Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutDSD-2021-164 - Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2021 Annual Monitoring Report REPORT TO: Community & Infrastructure Services Committee DATE OF MEETING: October 4, 2021 SUBMITTED BY: Rosa Bustamante, Director, Planning Development Services 519-741-2200 ext. 7319 PREPARED BY: Tim Seyler, Planner 519-741-2200 ext. 7860 Tim Donegani, Senior Planner 519-741-2200 ext. 7067 WARD(S) INVOLVED: ALL DATE OF REPORT: September 23, 2021 REPORT NO.: DSD-2021-164 SUBJECT: Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2021 Annual Monitoring Report RECOMMENDATION: THAT Report DSD-2021-164 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2021 Annual Monitoring Report be submitted to the Regional Municipality of Waterloo in fulfillment of Clause 22.1 of the Administrative Agreement between the City of Kitchener and the Region regarding delegated approval authority. BACKGROUND: The purpose of this report is to provide Committee and Council with the Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2021 Annual Monitoring Report (Monitoring Report). The Monitoring Report is an action item of the 2009 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy (KGMS), which requires tracking of the general supply of land and the achievement of intensification and density targets on an annual basis. REPORT: The KGMS provides a long-term framework for planning where and how future residential and employment growth should occur in Kitchener. To ensure that growth contributes positively to quality of life, the KGMS coordinates the provision of infrastructure and services with new development. The 2009 KGMS goals and actions support the Provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan) and Regional Growth Management Strategy (RGMS). The KGMS introduced a number of goals, one of which was to develop and facilitate an ongoing growth management program to manage growth-related change in an effective and co-ordinated manner (Goal 6). One of the action items of this goal is to prepare an annual monitoring report to track the supply of development opportunities and the achievement of intensification and *** This information is available in accessible formats upon request. *** Please call 519-741-2345 or TTY 1-866-969-9994 for assistance. density targets. This is also a requirement of the Growth Plan and the Regional Official Plan. Monitoring reports have been prepared annually since 2010. The 2021 Monitoring Report (Appendix A) provides a summary and assessment of growth within the Built-up Area (intensification areas) and Designated Greenfield Area of the city over the past year (June 2020 to June 2021). Highlights of the 2021 Monitoring Report Include: Residential Development Rates in 2020 The number of new dwelling units created in 2020 (3,803) increased slightly from 2019 (3,627). This is the highest year for new units created through buildings permits in the last 30 years. 66% of the new residential units were in the form of multiple dwellings. Urban Growth Centre (UGC) Density The estimated density of the Urban Growth Centre (UGC) is 212 residents and jobs per hectare. Kitchener continues to be well on its way to achieving the Official Plan minimum target of 225 residents and jobs per hectare by 2031. Built Up Area and Designated Greenfield Area Development (June 2020 and June 2021) The intensification level over the past year (new residential construction that occurs within the Built-up Area) is 67%. This intensification level is second only to the 75% intensification rate achieved in the last reporting period. Although the total number units increased this year compared to last, there were fewer units within the Built-up Area this year than last. Over the next several years, it is expected that the intensification level will decrease as d Area (i.e. newer subdivision areas) build -year average intensification level is 56%, which exceeds Region of . This continues to be an indication that the City is on track to contribute towards, and in some years exceed, the Region-wide minimum intensification target. Building permits issued for new residential units between June 2020 and June 2021 within the Designated Greenfield Area continue to provide a varied and balanced supply of dwelling types. The number of multiple dwelling building permits issued in the Built-Up Area far exceed those that were issued within the Designated Greenfield Area. This is expected as higher density developments are focused in intensification areas identified on the Urban Structure. The number of new duplex