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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCRPS-08-109 - Ward Boundary Review - Recommended OptionReport To: Chair Vrbanovic and Members of the Finance & Corporate Services Commitee Date of Meeting: June 16, 2008 Submitted By: R. Gosse, Director of Legislated Services/City Clerk Prepared By: R. Gosse Wards}Involved: n/a Date of Report: June 11, 2008 Report No.: CRPS-08-109 Subject: WARD BOUNDARY REVIEW -RECOMMENDED OPTION RECOMMENDATION: That the Ward Boundary configuration recommended by Dr. R. Williams in his report titled, `2008 Ward Boundary Review Final Report', dated June 2008, be adopted as the ward boundaries to come into effect in 2010; and further, That a By-law be prepared for the June 23, 2008 regular Council meeting to enact the adopted ward boundaries in accordance with the Municipal Act. BACKGROUND: The Municipal Act allows a municipality to establish, re-divide or dissolve wards. The decision of Council is to be enacted by specific By-law which is then open to appeal within certain timelines. In October 2007, Council approved the terms of reference to be used for the 2008 Ward Boundary Review and, for the Request for Proposal to retain the services of a consultant to lead the review process. In January 2008, Council selected Dr. Robert Williams to lead the review process, develop options and make a final recommendation to be presented to the Finance and Corporate Services Committee. REPORT: The intent of the ward review was to undertake a completely public process under the principles and guidelines of Policy I-50 and approved terms of reference and the process to be led by an independent, experienced third party. Dr. Williams who is considered to be a leading expert in the field of municipal government and in particular ward boundaries, was selected to lead this review. The review consisted of 3 pans: 1. Fact and information gathering which included reviewing ward reviews conducted in other municipalities, reviewing Ontario Municipal Board hearings on ward boundary matters and meeting with various stakeholders such as Council, neighbourhood associations and other interested organizations. 2. Development of options for discussion based on his findings and then presentation of those options to the public through 7 open houses held throughout the City. Additionally, the options and discussion paper were posted on the City's web site allowing anyone to submit comments. 3. Reviewing the public comments received and based on the public and Council input and having regard with the criteria in Policy I-50 as well as generally accepted practices, present a final recommendation for the new ward boundaries to Council. Dr. Williams has now completed the ward review as per the aforementioned process and criteria.. Attached to this report is Dr. Williams' final report containing his recommendation for a new 10 ward system to be in place for the 2010 municipal elections. Undertaking a ward review, whether to add wards or just review the appropriateness of the existing wards, is a significant municipal undertaking. Since Councillors are elected by ward it is important that the ward be effectively designated and that communities of interest are protected and not divided. An improper process, disregard for the criteria or evidence of `gerrymandering' could cause an appeal of the by-law and a costly hearing before the Ontario Municipal Board BOMB). In considering the recommendation from Dr. Williams Council has the following options: • Accept the recommendation as presented or with minor changes; o Minor changes would be ones that still maintain the integrity of the new ward boundaries in context with the approved criteria and, are in keeping with the key principles identified by Dr. Williams. If an appeal of the by-law is submitted to the OMB, Dr. Williams could be retained to defend the by-law without compromising his position. It is staff's opinion that this decision would mitigate the chances of a successful appeal based on the facts that the process was open, public and the final decision was made with regard to generally acceptable criteria. • Accept the recommendations with major changes; o Major changes would be ones that change significantly the recommended boundary configuration and, are not in keeping with the key principles identified by Dr. Williams. If an appeal is submitted to the OMB, Dr. Williams could not defend the decision requiring that another expert be retained; adding significant costs. • Not accept the recommendation and undertake a second review; o In this case no by-law would be passed therefore no appeal submitted, however; the City would have to undertake the entire process for a second time, incurring additional costs. Although there should be sufficient time to conduct a second review, it will cause logistical problems for staff in preparing the new wards for the 2010 elections. It should be noted that the deadline for everything related to the new ward boundaries including a possible OMB hearing, would have to be completed by December 31, 2009. If a by-law is passed, within 15 days a notice will be placed in the local newspaper advising the public that anyone can submit an appeal to the OMB but must do so within 45 days of the by-law being passed . If an appeal is submitted and the OMB does not dismiss it, a hearing will take place to review the merits of the appeal and a decision will be rendered. If no appeal is submitted during the appeal period, the by-law stands and the new ward system will come into effect, the first meeting of the newly elected council in 2010. Although the wards will not come into effect until that day, the 2010 elections will be held as if the new wards were in place. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: The ward review has a budget of $35,000 and although there are outstanding invoices yet to be processed, it is anticipated that if no appeal is submitted, the project will come in under budget and unused funds will be returned to capital surplus. Should there be an appeal and Dr. Williams is retained to defend the by-law, staff believe there will be sufficient funds in the budget to cover the costs of a hearing. If there is an appeal and Dr. Williams is not or cannot be retained to defend the by-law, the City will incur costs over and above the projected budget. This would also apply should Council decide to conduct a second review. R. Gosse - Director of Legislated Services/ City Clerk City of Kitchener ZooB Ward Boabdary Review Final Report Prepared by Dr. Robert J. Williams June 2008 Introduction A new Ward System for Kitchener (set out at page 28} was developed with reference to Council Policy I-50, previous electoral systems in place in the City, electoral systems implemented in other Ontario municipalities and legal and quasi-legal precedents pertaining to electoral systems at all levels of government in Canada. A Discussion Paper was tabled in April 2008 that addressed the