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HomeMy WebLinkAboutINS-2025-399 - 2025/2026 Natural Gas RatesStaff Report Infrastructure Services Department www.kitchener.co REPORT TO: Finance and Corporate Services Committee DATE OF MEETING: October 6, 2025 SUBMITTED BY: Greg St. Louis, Director, Gas & Water Utilities, 519-783-8792 PREPARED BY: Khaled Abu-Eseifan, Manager, Gas Supply and Engineering, 519- 783-7953 WARD(S) INVOLVED: Ward(s) DATE OF REPORT: September 17, 2025 REPORT NO.: INS -2025-399 SUBJECT: 2025/2026 Natural Gas Rates RECOMMENDATION: That Kitchener Utilities' natural gas variable and fixed delivery rates be approved as proposed in report INS -2025-399 - Attachment A, for all Kitchener delivery customers effective January 1, 2026 REPORT HIGHLIGHTS: • The purpose of this report is to provide recommendations to changes Kitchener Utilities natural gas delivery rates in 2026. The report also provides a review of the performance of the natural gas supply program over the course of 2025. • The key finding of this report is that new quarterly approach to supply rate setting used in 2025 achieved its goal by reducing rate shock, improving market responsiveness and improving financial planning. The report also recommends changes to delivery rates as per Attachment A with effect from January 1, 2026. • The financial implications of natural gas delivery rates for Kitchener Utilities residential customers in 2026 will be an increase of approximately $40 annually or 7.9%. • This report supports the delivery of core services. BACKGROUND: This report provides information about 2026 budget requirements and the recommended changes to delivery rates to meet these requirements. The report also provides information about supply rate changes that were made in 2025 along with projection for gas prices in 2026. In 2025, the Council approved Gas Supply Rate Policy allowed KU staff to change supply rate quarterly through delegated authority. The new policy aims to increase the market responsiveness of KU's supply rate and avoid rate shock to our customers. In addition, KU *** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. *** Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance. Page 54 of 77 continues to follow Council endorsed Gas Purchase Policy for the procurement of natural gas. This policy outlines how much of our natural gas portfolio can be purchased in advance and on the spot market. It provides the ability to blend our natural gas rate with fixed and market price natural gas. The blending of fixed and market price natural gas is used to reduce volatility in prices to keep rates stable for customers. Along with the Gas Supply Rate policy, the two policies allowed KU to strike a balance between market responsiveness and price volatility. The two policies reduced the risk or rate shocks and enhanced the financial planning process. REPORT: Kitchener Utilities natural gas rates have two components: gas supply, and gas delivery. The gas supply program is responsible for the purchase of the gas commodity and transportation of natural gas to Kitchener customers and is a pass-through cost program. The delivery program is responsible for delivery of natural gas to customers. This includes billing, meter reading, capital, maintenance, and operating costs of the distribution system. This report will provide information to support decision making process in the following areas: • Delivery rates: o Operating budget pressures o Rates increases as proposed in Attachment A The report will also provide information for review is these areas: • Supply rate- * 2025 supply rate review o Natural gas supply rate outlook for 2026 Gas Delivery Rate: Gas delivery charges consist of two components: a daily fixed charge and a variable rate. There are four Delivery Rate Groups—M1, M2, M4, and M5—each serving customers with different volumetric requirements (see Attachment A for full definitions). Delivery revenues fund all Kitchener Utilities (KU) operating and capital programs, as well as the cost of Enbridge's T3 contract with KU. These revenues are weather -dependent, with mild winters leading to reduced gas sales. To mitigate the impact of weather variability on revenues, KU relies on its Delivery Stabilization Reserve. Changes to delivery rates are typically required at least once a year to account for cost inflation and to fund new programs or requirements. For 2026, new program costs are offset by higher -than -budgeted revenues in 2025 due to increased gas sales during a colder