units has increased rapidly in recent years up to 370 during this reporting period. No permits were issues for Detached Additional Dwelling Units (also referred to as backyard homes) in June-June reporting period - the first backyard home permits were issued in August 2021. Staff will report on the number of new backyard homes next year. Capacity for Growth The City continues to have the potential to accommodate its current allocated population and employment growth within its urban area. Growth Management Program program, including the strategy, framework and dynamic tracking and monitoring system, will be updated in future years l Plan following the completion of their Official Plan Review (currently underway); and, next Official Plan review which will follow. Progress towards minimum density targets for Major Transit Station Areas (MTSAs) will be a key component of a revised growth monitoring program. This report includes interim density estimates for the MTSAs. Most are well bellow their expected 60 residents and jobs per hectare minimum density target. In conclusion, the 2021 Monitoring Report demonstrates that Kitchener continues to be well positioned to accommodate growth, achieve identified targets, and meet Provincial and Regional requirements. STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT: Delivery of Core Services FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: There are no new or additional capital budget requests with this recommendation. COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT: INFORM Council / Committee meeting. In addition, growth monitoring report information was shared with the Waterloo Region Home Builders Kitchener Development Liaison Committee ahead of this meeting. PREVIOUS REPORTS/AUTHORITIES: DSD-20-157 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy Annual Monitoring Reports 2020 DSD-19-206 Kitchener Growth Management Plan 2019-2021 DTS-09-011 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2010-2019 Annual Monitoring Reports and Biennial Plans available at https://www.kitchener.ca/en/strategic-plans-and-projects/growth-management.aspx ACKNOWLEDGED BY: Justin Readman - General Manager, Development Services ATTACHMENTS: Attachment A Kitchener Growth Management Strategy (KGMS) Annual Monitoring Report 2021 Attachment A to DSD-2021-164 Kitchener Growth Management Strategy 2021 Annual Monitoring Report October 4, 2021 Executive Summary In 2009, Kitchener approved its Growth Management Strategy (KGMS) in support of the Cityexpected and planned to accommodate a relatively significant amount of residential and employment growth by 2031. The City is also mandated by the Province to achieve certain numerical targets and other planning objectives. Kitchener tracks and monitors specific growth data in a dynamic manner. A snapshot of the data is contained within this report. All of the goals and action items of the KGMS have now been completed and the results of the 2020 growth management data continue to be encouraging. The number of residents and jobs per hectare (RJs/ha) in the Urban Growth Centre (Downtown) is 212 RJs/ha, surpassing the provincially mandated target of 200 RJs/ha by 2031, and approaching the higher Official Plan minimum target of 225 RJs/ha by 2031-year average intensification level of 56% exceed the Regional intensification target (45%). In 2020, building permits were issued for a total of 3,803 new residential units a slight increase from 2019, and the highest year for new units in the last 30 years. 66% of new residential units developed were in the form of multiple dwellings. framework and dynamic tracking and monitoring system, will be updated in future years to reflect: recent changes to provincial legislation; Official Plan following the completion of their Official Plan Review (currently underway) 1.Introduction In 2009, Kitchener approved its Growth Management Strategy (KGMS). The KGMS provides a framework for planning where and how future residential and employment growth can be accommodated in Kitchener while positively contributing to our quality of life. The goals and actions outlined in the KGMS support A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2020) and the Regional Growth Management Strategy (RGMS). The KGMS introduced an ongoing growth management program to manage growth-related change in an effective and coordinated manner (Goal 6). One of the action items of this goal is to prepare an Annual Growth Management Monitoring Report to track the supply of development opportunities and the achievement of intensification and density