process, some of the constraints and other issues that emerged in the first phase of the review such as the size of Council}, Information was gathered in discussions with elected officials, stakeholders, staff, community organizations and the general public. Many people made comments on the options provided in the Discussion Paper in person and on paper at public meetings and a number of responses were submitted through the survey document posted on the Ward Boundary Review component of the City of Kitchener's website. Several City of Kitchener staff members assisted in a variety of ways related to providing data, preparing maps, organizing meetings and general logistical support. I appreciate their assistance. All of this input was reviewed and weighed in the light of the criteria that Council Policy obliges the Ward Boundary Review to respect. Needless to say, a variety of preferences and suggestions were articulated. Nevertheless, the recommended Option will not please all of those who took the time and energy to contribute to the Review. I a m sincerely g ratefu I for the involvement of all of these members of the community and I hope that my recommendation is not seen as a repudiation of their opinions and legitimate concerns that were expressed during the consultations. By definition, a single recommendation requires a choice among a number of workable and valid alternatives. I believe that this recommendation will serve Kitchener well in its future municipal elections. ,~a~ent ~. ZUillia.~d 2 Background The 2008 Ward Boundary Review Discussion Paper released in April sets out the context for this review. Three key points need to be re-stated; the full background can be found in the Discussion Paper itself. 1. Kitchener will elect ten councillors in the 2010 municipal election, an increase of four from the present ward configuration. 2. The guiding principles set by Council in Policy I-50 Ward Boundary -Criteria, as amended June 2007) will be applied in the design of a new system. 3. No ward system design can successfully meet all of the guiding principles set out in Policy I-50. The challenge is to minimize the divergence from the ideals in a recommended system. Criteria (or Guiding Principles) The recommended ward system is based upon Council Policy I- 50, as amended i n June 2007 POLICY NUMBER: I - 50 DATE: JULY 4, 1995 JUNE 11, 2007 POLICY TYPE: COUNCIL SUBJECT: WARD BOUNDARY -CRITERIA Purpose and Scope Provides the criteria and guiding principles to be considered when reviewing ward boundaries. 1. Ward boundaries will be reviewed after every second regular election. 2. Each ward will be represented by one Councillor. 3. In reviewing ward boundaries, the following principles shall be considered: a. Communities of interest and neighbourhoods should be protected. It is desirable to avoid fragmenting traditional neighbourhoods or communities of interest. b. Consideration of representation by population: To the extent possible, and bearing in mind the requirements for effective representation, voters should be equally represented and wards should have reasonably equal population totals. Given 3 the geography and varying population densities and characteristics in the City, a degree of variation is acceptable. c. Consideration of physical features as natural boundaries. Wards should be compact, contiguous shape, straightforward and easy to remember. d. Consideration of present and future population trends. The ward structure should accommodate growth for at least 12 years. 4 Evaluating the Phase Two Options Four Options were presented to the public for consideration during Phase Two see the April 2008 Discussion Paper for some of the considerations that went into developing those Options}. Each configuration provided for ten wards; two wards are identical in all Options (and in the recommended option}, Basically, there were two pairs of Options: one pair called for five wards "inside" the Conestoga Parkway and five wards "outside" the Conestoga Parkway and the other pair provided for four wards "inside" the Conestoga Parkway and six wards "outside" the Conestoga Parkway. The former pair of Options in effect over-represented the downtown; the latter pair of Options was designed to accommodate the areas where major growth is anticipated over the next several years. Based on further assessment of these Options by the consultant, and comments made by members of the public at the meetings and through the evaluation forms available on-line and at the meetings, each Option will be considered in the following section in terms of the guiding principles set out in Policy I-50. To repeat, the four criteria for guiding principles} are the following: Criterion a: "Communities of interest and neighbourhoods should be protected. It is desirable to avoid fragmenting traditional neighbourhoods or communities of interest." For this review, "community of interest" is largely understood in terms of the network of 34 Neighbourhood Associations that operate across Kitchener see the Discussion Paper for more details and a map of the Associations}. These entities are largely predicated on "grassroots" engagement and contribute to the development of neighbourhoods in the City of Kitchener. Criterion b: "Consideration of representation by population: To the extent possible, and bearing in mind the requirements for effective representation, voters should be equally represented and wards should have reasonably equal population totals. Given the geography and varying population densities and characteristics in the City, a degree of variation is acceptable." Based on data provided by the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation, population estimates for each of the 53 Planning Community were calculated by City staff based on the number and type of dwellings in the Planning Communities and these figures were used to design the Wards proposed in each Option. The individual ward figures 5 align well with the total estimated population of around 214,000 at the end of 2007. For the purpose of this Review, the optimal size for a single ward will be considered to be 21,400. Although the 2008 criteria do not specify a range of variation, a span of 25% above or below the optimal size (that is, from roughly 16,050 to 26,750} will be used to provide some sense of the success of the Option in meeting the "representation by population" criterion. A simple descriptive way to assess the degree of variation from the optimal size will be to categorize the proposed wards according to whether they are "optimal" ~5% on either side of the optimal size}, "below/above optimal" between 6 and 15% on either side of the optimal size), "well below/above optimal" between 16 and 25% on either side of the optimal size} and "outside the range" (greater than 25% on either side of the optimal size}. Criterion c: "Consideration of physical features as natural boundaries. Wards should be compact, contiguous shape, straightforward and easy to remember." The term "natural