HomeMy WebLinkAboutCouncil Agenda - 2026-02-02 SSpecial Council Meeting
Agenda
Monday, February 2, 2026, 2:30 p.m.
Council Chambers - Hybrid
City of Kitchener
200 King Street W, Kitchener, ON N2G 4G7
People interested in participating in this meeting can register online using the delegation registration
form at www.kitchener.ca/delegation or via email at delegation kitchener.ca. Please refer to the
delegation section on the agenda below for registration in-person and electronic participation
deadlines. Written comments received will be circulated prior to the meeting and will form part of the
public record.
The meeting live -stream and archived videos are available at www.kitchener.ca/watchnow
*Accessible formats and communication supports are available upon request. If you require
assistance to take part in a city meeting or event, please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994.*
Pages
1. Commencement
The meeting will begin with a Land Acknowledgement given by the Mayor.
2. Disclosure of Pecuniary Interest and the General Nature Thereof
Members of Council and members of the City's local boards/committees are
required to file a written statement when they have a conflict of interest. If a
conflict is declared, please visit www.kitchener.ca/conflict to submit your written
form.
3. Delegations
Pursuant to Council's Procedural By-law, delegations are permitted to address
the Committee for a maximum of five (5) minutes. All Delegations where
possible are encouraged to register prior to the start of the meeting. For
Delegates who are attending in-person, registration is permitted up to the start
of the meeting. Delegates who are interested in attending virtually must register
by 12:30 p.m. on February 2, 2026, in order to participate electronically.
3.1 None at this time.
4. Mayoral Business and Updates - Mayor B. Vrbanovic
5. Council Member Appointments to Boards and Committees 4
6. In -camera Meeting Authorization
Note: Any member of Council may question the appropriateness of a listed in -
camera item. This may be done during the special Council meeting or at the
beginning of the in -camera session.
Council is asked to enact the following resolution to authorize an in -camera
meeting:
"That an in -camera meeting of City Council be held immediately following
the special council meeting this date to consider three matters: one land
acquisition matter, a matter of potential litigation and a position/procedure
to be applied to negotiations and solicitor client privilege matter as
authorized by Sections 239 (2) (c) (e) (f) and (k) of the Municipal Act,
2001, respectively."
6.1 City Property Acquisition (Potential Land 20 m
Acquisition Matter - Section 239 (2) (c))
Staff will provide information and seek direction on this matter.
6.2 Update on Potential litigation - Building Code 30 m
Act and Planning Act (Potential Litigation -
Section 239 (2) (e))
Staff will provide information on this matter.
6.3 Update: City Facility - Procurement Procedure 30 m
(Position/procedure to be applied to
negotiations and Solicitor Client Privilege -
Section 239 (2) (f) and (k))
Staff will provide information and seek direction on this matter.
7. Recess and Reconvene
The Special Council meeting will then recess and reconvene in the Conestoga
Room immediate following passing the in -camera meeting authorization to
consider the balance of the public agenda, specifically Items 8.1 and 8.2, under
the heading of Strategic Session reports. This portion of the meeting will not be
livestreamed, it will only be available for in-person observation. The in -camera
meeting will follow immediately following the public agenda in the caucus room
at approximately 5:00 p.m.
8. Strategic Session Reports
Page 2 of 79
8.1 Digital Kitchener and Corporate -Wide Data 60 m 7
Strategies, COR -2026-007
8.2 Make it Kitchener Refresh, DSD -2026-052 60 m 12
9. Adjournment
Page 3 of 79
CITY OF KITCHENER
APPOINTMENTS FOR THE YEAR 2025-2026
N.B. The Mayor is ex -officio on most Boards/Committees and is therefore not listed on each.
A. STANDING COMMITTEES OF COUNCIL
(Established by Council Policy # GOV-BOA-130)
1. Community & Infrastructure Services Committee Term: 1 year
Note: Appointment of Chair and Vice -Chair only.
2025 2026
Councillor M. Johnston (C)
Councillor D. Schnider (V -C)
2. Finance & Corporate Services Committee Term: 1 year
Note: Appointment of Chair and Vice -Chair only.
2025 2026
Councillor S. Davey (C)
Councillor B. loannidis (V -C)
3. Planning & Strategic Initiatives Committee Term: 1 year
Note: Appointment of Chair and Vice -Chair only.
2025 2026
Councillor P. Singh (C)
Councillor D. Chapman (V -C)
B. QUASI-JUDCIAL COMMITTEE
**No Appointment Needed
**Last Appointment in 2024 - 2 -years Term
C. BOARDS AND OTHER AGENCIES
1. Kitchener -Waterloo Art Gallery - Board of Directors Term: 1 year
Meet: V Tuesday, 12 pm
2025 2026
Councillor D. Schnider
2. Grand River Accessibility Advisory Committee Term: 1 Year
Meet: 4t" Thursday,
1:30 pm
2025 2026
Councillor S. Stretch
Page 4 of 79
3. Grand River Hospital — Board of Trustees
2025
*No longer required
4. Homer Watson House Foundation
2025
Councillor C. Michaud
Term: 1 year
Meet: 4th Tuesday, 4 pm
2026
*No longer required
Term: 1 year
Meet: Last Thursday, bpm
2026
5. Horticultural Society - Kitchener - Board of Directors Term: 1 year
Meet: 2nd last Tuesday,
7 pm
2025 2026
Councillor D. Chapman
6. Huron Natural Area Joint Ventures Committee Term: 1 year
Meet: TBD
2025 2026
Councillor J. Deneault
Councillor A. Owodunni
7. Kitchener In Bloom Committee Term: 1 year
Meet: TBD
2025 2026
Councillors D. Schnider
Councillors P. Singh
8. Multicultural Centre of K -W Board of Directors Term: 1 year
Meet: AGM only
2025 2026
Councillor S. Stretch
9. Oktoberfest Inc. - Advisory Council - K -W Term: 1 year
Meet: Mthly, Tuesday, 12 pm
2025 2026
Councillor D. Schnider
Councillor C. Michaud
Page 5 of 79
10. Wilfrid Laurier Universitv - Board of Governors
2025
Councillor S. Davey
11. Centre in the Square Board of Directors
2025
Councillors P. Singh
Councillor B. loannidis
Councillor S. Davey
D. ADVISORY COMMITTEES
**No Appointment Needed
**Last Appointment in 2024 - 2 -years Term
Term: 1 year
Meet: Quarterly
2026
Term: 1 year
Meet: TBD
2026
Page 6 of 79
Staff Report
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Corporate Services Department www.kitchener.ca
REPORT TO: Special Council
DATE OF MEETING: February 2, 2026
SUBMITTED BY: Nicole Amaral, Digital Kitchener Innovation Lab Director
PREPARED BY: Nicole Amaral, Digital Kitchener Innovation Lab Director, 519-783-8175
Linnea Scian, PM, Data Governance & Quality, 519-783-8182
WARD(S) INVOLVED: All
DATE OF REPORT: January 26, 2026
REPORT NO.: COR -2026-007
SUBJECT: Strategic session: Digital Kitchener and Corporate -Wide Data strategies
RECOMMENDATION:
That report COR -2026-007 council strategic session for corporate technology projects be
received for information.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
• The purpose of this report is to provide background information to inform the council
strategic session for corporate technology projects.
• The key finding of this report is that the engagement phases have been completed for the
Data Governance and Digital Kitchener strategies and now staff are seeking input, based
on the engagement results, from council to further inform the actions and initiatives.
• There are no financial implications arising from the report.
• Significant community engagement took place through three phases of the Digital
Kitchener strategy in addition to sharing and receiving engagement feedback
through other current corporate projects, such as the Newcomer Strategy
• This report supports the "stewarding a better city together" strategic plan theme and these
associated actions:
o Digital Kitchener strategy review
o Implement a city-wide data strategy
BACKGROUND:
As a result of community engagement for the 2023-2026 City of Kitchener Strategic Plan, two
technology -focused themes emerged, leading to the launch of two corporate initiatives under the
`Stewarding a Better City' goal: City -Wide Data strategy and the Digital Kitchener Review.
Digital Kitchener Strategy:
*** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. ***
Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance.
Page 7 of 79
In 2024, council and senior leaders prioritized a refresh of the Digital Kitchener strategy as an
initiative for the new Innovation Lab Director to begin in 2025.