targets. Monitoring Reports have been prepared and presented to Council and the development industry annually since 2010. The Monitoring report provides an update on the progress of implementing the KGMS action items along with Provincial and Regional growth plans. The primary purpose of the Monitoring Report is to update data from the KGMS Background Study: Current Baseline Report (Parts 6-9) annually. It presents a summary of recent residential development rates and updates the potential capacity to accommodate growth both within the Built-up Area (intensification areas) and in the Designated Greenfield Area. The original data from the KGMS Background Study was as of June 16, 2008 (with some of the existing residential data at the time coming from the 2006 Census). The monitoring report also provides a summary of development applications that have been received and those that have been approved in 2020. This monitoring report captures a snapshot of all data (with the exception of Sections 2 and 3) as of June 16, 2021 (the anniversary date of the 2006 Growth Plan). 2.Delegated Approval Authority Summary for 2020 This section provides a summary of the number of plans of subdivision, plans of condominium, part-lot control applications, and consent applications received and the number and type of dwelling units (herein after referred to as units) approved through these applications in 2020. Reporting on those approvals is a requirement of an agreement between the City of Kitchener and the Region of Waterloo regarding delegated approval authority. Figure 1 includes the number of applications received, approved and registered in 2020. Figure 1: 2020 Development Applications Received, Approved and Registered Combination of Combination of Multiple Residential, Application # of Singles, Semis or Cluster Townhouse Type Applications Street Fronting Units, Commercial and Townhouse Units Mixed Use Developments Received Applications Subdivision 0 0 0 Condominium 8 14 555 Part Lot Control 6 Consents 49 Total 63 14 555 Approved Lots/Units Subdivision 0 0 0 Condominium 8 14 555 Part Lot Control 6 184 0 Consents 49 66 20 Total 63 264 575 Registered Lots/Units Subdivision 8 606 55 Condominium 20 0 564 Total 28 606 619 * -- 84 6 4986 6615695695651 Total 20 --- 5520 /CT 555555564 20 to Multiple * 6 49 16 -- 084 141466 6061 SST - 708071 536632 Total 2,8181,333 registered from 20 9 -- 1236 CT 746422632 201 2,818 Multiple/ 7* 80 --- 5835 587114122 SST 9 1366 680688389655136 Total 2,635 Dwelling 8 - 4 75 CT 729171594389641 201 Multiple/ 66 13* - 96 941414 509 SST 1,906 - 32 19*33* 284283603695532371 Total Multiple, Cluster Townhouse --- 6 CT 222583675526 2017 Multiple/ 19*33* - 6 62202023 283371 SST 24 25*48* 142449633384673924145 Total 85 5** /CT 124186232384615897 Subdivision, Condominium, Part Lot Control, and Consent Applications Received, Approved and Registered2016 Multiple 20 25*48* 20 - - 6 1858276027 263401 SST Figure 2: 201 Single, Semi, Street Townhouse Dwelling; Multiple/CT . bdivisions Consents 20 Su Condominiums Part Lot Control Figure 2 compares the number of subdivision, condominium, part lot control, and consent applications received, approved and 20 ReceivedDraft ApprovedRegisteredReceivedDraft ApprovedRegisteredReceived ApprovedReceivedApprovedSST *Total number of applications received**Total number of multiple blocks approved 3. Residential Development Rates This section provides an overview of past development rates in the City through the examination of building permits for new residential units by dwelling type. Figure 3: Residential Development Rates New Residential Dwelling Units Created Through Building Permit* 5-year 10-year 20-year Average Average Average Dwelling Type 2019 2020 (2016-2020) (2011-2020) (2001-2020) Single Detached* 342 605 477 483 635 Semi-Detached* 33 61 34 28 53 Duplex** 212 343 176 102 62 Townhouses 340 276 225 194 192 Multiple Dwellings*** 2,745 2,517 1,569 1,069 674 Total New Units 3,672 3,803 2,520 2,007 1,786 *Gross new units (conversion/additions included, demolitions not subtracted) **Includes additions that create new units ***Includes additions that create new units and stacked townhouses In 2020, building permits were issued for a total of 3,803 new residential units. This is a slight increase from 2019 and is the highest annual number of new units created through building permits in the last 30 years. 