winter. Nevertheless, KU recommends increasing all delivery rate components across all rate groups effective January 1, 2026, to cover the costs of additional requirements for 2026 and beyond. These requirements include - 1 . nclude: 1. Aging Infrastructure Capital Program: As outlined in the 2025 Asset Management Plan (AMP) Staff Report (FIN -2025- 255), KU must address a $61 million gap over the next ten years to maintain the condition of its gas infrastructure. KU proposes a phased approach over five years to provide $26.96 million in additional funding through moderate, phased increases to delivery rates, thereby avoiding sudden and significant rate impacts. Page 55 of 77 2. Demand Side Management (DSM) Program: As noted in Staff Report No. INS -2025-350, the Provincial Government launched the Home Renovation Savings Program (HRSP) for Ontario residents and requested participation from all local gas utilities. KU is working with IESO and Enbridge, the main program providers to administer its involvement, as requested by the Province. To support forecasted rebates, KU plans to increase the DSM program budget over the next three years. KU is in negotiations on a fixed administrative cost with Enbridge to manage the program on its behalf. A phased approach is again used to minimize customer rate impacts. 3. Other Programs: Inflationary increases across all other programs and additional funding for critical internal projects (SAP) have been incorporated into the 2026 budget and five-year projections (see Attachment B). Budget pressures over the next five years are provided in Attachment B. Using the phased approach, KU recommends annual delivery rate increases of 6-8% to address these pressures. Gas Supply Rate: The natural gas supply program is a pass-through program. The rules around what is included in the supply rate are governed by Ontario Energy Board (OEB). Although Kitchener Utilities are not required to seek OEB approval to change their rates, they are required to abide by OEB rules and regulations about how to allocate costs and how to manage distribution services. Only the cost of gas commodity, transportation and related costs can be included in the supply rate. These costs are reviewed frequently and savings, or losses have to be passed directly to customers as the program operates as non-profit. The supply rate is calculated based on costs required to acquire the gas and the forecasted gas volumes to be delivered to customers. The gas volumes are weather dependant and the natural gas commodity market prices usually fluctuate with supply, demand, and weather factors. To mitigate market price volatility, Kitchener Utilities (KU) relies on three key tools to ensure that the supply rate tracks market prices—both upward and downward—while smoothing out spikes and avoiding rate shock for customers. These tools are: 1. Natural Gas Purchase Policy This policy allows KU to purchase gas using a blended portfolio of hedging (fixed- price contracts) and market-based purchases. • Fixed-price contracts offer rate stability but carry risk, as they rely on market speculation. • Market-based purchases provide responsiveness to current prices but can introduce significant volatility, complicate financial planning, and impact cash flow. Page 56 of 77 KU's blended approach sets limits on the proportion of hedging in the portfolio to reduce the risk of "out -of -the -money" contracts while maintaining responsiveness to market conditions. 2. Gas Supply Rate Policy Implemented in 2025, this policy enables KU to adjust its supply rate quarterly through delegated authority. • This ensures that the supply rate reflects market conditions and that both cost increases and savings are passed on to customers promptly. • The policy has improved market responsiveness, reduced rate shock, and enhanced financial planning by decreasing reliance on long-term market forecasts. 3. Gas Supply Stabilization Reserve The stabilization reserve allows KU to absorb sudden market price fluctuations and soften rate spikes. • The reserve balance must remain within policy thresholds to ensure it can cover forecast uncertainties. • Since the implementation of the Gas Supply Rate Policy in 2025, the need for this reserve has become less critical, as forecast uncertainties have been reduced and therefore the goal is to maintain the stabilization reserve at the minimum level supported through policy. 