The goal of the refresh is to ensure the City's technology
initiatives remain aligned with current stakeholder priorities and emerging trends.
The project includes:
• Assessing progress under the four strategic themes: connected, innovative, on -demand,
and inclusive.
• Providing recommendations to support strategic objectives.
• Researching how other cities use technology for service improvements.
• Consulting staff, community, and stakeholders to confirm alignment.
• Exploring new objectives, including Al integration.
City -Wide Data Strategy:
In 2022, the City of Kitchener joined the Bloomberg Philanthropies City Data Alliance. A
deliverable of this alliance was a Citywide Data Strategy Action Plan, a three-year vision and
actionable plan designed to advance the City of Kitchener's use of data.
Since that engagement, the following work has occurred:
Capital funding included in budget "for
the implementation of a city-wide data
strategy to build organization -wide
data practices to deliver better
services for residents"
Internal secondment filled
Project charter and engagement plan
endorsed by CLT
• Engagement plan implemented
• Staff input collected, engagement
report developed and shared with
respondents
• CLT strategic session
• 2025-2028 City -Wide Data strategy
endorsed by CLT
• Additional 18 -month secondment
approved and filled
In February 2026, staff will facilitate a strategic session with CLT to support the adoption of
the proposed corporate data governance framework, guidelines for staff, staff
competencies framework and launch communication plan.
REPORT:
Digital Kitchener Strategy:
As a part of the Digital Kitchener review, a three -phased engagement approach was
implemented with each phase building on insights from the previous stage. At every step,
feedback was analyzed and shared with stakeholders, ensuring transparency and
accountability.
Page 8 of 79
The engagement results highlight a shared commitment to building a city that is inclusive,
efficient, and future -ready. Through extensive research and engagement, four interconnected
priorities have emerged:
• recognizing improvement opportunities
• creating local partnerships and collaborations
• exploring new technology and projects
• prioritizing digital equity, accessibility, and literacy
These priorities reflect the voices of residents, staff, and the local tech community, and they
form the foundation for actionable strategies that will guide Kitchener's digital evolution.
City -Wide Data Strategy:
Staff implemented a comprehensive engagement plan to learn about how staff use and want to
use data. Based on the feedback collected through this process, research into data
management best practices, leadership's prioritization and research into other municipalities'
data management programs, staff developed the 2025-2028 City -Wide Data strategy and work
plan.
This strategy includes three focus areas that support the development of a corporate data
management program: setting the foundation, working in the open and developing our data
culture.
The engagement phases have been completed for the City -Wide Data and Digital
Kitchener strategies and now staff are seeking input, based on the engagement results, from
council to further inform the actions and initiatives.
Staff will pose activity questions to be answered via Mentimeter with code provided at
meeting:
City -Wide Data questions:
1. How much do you agree with the following statements? (scale from "strongly disagree"
to "strongly agree")
0 1 get a lot of questions I wish I could answer with data
0 1 know where to look to find the data or information I need
0 1 know that the data I need exists
0 1 trust that the data I can find is up-to-date and relevant
2. What data would be most helpful for you to better answer questions from the public
(including customers, developers, investors or builders)?
o Locations and repair timelines for potholes
0 Planned and actual timing for services (examples: grass cutting, tree trimming, leaf
collection)
0 Parking enforcement data (compliance rates, ticket volume, trends)
0 Snow plow coverage and average time to clear snow from streets
0 Seasonal spending by program/service
o Resolution time for resident inquiries/complaints
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o How weather impacts service delivery
o Business licences issued this month/year
o Building permits issued this month/year
Digital Kitchener questions:
Which customer service challenges should we prioritize for improvement through
technology or Al as part of the Digital Kitchener strategy?
o Requesting or completing city services
o Awareness of online services
C) Remembering multiple logins
o Options for contacting staff
o Finding city information
o Having a service history that all staff can access
o Invoices and payments
o Internet access
Computer and printer access
o Service barriers due to language
2. Where do you see the most potential for Al to help us innovate and streamline
operations?
o Track city assets and infrastructure for maintenance optimization
o Automate data collection and analysis
o Reduce the time spent on manual and repetitive routine tasks
o Streamline service delivery
o Virtual assistants for FAQs, triage, and multilingual support
o Scan and validate applications for compliance and completion
o Match residents and businesses with municipal resources
o Analyze social media to identify issues and improve communication
o Model growth scenarios and support sustainable development
• Monitor energy use in facilities and optimize for efficiency
STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT:
This report supports Stewarding a Better City Together: Focuses on City employees as
stewards of Kitchener; responsive, innovative, diverse & accountable public servants working
together to serve residents; removing barriers and championing a better city and a better
world.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS:
There are no financial implications arising from the report.
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT:
Note: the City -Wide Data Strategy is an internal -facing strategy and staff were engaged. Its
implementation is supported by two internal pilot committees: the Data Governance Working
Group and Data Community of Practice.
Page 10 of 79
INFORM:
This report has been posted to the City's website with the agenda in advance of the
council/committee meeting.
Throughout the strategy review, communication efforts included posting updates and
reports on the City's website, sharing information via online platforms, and providing
regular feedback to participants at each stage. These efforts ensured transparency and
kept all stakeholders informed about engagement opportunities and project progress.
CONSULT
• Surveys: Broad online and paper surveys were conducted with municipalities, residents
and staff to gather feedback on digital service challenges, opportunities for data
governance improvement, and the use of Al in municipal operations.
• Focus groups and interviews: Targeted sessions with customer -facing
staff and community centre supervisors helped identify barriers and co -develop
solutions.
• Analysis and reporting: Feedback from each phase was analyzed and reported back
to participants, demonstrating how input shaped recommendations.
Interested parties consulted:
• Kitchener residents
• Technology community
• Under -represented communities
• City staff
• Corporate leadership team
• Senior management teams
• Community organizations and business partners
COLLABORATE:
• In-person sessions with staff, residents, and tech community members prioritized
challenges and collaboratively developed ideas for solutions
PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES:
• COR -2026-007: Al education session with Communitech
APPROVED BY: Victoria Raab, GM — Corporate Services
ATTACHMENTS:
None
Page 11 of 79
Staff Report
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Development Services Department www.kitchener.ca
REPORT TO: Special Council
DATE OF MEETING: February 2, 2026
SUBMITTED BY: Cory Bluhm, Executive Director of Economic Development
519-783-8262
PREPARED BY: Cory Bluhm, Executive Director of Economic Development
519-783-8262
Lauren Chlumsky, Economic Development Analyst
WARD(S) INVOLVED: All
DATE OF REPORT: January 29, 2026
REPORT NO.: DSD -2026-052
SUBJECT: Council Strategic Session — Make it Kitchener 2.0 Refresh
RECOMMENDATION:
For discussion.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
• The purpose of this report is to provide Council with an overview of the strategic session
and to provide background information to inform the discussion.
• Community engagement included discussions with the Economic Development
Advisory Committee and stakeholder round tables to inform the strategic session.
• This report supports Creating an Economically -Thriving City Together: Focuses on
growing an agile, diverse local economy powered by talented entrepreneurs,
workers & artists; creating opportunities for everyone and a resilient future that
propels our city forward.
BACKGROUND:
Make It Kitchener 2.0 is the City's economic development strategy, aimed at guiding major
investments to support the ongoing growth of Kitchener's economy. November 2025
marked the halfway point of the 10 -year strategy and an opportune time for review. More
importantly, significant economic forces have arisen in the past 18 -months that were not
anticipated when the strategy was first approved. These include:
i) A Trade & Tariff War;
ii) Higher interest rates from 2022 to 2024;
iii) Significantly reduced new home sales leading to construction slow downs;
iv) Rising business costs for most sectors (ex: costs of construction, costs of
materials);
*** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. ***
Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance.
Page 12 of 79
v) Continued prominence of remote work and significant office vacancies in
Downtown Kitchener;
vi) Decreased venture capital investments in Canadian startups;
vii) Global adoption of artificial intelligence and concerns over future job losses; and,
viii) Significant changes to Canada's International Student programs.