boundaries" in this Review is actually used to describe what could be termed "man made" barriers, primarily the Conestoga Parkway but also many arterial roadways. These features are considered suitable because their scale and traffic patterns tend to isolate residents who happen to live on opposite sides of the thoroughfare from one another. A roadway or other "natural boundary" where, for instance, a resident standing in front of his or her dwelling can have a conversation with a neighbour standing in front of his or her dwelling on the other side of the street is not a suitable place to draw a ward boundary. Criterion d: "Consideration of present and future population trends. The ward structure should accommodate growth for at least 12 years." Some growth in Kitchener's overall population can be anticipated between 2008 and 2020. The rate of development will depend to some extent on larger economic factors such as mortgage rates and fuel prices, as well as the policies developed by more senior governments on a variety of matters, not the least important of which is growth management. The challenge in this Review is to anticipate those areas where growth will be most significant. Intensification and redevelopment of some neighbourhoods is currently underway in many parts of the City, but early indications suggest that what might be considered "above average" growth is most likely to occur in the Bridgeport North, Grand River North, Country H it Is East, Doon South, Huron Park, Brigadoon 6 and Laurentian West Planning Communities. More modest growth is anticipated in Highland West, Pioneer Park and Grand River South. Accommodating the major growth communities is best achieved where wards with such growth areas are now below the optimal population size identified under criterion b. Supplementary Information Information compiled from mapping poll boundaries for the 2006 municipal election were transposed to the Ward Options and were included at the last minute in the April Discussion Paper as an approximation of the number of electors in each ward. Not surprisingly, the ratio of electors to total population varied from ward to ward; the highest figures tended to be in well-established communities populated largely by older adults, the lowest in newly- established neighbourhoods where many young children were included in the population count. Most of the figures provided in the Discussion paper were consistent with the expectations set out in criterion b. The figures used in the Discussion Paper, however, were actually derived from the first list of electors received from the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation early in 2006. Unfortunately, MPAC's lists of electors are notoriously inaccurate and, furthermore, Kitchener's list of electors would have been modified and corrected significantly by the time of the election in November 2006. As well, information on electors added to the list in the municipal election period in 2006 was not retained by the Clerk's Office in a fashion that could be easily adapted to establish more accurate figures for the number of electors in the proposed ward Options has presented both in April and in June}. Reluctantly, then, it has been determined that any reference to the number of electors in the Recommendation must be omitted from this Final Report because of the highly speculative nature of the available figures. "Representation by population" rather than the "equal representation of voters" will be the criterion used. As noted in the Discussion Paper, this emphasis is actually consistent with the 1991 majority judgment of the Supreme Court of Canada in the Reference re Provincial Electoral Boundaries (Saskatchewan -commonly known as the Carter decision -where it was asserted that the "purpose of the right to vote enshrined in s. 3 of the Charter is not equality of voting power per se but the right to `effective representation'." In the context of this review, this distinction can be interpreted to mean that the population of the wards is as significant as hand possibly more important than} "voter equality." In effect, as suggested in the Discussion paper, the Carter decision emphasizes the process of representation that happens 7 between elections rather than the act of voting itself that takes place on one day, now every four years in Ontario. The process of representation also takes account of all residents of the ward but the act of voting only involves eligible electors. Issues and problems dealt with by Councillors on a routine basis do not only arise from electors but from non-citizens, children and youth or newcomers to the City, none of whom would have had a vote in the previous election hand many of whom pay taxes in the municipality. The ward boundaries should therefore take account of the potential responsibilities to these residents by those who serve on Council. Of course, as was pointed out at one of the public meetings, the number of electors will matter when the 2010 municipal election rolls around -primarily to candidates who will engage in campaigning among those electors. It will also be important for the administration of that election to have an early and plausible estimate of the number of electors in the proposed new wards. However, it is simply not possible to have such information available for the present report. 8 Option A • two parallel "western" wards running from the Wilmot boundary towards downtown • three downtown wards: one on the west, another on the east and a central ward across King Street and including Victoria Park • two wards east of the Conestoga Parkway -Highway 8 • three wards in the south and southwest: one including Vanier, Alpine and Country Hills, another incorporating Pioneer Tower, Doon and Pioneer Park and the third ward everything west of Strasburg Road. 9 Evaluation Criterion a: "Community of interest" is best served when ward boundaries respect the boundaries of active neighbourhood associations. The following exceptions are noted in Option A: Forest Hill, Victoria Hills, Victoria Park, Stanley Park, Mill-Courtland, Cherry Park and Country Hills N.A.s plus Rockway N.A. inactive} are placed in more than one proposed ward. Criterion b: "Consideration of representation by population: To the extent possible, and bearing in mind the requirements for effective representation, voters should be equally represented and wards should have reasonably equal population totals. Given the geography and varying population densities and characteristics in the City, a degree of variation is acceptable." The optimal size for a single ward will be considered 21,400. Proposed wards will be assessed according to whether they are "optimal" ~5% on either side of the optimal size}, "below/above optimal" between 6 and 15% on either side of the optimal size), "well below/above optimal" between 16 and 25% on either side of the optimal size} and "outside range" greater than 25% on either side of the optimal size). For Option A, the assessment shows Ward 1 19,561 below optimal Ward 2 23,844 above optimal Ward 3 17,030 well below optimal Ward 4 14,548 outside range Ward 5 19,666 below optimal Ward 6 22,442 optimal Ward 7 26,364 well above optimal Ward 8 20,442 optimal Ward 9 19,179 below optimal Ward 10 30,713 outside range Criterion c: "Consideration of physical features as natural boundaries. Wards should be compact, contiguous shape, straightforward and easy to remember." 