66% of new residential units developed in 2020 were in the form of multiple dwellings. In 2020, the rate of development for all dwelling types was above average. The rate of increase in new duplexes compared to historical averages is the most significant. The development of this form of ground-oriented rental housing is important to achieve gentle intensification and complete objectives. New multiple dwelling construction in Downtown Kitchener 4. Intensification Level the region-wide target of a minimum of 45% of all new residential development to be located within the Built-up Area (BUA). Map 1 (DGA) and the Province in 2006). It also shows the location of new units created within these areas between June 16, 2020 and June 15, 2021. The minimum intensification target is subject to change through the ongoing Regional Official Plan review. Map 1 Current Benchmarks Intesification Levels The most recent measures of new residential units by type in the BUA and DGA are indicated in Figure 4 below. Figure 4: Intensification and Designated Greenfield Area Development Levels (June 16/20- June 15/21) Designated Greenfield Area Built-Up Area Dwelling Type (New Residential Units) (New Residential Units) Total Single Detached 568 37 605 Semi-Detached 14 16 30 Duplex 135 235 370 Street Townhouses 190 82 272 Cluster Townhouses 0 0 0 Multiple Dwellings* 356 2,161 2,517 1,263 2,531 3,794 Total Percent of Total 33% 67% 100% ΫLƓĭƌǒķĻƭ ķǞĻƌƌźƓŭ ǒƓźƷƭ ǞźƷŷźƓ ƒźǣĻķ ǒƭĻ ĬǒźƌķźƓŭƭ The intensification level over the past year (new residential construction that occurs within the Built-up Area) was 67%. This level is second only to the 75% rate achieved in the previous reporting period (2019-2020). This continues to indicate that the City is on track to contribute towards, and in some years exceed, the minimum region-wide intensification target. 2020 figures include some projects within the UGC that were exempted from paying Development Charges. This exemption accelerated development rates in UGC for a few years. However, long-term averages are likely a better indication of ongoing trends. As we have seen in recent years, when there is a substantial number of multiple dwelling units created in the Built Up Area, in the coming years, it is expected that the intensification rate may be lower in future years. Current Greenfield Subdivision under construction Figure 5 illustrates the historic intensification levels, as per the Provincial Built Boundary Line. Figure 5: Intensification Level (2001 to present) 80 70 60 ) % 50 ( l e v 40 e L n 30 o i t a 20 c i f i s 10 n e t 0 n I Year , 2020, 2021 the BUA intensification level as the timing of 2-3 multiple dwelling developments can affect the reported rate in a given year for a municipality the size of Kitchener. A multi-year average provides a better understanding, for growth monitoring purposes, of whether the City is on track to achieving the required intensification level. Figure 6 below illustrates the 5-year average intensification levels from June 2006 to June 2021. Figure 6: 5 Year Average Intensification Levels Year 5 Year Average Intensification Level (%) June 2006 - June 2011 41 June 2011 - June 2016 46 June 2016 - June 2021 56 The 5-year average Intensification Level (June 2016 June 2021) is now at 56% with the 10- year average (2011-2021) slightly lower at 51%. 5. Intensification Areas Existing Measures and Additional Capacity for New Growth Existing Measures Figure 7 quantifies the existing number of dwelling units, residents, jobs and density measure (residents and jobs per hectare) for the currently identified Intensification Areas within the BUA. Figure 7: Existing Measures for Current Intensification Areas Non- Land Residential Residents Intensification Area Area Units Residents Jobs Floor + Jobs/ha (Ha) Space (m2) Urban Growth Centre 107 4,689 7,521 841,264 15,233 212 Primary Node 115 1,512 2,723 106,587 3,500 69 Mixed Use Nodes 294 4,074 7,346 214,254 6,167 42 Mixed Use Corridors 123 2,373 4,468 197,921 6,668 103 Neighbourhood Mixed 46 163 413 10,693 1,826 52 Use Centres Comprehensive 27 411 938 126,982 299 76 Development Areas Subtotal of 712 13,222 23,409 1,497,971 33,693 Intensification Areas Site Specific Intensification 1,127 2,202 721,485 7,675 53 Opportunities Grand Total 14,349 25,611 2,219,456 41,368 *Outside of the Urban Growth Centre, population estimates are based on City and MPAC land use data and census persons per unit estimates. Jobs estimates are based on business directory data or MPAC floor area and jobs per unit floor area assumptions. UGC data is provided by the Region based on census, building permit and workplace count statistics. The estimated density of the Urban Growth Centre (UGC) is 212 RJs/ha in 2021. These figures have not been adjusted to account for changes in office and