As a result, in August of 2025, Council added a new action to Kitchener's 2023-2026
Strategic Plan, directing staff to undertake a review and develop Make It Kitchener 2.1, by
reviewing the major areas of focus and identifying any new potential areas. Recent
announcements from the Region of Waterloo regarding current water capacity could also
negatively impact economic growth.
Current Areas of Focus & Investments to Date
Make It Kitchener 2.0 was approved during the first year of the pandemic, identifying 6 areas
of focus. This included an immediate focus on business recovery, and 5 ongoing and long-
term areas of focus. City Council has made critical investments within each area of focus.
Investments are summarized in Attachment A.
Economic Analysis
The City retained the services of Eric Protzer, a Canadian data scientist and fellow of the
Harvard Growth Lab, to provide a macro -level analysis of the city's economic performance
and to identify diversification opportunities. High level findings of this analysis include:
• Overall, Kitchener CMA is performing very well compared to most other Canadian cities
(ex: Employment Growth 2011-2021 was strong). However, Kitchener CMA is trailing
well behind many American cities.
• Canada is strong at discovery of innovation but struggles to commercialize (ex: low
business investment in research and development).
• Major shocks have impacted Kitchener's economy in the following ways:
o Recent labour market weakness
o Urban office vacancy
o Trade & Tariff War creating economic uncertainty
• Kitchener has particular economic strength in industries related to computer science
and also in technical fields related to engines and motor vehicles.
• Diversification opportunities exist in Medical Instrument Manufacturing, Aerospace,
Semiconductor/Electronic Component Manufacturing, etc.
The complete economic analysis is contained in Attachment B - Kitchener's Economic
Trajectory and Diversification Opportunities.
REPORT:
The objectives for the Council Strategy Session are to:
Page 13 of 79
• Report on the status of the current 5 areas of focus, and 4 potential new areas of focus;
• Provide Council with an overall understanding of the current economic climate, including
challenges and opportunities; and,
• Gain Council's early feedback and prioritization on existing and new areas of focus.
1. Background & Context (C Bluhm) — 5 minutes
Staff will provide a brief overview of the purpose of Make It Kitchener 2.0 (major, catalytic
investments), and review of the major investments and work completed during the first 5
years of Make It Kitchener 2.0 (see Attachment A).
No Council discussion, information only
2. Economic Analysis and Question & Answers (E Protzer) — 30 minutes
Mr. Eric Protzer will provide a 10 -minute overview of his findings on Kitchener's Economic
Trajectory and Diversification Opportunities (see Attachment B). Council will be invited to
engage with Mr. Protzer by asking questions related to his economic analysis.
Question & Answer facilitated by the Mayor
3. Areas of Focus (C Bluhm led, Mayor Facilitated) — 25 minutes
Staff will provide a brief overview of the 5 current areas of focus and 4 potential new areas
of focus. Staff will provide their recommendation with respect to the approach for each area
of focus. To support Council's discussion, staff have provided a 1 -page summary for each
area of focus, highlighting investments made to date, identifying key trends and
opportunities, etc. This document, entitled City of the Future 2026, is contained in
Attachment C.
Council will be asked for 1) their level of agreement; and 2) the level of priority they
would place on each area of focus.
Council Exercise 1A - Level of Agreement with Staff
Please identify level of agreement with staff's recommendation for each of the individual
areas of focus. Options include:
a) I agree
b) I agree but I have a comment to make
c) I disagree
d) I need more information
Council will utilize stickers on a worksheet to identify their answer. Staff will transfer
Council's responses to a large board to observe areas of alignment and difference.
Page 14 of 79
Council Exercise 1B - Level of Priority
Please rate the level of importance you would place on each area of focus. Options include:
a) High Priority — this should be the focus of near-term major investments and immediate
focus of staff work
b) Medium Priority — this should be considered for investment or a focus of staff work
over the next 3 years
c) Low Priority — this should be considered for investment or a focus of staff work over
the next 5+ years
d) Not a Priority — this should not be considered for future investment or staff work.
Council will utilize stickers on a worksheet to identify their answer. Staff will transfer
Council's responses to a large board to observe areas of alignment and difference.
Council Exercise 2 — Areas of Difference
Based on Council's initial answers to 1A and 1B, staff will identify areas where there is a
consensus as well as areas where there is a difference of opinion, and invite Council to
provide insights, comment or feedback. Likewise, where members of Council answer (b) or
(c) to question 1A, staff will invite Councillors who wish to elaborate on their rationale.
4. Official Plan Update on Employment Lands — 5 minutes
Planning staff will provide a brief overview of the proposed employment land policies of the
new Official Plan and the importance of protecting existing employment lands.
Next Steps
Following Council's Strategic Session, staff will begin developing the refreshed Make It
Kitchener strategy. The draft strategy will be presented to the Economic Development
Advisory Committee for feedback prior to presenting it to Council in the Spring of 2026.
STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT:
This report supports Creating an Economically -Thriving City Together: Focuses on
growing an agile, diverse local economy powered by talented entrepreneurs, workers
& artists; creating opportunities for everyone and a resilient future that propels our
city forward.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS:
Major initiatives resulting from Make It Kitchener are funded and implemented in one of 2
ways:
Page 15 of 79
• The Economic Development Investment Fund 2.0 is intended to be the funding
source for all major catalytic investments; and,
• Actions which are more operational in nature will be implemented by staff utilizing
existing operating and capital budgets.
No impacts will arise for the Capital Budget or Operating Budget as a result of the strategic
session. However, when staff present a revised strategy, financial implications may be
identified at that time.
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT:
CONSULT - the review of Make it Kitchener 2.0 will be informed based on the following two
engagement efforts:
• Ongoing engagement with the City's Economic Development Advisory Committee
(September 2025 to April 2026); and,
• Stakeholder roundtables (currently planned for January 22-29, 2026).
INFORM — This report has been posted to the City's website with the agenda in advance of
the council / committee meeting.
PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES:
• DSD -20-056 Make It Kitchener 2.0 — A Strategy to Guide Economic Recovery &
Growth
APPROVED BY: Dan Champan, Chief Administrative Officer and Justin Readman,
General Manager of Development Services
ATTACHMENTS:
Attachment A — Investments Made to Date — Make It Kitchener 2.0
Attachment B — Kitchener's Economic Trajectory and Diversification Opportunities
Attachment C — City of the Future 2026
Page 16 of 79
ATTACHMENT A:
Investments Made to Date — Make It Kitchener 2.0
Area of Focus
Health
Innovation
Creative
Industries
City -Wide
Startup Network
Investments to Date
$8.5 million investment in the
University of Waterloo's
Innovation Arena.
Approval of a vision for a new
mixed-use urban business
park on the Bramm Yards.
Commencement of
environmental and
geotechnical work on the
Bramm Yards to prepare for
future development.
Launch of the Creative Hub at
44 Gaukel and integration into
the City's annual operating
budget.
Growth of e -Sports in the
region, including a partnership
that brought the 2025 Call of
Duty League Championship.
Launch of the SDG Idea
Factory, an incubator for
social entrepreneurship and
equity -deserving
entrepreneurs.
Lauch of Sq Peg, a retail
incubator.
A partnership with
Communitech to re -ignite the
local tech startup scene.
Growth of entrepreneurship
programs at the Small
Business Centre.
Planned or Potential Investments
Funding secured for a new
incubator and coworking space at
the Innovation Arena for health -
adjacent small businesses
(planned to open in 2026).
Early investigation and partnership
building on the development of a
health innovation validation
facility/network.
Eventual disposition and
redevelopment of the Bramm
Yards.
Ongoing work with Conestoga
College on the advancement of
their Creative Industries School
(Conestoga College invested in the
Doon Campus facilities).
Funding secured for a new
incubator and coworking space at
the Innovation Arena for health -
adjacent small businesses
(planned to open in 2026).
A Commercial Kitchen Incubator
(business case in 2026).
A Music Industry Incubator
(business case in 2026).
Page 17 of 79
Affordable &
$2.57 million land lease to the
Future land sales to support
Attainable
YWCA at 1470 Block Line
affordable housing (ex: Charles
Housing
Road.
Street Terminal lands in
partnership with the Region of
$5.5 million land donation to
Waterloo).
Habitat for Humanity on
Holborn Drive.
Land lease to Reception
House on Wellington Street
North.
Housing development with
Kitchener Housing Inc as
part of Fire Station 8.