10 In Option A, Ward Five and Ward Six cross Victoria Street and the CNR mainline. This configuration tends act as a barrier between one part of each ward and the other. The proposed boundary between Wards Four and Five (using Weber Street} does not reflect an inherent demarcation of interests or communities. Criterion d: "Consideration of present and future population trends. The ward structure should accommodate growth for at least 12 years." This would be most likely where wards with anticipated "above average" growth areas are now at or below the optimal population size identified under criterion b. In Option A, this test brings the following results: Large Growth Present Population Planning Communities Size Ward 6 Bridgeport North, optimal Grand River North Ward 7 Country Hills East well above optimal Ward 8 Doon South, optimal Brigadoon Ward 10 Huron Park, outside range (above) Laurentian West 11 Overall Assessment: Option A Meets Comment Criterion criterion a no divides seven N.A.s criterion b no two wards outside range, two others at extreme of range criterion c yes but Victoria Street and CNR mainline bisect two wards, north side boundary of Ward Four not an inherent line of demarcation criterion d no two wards where growth anticipated already well above optimal size or outside range Conclusion: unsuitable Option A was designed conceptually to allow for up to three wards in the downtown area. In practical terms, the proposed boundaries divided too many Neighbourhood Associations. More importantly, four of the wards "inside the Parkway" were below the optimal population figure and were not likely to experience significant growth over the next twelve years. Conversely, one of the proposed wards in the high growth area was already above an acceptable range of population (indeed it was the most populous of the ten wards in this scheme} and would only get much} larger over the next few years. 12 Option B • two parallel "western" wards running from the Wilmot boundary towards downtown • three downtown wards largely based on the Community Improvement Plan area: one on the north above Victoria Street, a central ward and a southern ward divided at Stirling Avenue • two wards east of the Conestoga Parkway -Highway 8 • three wards in the south and southwest: one including Vanier, Alpine and Country Hills, another incorporating Country Hills West, Laurentian Hills and Laurentian West and the third ward everything south of Bleams Road and Fairway Road. 13 Evaluation Criterion a: "Community of interest" is best served when ward boundaries respect the boundaries of active neighbourhood associations. The following exceptions are noted in Option B: Victoria Hills (by excluding a very small area}, Mill-Courtland, Highland- Stirling, Auditorium, Stanley Park and Country Hills N.A.s plus King East N.A. inactive} are placed in more than one proposed ward. Criterion b: "Consideration of representation by population: To the extent possible, and bearing in mind the requirements for effective representation, voters should be equally represented and wards should have reasonably equal population totals. Given the geography and varying population densities and characteristics in the City, a degree of variation is acceptable." see explanation under Option A} For Option 6, the assessment shows Ward 1 23,308 above optimal Ward 2 23,844 above optimal Ward 3 14,076 outside range Ward 4 21,571 optimal Ward 5 11,850 outside range Ward 6 22,442 optimal Ward 7 26,364 well above optimal Ward 8 24,519 above optimal Ward 9 19,179 below optimal Ward 10 26,636 wel I above optima I Criterion c: "Consideration of physical features as natural boundaries. Wards should be compact, contiguous shape, straightforward and easy to remember." In Option B, Ward Six cross Victoria Street and the CNR mainline. This configuration tends act as a barrier between one section of the ward and the other. The proposed boundary between Wards Four and Five fusing Stirling Avenue} is neither natural nor obvious. It is an artificial line rather than a reflection of a genuine differentiation between one community and another. 14 Criterion d: "Consideration of present and future population trends. The ward structure should accommodate growth for at least 12 years." (see explanation under Option A~. In Option B, this test brings the following results: Large Growth Plannin Communities Present Population Size Ward 6 Bridgeport North, Grand River North optimal Ward 8 Doon South, Huron Park Brigadoon, above optimal Ward 9 Country Hills East below optimal Ward 10 Laurentian West well above o timal 15 Overall Assessment: Option B Meets Comment Criterion criterion a no divides six N.A.s criterion b no two wards outside range, two others at extreme of range criterion c yes but Victoria Street and CNR mainline bisect one ward; Stirling Avenue as a boundary between Wards Four and Five questionable criterion d no although two wards where growth anticipated are at or below optimal size, two others already above or well above optimal size Conclusion: unsuitable Option B was designed to allow for up to three wards in the downtown area, this time turning the three central wards roughly at right angles to those proposed in Option A. However, the proposed boundaries divided too many Neighbourhood Associations and Option B sets out a questionable boundary between two downtown wards. More importantly, two of the downtown wards were well outside the acceptable population range and were not likely to increase significantly enough over the next twelve years to justify a place in a new ward system. Conversely, one of the proposed wards in the high growth area on the southern fringe of the city already contained a population well above the optimal population and would only get (much} larger over the next few years. Finally, that same ward Eight} stretched across the entire City from the Gateway area to the Wilmot boundary - hardly a compact or coherent community of interest or "neighbourhood"! 16 Option C • two parallel "western" wards running from the Waterloo boundary towards the Conestoga Parkway • two downtown wards largely based on the Community Improvement Plan area using King Street as the dividing line • two wards east of the Conestoga Parkway -Highway 8 • four wards in the south and southwest: one including Vanier, Alpine, Country Hills, Country Hills East and Hidden Valley, another incorporating Pioneer Tower, Doon and Pioneer Park, a third based on Laurentian Hills and Laurentian West and the fourth ward Country Hills West and everything south of Bleams Road and west of Homer Watson, Doon Village Road and Biehn Drive, including Huron Park and Brigadoon. 