2025 Natural pas supply rate review In 2025, gas market prices increased significantly compared to previous years. Gas prices in January 2025 were more than double the prices of October 2024 and the average price of winter 2025 (January, February, March) was $0.20/m3 compared to $0.11/m3 for the similar period in 2024. This spike was caused by colder than normal winter and the uncertainty of trade war with the USA. KU used a measured approach to increase gas supply rate while avoiding rate shock to customers. A summary of supply rate changes in 2025 is provided in Attachment C. For average KU residential customer, the annual cost of gas supply in 2025 is marginally lower than Enbridge. 2026 Natural gas supply rate forecast In 2026, gas prices are forecasted to spike again during winter months however, gas market prices depend on weather and supply and demand factors, and these factors indicate a mild increase at this time. Kitchener Utilities absorbed the last spike with moderate rate increases and is in very good financial position to absorb the next one with minimal rate increases. The projected supply budget for 2026 is shown in Attachment C. The graph below shows KU, EGI and gas market prices over the last 5 years along with a forecast for 2026. KU will continue to follow prudent gas purchase practices, change gas supply rate quarterly as needed to avoid rate shock and ensure smooth and measured response to market spikes and maintain the supply stabilization reserve over the minimum threshold. Page 57 of 77 Fzgnre 1: Natural gas supply rates comparison STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT: This report supports the delivery of core services FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: The planned delivery rate increase will cover the additional capital and operational requirements for 2026 and will support the requirements of the next 5 years. To reduce rate impacts, KU will rely on the stabilization reserve to support 2026 budget requirement by withdrawing $726K from the stabilization reserve. The stabilization reserve balance is projected to be over the minimum threshold by the end of 2026 assuming average weather conditions. The reserve balance may drop under the minimum threshold if gas sales decrease due to a mild winter. KU staff will continue to monitor gas delivery revenues and may adjust future rate recommendations accordingly. The 5 -year operating budget projection for gas delivery is presented in Attachment B. The planned delivery rate increase will have an impact of $40 per year or 7.9% on Kitchener Utilities average M 1 residential customer. KU will continue to adjust the supply rate quarterly based on demand and market conditions as needed. The supply stabilization reserve is projected to be over the minimum threshold by the end of 2026. The supply rate changes will be set to maintain the balance of the stabilization reserve within the policy thresholds and with minimum rate impacts to customers. The 5 -year operating budget projection for gas supply is presented in Attachment C. Page 58 of 77 NG Market. Price vs KU Gas Rate vs Enbridge Gas Rate 40.0© I Forward market price 35.00 r o � m r s I n�, 30.00 r x r ^ „ p W I u u u 25.00 o q r � u .a "" ....... "L........ u E s�-20.00 � ... ' n ✓ y � J h n 10.0© _.mm I 5.00 I II �y 0.00 f N c N r c1 ,v ry cli rry en m en m ct cr ct cr ul rn rn Ln LD 0 LD N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1V N r'V N N N N �a N 0 ° d d ° 4 d 4 d d d d7 d —� KU Gas Rate - cents per m3 Enbridge Gas rate - cents per m3 ------- °'Market" Fzgnre 1: Natural gas supply rates comparison STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT: This report supports the delivery of core services FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: The planned delivery rate increase will cover the additional capital and operational requirements for 2026 and will support the requirements of the next 5 years. To reduce rate impacts, KU will rely on the stabilization reserve to support 2026 budget requirement by withdrawing $726K from the stabilization reserve. The stabilization reserve balance is projected to be over the minimum threshold by the end of 2026 assuming average weather conditions. The reserve balance may drop under the minimum threshold if gas sales decrease due to a mild winter. KU staff will continue to monitor gas delivery revenues and may adjust future rate recommendations accordingly. The 5 -year operating budget projection for gas delivery is presented in Attachment B. The planned delivery rate increase will have an impact of $40 per year or 7.9% on Kitchener Utilities average M 1 residential customer. KU will