-going secondary planning work. Timing of development from the estimated supply of units, however, is influenced by many factors including infrastructure timing, landowner priorities and market forces. Table 10. Estimated Land Supply (capacity of lands within the urban area boundary) 3.4 POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATION A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2020 (the Growth Plan, 2020) provided population and employment forecasts for all upper -tier and single -tier municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe area (GGH). The growth forecasts are further allocated to area municipalities by the Region. The Region's and Kitchener's population and employment allocation as per Regional Official Plan Amendment No. 6 (ROPA 6), is identified in Table 11. Kitchener is forecast to grow to 409,200 people and 170,500 jobs by 2051 representing an increase of about 52 percent and 54 percent respectively between 2021 and 2051. Population and employment forecasts are being updated as part of City of Kitchener's new Official Plan. These forecasts will be used as the basis for planning and managing growth to 2051. Table 11. Population and Employment Forecasts Allocation Notes: 23 Page 157 of 187 2021 2051 2021 2051 City of Kitchener 269,100 409,200 111,000 170,500 Other Area Municipalities 347,900 513,800 191,000 299,500 Region of Waterloo 617,000 923,000 302,000 470,000 1. Population figures in this table show census -based population plus four percent under coverage. As such, it does not include university and college students who temporarily reside in the Region (either in student residences or other accommodation) to study at post -secondary institutions. 2. All population and employment in this table represent mid -year figures. Table 12 compares the current population and employment capacity with the population and employment allocations provided by the Region of Waterloo. Kitchener's 2024 mid -year population estimated by the Region is now 283,606 with approximately 2,700 more people than reported in mid -year 2023. Table 12 also estimates that the City has an existing supply/capacity of developable land to accommodate more jobs than the 2051 employment allocation by the Region. However, it shows that there is a shortfall with respect to 2051 population allocation by the Region. As previously discussed in this report, the estimated capacity for Kitchener is based on existing zoning. It does not include zoning updates anticipated through land use / zoning reviews such as the Growing Together West project (under appeal), Growth Together East (Council consideration expected early Q2 2025) and on-going secondary planning work. Further, this report is based on intensification areas established as per the 2014 Official Plan that uses a 2031 planning horizon. There is sufficient zoned capacity to meet the City's 2031 population forecast of 319,500. Additionally, updated planning permissions will occur as part of Kitchener's new Official Plan project: Kitchener 2051, and ongoing secondary planning work in the Dundee area of southwest Kitchener and Hidden Valley. This ongoing work will ensure that there are sufficient opportunities to accommodate planned residential growth within the urban area boundary to 2051. Table 12. Population Allocation vs. Estimated Capacity 24 Page 158 of 187 Existing' 283,606 108,234 Capacity 90,118 77,372 Total 373,724 185,606 2051 Allocation 409,200 170,500 Difference (shortfall) (35,476) 15,106 Notes: 1. Unofficial interim population and employment estimate as of mid -year 2024, Region of Waterloo 24 Page 158 of 187 4 CONCLUSION Kitchener has set the stage to achieve and potentially exceed its 2031 housing target through its planning approvals, efficient processes, investments in supporting infrastructure and updating to our planning framework. Building these housing units falls primarily to the private sector. While the number of housing starts is yet to be confirmed by the Province, it appears that at least approximately 95% of the housing target was met in 2024. However, economic and market headwinds put the achievement of the City housing starts in the next couple of years in question. In 2024, building permits were issued for a total of 2,558 new residential units. A broad range of housing types have been developed in 2024 with 67% as multiple dwelling types (86% of multiple dwelling units were in the form of low to mid rise buildings - representing 58% of the total new units), and 33% in single -detached, semi-detached, townhouses, duplex, triplex and detached additional dwelling types. Although the development of duplex dwelling units and detached ADUs has declined in 2024 compared to 2023, the development of triplexes has seen an increase. The City's 2024 intensification level and the 5 -year average intensification level is 57% indicating that the City is on track to contribute towards, and in some years exceed, the minimum intensification target of 60%. The number of residents and jobs per hectare (RJs/ha) in the Urban Growth Centre (Downtown) is 220 RJs/ha, surpassing the provincially mandated minimum target of 200 RJs/ha by 2031, and approaching the City's higher Official Plan minimum target of 225 RJs/ha by 2031. Further, the estimated density of the Queen and Frederick Protected Major Transit Station Area is 194 RJs/ha, exceeding its minimum density target of 160 RJs/ha. It is anticipated that the City's growth management program, including the strategy, framework and dynamic tracking and monitoring system, will be updated in future years to reflect: changes to provincial legislation; and, the City's new Official Plan. With updates to land uses and zoning within Kitchener's protected major transit station areas, land use reviews that will occur as part of Kitchener's new Official Plan, and ongoing secondary planning work in the Dundee area of southwest Kitchener and Hidden Valley, there continues to be sufficient opportunities to accommodate planned residential and employment growth to 2051. 25 Page 159 of 187