17 Evaluation Criterion a: "Community of interest" is best served when ward boundaries respect the boundaries of active neighbourhood associations. The following exceptions are noted in Option C: Victoria Hills (by excluding a very small area), Stanley Park and Country Hills N.A.s are placed in more than one proposed ward. Criterion b: "Consideration of representation by population: To the extent possible, and bearing in mind the requirements for effective representation, voters should be equally represented and wards should have reasonably equal population totals. Given the geography and varying population densities and characteristics in the City, a degree of variation is acceptable." see explanation under Option A~ For Option C, the assessment shows Ward 1 23,521 above optimal Ward 2 24,162 above optimal Ward 3 21,885 optimal Ward 4 25,081 well above optimal Ward 5 22,442 optimal Ward 6 26,364 well above optimal Ward 7 19,573 below optimal Ward 8 17,970 well below optimal Ward 9 21,320 optimal Ward 10 11,471 outside range Criterion c: "Consideration of physical features as natural boundaries. Wards should be compact, contiguous shape, straightforward and easy to remember." In Option C, Wards Four and Five cross Victoria Street and the CNR mainline. This configuration tends act as a barrier within the ward. The boundary between Wards Two and Three is possibly confusing in places and Biehn Drive is an inappropriate boundary between Wards Eight and Ten since it artificially divides an existing residential neigbourhood. Country Hills West in Ward Ten is non- contiguous with the remainder of the residential areas in the Ward. 18 Criterion d: "Consideration of present and future population trends. The ward structure should accommodate growth for at least 12 years" (see explanation under Option A). In Option C, this test brings the following results: Large Growth Plannin Communities Present Population Size Ward 5 Bridgeport North, Grand River North optimal Ward 7 Country Hills East below optimal Ward 8 Doon South well below o timal Ward 9 Laurentian West o timal Ward 10 Huron Park, Bri adoon outside range (below) 19 Overall Assessment: Option C Meets Comment Criterion criterion a yes divides two N.A.s in significant manner, one to a minor degree criterion b no one ward outside range, three others at extreme of range criterion c no Victoria Street and CNR mainline bisect two wards, two boundaries possibly confusing in places, the major population cluster in Ward Ten is non- conti uous with the rest of the ward criterion d yes three wards where growth anticipated are at or below optimal size, two others well below or outside range below optimal size Conclusion: unsuitable Option C was designed to allow for anticipated growth in the south and west of the city ("outside the Parkway"}. The proposed boundaries divided two active Neighbourhood Associations and detached a small component of another. The distribution of population among the ten wards is skewed since there are four relatively large wards and two relatively under-populated wards. The proposed boundary between Wards Two and Three fusing Belmont Avenue} is unsatisfactory near the boundary with Waterloo where it divides a major business community and indeed the use of Belmont Avenue for much of the rest of the boundary may be problematic since it becomes more a residential street than an arterial roadway between Highland Road and Glen Road. Biehn Drive - proposed as a boundary between Wards Eight and Ten - is a residential street rather than arterial roadway and is therefore inappropriate. The major population cluster in the proposed Ward Ten (Country Hills West) is non-contiguous with the remainder of the residential areas in the Ward because of the Huron Business Park. In addition, the two downtown wards are divided at King Street, a feature of the present system that was deemed by some to be detrimental. Population figures for three of the proposed wards in the south and west of the city - where a large part of the residential growth is anticipated -were acceptable. One proposed Ward (Ten) is presently outside the acceptable population range for the new ward system but 20 contained two significant growth communities Huron Park and Brigadoon~. However, it is not a given that its population will actually even reach the bottom end of the acceptable population range before the municipal election scheduled for 2010. 21 Option D • one "western" ward running from the Waterloo boundary towards the Conestoga Parkway • three wards in the area between Fischer-Hallman on the west and the Conestoga Parkway on the east: one north of Victoria Street, one bounded by Victoria Street and the Canadian National spur line and a downtown ward composed of the remainder of the area • two wards east of the Conestoga Parkway -Highway 8 • four wards in the south and southwest: one including Vanier, Country Hills, Country Hills East and Hidden Valley, another Pioneer Tower, Doon and Pioneer Park, a third consisting of the Alpine, Laurentian Hills and Laurentian West communities and the fourth Laurentian West and the south west corner of the City including Huron Park and Brigadoon. 22 Evaluation Criterion a: "Community of interest" is best served when ward boundaries respect the boundaries of active neighbourhood associations. The following exceptions are noted in Option D: Victoria Park, Stanley Park, Mill-Courtland, Cherry Park, Doon-Pioneer Park Eby excluding Doon Heritage Crossroads and the Grand Valley Institution for Women} and Country Hills N.A.s plus Rockway N.A. (inactive} are placed in more than one proposed ward. Criterion b: "Consideration of representation by population: To the extent possible, and bearing in mind the requirements for effective representation, voters should be equally represented and wards should have reasonably equal population totals. Given the geography and varying population densities and characteristics in the City, a degree of variation is acceptable." see explanation under Option A} For Option D, the assessment shows Ward 1 23,521 above optimal Ward 2 23,851 above optimal Ward 3 24,803 well above optimal Ward 4 22,474 optimal Ward 5 22,442 optimal Ward 6 26,364 well above optimal Ward 7 16,773 well below optimal Ward 8 17,970 well below optimal Ward 9 16,887 well below optimal Ward 10 18,704 below optimal Criterion c: "Consideration of physical features as natural boundaries. Wards should be compact, contiguous shape, straightforward and easy to remember." In Option D, Wards Four and Five cross Victoria Street and the CNR mainline. This configuration tends act as a barrier between one part of the ward and the other. The boundary between Wards Two and Four is "clean" on paper but may not be as straightforward as others since it uses a railway line instead of a roadway. Biehn Drive is an 23 inappropriate boundary between Wards Eight and Ten since it artificially divides an