continue to adjust the supply rate quarterly based on demand and market conditions as needed. The supply stabilization reserve is projected to be over the minimum threshold by the end of 2026. The supply rate changes will be set to maintain the balance of the stabilization reserve within the policy thresholds and with minimum rate impacts to customers. The 5 -year operating budget projection for gas supply is presented in Attachment C. Page 58 of 77 Kitchener Utilities supports the Waterloo Region Energy Assistance Program. This program offers support to customers facing challenges paying their utility bills. The program is administered by the Region of Waterloo and offers support for both electricity and natural gas bills. COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT: INFORM — This report has been posted to the City's website with the agenda in advance of the council / committee meeting. Kitchener Utilities will work with the Corporate Communications and Marketing Division to ensure that the rate change details are included in the Council Key Decisions media brief. A bill insert on delivery rate changes will be distributed with utility bills along with posting information about the change on the Kitchener Utilities' and City websites. Future supply rate changes will be posted on the Kitchener Utilities' and City websites along with bill message on the utility bills. A public notice will also be placed in the paper. PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES: INS -2024-383 2024/2025 Natural Gas rates FIN -2025-255 Asst Management Plans (AMP) — Proposed Levels of Service INS -2025-350 Home Renovation Savings Program APPROVED BY: Denise McGoldrick, General Manager Infrastructure Services. ATTACHMENTS: Attachment A — Natural Gas Rates Attachment B — 5 -year operating budget projection — Gas Delivery Attachment C — 5 -year operating budget projection — Gas Supply Page 59 of 77 Attachment A CORPORATION OF THE CITY OF KITCHENER NATURAL GAS GENERAL SERVICE RATE Ml Applicability To residential and non -contract commercial and industrial customers that consume less than 50,000 m3 per year. Rate Daily Fixed Charge And $ .8500 SUPPLY COMMODITY VARIABLE DELIVERY NET RATE ¢/m3 ¢/m3 ¢/m3 20.00 11.5871 31.5871 Meter Readings Gas consumption by each customer under this rate schedule shall be determined by periodic meter readings, provided that in circumstances beyond the control of the Corporation, such as strikes or non -access to a meter, The Corporation may estimate the monthly consumption between the meter readings and render a monthly bill to the customer. Effective January 1, 2026 for Delivery rate. Supply rate to change quarterly, as necessary Policv Relating to Terms of Service 1) Gas purchased under this rate schedule shall not be resold, directly or indirectly by the customer, unless resold as "motor vehicle fuel gas", as that term is defined in Ontario Regulation 805/82. 2) Customers who temporarily discontinue service during any twelve consecutive months without payment of the monthly fixed charge for the months in which the gas is temporarily disconnected shall pay for disconnection and reconnection. Page 60 of 77 CORPORATION OF THE CITY OF KITCHENER NATURAL GAS GENERAL SERVICE RATE — M2 Applicability To residential and non -contract commercial and industrial customers that consume 50,000 m3 and more per year. Rate Daily Fixed Charge And $2.5400 SUPPLY COMMODITY VARIABLE DELIVERY NET RATE RATE ¢/m3 ¢/m3 ¢/m3 20.0000 10.3523 30.3523 Meter Readines Gas consumption by each customer under this rate schedule shall be determined by periodic meter readings, provided that in circumstances beyond the control of the Corporation, such as strikes or non -access to a meter, The Corporation may estimate the monthly consumption between the meter readings and render a monthly bill to the customer. Effective January 1, 2026 for Delivery rate. Supply rate to change quarterly, as necessary Policy Relating to Terms of Service 2) Gas purchased under this rate schedule shall not be resold, directly or indirectly by the customer, unless resold as "motor vehicle fuel gas", as that term is defined in Ontario Regulation 805/82. 