work from home trends brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. The extent to which pandemic-related changes will continue in the long term is uncertain. Nevertheless, interest in residential development within the UGC has remained robust during the pandemic period. Capacity for New Growth Figure 8 explores the estimated potential for accommodating new development within each of the intensification areas based on the existing zoning only. 50% Scenario The maximum amount of development permitted in the as-of-right zoning represents the C total capacity to accommodate growth given current planning tools. It is anticipated that only some parcels within intensification areas will be redeveloped within the short or medium term for a variety of reasons. Some parcels well be developed at lower densities than the maximum permitted by zoning. Still others will receive zoning by-law amendments to exceed these maximums. In order to account for these factors, this report evaluates 50% of the maximum permitted by zoning as a reasonable estimate or proxy of opportunities for growth. Figure 8: Additional Capacity Measures for Current Intensification Areas Non- Residential Floor Residents Intensification Areas Area (Ha) Units Residents Space(m2) Jobs + Jobs/ha Urban Growth Centre 107 1,914 3,416 237,209 9,646 122 Primary Node 115 444 906 7,894 789 17 Mixed Use Nodes 294 2,586 5,153 42,517 2,374 25 Mixed Use Corridors 123 4,690 8,829 305,489 9,237 114 Neighbourhood Mixed 46 13 25 2,162 23 1 Use Centres Comprehensive 27 103 269 2,199 273 29 Development Areas Subtotal of 712 9,750 18,598 597,470 22,324 Intensification Areas Site Specific Intensification 2,446 4,389 57,077 1580 33 Opportunities Grand Total 12,196 22,987 654,547 23,922 *Some data reported utilizes MPAC data which has limitations (i.e. non-residential building floor space). Buildings and sites within the Urban Intensification Areas are well positioned with existing land use, density, design approvals and amenities in place which support future intensification capacity. New development applications and updates to the zoning in these areas as a result of the Comprehensive Review of the Zoning By-law (CRoZBy), Planning Around Rapid Transit Stations (PARTS), and neighbourhood specific planning reviews will continue to refine the planning framework and add to the capacity to accommodate growth in these areas. Figure 9 provides an account of the total number of dwelling units, residents, non-residential floor space and jobs that could result at build-out of the Intensification Areas. Figure 9: Total Measures (Existing + Additional Capacity) for Current Intensification Areas Non- Residential Intensification Area Floor Residents Areas (Ha) Units Residents Space(m2) Jobs + Jobs/ha Urban Growth Centre 107 6,603 10,937 1,078,473 24,879 334 Primary Node 115 1,956 3,629 114,481 4,289 86 Mixed Use Nodes 294 6,660 12,499 256,771 8,541 67 Mixed Use Corridors 123 7,063 13,297 503,410 15,905 217 Neighbourhood Mixed Use Centres 46 176 437 12,855 1,848 52 Comprehensive Development Areas 27 514 1,207 129,181 572 105 Subtotal of Intensification Areas 712 22,972 42,006 2,095,171 56,034 Site Specific Intensification Opportunities 3,573 6,591 787,500 9,419 86 Grand Total 26,545 48,597 2,882,671 65,453 Given the additional opportunities for redevelopment, based on existing zoning, there is capacity and potential to achieve An example of current downtown intensification 6. Estimated Land Supply The estimated land supply for Kitchener is a total of the potential capacity within the BUA and the DGA. As development moves from raw land through the development approvals stage and eventually to construction, the land supply estimates become more accurate. 6.1 Potential Built-up Area Supply The Built-up Area land supply includes lands within the Built Boundary Line that are within intensification areas, are site specific intensification opportunities, include a minor intensification factor within existing communities (community interiors) and the potential supply from registered, draft approved and in-circulation subdivisions. Figure 10: Estimated Built-up Area Supply (capacity of intensification lands inside the Built Boundary) Non-Res. Intensification Area Units Residents Jobs Space (m²)* Urban Growth Centre 1,911 3,416 237,209 9,646 Primary Node 444 906 7,894 789 Mixed Use Nodes** 2,586 5,153 42,517 2,374 Mixed Use Corridors 4,690 8,829 305,489 9,237 Neighbourhood Mixed Use Centres 13 25 2,162 23 Comprehensive Development Areas 103 269 2,199 273 Subtotal of Intensification Areas 9,747 18,598 597,470 22,342 