existing residential neigbourhood. Criterion d: "Consideration of present and future population trends. The ward structure should accommodate growth for at least 12 years" (see explanation under Option A~. In Option D, this test brings the following results: Large Growth Planning Communities Present Population Size Ward 5 Bridgeport North, Grand River North optimal Ward 7 Country Hills East well below optimal Ward 8 Doon South well below optimal Ward 10 Brigadoon, Huron Park, Laurentian West below optimal 24 Overall Assessment: Option D Meets Comment Criterion criterion a no divides six active N.A.s criterion b no four wards above or well above optimal, four wards below or well below optimal criterion c yes but Victoria Street and CNR mainline bisect one ward, another boundary uses a minor railway line, Biehn Drive boundary unsuitable criterion d yes one ward where growth anticipated at optimal size, three others below or well below optimal size Conclusion: unsuitable In part, Option D was designed to address representation for the downtown area without using King Street as a boundary. While many praised this concept of a single ward embracing communities on both sides of King Street, others believed that the proposed Ward Four would impose an excessively onerous workload on the Councillor elected there. Others suggested that there is no inherent homogeneity in the downtown area and that attempting to put most of it in a single ward obscures many important differences that lie on either side of King Street. The proposed boundaries also divided six active Neighbourhood Associations, including three in the downtown area itself. The population distribution is not as skewed as in Option C but still reflects a wide degree of variation. The proposed boundary between Wards Two and Four (using the CNR spur lined may be undesirable because it is less evident to many people than an arterial roadway; the use of Biehn Drive as a boundary between Wards Eight and Ten is inappropriate since it splits an established residential neighbourhood. Population figures for all of the proposed wards in the south and west of the city - where a large part of the residential growth is anticipated -were acceptable. All were below or well below the optimal size at the present time but three of the four wards contain significant growth communities that will be built and occupied before the 2010 election. 25 Overall Evaluation of Phase Two Options After all of this assessment, the four options developed in Phase Two appear to be inadequate: none meets more than two of the measures of success for the Ward Review extrapolated from Policy I- 50. As noted at the beginning of this Report, no ward system design is likely to be successful meeting all of the guiding principles set out in Policy I-50. The challenge is to minimize the divergence from the ideals in a recommended system. Clearly, however, meeting only two of the four criteria at best is not grounds for moving ahead with awn rr of the four Phase Two options. At the same time, these Options generated a good deal of discussion -even dispute - at the public meetings and in the responses collected on-line and elsewhere as Kitchener residents articulated their assessments of the various features of the four Options. The opportunity for the consultant to discuss and explain the four Options also generated more insights into what the whole system might look like and how the ten component parts might be delineated. In a sense, parts of the four Phase Two options seem to embody the adage "No design is completely useless; it can always serve as a bad example." Several of the ideas that seemed - at the conceptual and even political level - to be worthwhile testing in Phase Two proved to be unworkable. Most importantly, two related features have been removed from consideration in the recommendation in the next section: a single downtown ward and a system that included five wards "inside" the Conestoga Parkway and five wards "outside" the Conestoga Parkway. The simple facts are that a coherent stand-alone downtown ward could not be designed in the light of population figures and credible "natural boundaries." Nor could five wards "inside" the Parkway be justified in terms of present and future population figures. As well, the Phase Two process made plain - or confirmed -the constraints implicit in attempting to use the four criteria concurrently. Trade-offs are inevitable -but the trade-offs will take different forms i n different contexts. For example, in the northeast corner of the City, two "natural boundaries" Victoria Street/CNR mainline and the Conestoga Parkway} could not both be incorporated in the ward system design for the simple reason that the resulting configuration could not possibly be justified in population terms. Choosing to work with the Conestoga Parkway as the priority marker of the ward perimeter in the northeast provided more workable alternatives across the entire system than would have been possible using a Victoria Street/CNR mainline boundary. 26 In other words, choosing to place a premium on one "natural boundary" while downplaying another offered a greater possibility of meeting the other criteria. A ward in the northeast that crossed the Conestoga Parkway and used the Victoria Street/CNR mainline as a boundary would have been the first step to a quite different hand, in my view, less successful) ward system for Kitchener Having made the choice to use the Conestoga Parkway as a boundary, Ottawa Street becomes the only logical place to "draw a line" on that side of the City: it is a straightforward boundary fan arterial road} and establishes two relatively coherent wards. No other "natural boundary" exists in that part of the City that would help sustain wards that were reasonably balanced in population or constituted feasible communities of interest. In other instances, however, proposed boundaries (such as those using Stirling Avenue in Option B or Biehn Drive in Options C and D) that were proposed in Phase Two in the context of meeting other criteria especially related to population figures} could be set aside since other alternatives existed that could be integrated into viable alternative configurations. The point here is that an Ottawa Street boundary was not the "top criterion" in the ward designs on that side of the City, whereas the "natural boundary" criterion could not be disregarded in the northeast. Not only can a single criterion be dealt with in different ways, the priority attached to the four criteria themselves may have to be "shuffled" in the light of evidence and experience. 