A Vibrant, Active
Acquisition via donation of the
Development of `Kitchener Live',
City
Conrad Centre for the
a new destination brand and
Performing Arts and
ticketing platform (planned 2026
integration into the City's
launch).
annual operating budget.
Capital investment in special
Development and launch of
event infrastructure through a
Gaukel Block.
one-time capital budget
investment.
Investments in the growth of
festivals and events in
Downtown Kitchener.
Funding support for
THEMUSEUM to achieve a
sustainable funding model.
Page 18 of 79
Kitchener's Economic Trajectory and
Diversification Opportunities
Eric Protzer
January 7, 2026
Page 19 of 79
ExecutiveSummary.......................................................................................................3
Introduction.................................................................................................................5
Noteson the Data Used.................................................................................................5
Kitchener's Medium -Term Economic Performance..........................................................6
Shocks Hitting Kitchener's Economy............................................................................11
Recent Economic Shocks.........................................................................................11
Canada's Housing Crisis..........................................................................................14
Kitchener's Economic Diversification Opportunities......................................................16
Overview of Methodology.........................................................................................16
Kitchener's Economic Composition..........................................................................18
Empirical Results for Economic Diversification Targets...............................................20
Conclusion: Interpretation and Synthesis of Findings....................................................25
References.................................................................................................................28
Appendix....................................................................................................................29
Technical Details of Methodology.............................................................................29
Figures.................................................................................................................... 31
Page 20 of 79
■
This report was prepared by Eric Protzer (doing business as Minerva Economics) for the City
of Kitchener. The City of Kitchener engaged Minerva Economics for a report on Kitchener's
economic diversification opportunities.
Eric Protzer is a Canadian economist who advises governments around the world on
economic policy. His research has been cited by the European Union, United Nations,
International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development,
and the Inter -American Development Bank. It has been featured by Brookings and the New
York Times. Eric holds undergraduate degrees in economics and mechanical engineering
from the University of British Columbia, and a master's degree in technology & policy from
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He co-authored the book "Reclaiming
Populism: How Economic Fairness Can Win Back Disenchanted Voters"
Page 21 of 79
_ _ J
Kitchener is a medium-sized city in Ontario with a long-standing reputation for strengths in
the tech sector of the economy. Data covering patents by technology class and
employment by industry indicates that Kitchener is especially strong in software and
hardware, and also fairly prominent in electronics.
The Canadian economy as a whole is facing significant medium- and near-term headwinds.
Wage growth has been lower than in the US over the medium term, and Canadian GDP
growth has been comparatively more intensive in resource industries and less intensive in
technology industries. Housing affordability has also substantially worsened over the same
time period. More recent disruptions include the advent of remote work creating vacant
downtowns, pandemic -associated inflation, AI -associated technological change, and US
tariff policy disrupting access to Canada's largest export market.
Kitchener is in an interesting position, however, in that it has a relatively strong tech sector
(given the size of its labour market) versus US cities, as indicated by its patent output and
employment composition. Leveraging the city's existing knowledge to diversify into
additional related tech industries could substantially help to address its economic
challenges.
This report leverages employment and patent data to identify novel industries that are
related to Kitchener's existing strengths, under the peer-reviewed and highly -cited
methodological framework of Economic Complexity. It applies several filters designed to
ensure target industries are resilient to shocks facing Kitchener, such as avoiding industries
that are highly automatable and those with high levels of remote work.
The empirical results of this analysis suggest that with appropriate supports, Kitchener
could expand into the medical instrumentation and devices industry in addition to
aerospace. Further investigation of specific assets needed to enter these industries is
warranted, for example bytalking to major companies in these fields.
Page 22 of 79
• • •
The central goal of this report is to recommend data -driven economic diversification
opportunities for the City of Kitchener. To substantiate these results, it is also necessaryto
detail Kitchener's economic performance over the medium-term and the slate of recent
shocks that it is facing. These are vital to understand because they constrain the set of
economic opportunities that are realistic for Kitchener to pursue, and inform how Kitchener
can set out to enter those novel industries.
This report is accordingly divided into several sections. First, it explains some important
notes about the data used throughout the document. Second, it examines Kitchener's
medium-term economic performance. Third, it summarizes recent shocks that are hitting
Kitchener's economy. Fourth, it uses a variety of data covering different industries and
cities in North America to create empirically -driven economic diversification
recommendations that are specific to Kitchener. Finally, the report synthesizes all of these
findings to deliver concrete recommendations for the City of Kitchener.
This report uses a variety of data sources covering topics such as the composition of
Kitchener's employment by industry, the composition of its patenting activity by
technological field, wage growth, housing prices and supply, and more. While this data has
been arranged for readabilityfor the non -specialist, there are two important aspects of the
data that should be kept in mind.
First, there are different references to data that are specific to Kitchener the cityversus the
metro region, i.e. Kitchener -Cambridge -Waterloo. This is chiefly driven bythe need, at
times, to examine the metro region as a whole in order to draw economically meaningful
conclusions. For certain high-level metrics, for example wage growth, it is perfectly fine to
Look at the city proper. However, some other metrics — especially those related to the
economic composition of the city— necessarily use the metro area. This is because the
metro area de facto operates as an integrated labour market, and looking solely at the city
proper would therefore ignore many of the critical economic assets that Kitchener relies
upon, possibly excluding entire industries.
The fact that such metrics are used in comparison to other cities in North America means it
is doubly important to use the metro definition. Municipal boundaries follow political and
not economic lines, and thus comparing the city proper for Kitchener to other city proper
Page 23 of 79
areas in Canada and the US would create apples -to -oranges comparisons where each
metro area's labour market is divided up in a different way. This would lead to spurious
recommendations that are driven by noise in the data rather than a real economic signal.
Second, in numerous instances the data will be reported for the year 2021. This is because
the last census conducted by Statistics Canada was in 2021. While this is now several
years old, and also was during the COVID-19 pandemic, this nevertheless represents the
most recent high-quality datapoint in many cases.
•Will 1111111 i irilrilrilrilli
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Kitchener is a medium-sized city in Ontario, which in 2024 had a city -proper population of
approximately 300,000 people and a Census Metropolitan Area population of
approximately 700,000. The metro area is renowned for its strength as a technology hub
that is home to the University of Waterloo and hosted the headquarters of Blackberry.
An important challenge for Canada as a whole, including Kitchener, is subdued levels of
wage growth that are contemporaneous with a cost -of -living crisis. Figure 1 shows real
(inflation-adjusted) wage growth by city in Canada and the US from 2011-2021, with the
Kitchener city proper and metro area both highlighted. The x-axis shows the size of each
city's labour market in terms of the total number of employees, so that one can compare
wage growth levels at different city sizes. Notably, throughout the graph the bulk of US
cities are higher up the y-axis than Canadian cities (including Kitchener), indicating higher
levels of real wage growth.
Many Canadian and American cities share similar geography and history, and yet Canada's
standard of living has improved at a tepid pace compared to the US. Over the same time
period Canada's costs of living have exploded, a point that will be emphasized later in this
report. The combination of sluggish wage growth and sharply increasing costs of living
poses major financial challenges for Canadians.
In turn this performance gap begs the question of why US cities have enjoyed superior
economic growth. Figure 2 explores this issue by decomposing which sectors contributed
to what share of US and Canadian GDP growth from 2011-2021. Sectors are sorted by the
gap between contributions to US and Canadian growth; that is, the industries at the top of
the graph contributed more strongly to US growth, whereas those at the bottom
contributed more strongly to Canadian growth. This reveals that US growth was far more
concentrated in tech -intensive sectors of the economy than Canada (such as professional,
Page 24 of 79
Figure 1. City Size versus Beal Wage Growth in Canada and the US, 2011-2021
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scientific, and technical activities), whereas Canada was comparatively more
concentrated in resource sectors (such as mining and quarrying).
Many Canadian cities, including Kitchener, do well on scientific output, as shown in Figure
3. Yet on the whole, Canadian businesses fail to invest in commercial R&D (Figure 4) and
Canada's patent output has been persistently low for decades (Figure 5). Figures A.1 and
A.2 in the Appendix show that Canada's weak commercial innovation is accompanied by a
Venture Capital system that has stronger funding levels than some European counterparts,
but is considerably weaker than best -in -class performers such as the US and Israel.