Site Specific Intensification Opportunities 2,446 4,389 57,077 1,580 Total Potential Supply of Current 12,193 22,987 654,547 23,922 Intensification Areas Community Interiors 500 1,274 0 35 Registered (Vacant Land Inventory) 313 686 79,782 1,438 Draft Approved 109 295 0 0 In Circulation 0 0 0 0 Other Designated 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 1,005 2,443 215,688 3,263 Total Potential Supply (Current Zoning) 13,198 25,430 870,235 27,185 *Some data reported utilizes MPAC data which has limitations (i.e. non-residential building floor space). **Does not include Lackner/Fairway Mixed Use Node which is in the Designated Greenfield Area. -up Area land supply includes a potential capacity of approximately 13,198 dwelling units and under 900 thousand square metres of non-residential floor space. 6.2 Potential Designated Greenfield Area Supply The potential Designated Greenfield Area (DGA) land supply includes all lands outside the Built Boundary Line that are desig become more refined as land parcels within this area move through the development approval process. The dwelling unit numbers are primarily based on maximums for blocks of land that have a range of units. Similar to Figure 10, the DGA land supply includes intensification areas, site specific intensification opportunities, lands which have been designated in the Official Plan but do not currently have development applications (e.g. portions of the Rosenberg Community) and the potential supply from registered, draft approved and in-circulation subdivisions. Figure 11: Estimated Designated Greenfield Area Supply (lands outside the Built Boundary) Non-Res. Floor 2 Greenfield Location Units Residents Space (m) Jobs 240 430 57,100 1,180 Intensification Areas* Site Specific Intensification Opportunities 0 0 8,988 164 Other Designated Lands** 5,780 13,180 112,954 6,016 Registered (Vacant Land Inventory) 2,486 6,236 21,104 518 Draft Approved 6,015 13,456 24,300 168 In Circulation 4,695 11,824 24,300 168 Total*** 19,216 45,126 248,746 8,214 *Includes Lackner/Fairway Mixed Use Node (outside Built Boundary Line) ** Using 55 residents+jobs/hectare assumption. Lands are net Provincial constraints only. No Hidden Valley Community included. Includes Rosenberg lands without a development application, based on densities in the Rosenberg Secondary Plan. ***Does not include any additional lands added in the Region Official Plan and City Official Plan to the City Urban Area (i.e Dundee North). Once the land use designations are considered, the DGA supply estimates will be updated. Figure 11 illu includes a potential capacity of approximately 19,000 residential units and 250,000 square metres of non-residential floor space. 6.3 Estimated Total Supply When combined, the potential land supply of both the BUA and DGA provides a total estimate for residential and employment land in Kitchener. Figure 12: Estimated Total Supply: Built-up Area and Designated Greenfield Area Non-Res. Space Location Units Residents Jobs (m²) Built-up Area (BUA) 13,198 25,430 870,235 27,185 Designated Greenfield 19,216 45,126 248,746 8,214 Area (DGA) Total 32,414 70,556 1,118,981 35,399 The estimated supply of dwelling units has decreased in the BUA and DGA from June 2020. The total supply of dwelling units and jobs is expected to eventually decrease as development The timing of development from the estimated supply of units is influenced by many factors including infrastructure timing, land owner priorities and market forces. As previously discussed throughout this report, the estimated land supply for Kitchener is based 1994 Official Plan and zoning at the time of the preparation of the KGMS in 2009. It does not include any additional lands added in does it include the intens Official Plan. Once urban land use designations are assigned to the additional DGA lands, the DGA supply estimates will be updated. In addition, once updates to zoning in the intensification areas have been completed and are in effect through the Comprehensive Review of the Zoning By-law (CRoZBy), Planning Around Rapid Transit Stations (PARTS) project, and neighbourhood specific planning reviews, the supply numbers for the BUA will also be updated. 