27 The Recommended Option • one ~~western" ward running from the Waterloo boundary towards the Conestoga Parkway (that is, roughly north-south) • a second ward essentially consisting of the Meinzinger Park-Lakeside, Forest Hill, Victoria Hills and Westmount Planning Communities (that is, roughly north-south) • two downtown wards largely based on the Community Improvement Plan area using King Street as the dividing line • two wards east of the Conestoga Parkway -Highway 8 • four wards in the south and southwest: • one consisting of the Vanier, Country Hills, Country Hills East and Hidden Valley Planning Communities • one including Pioneer Tower, Doon, Pioneer Park, Doon South and Brigadoon Planning Communities • a third consisting of the Alpine, Laurentian Hills and Laurentian West Planning Communities • the fourth Laurentian West Planning Community and the south west corner of the City including Huron Park * NOTE: the Wards are numbered quite differently in the Recommended Option than in the four options presented in Phase Two. Please refer to the appropriate map to clarify the ward numbers when making comparisons between the Phase Two options and the Recommended Option. 28 29 Evaluation Criterion a: "Community of interest" is best served when ward boundaries respect the boundaries of active neighbourhood associations. The following exceptions are noted in the recommended Option: Victoria Hills (by excluding a small area, Stanley Park and Country Hills N.A.s are placed in more than one proposed ward. Criterion b: "Consideration of representation by population: To the extent possible, and bearing in mind the requirements for effective representation, voters should be equally represented and wards should have reasonably equal population totals. Given the geography and varying population densities and characteristics in the City, a degree of variation is acceptable." see explanation under Option A~ For the recommended Option, the assessment shows Ward 1* 22,442 optimal Ward 2 26,364 well above optimal Ward 3 16,773 well below optimal Ward 4 20,258 optimal Ward 5 16,416 well below optimal Ward 6 16,887 well below optimal Ward 7 23,521 above optimal Ward 8 23,662 above optimal Ward 9 22,385 optimal Ward 10 25,081 well above optimal Criterion c: "Consideration of physical features as natural boundaries. Wards should be compact, contiguous shape, straightforward and easy to remember." In the recommended Option, Wards One and Ten cross Victoria Street and the CNR mainline. This configuration tends act as a barrier between one part of the ward and the other. The boundary between Wards Eight and Nine appears contrived and complicated. In fact, it uses a form of "natural boundary" other than roadways for most of its length, namely parkland and greenbelts from the Homer Watson-Stirling intersection to Highland Road and 30 then along the back of the property line on the north side of Adelaide Street (east of Belmont) to the Iron Horse Trail. It then follows the Iron Horse Trail to the Waterloo boundary. Only for a short distance does it use arterial roads (Highland and Belmont. On the map, the boundary looks confusing; on the ground it primarily follows spaces that have some meaning. Criterion d: "Consideration of present and future population trends. The ward structure should accommodate growth for at least 12 years" (see explanation under Option A}. In the recommended Option, this test brings the following results: Large Growth Present Population Planning Communities Size Ward 1 Bridgeport North, optimal Grand River North Ward 3 Country Hills East well below optimal Ward 4 Doon South, optimal Brigadoon Ward 5 Huron Park, well below optimal Laurentian West 31 Overall Assessment: Recommended Option Meets Comment Criterion criterion a yes divides three active N.A.s criterion b no three wards optimal, five wards approaching extreme of range (two at top, three at bottom } criterion c yes but Victoria Street and CNR mainline bisect two wards, another boundary uses parkland and greenbelts rather than arterial roadways criterion d yes two wards where growth anticipated now at optimal size, two others well below optimal size Conclusion: suitable In terms of criterion a, this Option is much more compatible with existing Neighbourhood Association boundaries than any of the Phase Two Options. In fact, the "fit" is even better than the summary chart above suggests. First of all, none of the existing Downtown Neighbourhood Associations are divided in this arrangement. Moreover, the proposed Ward Nine/Ten arrangement maintains the present relationship between City Council and Kitchener's downtown BIA the Kitchener Downtown Business Association}. Secondly, while the proposed boundaries divide three active Neighbourhood Associations, in one case Victoria Hills) the area placed in a neighbouring ward abounded by Victoria-Patricia-Highland- Belmont} is actually a small portion of the Association's territory. Thirdly, the Stanley Park Neighbourhood Association is divided in this ward configuration. The reality, of course, is that all four of the Phase Two options also split this Association. Given the constraints and choices inherent in the ward arrangements for the northern and eastern section of the City (as discussed on pages 26 and 27}, creating a ward that would not split the Stanley Park Neighbourhood Association is virtually impossible. For one thing, it encompasses more than half of the entire area between Victoria Street, the Grand River and Highway 8 and straddles Ottawa Street in the process. The main reason that the SPNA would find itself divided in any Ward system developed in 2008, however, is based on information provided by the Association's representative at the public meeting at the Grand River 32 Recreation Complex in April. In a phrase, this particular Neighbourhood Association is too large to be incorporated in its entirety in a~ ward proposed in the 2008 Ward Boundary Review. The meeting was informed that the SPNA represents approximately 40,000 residents. If the optimal population of a ward has been assumed to be 21,400, it would be blatantly inappropriate to, in effect, draw a line around the SPNA (that is, to keep it intact} and call it a ward! This means that recognizing "community of interest" as embodied the boundaries of active neighbourhood associations is only seriously compromised in this Recommendation in the single case of the Country Hills Recreation Association. On these grounds, the Recommendation successfully meets the conditions associated with criterion a. In terms of criterion b, an ideal arrangement would see all wards very close to the optimal figure, varying by only a small percentage above or below that figure. In many jurisdictions for example the United States} this criterion predominates all others. Indeed, several versions of possible ward systems were submitted to the consultant proposing wards that contain population figures that successfully cluster fairly closely around the optimal. Unfortunately, few of the proposed wards captured recognized communities of interest in Kitchener or used "natural boundaries." In this Recommendation, however, criterion b will not systematically trump criterion a or criterion c. The distribution of population among the ten recommended wards foresees more variation than would be desirable in an ideal system. However, criterion b does recognize that "a degree of variation is acceptable" given "the geography and varying population densities and characteristics in the City." In the Recommended system, population levels above optimal are noted in wards where population densities are, for the most part, high and/or future residential development is not likely to be large. Wards with population levels below optimal are areas where population densities are inherently lower and where rapid residential development will occur. No ward population is outside the acceptable range of variance. On the summary chart (page 32}, the Recommendation was assessed as not meeting the conditions associated with criterion b. In fact, while this judgment is accurate in the narrow sense alluded to above, it may be harsher than it should be. A "qualified yes" might be a more realistic verdict. In terms of criterion c, the Recommendation addressed some concerns raised in public comments about the Phase Two options. 