Kitchener is in a unique position within Canada because it is the only city that patents at US
rates for its city size, as shown in Figure 6. This presents an interesting strategic position for
the city of Kitchener. Its innovation output is highly competitive given the size of its labour
market, yet in absolute terms this output is still far smaller than major US players such as
San Francisco and New York City.
Page 25 of 79
Figure 2. Share of CDP Growth Accounted for by Each Sector for the US vs Canada, 2011-
2021
Professional, scientific and
technical activities
Financial and insurance activities
Wholesale and retail trade; repair
Of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Administrative and support service
activities
Accommodation and food service
activities
Information and cornmunication
Real estate activities
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Human health and social work
activities
Other service activities
Electricity, ryas, steam and air
conditioning supply
Electronics, Machinery, & Vehicle
Manufactures
Education
Water supply; sewerage, waste
managerrent and rern�ediation
activities
Public administration and defence;
compulsory social security
Transportation and storage
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Construction
Mining and quarrying
Food, wood, Petroleum, and Metal
Manufactures
0.0%
Data Sources: OECD
2.0% 4.0% 4.0% 8.0% 10.0%
% of GDP Growth Created by Sector
da
12.0% 14.0%
Page 26 of 79
Figure S. STEM Scientific Publications vs. City Size, US and Canada
100,000
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Figure 4, Business RD as a Share of CDP by Country
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Page 27 of 79
Figure S. Annual Patent Applications per Million People by Country
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Data Sources: Our World in Data
Figure B. Patent Output vs City Size, US and Canada
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Page 28 of 79
The medium-term picture, as such, indicates that Canada has suffered from low wage
growth that results in significant part from a weak tech economy. Kitchener is nevertheless
in an interesting position within that national picture, because it performs well on patent
output for its city size. This indicates that Kitchener could be positioned to expand its tech
economy, thereby directly tackling these problems.
1111 11!1 11111111� 11111111 1111a
A number of shocks have hit Canada's and Kitchener's economy in recent years. Some of
these are relatively recent, having mainly developed since the onset of the COVID-19
pandemic. Figure 7 shows that unemployment in Kitchener and several nearby cities has
ticked up since 2022, and Figure 8 shows that inflation has also increased in recent months
(and was also very high during the COVID-19 pandemic, which has baked price increases
into the economy). Figure 9 shows that office vacancy rates have massively increased in
the Kitchener downtown since 2020. Figure 10 demonstrates that President Trump's tariff
policies have significantly undermined Ontario's exports to the US since the start of 2025.
In addition, there is growing concern about the impact of automation from Artificial
Intelligence on labour markets, as discussed for example by Acemoglu and Restrepo
(2022).
These near-term shocks indicate that Kitchener's economic diversification targets should
have several important qualities, beyond what might normally be preferable (such as high
wage levels):
• The disruption of Canada's trade relationship with the US suggests that new
industries should ideally be tradable over long distances, so that they can enter
non -US markets
• High vacancy rates in the Kitchener downtown suggest that industries that are not
highly intensive in remote work may be preferable to pursue
• The growth of Artificial Intelligence suggests that industries that not intensive in
highly-automatable tasks may be preferable
Page 29 of 79
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Figure 8, Consumer Price Index Inflation in Canada
0.(
Data Sources: Statistics Canada
Page 30 of 79
Figure 9. Office Vacancy Rates in Kitchener
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Data Sources: CBRE
Figure 10. Ontario's Monthly Exports to the US in CAD
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Page 31 of 79
An ongoing shock that has built up over a longer timeframe is Canada's housing
affordability crisis. This not only places a financial burden on residents of Kitchener, but
severely impacts the rest of the economy. The housing crisis abrogates powerful economy -
of -scale effects in cities by limiting the number of people who can afford to live there, and
diverts investment into housing rather than industries with higher potential for productivity
growth. According to OECD data, Canada has conducted the most Gross Fixed Capital
Investment in housing as a share of GDP of any developed country for every year running
since 2010.
Figure 11 shows that Canada's levels of housing supply per capita are very low versus non-
Anglosphere developed countries'. Given that price is a result of supply and demand, it is
therefore wholly unsurprising that these severe shortages have led to enormous growth of
housing prices.
Figure 11. housing Supply is Not Responding to Prices in Canada and the Anglosphere
550
a
a 500
a
a
N
a.
450
400
350
Supply has stagnated at low levels
2.0
1.8
z
Prices have grown at high rages
0.6
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2014 2016 2016 2020 2022
Data Sources: OECD
' Anglosphere countries have especially low housing supply due to their similar regulatory systems that are
rooted in common law legal institutions.
Page 32 of 79
In the 2021 census data, Kitchener had especially low levels of housing supply per capita
by Canadian standards, whether measured in dwellings, bedrooms, rooms, or square feet
of living space per capita (Figures A.3—A.6 in the Appendix).
It must be acknowledged that a number of high-rise buildings have been approved and
constructed in downtown Kitchener in recent years, with the express aim of easing these
supply deficits. However, a back -of -the -envelope calculation suggests that this added
supply is not yet sufficient. If one adds the Kitchener metro area's total private dwelling
units in 2021 to the total number of dwelling units approved since 20182 and divides by the
2024 population, the resultant number of dwelling units per capita is slightly lowerthan it
was in 2021 (0.382 versus the prior value of 0.399). While these new permitted units are
valuable, they are not sufficient to keep up with the population growth of the Kitchener
metro area.
For any economic good, when supply shortages exist there is no credible way to restore
broad-based affordability other than addressing the root problems that have caused supply
shortages. Differences in factors such as the cost of materials, labour, and financing are
not so extremely different among high-income countries that they can credibly explain
Canada's shortages. Rather, there are major differences in how restrictive housing
regulations are of new, dense housing supply.
The status quo in Canada generally, for instance, is that each city creates its own zoning
rules (often very many); frequently subjects critical processes such as rezoning to lengthy
and uncertain public hearings and town council votes; and often charges large
development fees, such that the cost of city infrastructure is partly paid for through
elevated housing prices rather than propertytax collection. Conversely in Japan, for
example, zoning is conducted nationally such that there are only twelve different types of
zones in the entire country; rezoning decisions are simply approved by city staff, rather
than being subjected to public hearings and/or town council votes; and development fees
are generally not applied. These differences not only expand the number of units that are
allowed to be built in Japan, but reduce the cost of development so that additional supply
can be built to meet demand at lower price points. In turn, supply is much higher and price
growth is much lower.
Economic research has, commensurately, repeatedly linked regulatory restrictions on
housing to unaffordability. For example:
'The year of 2018 is chosen to reflect possible lags between building approvals and construction. Building
permit data is from Statistics Canada.
Page 33 of 79
• Zabel and Dalton (2011) find that minimum lot sizes in the US can increase housing
prices twenty to forty percent
• Hilber and Vermeulen (2016) find that the South East of England would have had
25% lower housing prices if it had followed the relatively less restrictive regulatory
regime of the North East of England
• Molloy et al. (2022) find that a one standard deviation increase in regulatory
restrictions on housing supply leads to 10% faster price growth in the US (which,
with the power of compound growth, can quickly become very significant)
A thorough review of Kitchener's housing regulations is beyond the scope of this particular
report, which is focused on Kitchener's economic diversification prospects. Nevertheless,
Kitchener policymakers can best address the housing crisis by exhaustively identifying
measures to aggressively expand the housing supply.
To assess specific economic diversification opportunities for Kitchener it is essential to
acknowledge that places tend to enter new economic activities that are related to existing
ones (Hidalgo et al. 2007). For example, developing countries often jump from textile
manufacturing to light electronics manufacturing because they both rely on labour-
intensive assembly line production; but less often from textile manufacturing to aeroplane
design because the latter requires totally different advanced engineering knowledge.
Similarly, cities with a history in the electronics industry may more easily enter new
robotics industries due to overlapping required capabilities.
As an analogy, one can imagine economic diversification as being like a game of Scrabble.
Each place has different letters, and each industry is akin to a word in that it requires a set
of letters. Ergo, if a place has deep knowledge of the letters H, A, I, and R, it only needs to
acquire one more letter (C) to make CHAIR. But it would require several additional letters
(B, E, and D) to make BREAD. Thus it is easier for the place to jump to CHAIR than BREAD.