7. Current Capacity for Growth This section compares the current population and employment capacity with the population and employment allocations provided by the Region of Waterloo. Figure 13: Population Allocation vs. Estimated Capacity Population Employment Existing 268,404* 104,775* Capacity 70,556 35,399 Total 338,960 140,174 2031 Growth Allocation 319,500 132,500 Difference 19,460 7,674 *Unofficial interim population estimate as of mid-year 2021, Region 2020 mid-year population estimated by the Region is now 268,000 approximately 6,000 more people than reported mid-year 2020. Figure 13 estimates that the City has an existing supply/capacity of developable land within the BUA and DGA that can accommodate more residents and jobs than the 2031 population and employment allocation from the Region. Maintaining capacity beyond these forecasts is important to meet the housing and employment needs of our growing community because not all sites within intensification area will be redeveloped within the 2031 planning horizon. 8. A Place to Grow Implementation On May 16, 2019 a new Growth Plan (A Place to Grow) came into effect which, among other things, provides for revised intensification levels and density targets. A Place to Grow was amended in 2020. The new targets will come into effect upon completion of the Regional Official Plan review, currently underway. It is expected that the growth management strategy and framework as well as the annual monitoring report may be revised following the Region Official . Growth Forecasts In response to previous Provincial growth forecasts (and Regional allocation thereof), the City developed background information in support of the KGMS that analyzes the growth capacity of various areas of the city. As indicated in Section 7.0 of this report, Kitchener has the capacity to accommodate the allocated growth into appropriate areas. The Province continues to update long-term growth forecast scenarios for the Greater Golden the allocations of these forecasts within local Official Plans. At such time as the Region of Waterloo amends their Plan to identify any different/further allocation of the forecasts for Kitchener, an update to the growth management assessment and the Kitchener Official Plan may be required. Urban Growth Centre The 2006 Growth Plan required that the Downtown Kitchener Urban Growth Centre be planned to achieve a minimum density of 200 RJs/ha by 2031. T this target at 225 RJs/ha by 2031. The present density is 212 RJs/ha. The UGC has now exceeded the provincial minimum target and, with additional intensification projects currently happening or proposed in the UGC, the City is well positioned to meet and likely exceed the Official Plan minimum density target before 2031. To UGCs outside of the City of Toronto have achieved their 2031 Provincial minimum density targets. Higher density targets and a revised timeframe may be established by the Region through the Regional Official Plan Review. Intensification The 2006 Growth Plan required that 40% of residential development be directed to the BUA by 2015. The target within the Regional Official Plan is a minimum of 45% of all new residential development to be located within the BUA. The 2020 Growth Plan has a higher intensification level target and determining how to implement the target in our region is being considered as To monitor new development, the City has a dynamic system that tracks building permit issuance for new residential units inside and outside the Built Boundary Line. The most recent intensification level over a one-year period was 67% while the five-year average intensification level is now at 56%. As indicated in Section 4.0, a multi-year average provides a better understanding, for monitoring purposes, of whether the City is on track to achieving the required intensification level. Designated Greenfield Area Densities The Growth Plan mandates that future development within the Designated Greenfield Area should achieve specific, transit-supportive density targets. Based on the 2006 Growth Plan, to per hectare for the entire Designated Greenfield Area shown in the Regional Official Plan, is 55 residents and jobs per hectare in greenfield areas (residential subdivisions) This same target applies to other urban areas within the Region. Kitchener is well positioned to meet this target. There are several plans of subdivision that are in areas served, or will be served, by transit that meet or exceed target. The Kitchener Growth Management Plan (KGMP) provides a tool for identifying and tracking the Designated Greenfield Area density. Planning Principles Planning a city is not just about achieving certain numerical targets. The majority of the Growth Plan includes policy direction to achieve healthy and complete communities. Kitchener has long been a leader in promoting walkable, transit- continue to revitalize the Urban Growth Centre, clean up brownfield sites and achieve mixed use developments that are pedestrian-oriented are significant. Planning for a full range and mixing mix of housing to meet the needs of households in all stages of their lives is also critical. We are further striving to enhance the linkages between land use planning and other community considerations such as transportation options, community infrastructure, social dynamics, economics and environmental conservation. Ultimately, the goal is to help achieve a higher quality of life in a complete and healthy community. 