33 First, the problematic Biehn Drive boundary between Wards Four and Five was eliminated in favour of including the entire Brigadoon Planning Community in Ward Four. This adjustment is another case of trading off criteria; in this case an unacceptable "natural boundary" was set aside at the cost of adding population to a ward already slated to grow. The adjustment is addressed again below. The proposed boundary between Wards Eight and Nine (using a sequence of parkland areas, trails and greenbelts} is unconventional in the context of other boundaries used in this Review. However, it allows for more coherent communities of interest to be captured in those two wards. The boundary now does not split the Belmont Village shopping area, for example, and recognizes that Belmont Avenue is a residential street between Highland and Glen Roads. Finally, the Recommendation reluctantly uses King Street as a boundary between the two downtown wards. Many times in the public meetings, this dilemma was raised: should King Street not serve as the spine of a downtown ward rather than as a `frontier'? Gradually, the question changed : "can wards be successfully designed to permit the use of King Street as `a whole street'?" The larger answer to that question has been addressed elsewhere in this report: the short answer is "no". A King Street boundary is easy to comprehend, does not fragment Neighbourhood Associations and does not preclude co- operation among citizens living in that area. Despite what might be perceived by some as an imperfection, the Recommendation successfully meets the conditions associated with criterion c. In terms of criterion d, population figures for three of the proposed wards in the south and west of the city - where a large part of the residential growth is anticipated -were at a level where that growth can be absorbed without distorting the intent of criterion b. The rate of growth in the proposed Ward Four may undermine this assessment over the course of the next eight to twelve years, so it will need to be closely monitored. It is important to note also that the boundaries for Ward Four were expanded in the Recommendation to take in a major growth area ~Brigadoon} in its entirety; however, earlier wards proposed in this area were critically flawed where they used Biehn Drive as a boundary. The Recommendation successfully meets the conditions associated with criterion d. In summary, the three key features of the Recommended Option are 34 a} it accommodates anticipated growth in the south and west of the city ~"outside the Parkway"}. This aspect has already been discussed at some length. b) it provides for two downtown wards divided at King Street. This aspect has also already been discussed. c} it includes two wards in the City's northwest corner that are turned at right angles from the "traditional" ward configuration. This final idea emerged in discussions at the public meetings in April. It is an appealing innovation for Kitchener because it provides a more effective representation of "community of interest" than the long-standing arrangement of two wards running parallel to one another from the Wilmot boundary towards the centre of the City. In a number of respects, the two present wards contain an unwarranted mix of housing stock, residential density, institutional and commercial facilities, traffic patterns and more. "Community of interest" is difficult to identify in such a Ward. The traditional configuration in this part of the City - as found in Option C in Phase Two -would perpetuate a system with not one but two such amalgams. By turning the boundary at right angles, a more coherent community of interest can be identified within each ward and the differences presently submerged in each ward can be reflected in the political process. Concluding Observations A cursory glance at the map of this Report's Recommendation might provoke bewilderment, unease or dismay. As electoral maps go, Kitchener's new ward map would appear to be much more unconventional or improbable than most others. There are virtually no neat straight lines setting out the boundaries. Many wards have improbable, and in places bulging, shapes. The complexity of the settlement and land-use patterns in Kitchener, combined with issues related to "natural boundaries" as already discussed, underpin this untidy map. The reality is that Kitchener is not built around a conventional central core with concentric rings of industrial, commercial and residential development. In particular, the curious boundaries where Wards Three, Four and Five converge are not shaped by trying to juggle various residential neighbourhoods to meet the guidelines of Policy I-50. Essentially, those boundaries were developed to work around extensive areas of industrial, institutional and commercial activity that lie at the heart of this part of the City. Significant stretches of south Kitchener, in reality, have helped to shape the new ward system -and the odd ward boundaries -because no one actually lives there! 35 A final observation is necessary. One of the criteria applied in the design of this ward system relates to consideration of present and future population trends. In particular, criterion d stipulated that the ward structure "should accommodate growth for at least 12 years." Given the fact that the population of existing and future communities in the City of Kitchener used in this Report represent what was described in the April Discussion Paper as a "reasonable best guess" and given the fact that residential development is subject to a number of factors beyond the control of the municipality, it would be appropriate for Council to monitor population levels at the time of the 2010 election, in particular in Wards Three, Four and Five. Policy I-50 stipulates that ward boundaries will be reviewed after every second regular election but it does not preclude an early review - or partial review - of the boundaries recommended in this Report to ensure that the guiding principles for Kitchener's ward system are still being realized. 36