3) Customers who temporarily discontinue service during any twelve consecutive months without payment of the monthly fixed charge for the months in which the gas is temporarily disconnected shall pay for disconnection and reconnection. Page 61 of 77 CORPORATION OF THE CITY OF KITCHENER NATURAL GAS FIRM INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL CONTRACT RATE — M4 Applicability To a customer who A. Enters into a contract for a minimum term of one year, that specifies a daily contracted demand (CD) between 2,400 m3 and 140,870 m3 inclusive Rate I . Bills will be rendered monthly and shall be the total of i) A Fixed Demanc ii) A Variable Dell iii) A Monthly Gas Charge: First 8,450 m3 of the daily contracted demand, 76.9000 ¢/m3 Next 19,700 m3 of the daily contracted demand, 35.8000 ¢/m3 All m3 over 28,150m3 of the daily contracted demand, 16.8000 ¢/m3 very Charge (incl. storage): First 422,250 m3 delivered per month 2.2000 ¢/m3 Next volume equal to 15 days use of CD 2.2000 ¢/m3 Remainder of volumes delivered in the month 2.2000 ¢/m3 I SuDDIV Commodity 20.0000 0/m3 I 2. Over -run Charge Authorized overrun gas is available provided that it is authorized by the Corporation in advance. The Corporation will not unreasonably withhold authorization. Overrun means gas taken on any day in excess of 103% of contracted daily demand. Authorized overrun will be available April I through October 31, and will be paid for at the rate of 4.9323 ¢/m3 for the delivery and, if applicable, the total gas supply rate of 20.00 ¢/m3. Unauthorized overrun in any month shall be paid for at the rate of 11.5871 ¢/m3 for the delivery and, if applicable, the total gas supply charge for system -supplied volumes at the rate of 20.00 ¢/m3. Minimum Annual Charge In each contract year, the customer shall purchase from the Corporation or pay for a minimum volume of gas equivalent to 150 days use of contracted demand. Overrun gas volumes will not contribute to the minimum volume. In the event that the customer shall not take such minimum volume, the customer shall pay an amount equal to the deficiency from the minimum volume times a rate of 2.5341 ¢/m3 for the delivery charge and if applicable, a total gas supply charge of 20.00 ¢/m3. In the event that the contract period exceeds one year, the annual minimum volume will be pro -rated for any part year. Effective January 1, 2026 for Delivery rate. Supply rate to change quarterly, as necessary Policy Relating to Terms of Service Gas purchased under this rate shall not be resold, directly or indirectly by the customer. Page 62 of 77 CORPORATION OF THE CITY OF KITCHENER NATURAL GAS INTERRUPTIBLE INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL CONTRACT RATE — M5 Applicability To a customer who: A) Enters into a contract for a minimum term of one year that specifies a daily contracted demand (CD) between 2,400 m3 and 140,870 m3 inclusive and, B) Has an alternate fuel supply and combustion system available. Rate I. The price of all gas delivered shall be determined on the basis of the following schedules: i) Monthly Fixed Charge $825.00 a. and ii) Delivery Charge (incl. storage): Dailv Contracted Demand Level (CD) 2,400 m3 < CD < 17,000 m3 3.8539 ¢/m3 17,000 m3 < CD < 30,000 m3 2.7611 ¢/m3 30,000 m3 < CD < 50,000 m3 2.6859 ¢/m3 50,000 m3 < CD < 70,000 m3 2.6332 ¢/m3 70,000 m3 < CD < 100,000 m3 2.5955 ¢/m3 100,000 m3 < CD < 140,870 m3 2.5584 ¢/m3 iii) A Monthly Gas Supply Charge: Supply Commodity 20.00 ¢/m3 2. Over -run Charge Overrun gas is available provided that it is authorized by the Corporation in advance. The Corporation will not unreasonably withhold authorization. Overrun means gas taken on any day in excess of 105% of contracted daily demand. Unauthorized overrun gas taken in any month shall be paid for at the rate of 11.5871 ¢/m3 for the delivery and, if applicable, the total gas supply charge for system -supplied volumes at the rate of 20.00 ¢/m3. Unauthorized Overrun Non -Compliance Rate: Unauthorized overrun gas taken any month during a period when a notice of interruption is in effect shall be paid for at the rate of 234.12 ¢/m3 ($60 per GJ) for the delivery. Minimum Annual Charge In each contract year, the customer shall purchase from the Corporation or pay for a minimum volume of gas equivalent to 150 days use of contracted demand. Overrun volumes will not contribute to the minimum volume. In the event that the customer shall not take such minimum volume, the customer shall pay an amount equal to the deficiency from the minimum volume multiplied by 5.8478 ¢/m3 for the delivery charge and if applicable, a gas supply charge of 20.00 ¢/m3. Effective January 1, 2026 for Delivery rate. Supply rate to change quarterly, as necessary Policy Relating to Terms of Reference Gas purchased under this rate shall not be resold, directly or indirectly by the customer. 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