9. Regional Growth Management Strategy Implementation The goals outlined in the Regional Growth Management Strategy (RGMS), are largely reflected in the goals of the KGMS. 10. Kitchener Growth Management Strategy Implementation The KGMS encompasses six goals that facilitate managing growth and development within the City of Kitchener. These goals support the RGMS and have been adapted to the City of Kitchener context. All of the objectives, initiatives and recommendations of the KGMS have now been completed in the past 11 years, with the most recent achieved in the delivery of the new urban design manual in September 2019. Kitchener Growth Management Plan The Kitchener Growth Management Plan (KGMP) is an evolution of the former Staging of Development program and is used as a tool to assist with the implementation of the KGMS. The KGMP establishes priority levels for development and infrastructure projects for each growth area within the City. It includes the prioritization and allocation of resources towards completing initiatives that are required to move lands from the draft approval stage to registration, construction and developing complete communities. The current KGMP (2019-2021+) was adopted by City Council in November 2019. The next KGMP for 2021-2023+ is expected to be delivered in early 2022. 11. Future of Growth Management Program This is the 12th edition of the annual growth monitoring report, and it has remained largely unchanged since the first version.. This report tracks development and capacity in Intensification Areas and Designated Greenfield Areas Established in the 1994 Official Plan. This report does not include statistics for the Major Transit Station Areas (MTSAs) and many other intensification areas that were fficial Plan. I and dynamic tracking and monitoring system, will be updated in future years to reflect: recent changes to provincial legislation; updates to the of their Official Plan Revi review which will follow. Major Transition Station Areas (MTSAs) are key intensification areas that are identified in the through contemporary planning efforts. Many of the MTSA geographies partially overlap with the intensification areas that are included in the Kitchener Growth Monitoring framework. Given the importance of MTSAs, this report provides some initial findings regarding the existing densities in Major Transit Station Areas around the existing and planned ION Light Rail network. As background to the Regional Official Plan review, the Region prepared an Intensification Strategy Technical Brief (2021) to understand the current density and opportunities within MTSAs. Their methodology is not comparable to the one used in the Kitchener Growth Management Framework. 2019 estimates of residents, jobs and density are shown in Figure 14 and are based on draft MTSA boundaries that have yet to be finalized Official Plan. Figure 14 indicates that Victoria Park + Kitchener City Hall already exceeds the Growth Plan minimum density target of 160 residents and jobs per hectare. The existing density of most other MTSAs is well under this target. in Downtown and in Central Neighborhoods must, among other things, ensure the City is planning to meet or exceed these minimum density targets. The City may set a higher minimum intensification target for some MTSAs (as the City has done for the UGC density target). Figure 14: Existing Measures and Draft Targets for Major Transit Station Areas Draft Min Existing Density Residents Target Intensification Existing Existing Existing + Jobs/ha Residents Areas Area (ha) People (2019) Jobs (2019) (2019) + Jobs/ha Grand River 160 87 2,743 4, 015 78 Hospital Central Station 160 Innovation 95 2,912 4,073 74 District Victoria Park+ 160 Kitchener City 56 3,664 6,320 178 Hall Fredrick + Queen 160 59 2,781 5,699 145 Kitchener Market 160 61 2,681 1,081 61 Borden 160 54 1,008 1,381 44 Mill 160 105 2,442 1,141 34 Block Line 80 116 2,898 2,094 43 Fairway 160 107 6,276 3,408 91 Sportsworld 160 100 550 3,358 39 *This methodology to calculate existing and R+J/ha is not comparable to that used in the Kitchener Growth Management Framework.