In the real world, we cannot always observe all the capabilities (`letters') that are required
for each industry. The pharmaceutical industry, for instance, might require a wide variety of
infrastructure, logistics support, and scientific knowledge in different domains in order to
thrive, and it may not be realistic to catalogue and measure all of these inputs. But it is still
Page 34 of 79
possible to infer what other industries share many capabilities with the pharmaceuticals
industry by measuring whether they strongly co -locate.
Consequently, it is possible to make good predictions of future economic diversification by
observing what a given place already makes, and looking at what other places produce in
conjunction with those activities. The field of Economic Complexity (Hidalgo and
Hausmann 2009; Hidalgo et al. 2007) has developed empirical methods around this
principle, which are applied to Kitchener herein.
Executing this analysis for Kitchener is done chiefly using data on the number of people
employed in each industry in each city in the US and Canada. Data is available in the
NAICS classification system, which covers several hundred industries. Two main metrics of
an industry's potential growth are used:
• A measure of Kitchener's growth potential in an industry given its existing
capabilities. A machine learning algorithm (details of which are in the Appendix)
predicts how many people it would expect to be employed in a given industry in
Kitchener, given employment totals in each other related industry. Ahuja et al.
(forthcoming) show that when predicted employment exceeds actual employment,
this difference is predictive of future employment growth. Intuitively, this reflects a
strongly supportive industrial ecosystem that could support additional employment
in the industry in question.
• A measure of Kitchener's growth potential in an industry in the upper limit
given its city size. Policymakers may want to know not only which industries
Kitchener could easily enter with existing capabilities, but which industries could be
entered if numerous new capabilities were acquired. Different industries are
realistic and unrealistic at a given city size, and it is therefore useful to calculate
how big an industry can realistically get at Kitchener's size. For intuition, resource
industries tend to have the largest employment share in small cities; manufacturing
industries tend to have the largest employment share in medium-sized cites; and
skill -intensive service industries tend to have the largest employment share in large
cities.
In addition, several filters are used based on metrics associated with each industry. These
are designed to filter for industries that are attractive in general, and also to filter for
industries that are resilient to the challenges previously identified in this report. Each filter
is explained in technical detail in the Appendix.
Page 35 of 79
• Tradability. The analysis excludes non -tradable industries such as barber shops
and restaurants, because these rely solely and trivially on local demand. Tradable
industries, in contrast, sell goods and services to geographies beyond the local city.
• Positive industry -wide growth. The total industry -wide growth (covering the US and
Canada combined) is calculated from 2011 — 2021. Only industries with positive
growth are included, to ensure that Kitchener targets growing and not shrinking
opportunities.
• High wage levels. Industries are filtered for those with average US earnings of at
least $60,000 USD.
• Modest exposure to remote work. Those industries in which the share of hours
worked remotely exceeds 50% are discarded.
• No extreme automation risk. The bottom 10% of industries that are most
susceptible to automation
• Distance tolerance. For industries corresponding to tradable goods (as opposed to
services), international trade data is used to measure how distance resilient each
good is (i.e. whether it is typically traded over long or short international distances).
Before detailing the specific industries that Kitchener may be able to grow into, it is useful
to provide background on the industries Kitchener has strengths and weaknesses in. This
allows a for a more thorough evaluation of any specific target industry. Herein both the
composition of employment and patent output are examined.
Figure 12 presents a summary of Kitchener's employment concentration in different
industry clusters. Industries are clustered based on similar task composition (as detailed
in the Appendix). The x-axis shows Kitchener's share of employment in each industry, while
the y-axis shows whether Kitchener's employment share is higher or lower than one would
expect given the total city size. Scatter points are coloured according to whether they are
relatively intensive in university -educated occupations (orange dots) versus unintensive
(blue dots). Especially prominent scatter points are labeled with an example industry.
Page 36 of 79
Figure 12.Employment Share vs. Specialization for Kitchener Metro Area by Industry
Cluster, 2021
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Data Sources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, O*NET, OEWS
Figure 12 quickly reveals some of Kitchener's leading economic features:
• There is a large share of employment in the cluster containing "Other Schools and
Instruction," and this is also higher than most cities of Kitchener's size (as captured
by the y-axis value). This reflects the presence of the University of Waterloo in the
Kitchener metro area.
• Several tech -related industry clusters have much larger employment shares than a
typical city of Kitchener's size: see the clusters containing "Data Processing,
Hosting, and Related Services," "Engine, Turbine, and Power Transmission
Equipment Manufacturing," and "Motor Vehicle Manufacturing." It is important to
observe that these strengths are in software and traditional hardware, whereas
other potential clusters (such as biotech) are not featured so prominently.
Page 37 of 79
Further inspection of specific industry clusters helps to shed more light on these strengths
and weaknesses. Figures A.7 —A.9 in the Appendix show that Kitchener is very strong in
software employment, and approximately on par with average US performers in electronics
and biotech given its city size. Figure A.10 lists the specific NAICS industries in each of
these clusters.
Patent data adds further colour to these patterns. Patent fields are clustered based on the
similarity of the scientific fields they cite. Figures A.11 —A.14 in the Appendix show that
Kitchener's patent output is very strong for its size in ICT and Telecommunications (i.e.
software -related fields), approximately on par with the average US city in electronics, and
firmly below US output levels in biotech and aerospace.
Together, this demonstrates that Kitchener is especially strong in software -related tech and
also has a reasonable presence in hardware and electronics. It is somewhat weaker in
aerospace and biotech.
MBOMOU• • • • •-
Two main analyses of possible industry targets are presented herein. These both analyze 4 -
digit NAICS industries (not industry clusters). Table 1 shows industries that are predicted to
have a higher number of employees than they currently do, and thus have a supportive
industrial ecosystem that may be able to support further growth. Table 2 shows industries
that could get larger at Kitchener's city size, even if this would require substantial
investment in new capabilities. For both Tables, the filters previously discussed have been
applied. Table A.1 in the Appendix reports all statistics for all tradable industries, without
filtering out industries.
In Table 1, pay particular attention to the columns corresponding to existing employment in
2021 and the predicted level of employment. In Table 2, conversely, examine the existing
employment in 2021 and the employment that is possible at the 90th percentile given the
city size.
A few observations can be made about the results in these two tables. For one, the Electric
Power Generation industry should likely be disregarded, as this depends somewhat on
natural geography. Second, there is possible room for growth in several specific tech
industries. Instrumentation manufacturing looks especially promising, because it both has
significant room for growth at Kitchener's city size and is predicted to have more
employees than it currently does. Manufacturing of aerospace parts, semiconductors and
other electronic components, pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals could be larger given
Page 38 of 79
Kitchener's city size, but do not have higher predicted than actual employment. Notably, all
of these tech fields are relatively distance -resilient. Third, there is modest growth potential
in creative industries (film and independent artists), with somewhat higher predicted than
actual employment.
Table T. Industries Kitchener Could Crow with Existing Capabilities
Page 39 of 79
More
More
Emp. at
Distance
Distance
Automation
NAICS
2021
Predicted
us
NAICS Name
90th
Resilient
Code
Emp.
Emp.
Wages
Percentile
than This %
than This
of Exports
of Industries
Electric Power
2211
Generation,
890
1604
2539
$67,950
N/A
37%
Transmission and
Distribution
Navigational,
Measuring,
3345
Electromedical,
695
998
2322
$70,770
94%
16%
and Control
Instruments
Manufacturing
Motion Picture
5121
and Video
535
652
820
$61,280
N/A
29%
Industries
Page 39 of 79
7115
Independent
Artists, Writers,
and Performers
695
710
599
$63,560
Table 2. Industries That Gould be Larger Given Kitehener's City Size
N/A
25%
NAICS
Code
NAICS Name
2021
Emp.
Predicted
Emp.
Emp. at
90th
Percentile
us
Wages
More
Distance
Distance
than This %
of Exports
More
Automation
Resilient
than This %
of Industries
Electric Power
2211
Generation,
890
1604
2539
$67,950
N/A
37%
Transmission and
Distribution
Navigational,
Measuring,
3345
Electromedical,
695
998
2322
$70,770
94%
16%
and Control
Instruments
Manufacturing
Page 40 of 79
These results are supplemented by an analysis with similar methodology to Table 1, as
applied to patents. Table 3 shows patent fields that are predicted to be larger than they
currently are in Kitchener, based on patent output in related fields. Electronics -related
technology fields feature prominently in this list, and several aerospace -related fields also
appear.
Page 41 of 79
Aerospace Product
3364
and Parts
775
262
1846
$70,620
99%
28%
Manufacturing
Semiconductor
and Other
3344
Electronic
600
506
1533
$64,390
79%
23%
Component
Manufacturing
Pharmaceutical
3254
and Medicine
585
261
1514
$64,030
100%
28%
Manufacturing
3251
Basic Chemical
150
146
908
$62,130
84%
56%
Manufacturing
Architectural,
5413
Engineering, and
5565
3604
6129
$72,910
N/A
11%
Related Services
These results are supplemented by an analysis with similar methodology to Table 1, as
applied to patents. Table 3 shows patent fields that are predicted to be larger than they
currently are in Kitchener, based on patent output in related fields. Electronics -related
technology fields feature prominently in this list, and several aerospace -related fields also
appear.
Page 41 of 79
The final concluding section interprets these empirical results in light of all the material in
this report.
Table 3. Top Patent Clusters Predicted to Be Larger in Kitchener
Patent Cluster
# Patents
Predicted # Patents
Materials, Surfaces & Electronics
210
377
Transport & Handling Devices
315
455
Power Systems & Smart Grids
99
201
Aerospace & Aviation
35
101
Advanced Photonic & Energy
Systems
56
115
Printing & Imaging Tech
107
148
Wearables & Therapeutic Devices
17
49
Page 42 of 79
Vehicle Propulsion & Control
42
70
Material Processing & Packaging
10
31
Turbines & Jet Propulsion
14
33
The Canadian economy, Kitchener included, faces significant headwinds. Wage growth has
been weak, affordability has worsened, and the onset of US tariffs presents severe
disruption to Canada's largest trade relationship.
A significant reason for Canada's tepid economic growth is its inability to sufficiently grow
its technology industries. While Canada's scientific output is impressive, it systematically
lags on business R&D and patent output. Compared to the US, Canada's economic growth
relies far more on resource industries and far less on technology -intensive industries.
Kitchener is in a unique position within Canada, however, in that its patent output is
competitive with US cities of the same size. While it is still far smaller in absolute terms
than the largest American players — such as San Francisco and New York City— it suggests
that Kitchener has a relatively healthy innovation ecosystem that could be carefully
expanded. Successfully enhancing the growth of Kitchener's tech ecosystem would in turn
substantially help to address the critical aforementioned challenges in the Canadian
economy.
Empirical analysis of specific industries with growth potential suggests a few potential
growth areas to invest in:
Medical instrumentation and devices. The empirical results show that Kitchener's
existing capabilities could support additional growth in instrumentation, and that it
can also get substantially larger at Kitchener's city size. Ageing global populations
Page 43 of 79
are Like lyto support increasing global demand for biotech and medical technology,
and thus medical instrumentation specifically could be a promising field to enter.
This especially makes sense in light of Kitchener's existing strengths in software
and electronics, which may use overlapping knowledge. Pharmaceuticals,
conversely, may be somewhat more difficult to enter given the lesser prominence of
chemical and biotech industries within Kitchener.
• Aerospace. While the aerospace industry is relatively weak in Canada as compared
to the US, changing geopolitical trends could lead to increased demand. American
foreign policy is leading Canada and other Western countries to invest more in
military production and technology, evidenced for example in increases in
Canada's defense budget; Canada applying to host a major defense development
bank for Western countries and allies; and Sweden's prospective production of
fighterjets in Canada. Kitchener has a sufficiently large labour market that it could,
in principle, support a larger aerospace industry, and several aerospace -related
patent fields are predicted to have larger output than they currently do, suggesting
that Kitchener has knowledge in related technology fields. The latter finding is
especially plausible in light of Kitchener's strengths in software, electronics, and
traditional hardware.
• Creative industries, but mainly as an amenity. Arts -related industries are
predicted to be slightly larger in Kitchener than they are presently, and have quite
modest upwards total potential given Kitchener's city size. The reality is that
creative industries function best as a source of tradable income in very large cities
with deep talent pools, such as Los Angeles, Toronto, and Vancouver. Nevertheless
a vibrant local arts scene is an important amenity that positively impacts quality of
Life, and as such this may be worth devoting a modest amount of resources to.
A number of policy interventions could be explored in order to support Kitchener's
expansion into novel industries:
• Program design in tandem with the University of Waterloo and other metro
municipalities. It would be worth reviewing both research and teaching programs at
the University of Waterloo related to medical devices and aerospace. While an
adequate supply of talent is not a sufficient condition to activate these industries, it
is arguably a necessary condition. If gaps are identified, potential funding sources
could be mapped out from private donors, the provincial government, and the
federal government.
• Participate in national -level conversations about defense spending to position
Kitchener as an investment destination. Ontario is making a bid for nearby
Toronto to host the previously -mentioned major defense development bank, which
Page 44 of 79
could have positive spillovers to Kitchener. Sweden has not yet decided where in
Canada it would produce fighter jets, and Kitchener could pitch itself as a good
Location. These are relatively rare opportunities that could significantly strengthen
Kitchener's aerospace ecosystem. Given global geopolitical trends, other
opportunities may yet arise.
• Gather detailed information on capabilities needed to enable a medical device
industry. Kitchener should endeavour to 1) talkto major medical device companies
and 2) identify and analyze cities of Kitchener's size with strong medical device
industries, both with the goal of mapping critical capabilities needed for a medical
device industry. It is plausible that the nature of the industry may require very
specific assets, such as well-equipped research hospitals to run clinical trials or
particular types of medical laboratories.
• Explore further housing policy reform. Kitchener, like much of Canada, faces a
housing supply shortage. As discussed, this has severe repercussions for the
broader economy. While a review of regulatory restrictions affecting housing supply
in Kitchener is beyond the scope of this particular report, the severity of the crisis
and its impact on the rest of the economy indicate that additional reforms should be
exhaustively investigated.
To be sure, Kitchener should proceed with caution in pursuing any novel industries. US
foreign policy has created massive global economic uncertainty, and Canada's alternative
trade partners are situated across oceans. Nevertheless its existing strengths in important
technological fields empirically suggest growth potential. Some initial steps to pursue
these opportunities are not expensive, such as reviewing and identifying relevant
capabilities, and would thus warrant action. Larger subsequent investments (e.g. building a
research hospital) could be decided on after this information has been obtained.
Page 45 of 79
24MLrJl=_
Ahuja, Ketan, Protzer, Eric, Hausman, Ricardo, and Yildirim, Muhammed. "Balancing
Competitiveness and Regional Economic Development in US Green Industrial Policy."
Conte, Maddalena, Pierre Cotterlaz, and Thierry Mayer. The CEPII gravity database. Vol. 5.
Paris: CEPII, 2022.
Delgado, Mercedes, Michael E. Porter, and Scott Stern. "Defining clusters of related
industries." Journal of Economic Geography 16.1 (2016): 1-38.
Eckert, Fabian, et al. Imputing missing values in the US Census Bureau's countybusiness
patterns. No. w26632. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020.
Felten, Edward, Manav Raj, and Robert Seamans. "Occupational, industry, andgeographic
exposure to artificial intelligence: A novel dataset and its potential uses." Strategic
Management Journal 42.12 (2021):2195-2217.
Hilber, Christian AL, and Wouter Vermeulen. "The impact of supply constraints on house
prices in England." The Economic Journal 126.591 (2016): 358-405.
Molloy, Raven, Charles G. Nathanson, and Andrew Paciorek. "Housing supply and
affordability: Evidence from rents, housing consumption and household location." Journal
of Urban Economics 129 (2022):103427.
Pierce, Justin R., and Peter K. Schott. "A concordance between ten -digit US harmonized
system codes and SIC/NAICS product classes and industries." Journal of Economic and
Social Measurement 37.1-2 (2012): 61-96.
Zabel, Jeffrey, and Maurice Dalton. "The impact of minimum lot size regulations on house
prices in Eastern Massachusetts." Regional Science and Urban Economics 41.6 (2011):
571-583.
Page 46 of 79
Technical Details of Methodology
Machine Learning Algorithm Used to Predict Industry Size
US County Business Patterns data from Eckert etal. (2020), which imputes missing values
with a very high degree of accuracy, is used to tabulate US data on employment by 4 -digit
NAICS code by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) for 2016. Census data from Statistics
Canada is used to tabulate Canadian data on employment by 4 -digit NAICS code by
Combined Statistical Area (CSA) for 2021. Small differences in 4 -digit NAICS codes are
manually harmonized. Altogether, this provides a snapshot of the composition of each
city's employment by industry in the US and Canada.
Each industry's task composition is then computed using US O*NET and OEWS data. The
former covers the set of tasks that each occupation is intensive in, and the latter covers the
occupation composition of each NAICS industry. The weighted task composition of each
industry is calculated using the wage bill of each occupation within an industry.
For each particular NAICS industry, an xgboost algorithm is trained in Python with the
specific job of predicting employment for that particular industry. It trains on data covering
every city except Kitchener, specifically reading in the log employment in a city for the ten
industries with the highest task -based similarityto the outcome industry in question. After
training, it runs a prediction for Kitchener based on Kitchener's log employment in each of
the ten most -related industries.
Looping through each industry, one at a time, yields out -of -sample predictions for log
employment by industry in Kitchener.
Measuring Employment at the 901h Percentile Given City Size
A reasonable upper limit on how big an industry can get at Kitchener's city size is computed
by running a quantile regression, for the 90th percentile, of log employment on log total city
employment plus log total city employment squared. This provides a fitted value of how big
employment can get at the 90' percentile, given the total size of Kitchener's labour market.
Page 47 of 79
Industry Filter Variables
Only tradable industries are considered, as per the list of tradable NAICS industries
computed by Porter, Delgado, and Stern (2016). They use measures such as the geographic
dispersal versus concentration of industries to identifythose which are plausibly tradable
versus non -tradable.
Industry -wide employment growth from 2011-2021 is computed using US QCEW data and
Census data from Statistics Canada.
Wage data by industry is obtained from US OEWS data.
Remote work intensivity by industry, i.e. the effective share of hours worked remotely, is
computed using microdata from the US Current Population Survey. This data was accessed
via IPUMS.
The risk of automation by NAICS industry is obtained from Felten, Raj, and Seamans
(2021). They use O*NET data on the workplace abilities used in each industry, where
several abilities (such as reading comprehension and image recognition) are highly
susceptible to automation. Thus more susceptible industries use these automatable
abilities more intensively.
The distance tolerance of goods -producing industries is calculated by first running gravity
models of trade on each HS -coded export (one regression per export), then concording
those exports to the NAICS classification system for industries. The trade regressions use
export data from the Atlas of Economic Complexity and the CEPII Gravity Database (Conte,
Cotterlaz, and Mayer 2022). The coefficient on log country -country distance is extracted
from each regression. The HS-NAICS crosswalk from Pierce and Schott (2012) is used to
convert results to NAICS.
Page 48 of 79
Figures
Figure A. 1 Venture Capital Investment per Capita by Country and Business Stage
SIXIOD
016
20M, 2D06,0 2010 2gJ.,2 2014 2016 20M 2020 2022 2006 200E 2010 2012 2014 ?,D1f 2018 ?M20 2022 2006 2003 2010 2D12 2014 2016 2MB 2020 2M
Data Sources: OECD
Figure A.2 Venture Capital Investment per Capita by City, 2019-2021
San Frandisco,
Sain Jose
Boulder
Vancouiveir
IKitchener-Caimbiriidge-Waterloo
Fre deiricton
Toronto,
Quebec Oty
Ottawa-Giatinealu
Saskatoon
IMo,ntreall
Guellph,
Calgary
Data Sources: Pitchbook
$D $5,000 $10,000, $15,000 $201,0DO $25,000 $301,000 $35,000,
Investiment per Capita ($),
Page 49 of 79
Figure A. 3 Dwellings per Capita by City, 2021
Trois-Rivi6res
Sherbrooke
Sa&
":nay
In ec
Mctoria
Thunder Bay
Kingston
Drummondville
Kelowna
Greater Sudbury
Stfd,ohn's
ifax
Saintfohn
Montreal
Peterborough
Fredericton
Moncton
Nanaimc,
St. Catharines -Niagara
Ka 5
Belleville
Landon
on
RedDeer
Ottawa -Gatineau
Saskatoon
Vancouver
Lethbridge
Winnipeg
mouton
Windsor
Chilliwack
Guelph
Hamilton
Brantford
Kitchener
Calgary
Kitchen er-Ca mbridge-Waterl oo
Barrie
Toronto
Oshawa
Abbotsford Mission
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Dwellings per Capita
Data Sources: Statistics Canada
Figure A.4 Bedrooms per Capita by City, 2021
Saguenay
St. John's
Thunder Bay
Trois-Rivieres
re I s-Rivieres
Fredericton
DrLjryirn 0 ndville
Lethbridge
Peterborough
Saint
Greater suciftry
Kamloops
Red Deer
K
Belleville ,� 1 o n
v, Ile
Sherbrooke
Kelowna
Naraimc,
St. Catharines -Niagara
Moncton
Du6bec
Halifax
Regina
Saskatoon
London
Barrie
Ottawa -Gatineau
Toronto
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
Bedrooms per Capita
Data Sources: Statistics Canada
Page 50 of 79
Figure A.5 Rooms per Capita by City, 2021
St. John's
Sa uenar
pet
e, bg
rough
Ila,
,j"gs,.,
Trois-Rivi6res
Saint John
Fredericton
St. Catharines Ni
Kelowna
Sherbrooke
Greater Sudbury
Belleville
Kamloops
bec
Lethbridge
6
Halifax
Moncton
To r id o n
Nanain o
Red Deer
Drummondville
Brantford
Re3ina
Windsor
Saskatoon
Ottawa -Gatineau
Victoria
Chilliwack
Barrie
Guelph
Hamilton
Edmonton
Oshawa
'Kitchener -Cambridge -Waterloo
Calm
n,y
M n -
Kitchener
Wniiiiipeg
Abbotsford -M ssmi
varCOLIver
Toronto
0.0 0.5 110 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Roorns per Capita
Data Sources: Statistics Canada
Figure A.6 Square Feet of Living Space per Capita by City, 2021
Barrie
Peterborough
Kelowna
London
Kingston
Oshawa
Thunder Bay
St. Catharines -Niagara
Hamilton
Guelph
Toronto
Brantford
Belleville
Greater Sudbury
Kitchener Cambridge Waterloo
Kitchener
Halifax
Windsor
Victoria
Vancouver
Abbotsford -Mission
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Sq Ft per Capita
Data Sources: Statistics Canada
Page 51 of 79
Figure A. 7 Share of Employment in Computer Science Cluster
E
E
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Regions
OM USA
IUM Canada
RM Kitchener (City)
IM Kitchener (Metro)
100,000 1,000,000
Total City Employment
Data Sources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure A. 8 Share of Employment in Electronics Cluster
81yo
6%
E
2
0-
E
w
0 4%
v
100,000 1,000,000
Total City Employment
Data Sources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Page 52 of 79
Figure A.9 Share of Employment in Biotech Cluster
10%
8%
2%
0%
100,000 1,000,000
Total City Employment
Data Sources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Figure A.10 Table of Industries in Computer Science, Electronics, and Biotech Industry
Clusters
Page 53 of 79
List of 4 -Digit NAICS Industries
Computer Science
Software Publishers; Data Processing,
Hosting, and Related Services; Other
Information Services; Computer Systems
Design and Related Services
Electronics
Computer and Peripheral Equipment
Manufacturing; Communications
Equipment Manufacturing; Audio and
Video Equipment Manufacturing;
Semiconductor and Other Electronic
Component Manufacturing; Navigational,
Measuring, Electromedical, and Control
Instruments Manufacturing; Manufacturing
and Reproducing Magnetic and Optical
Media; Aerospace Product and Parts
Manufacturing
Page 53 of 79
Biotech Pharmaceutical and Medicine
Manufacturing; Medical Equipment and
Supplies Manufacturing
Page 54 of 79
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